mode laci on
DESCRIPTION
modelacion de ecologia 1TRANSCRIPT
Midyear Population and Density for Region SummaryRegion Country Year Population Area (sq. k Density (persons per sq. km.)Custom Region Brazil 1950 53443075 8459417 6.3Custom Region Brazil 1951 54973775 8459417 6.5Custom Region Brazil 1952 56557783 8459417 6.7Custom Region Brazil 1953 58197231 8459417 6.9Custom Region Brazil 1954 59894345 8459417 7.1Custom Region Brazil 1955 61651450 8459417 7.3Custom Region Brazil 1956 63481099 8459417 7.5Custom Region Brazil 1957 65369855 8459417 7.7Custom Region Brazil 1958 67319772 8459417 8Custom Region Brazil 1959 69332977 8459417 8.2Custom Region Brazil 1960 71411679 8459417 8.4Custom Region Brazil 1961 73512233 8459417 8.7Custom Region Brazil 1962 75679187 8459417 8.9Custom Region Brazil 1963 77914771 8459417 9.2Custom Region Brazil 1964 80221304 8459417 9.5Custom Region Brazil 1965 82601179 8459417 9.8Custom Region Brazil 1966 85017480 8459417 10.1Custom Region Brazil 1967 87459519 8459417 10.3Custom Region Brazil 1968 89926300 8459417 10.6Custom Region Brazil 1969 92416817 8459417 10.9Custom Region Brazil 1970 94930053 8459417 11.2
Density (persons per sq. km.)
Midyear Population and Density for Region SummaryRegion Country Year Population Area (sq. k Density (persons per sq. km.)Custom Region Brazil 1971 97350239 8459417 11.5Custom Region Brazil 1972 99800740 8459417 11.8Custom Region Brazil 1973 1.02E+08 8459417 12.1Custom Region Brazil 1974 1.05E+08 8459417 12.4Custom Region Brazil 1975 1.07E+08 8459417 12.7Custom Region Brazil 1976 1.1E+08 8459417 13Custom Region Brazil 1977 1.13E+08 8459417 13.3Custom Region Brazil 1978 1.15E+08 8459417 13.6Custom Region Brazil 1979 1.18E+08 8459417 14Custom Region Brazil 1980 1.21E+08 8459417 14.3Custom Region Brazil 1981 1.24E+08 8459417 14.7Custom Region Brazil 1982 1.27E+08 8459417 15Custom Region Brazil 1983 1.3E+08 8459417 15.3Custom Region Brazil 1984 1.33E+08 8459417 15.7Custom Region Brazil 1985 1.36E+08 8459417 16Custom Region Brazil 1986 1.39E+08 8459417 16.4Custom Region Brazil 1987 1.41E+08 8459417 16.7Custom Region Brazil 1988 1.44E+08 8459417 17Custom Region Brazil 1989 1.47E+08 8459417 17.4Custom Region Brazil 1990 1.49E+08 8459417 17.7
Density (persons per sq. km.)
