mobile today and tomorrow
TRANSCRIPT
Mobile Communication Today and Tomorrow
William H. DuttonQuello Professor of Media and Information Policy
Michigan State University
Presentation to Conference on Comparative Communication Research, Chinese University of Hong Kong, 7 February 2015.
Acknowledgements: Co-Authors
Ginette Law, Darja Groselj, Frank Hangler, and
Gili Vidan
Oxford University Consulting
The Quello Center at MSU
CHENG Lin; ZHI Hui; LU Xiaobin; ZHAO Qiyong, and WANG Bin
Huawei Technologies Co. Ltd.
Mobile Futures
Policy and Regulatory
Trends
Social Research
Technical-Industry
Developments
Synthesis of Research
• Analysis of Global Survey Research
• Longitudinal Analysis of UK OxIS Data
• Qualitative Semi-Structured Interviews
Field Research
Approach to this Global, v Comparative, Study
What is Mobile Communication?
Not New
Pedestrian
Innovative
• The Titanic
• 1918 experiments
• Mobile Phone
• Texting
• Mobile Internet
• Cloud Computing
• Internet of Things & Wearable
‘… service enabled by a wide array of electronic devices and networks across a range of locations’
• Feature Phone
• Smartphone
• Tablet, Reader, Laptop, Watch, …Devices:
• Licensed Spectrum
• Unlicensed Spectrum, Bluetooth, Whitespace, WiFi, Wired and Wireless, …
• Cloud computing – data warehouses
Network
Infrastructures
• On the Move
• Car, Home, Work, Conference, …Locations
Mobile
Device
LocationNetwork
Creating Growing Array of ‘Mobile Communication’Technologies
Changing Ecology of Mobile
Increasingly Converging Technology
Increasingly Diverse Ecology
Use of Multiple ICTs by World Regions
Global Internet Values Survery, 2012, N=8,241
Mutually Transformative
Mobile Internet
Transforming the Internet
Search
Video
Mobility
• Always AvailableSocial Media
Big Data
Is Mobile Opening or Closing?
Opening
Multiple Devices
Specialized Uses
Closing
Vertically Integrated Chain
(OS, Apps)
Preinstalled Apps v Open
Search
Equalities?
Closing Divides
More Individuals w
Phones
More with Access to the
Internet
Creativity of Users
Creating New Divides
MulitpleDevices
Multiple Infrastructures
Mobile Broadband and PC Penetration (Source: Robert Kenny, Communication Chambers, ITU Data)
CanadaGermany
Hungary
Japan
Slovenia
Switzerland
R² = 0.4435
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0
Mo
bile
BB
su
bs
pe
r 1
00
inh
abit
ants
, 20
12
PC Penetration, 2000 (% of HH)
Key Social Implications / Issues
Increasing Centrality of Mobile: What’s Essential?
Equality and Empowerment?
New Normal, or Tools-Symbols of Status & Identity
Social Contact and Interpersonal Communication
Privacy
Four Future Scenarios
The Seamlessly Bounded Ensemble (Ensemble)
The Unified Hub (Hub)
Connected Accoutrements (Accoutrements)
The Exposed Device-Free Realm (Device-Free)
Technology in the Hands of Society
• Dualities of Mobile: Together, Apart
• The Open Ended, Unpredictable Future of Mobile Communication
• Responses to Emerging Issues, such as Privacy
– The Unpredictable Consumer-User-Producer
– Potential Shifts in Policy and Regulation
• Global Economic Shifts