mobile data, cloud and networks fit for purposeglobal mobile data traffic growth / top-line global...

© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 1 1 © 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

Mobile Data, Cloud Applications and Networks Fit For Purpose

Focus on Europe

Dr. Robert Pepper Vice President Global Technology Policy May 2013

© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 2

Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Expanding the Scope of Cisco’s IP Thought Leadership

Cisco® VNI Forecast research is an ongoing initiative to predict global traffic growth. This study focuses on consumer and business mobile data traffic and its key drivers.

Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017

Global Mobile Speed Data

Global Forecast Data


Global Cloud Readiness

Cisco Global Cloud Index Forecasting Global Cloud Traffic / Gauging Cloud Transformation

Global Cloud Index

Broadband Penetration

Upload / Download Speeds

Network Latency

40 TBs of Monthly Traffic

from 10 Data Centers

Over 45M Speed Tests from

150 Countries

Global Data Center/Cloud Trends

© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 4 4

Overview


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Exab

yte

s p

er

Mo

nth

7.4 EB

0.9 EB

Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Top-Line Global Mobile Data Traffic will Increase 13X from 2012 to 2017

11.2 EB

4.7 EB

2.8 EB

1.6 EB

66% CAGR 2012–2017



0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1,2

1,4

1,6

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Exab

yte

s p

er

Mo

nth

1 EB

0.2 EB

WE Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Top-Line WE Mobile Data Traffic will Increase 8X from 2012 to 2017

1.4 EB

0.7 EB

0.4 EB

0.3 EB

50% CAGR 2012–2017



42,2

32,7

43,1

33,9

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

IP Traffic in 2012 Internet & Mobile Traffic in 2012

Exab

yte

s p

er

mo

nth

Projected in 2009

VNI Projections and Actuals (Global) Actual Growth Has Been Within 10% of Projected Growth



Top Trends


0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1,2

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Billio

ns o

f D

evic

es

Other Portable Devices (1%, 2%)

Tablets (2%, 6%)

Laptops (5%, 5%)

M2M (11%, 37%)

Smartphones (30%, 37%)

Non-Smartphones (51%, 13%)

WE Mobile Device Growth by Type By 2017, Smartphones Will Have 37% Share in 2017

Figures (n) refer to 2012 and 2017 device share

10% CAGR 2012–2017



0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Mil

lio

ns

of

Devic

es o

r C

on

nec

tio

ns

4G 3G 2G

WE Connections by Network Type 2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share

70%

56%

44%

1% 12%

18%



0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1,2

1,4

1,6

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Ex

ab

yte

s p

er

Mo

nth

2-2.5G

3-3.5G

4G

WE Mobile Data Traffic Growth: 4G 4G Will Be 18% of Connections and 47% of Traffic in 2017

4.2%

47%

53%

5.9%

89.9%

0%



72% 75% 78% 80% 83% 85%

28% 25% 22% 20% 17% 15%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Mobile Cloud Traffic Mobile Non-Cloud Traffic

WE Mobile Cloud Traffic Cloud Accounted for 72% of Mobile Data Traffic in 2012 Cloud Will Account for 85% of Mobile Data Traffic by 2017



Global Cloud Readiness Business & Consumer Network Requirements for Individual Apps

Basic Cloud Apps

Network Requirements:

Download Speed: Up to 750 kbps

Upload Speed: Up to 250 kbps

Latency: Above 160 ms

Intermediate Cloud Apps


Download Speed: 751–2,500 kbps

Upload Speed: 251–1,000 kbps

Latency: 159 - 100 ms

Advanced Cloud Apps


Download Speed: Higher than 2,500 kbps

Upload Speed:

Higher than 1,000 kbps

Latency: Less than 100 ms

• Text communications (email, instant messaging)

• Web browsing

• File sharing (low-res video)

• Web conferencing

• Social networking (basic text only)

• Stream basic video/ music

• File sharing (high-res video)

• IP Telephony

• ERP / CRM

• Basic gaming (single player)

• Basic video chat (low-res video)

• IP audio conferencing

• Basic video conferencing (low-res video)

• Advanced social networking (multimedia/interactivity)

• HD video streaming

• HD Industrial design collaboration

• Advanced gaming (multi player)

• Advanced video chat (high-res video)

• Advanced file sharing (super high-res video)