Midyear Population and Density for Region SummaryRegion Country Year Population Area (sq. kCustom Region Brazil 1991 151944196 8459417Custom Region Brazil 1992 154460821 8459417Custom Region Brazil 1993 156963840 8459417Custom Region Brazil 1994 159448367 8459417Custom Region Brazil 1995 161911449 8459417Custom Region Brazil 1996 164369473 8459417Custom Region Brazil 1997 166840211 8459417Custom Region Brazil 1998 169322084 8459417Custom Region Brazil 1999 171814744 8459417Custom Region Brazil 2000 174315386 8459417Custom Region Brazil 2001 176789957 8459417Custom Region Brazil 2002 179204829 8459417Custom Region Brazil 2003 181553173 8459417Custom Region Brazil 2004 183827544 8459417Custom Region Brazil 2005 186020004 8459417Custom Region Brazil 2006 188131059 8459417Custom Region Brazil 2007 190167417 8459417Custom Region Brazil 2008 192130270 8459417Custom Region Brazil 2009 194019058 8459417Custom Region Brazil 2010 195834188 8459417
Density (persons per sq. km.)18
18.318.618.819.119.419.7
2020.320.620.921.221.521.7
2222.222.522.722.923.1
Midyear Population and Density for Region SummaryRegion Country Year Population Area (sq. kCustom Region Brazil 2011 197595498 8459417Custom Region Brazil 2012 199321413 8459417Custom Region Brazil 2013 201009622 8459417Custom Region Brazil 2014 202656788 8459417Custom Region Brazil 2015 204259812 8459417Custom Region Brazil 2016 205823665 8459417Custom Region Brazil 2017 207353391 8459417Custom Region Brazil 2018 208846892 8459417Custom Region Brazil 2019 210301591 8459417Custom Region Brazil 2020 211715973 8459417Custom Region Brazil 2021 213093938 8459417Custom Region Brazil 2022 214438667 8459417Custom Region Brazil 2023 215748760 8459417Custom Region Brazil 2024 217022513 8459417Custom Region Brazil 2025 218259140 8459417Custom Region Brazil 2026 219461193 8459417Custom Region Brazil 2027 220629152 8459417Custom Region Brazil 2028 221759269 8459417Custom Region Brazil 2029 222847611 8459417Custom Region Brazil 2030 223890497 8459417
Density (persons per sq. km.)23.423.623.8
2424.124.324.524.724.9
2525.225.325.525.725.825.926.126.226.326.5
Midyear Population and Density for Region SummaryRegion Country Year Population Area (sq. kCustom Region Brazil 2031 224883120 8459417Custom Region Brazil 2032 225820856 8459417Custom Region Brazil 2033 226700848 8459417Custom Region Brazil 2034 227520248 8459417Custom Region Brazil 2035 228276400 8459417Custom Region Brazil 2036 228968010 8459417Custom Region Brazil 2037 229595148 8459417Custom Region Brazil 2038 230158196 8459417Custom Region Brazil 2039 230657720 8459417Custom Region Brazil 2040 231094505 8459417Custom Region Brazil 2041 231468908 8459417Custom Region Brazil 2042 231781810 8459417Custom Region Brazil 2043 232035257 8459417Custom Region Brazil 2044 232231427 8459417Custom Region Brazil 2045 232372630 8459417Custom Region Brazil 2046 232460126 8459417Custom Region Brazil 2047 232494981 8459417Custom Region Brazil 2048 232479213 8459417Custom Region Brazil 2049 232414900 8459417Custom Region Brazil 2050 232304177 8459417
Density (persons per sq. km.)26.626.726.826.9
2727.127.127.227.327.327.427.427.427.527.527.527.527.527.527.5
Selección de modelos
Parámetros RSSλ = 1.004806053 2.387886E+13
Año Observado→Nt Predicho Residual1950 0 53443075 53443075 01951 1 54973775 55237981.88 69805272858.711952 2 56557783 56829602.7 73885950114.7141953 3 58197231 58476930 78231516855.6861954 4 59894345 60182200.4 82860728559.6281955 5 61651450 61947750.13 87793769967.9031956 6 63481099 63786192.52 93082058979.5041957 7 65369855 65684026 98703408678.0921958 8 67319772 67643314.39 104679678631.151959 9 69332977 69666195 111034209311.221960 10 71411679 71754887.31 117791945842.671961 11 73512233 73865536.69 124823494835.721962 12 75679187 76042905.18 132290916022.361963 13 77914771 78289233.52 140222176853.481964 14 80221304 80606851.84 148647134680.161965 15 82601179 82998164.64 157597600285.921966 16 85017480 85426078.51 166952744856.491967 17 87459519 87879854.08 176681581032.841968 18 89926300 90358490.56 186788681901.651969 19 92416817 92860977.12 197278211017.361970 20 94930053 95386291.86 208153901056.571971 21 97350239 97818109.41 218902716970.781972 22 99800740 100280388 230061862205.531973 23 102281260 102772829 241640233497.251974 24 104790608 105294237 253642384962.521975 25 107327250 107843070 266070736237.071976 26 109890962 110419104 278933745386.811977 27 112528142 113068958 292482175272.611978 28 115283675 115837734 306981873786.521979 29 118157191 118725061 3224760186871980 30 121063697 121645536 338536088536.671981 31 123961522 124557288 354936700322.91982 32 126890221 127500062 371906197335.861983 33 129821262 130445190 3892859782251984 34 132793071 133431282 407312686341.471985 35 135733183 136385524 425548608757.861986 36 138567223 139233184 443504606159.271987 37 141352474 142031821 461512996930.331988 38 144096245 144788779 479603600957.251989 39 146797954 147503473 497756698362.861990 40 149409483 150127553 515624368205.561991 41 151944196 152674448 533267772982.611992 42 154460821 155203168 551078903512.621993 43 156963840 157718217 569083950308.871994 44 159448367 160214684 587242203126.631995 45 161911449 162689604 605525206876.221996 46 164369473 165159441 624050065731.111997 47 166840211 167642054 642952025256.45
Modelos Exponencial Discreto: Nt+1 = λNt
x→Año
1998 48 169322084 170135855 662223087861.371999 49 171814744 172640495 681864321390.532000 50 174315386 175153155 701856864193.082001 51 176789957 177639619 721925343515.32002 52 179204829 180066097 741782399534.62003 53 181553173 182425727 761350776057.062004 54 183827544 184711029 780545595914.442005 55 186020004 186914026 799275326495.722006 56 188131059 189035227 817519476716.282007 57 190167417 191081372 835313158955.522008 58 192130270 193053658 852645872291.62009 59 194019058 194951524 869492601924.92010 60 195834188 196775377 885837642279.942011 61 197595498 198545152 901843539909.912012 62 199321413 200279362 917666805360.642013 63 201009622 201975685 933277512574.072014 64 202656788 203630767 948635598367.152015 65 204259812 205241495 963702450962.822016 66 205823665 206812864 978515528855.352017 67 207353391 208349942 993114658085.192018 68 208846892 209850621 1007472362121.62019 69 210301591 211312312 1021556106915.62020 70 211715973 212733491 10353432522872021 71 213093938 214118079 1048864287225.72022 72 214438667 215469271 10621437687692023 73 215748760 216785660 1075161549352.52024 74 217022513 218065535 1087894256565.62025 75 218259140 219308105 1100327550315.52026 76 219461193 220515935 1112480940619.82027 77 220629152 221689507 1124353560029.52028 78 221759269 222825056 11359014933372029 79 222847611 223918628 1147078324124.12030 80 223890497 224966527 1157839678813.92031 81 224883120 225963920 1168129048210.42032 82 225820856 226906163 1177891279349.72033 83 226700848 227790384 11870893183282034 84 227520248 228613722 1195686188502.72035 85 228276400 229373508 1203646999991.62036 86 228968010 230068442 1210951437479.52037 87 229595148 230698594 12175940571022038 88 230158196 231264348 1223573316911.82039 89 230657720 231766273 1228890246849.22040 90 231094505 232205157 1233548829662.32041 91 231468908 232581360 1237549084937.12042 92 231781810 232895766 12408972090452043 93 232035257 233150431 1243612466332.72044 94 232231427 233347544 1245716134423.72045 95 232372630 233489425 1247231453286.82046 96 232460126 233577342 1248170878109.32047 97 232494981 233612364 1248545206887.92048 98 232479213 233596520 1248375857914.12049 99 232414900 233531898 1247685252588.52050 100 232304177 233420643 1246496735438