• HD audio conferencing

• HD video conferencing (high-res video)

• Stream super HD video


Global Cloud Readiness Business & Consumer Network Requirements for Concurrent Apps

Basic Cloud Apps Concurrency Bucket


Download Speed: ~1900 kbps

Upload Speed: ~600 kbps

Latency: Above 160 ms

Intermediate Cloud Apps Concurrency Bucket


Download Speed: ~7,000 kbps

Upload Speed: ~2,600 kbps

Latency: 159 - 100 ms

Advanced Cloud Apps Concurrency Bucket


Download Speed: ~21,000 kbps

Upload Speed:

~9,000 kbps

Latency: Less than 100 ms

• Text communications (email, instant messaging)

• Web browsing

• File sharing (low-res video)

• Web conferencing

• Social networking (basic text only)

• Stream basic video/ music

• File sharing (high-res video)

• IP Telephony

• ERP / CRM

• Basic gaming (single player)

• Basic video chat (low-res video)

• IP audio conferencing

• Basic video conferencing (low-res video)

• Advanced social networking (multimedia/interactivity)

• HD video streaming

• HD Industrial design collaboration

• Advanced gaming (multi player)

• Advanced video chat (high-res video)

• Advanced file sharing (super high-res video)

• HD audio conferencing

• HD video conferencing (high-res video)

• Stream super HD video


Fixed Networks Upload/ Download Speeds

Source: Ookla Speedtest.net Net Index

-

5.000

10.000

15.000

20.000

25.000

- 5.000 10.000 15.000 20.000 25.000 30.000

Ave

rage

Up

load

Sp

ee

d (

kbp

s)

Average Download Speed (kbps)

Other Countries EU27 Countries

Hong Kong Korea

Japan

US Switzerland

CEE Ave EU27 Ave

WE Ave


CEE Ave EU27 Ave

WE Ave

Fixed Networks Upload/ Download Speeds


Austria

Belgium

Bulgaria

Cyprus

Czech Rep.

Denmark

Estonia

Finland

France

Germany

Greece

Hungary

Ireland Italy

Latvia

Lithuania

Luxembourg

Malta

Netherlands

Poland Portugal

Romania

Slovakia Slovenia

Spain

Sweden

United Kingdom

-

5.000

10.000

15.000

20.000

25.000

- 5.000 10.000 15.000 20.000 25.000 30.000

Ave

rage

Up

load

Sp

ee

d (

kbp

s)



Hong Kong Korea

Japan

US Switzerland


Austria Belgium

Bulgaria

Cyprus

Czech Rep.

Denmark

Estonia

Finland

France

Germany

Greece

Hungary

Ireland

Italy

Latvia

Lithuania

Luxembourg

Malta

Netherlands

Poland

Portugal

Romania

Slovakia Slovenia

Spain

Sweden

United Kingdom

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000

Ave

rage

Up

load

Sp

ee

d (

kbp

s)


Above 160ms 100 to 159ms Below 100ms

CEE Ave

EU27 Ave

WE Ave

Fixed Speeds + Latency: EU27 Countries



Austria Belgium

Bulgaria

Cyprus

Czech Rep.

Denmark

Estonia

Finland

France

Germany

Greece

Hungary

Ireland

Italy

Latvia

Lithuania

Luxembourg

Malta

Netherlands

Poland

Portugal

Romania

Slovakia Slovenia

Spain

Sweden

United Kingdom

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000

Ave

rage

Up

load

Sp

ee

d (

kbp

s)



CEE Ave

EU27 Ave

WE Ave



EU27 Average

Ave download: 13.0mbps

Ave upload: 5.1mbps

Ave latency: 53ms


Austria Belgium

Bulgaria

Cyprus

Czech Rep.

Denmark

Estonia

Finland

France

Germany

Greece

Hungary

Ireland

Italy

Latvia

Lithuania

Luxembourg

Malta

Netherlands

Poland

Portugal

Romania

Slovakia Slovenia

Spain

Sweden

United Kingdom

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000

Ave

rage

Up

load

Sp

ee

d (

kbp

s)



CEE Ave

EU27 Ave

WE Ave



Western Europe Average


Ave upload: 3.7mbps

Ave latency: 54ms


Austria Belgium

Bulgaria

Cyprus

Czech Rep.