log-verosimilitud Criterio Akaike-1322.53915 2647.07829985
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700
50000000
100000000
150000000
200000000
250000000
Crecimiento poblacional exponencial de Brasil durante los ultimos 60 años
Observado→NtPredicho
Tiempo (años)
Tam
año
de la
pob
lació
n
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200
50000000
100000000
150000000
200000000
250000000
Crecimiento poblacional exponencial de Brasil de 1950 hasta 2010
Predicho
Años
Tam
año
pobl
acio
nal
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700
50000000
100000000
150000000
200000000
250000000
Crecimiento poblacional exponencial de Brasil durante los ultimos 60 años
Observado→NtPredicho
Tiempo (años)
Tam
año
de la
pob
lació
n
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200
50000000
100000000
150000000
200000000
250000000
Crecimiento poblacional exponencial de Brasil de 1950 hasta 2010
Predicho
Años
Tam
año
pobl
acio
nal
0 20 40 60 80 100 1200
50000000
100000000
150000000
200000000
250000000
Crecimiento poblacional exponencial de Brasil estimada hasta 2050
Observado→NtPredicho
Tiempo (años)
Tam
año
de la
pob
lació
n
1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 20600
50000000
100000000
150000000
200000000
250000000
Crecimiento poblacional exponencial de Brasil de 1950 hasta 2050
Predicho
Años
Tam
año
pobl
acio
nal
0 20 40 60 80 100 1200
50000000
100000000
150000000
200000000
250000000
Crecimiento poblacional exponencial de Brasil estimada hasta 2050
Observado→NtPredicho
Tiempo (años)
Tam
año
de la
pob
lació
n
1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 20600
50000000
100000000
150000000
200000000
250000000
Crecimiento poblacional exponencial de Brasil de 1950 hasta 2050
Predicho
Años
Tam
año
pobl
acio
nal
Selección de modelos
Modelo Lineal: y = mx + b
Parámetros RSS log-verosimilitudm = 2009726.21 5.125E+15 -1593.66853b = 61098147.3
Año Observado Predicho Residual1950 0 53443075 53443075 01951 1 54973775 63107873.5 6.6164E+131952 2 56557783 65117599.7 7.327E+131953 3 58197231 67127326 7.9747E+131954 4 59894345 69137052.2 8.5428E+131955 5 61651450 71146778.4 9.0161E+131956 6 63481099 73156504.6 9.3613E+131957 7 65369855 75166230.8 9.5969E+131958 8 67319772 77175957 9.7144E+131959 9 69332977 79185683.2 9.7076E+131960 10 71411679 81195409.4 9.5721E+131961 11 73512233 83205135.6 9.3952E+131962 12 75679187 85214861.8 9.0929E+131963 13 77914771 87224588 8.6673E+131964 14 80221304 89234314.2 8.1234E+131965 15 82601179 91244040.4 7.4699E+131966 16 85017480 93253766.6 6.7836E+131967 17 87459519 95263492.8 6.0902E+131968 18 89926300 97273219 5.3977E+131969 19 92416817 99282945.2 4.7144E+131970 20 94930053 101292671 4.0483E+131971 21 97350239 103302398 3.5428E+131972 22 99800740 105312124 3.0375E+131973 23 102281260 107321850 2.5408E+131974 24 104790608 109331576 2.062E+131975 25 107327250 111341302 1.6113E+131976 26 109890962 113351029 1.1972E+131977 27 112528142 115360755 8.0237E+121978 28 115283675 117370481 4.3548E+121979 29 118157191 119380207 1.4958E+121980 30 121063697 121389934 1.0643E+111981 31 123961522 123399660 3.1569E+111982 32 126890221 125409386 2.1929E+121983 33 129821262 127419112 5.7703E+121984 34 132793071 129428838 1.1318E+131985 35 135733183 131438565 1.8444E+131986 36 138567223 133448291 2.6203E+131987 37 141352474 135458017 3.4745E+131988 38 144096245 137467743 4.3937E+131989 39 146797954 139477469 5.3589E+131990 40 149409483 141487196 6.2763E+131991 41 151944196 143496922 7.1356E+131992 42 154460821 145506648 8.0177E+131993 43 156963840 147516374 8.9255E+131994 44 159448367 149526100 9.8451E+131995 45 161911449 151535827 1.0765E+141996 46 164369473 153545553 1.1716E+141997 47 166840211 155555279 1.2735E+14
x→Año
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700
50000000
100000000
150000000
200000000
250000000
Crecimiento poblacional lineal de Brasil durante los ultimos 60 años
ObservadoPredicho
Tiempo (años)
Tam
año
de la
Pob
lació
n
1940 1960 1980 2000 20200
50000000
100000000
150000000
200000000
250000000
Crecimiento poblacional lineal de Brasil de 1950 hasta 2010
ObservadoPredicho
Años
Tam
año
de la
Pob
lació
n
1998 48 169322084 157565005 1.3823E+141999 49 171814744 159574731 1.4982E+142000 50 174315386 161584458 1.6208E+142001 51 176789957 163594184 1.7413E+142002 52 179204829 165603910 1.8498E+142003 53 181553173 167613636 1.9431E+142004 54 183827544 169623362 2.0176E+142005 55 186020004 171633089 2.0698E+142006 56 188131059 173642815 2.0991E+142007 57 190167417 175652541 2.1068E+142008 58 192130270 177662267 2.0932E+142009 59 194019058 179671993 2.0584E+142010 60 195834188 181681720 2.0029E+142011 61 197595498 183691446 1.9332E+142012 62 199321413 185701172 1.8551E+142013 63 201009622 187710898 1.7686E+142014 64 202656788 189720625 1.6734E+142015 65 204259812 191730351 1.5699E+142016 66 205823665 193740077 1.4601E+142017 67 207353391 195749803 1.3464E+142018 68 208846892 197759529 1.2293E+142019 69 210301591 199769256 1.1093E+142020 70 211715973 201778982 9.8744E+132021 71 213093938 203788708 8.6587E+132022 72 214438667 205798434 7.4654E+132023 73 215748760 207808160 6.3053E+132024 74 217022513 209817887 5.1907E+132025 75 218259140 211827613 4.1365E+132026 76 219461193 213837339 3.1628E+132027 77 220629152 215847065 2.2868E+132028 78 221759269 217856791 1.5229E+132029 79 222847611 219866518 8.8869E+122030 80 223890497 221876244 4.0572E+122031 81 224883120 223885970 9.9431E+112032 82 225820856 225895696 56010592042033 83 226700848 227905422 1.451E+122034 84 227520248 229915149 5.7355E+122035 85 228276400 231924875 1.3311E+132036 86 228968010 233934601 2.4667E+132037 87 229595148 235944327 4.0312E+132038 88 230158196 237954053 6.0775E+132039 89 230657720 239963780 8.6603E+132040 90 231094505 241973506 1.1835E+142041 91 231468908 243983232 1.5661E+142042 92 231781810 245992958 2.0196E+142043 93 232035257 248002684 2.5496E+142044 94 232231427 250012411 3.1616E+142045 95 232372630 252022137 3.861E+142046 96 232460126 254031863 4.6534E+142047 97 232494981 256041589 5.5444E+142048 98 232479213 258051316 6.5393E+142049 99 232414900 260061042 7.6431E+142050 100 232304177 262070768 8.8605E+14
log-verosimilitud Criterio Akaike3191.33707
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700
50000000
100000000
150000000
200000000
250000000
Crecimiento poblacional lineal de Brasil durante los ultimos 60 años
ObservadoPredicho
Tiempo (años)
Tam
año
de la
Pob
lació
n
1940 1960 1980 2000 20200
50000000
100000000
150000000
200000000
250000000
Crecimiento poblacional lineal de Brasil de 1950 hasta 2010
ObservadoPredicho
Años
Tam
año
de la
Pob
lació
n
0 20 40 60 80 100 1200
50000000
100000000
150000000
200000000
250000000
300000000
Crecimiento poblacional lineal de Brasil estimada hasta 2050
ObservadoPredicho
Tiempo (años)
Tam
año
de la
Pob
lació
n
1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 20600
50000000
100000000
150000000
200000000
250000000
300000000
Crecimiento poblacional lineal de Brasil de 1950 hasta 2050
ObservadoPredicho
Años
Tam
año
de la
Pob
lació
n
0 20 40 60 80 100 1200
50000000
100000000
150000000
200000000
250000000
300000000
Crecimiento poblacional lineal de Brasil estimada hasta 2050
ObservadoPredicho
Tiempo (años)
Tam
año
de la
Pob
lació
n
1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 20600
50000000
100000000
150000000
200000000
250000000
300000000
Crecimiento poblacional lineal de Brasil de 1950 hasta 2050
ObservadoPredicho
Años
Tam
año
de la
Pob
lació
n
Año Observado→NtN(t+1)/N(t) parametro1950 0 53443075 0 1.0048060531951 1 54973775 1.028641691952 2 56557783 1.0288138841953 3 58197231 1.0289871331954 4 59894345 1.0291614221955 5 61651450 1.0293367431956 6 63481099 1.0296773071957 7 65369855 1.0297530451958 8 67319772 1.0298289941959 9 69332977 1.0299051071960 10 71411679 1.0299814331961 11 73512233 1.0294147121962 12 75679187 1.0294774611963 13 77914771 1.0295402751964 14 80221304 1.0296032831965 15 82601179 1.0296663711966 16 85017480 1.0292526211967 17 87459519 1.0287239641968 18 89926300 1.0282048321969 19 92416817 1.027695091970 20 94930053 1.0271945741971 21 97350239 1.0254944131972 22 99800740 1.0251720081973 23 102281260 1.0248547261974 24 104790608 1.02453381975 25 107327250 1.0242067691976 26 109890962 1.0238868691977 27 112528142 1.0239981521978 28 115283675 1.0244875011979 29 118157191 1.0249256111980 30 121063697 1.0245986381981 31 123961522 1.0239363661982 32 126890221 1.0236258721983 33 129821262 1.023099031984 34 132793071 1.0228915431985 35 135733183 1.0221405531986 36 138567223 1.0208794931987 37 141352474 1.020100361988 38 144096245 1.0194108451989 39 146797954 1.0187493371990 40 149409483 1.0177899551991 41 151944196 1.0169648741992 42 154460821 1.0165628241993 43 156963840 1.016204881994 44 159448367 1.0158286581995 45 161911449 1.0154475211996 46 164369473 1.0151812861997 47 166840211 1.0150316111998 48 169322084 1.0148757481999 49 171814744 1.0147214112000 50 174315386 1.0145542922001 51 176789957 1.0141959412002 52 179204829 1.0136595542003 53 181553173 1.013104245
x→Año 𝝀 = (𝑵(𝒕+𝟏))/(𝑵(𝒕))
2004 54 183827544 1.01252732005 55 186020004 1.0119267222006 56 188131059 1.0113485382007 57 190167417 1.0108241462008 58 192130270 1.010321712009 59 194019058 1.0098307672010 60 195834188 1.0093554212011 61 197595498 1.0089938842012 62 199321413 1.0087345872013 63 201009622 1.0084697822014 64 202656788 1.0081944632015 65 204259812 1.0079100432016 66 205823665 1.0076561952017 67 207353391 1.0074322162018 68 208846892 1.0072026842019 69 210301591 1.0069653852020 70 211715973 1.0067254942021 71 213093938 1.0065085552022 72 214438667 1.0063104992023 73 215748760 1.0061094072024 74 217022513 1.0059038722025 75 218259140 1.0056981512026 76 219461193 1.0055074582027 77 220629152 1.0053219392028 78 221759269 1.0051222472029 79 222847611 1.0049077632030 80 223890497 1.0046798172031 81 224883120 1.004433522032 82 225820856 1.0041698822033 83 226700848 1.0038968592034 84 227520248 1.0036144552035 85 228276400 1.0033234492036 86 228968010 1.0030297042037 87 229595148 1.0027389772038 88 230158196 1.0024523512039 89 230657720 1.0021703512040 90 231094505 1.001893652041 91 231468908 1.0016201292042 92 231781810 1.001351812043 93 232035257 1.0010934722044 94 232231427 1.0008454322045 95 232372630 1.0006080272046 96 232460126 1.0003765332047 97 232494981 1.000149942048 98 232479213 0.9999321792049 99 232414900 0.999723362050 100 232304177 0.999523598
Resumen
Estadísticas de la regresiónCoeficiente de0.98303809Coeficiente d 0.96636388R^2 ajustado 0.96602413Error típico 11041345.9Observacione 101
ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZAGrados de libertadSuma de cuadradosPromedio de los cuadradosF Valor crítico de F
Regresión 1 3.4675E+17 3.4675E+17 2844.26499 9.7094E-75Residuos 99 1.2069E+16 1.2191E+14Total 100 3.5882E+17
Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95%Inferior 95,0%Intercepción 61098147.3 2181093.44 28.0126226 7.4125E-49 56770384.8 65425909.9 56770384.8Variable X 1 2009726.21 37683.5551 53.3316509 9.7094E-75 1934953.86 2084498.55 1934953.86
Superior 95,0%65425909.92084498.55