Denmark

Estonia

Finland

France

Germany

Greece

Hungary

Ireland

Italy

Latvia

Lithuania

Luxembourg

Malta

Netherlands

Poland

Portugal

Romania

Slovakia Slovenia

Spain

Sweden

United Kingdom

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000

Ave

rage

Up

load

Sp

ee

d (

kbp

s)



CEE Ave

EU27 Ave

WE Ave



CEE Average


Ave upload: 5.2mbps

Ave latency: 61ms


Austria Belgium

Bulgaria

Cyprus

Czech Rep.

Denmark

Estonia

Finland

France

Germany

Greece

Hungary

Ireland

Italy

Latvia

Lithuania

Luxembourg

Malta

Netherlands

Poland

Portugal

Romania

Slovakia Slovenia

Spain

Sweden

United Kingdom

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000

Ave

rage

Up

load

Sp

ee

d (

kbp

s)



CEE Ave

EU27 Ave

WE Ave



Lithuania


Ave upload: 21.3mbps

Ave latency: 39ms


Austria Belgium

Bulgaria

Cyprus

Czech Rep.

Denmark

Estonia

Finland

France

Germany

Greece

Hungary

Ireland

Italy

Latvia

Lithuania

Luxembourg

Malta

Netherlands

Poland

Portugal

Romania

Slovakia Slovenia

Spain

Sweden

United Kingdom

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000

Ave

rage

Up

load

Sp

ee

d (

kbp

s)



CEE Ave

EU27 Ave

WE Ave



Greece


Ave upload: 0.7mbps

Ave latency: 69ms


Austria Belgium

Bulgaria

Cyprus

Czech Rep.

Denmark

Estonia

Finland

France

Germany

Greece

Hungary

Ireland

Italy

Latvia

Lithuania

Luxembourg

Malta

Netherlands

Poland

Portugal

Romania

Slovakia Slovenia

Spain

Sweden

United Kingdom

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000

Ave

rage

Up

load

Sp

ee

d (

kbp

s)



CEE Ave

EU27 Ave

WE Ave



Germany


Ave upload: 2.5mbps

Ave latency: 54ms


Austria Belgium

Bulgaria

Cyprus

Czech Rep.

Denmark

Estonia

Finland

France

Germany

Greece

Hungary

Ireland

Italy

Latvia

Lithuania

Luxembourg

Malta

Netherlands

Poland

Portugal

Romania

Slovakia Slovenia

Spain

Sweden

United Kingdom

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000

Ave

rage

Up

load

Sp

ee

d (

kbp

s)



CEE Ave

EU27 Ave

WE Ave



Italy


Ave upload: 0.8mbps

Ave latency: 81ms


Fixed Networks Middle East and Africa


United Arab Emirates

Saudi Arabia Qatar

-

5.000

10.000

15.000

20.000

25.000

- 5.000 10.000 15.000 20.000 25.000 30.000

Ave

rage

Up

load

Sp

ee

d (

kbp

s)


Other Countries Middle East & Africa


Fixed Speeds + Latency: M/E Africa Countries


United Arab Emirates

Saudi Arabia

Qatar

Oman

South Africa

Mauritius

Kenya

Ghana

Kuwait

Bahrain

Jordan

Morocco

Tunisia

Pakistan Iran

Egypt Algeria

Iraq

Nigeria

Lebanon Syria

-

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

- 1.000 2.000 3.000 4.000 5.000 6.000 7.000 8.000 9.000

Ave

rage

Up

load

Sp

ee

d (

kbp

s)


Less than 100ms 100ms - 159ms Above 160ms

Kenya


Ave upload: 1.7mbps

Ave latency: 114ms


Mobile Networks Upload/ Download Speeds


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000

Ave

rage

Up

load

Sp

ee

d (

kbp

s)



CEE Ave

EU27 Ave

WE

Ave

Hong Kong Korea

Japan

US

Switzerland


Mobile Networks Upload/ Download Speeds


Hungary

Ireland

Austria

Denmark

Finland

France Germany

Italy

Netherlands

Poland

Portugal

Romania

Spain

Sweden

United Kingdom

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000

Ave

rage

Up

load

Sp

ee

d (

kbp

s)



CEE Ave

EU27 Ave

WE

Ave

Hong Kong Korea

Japan

US

Switzerland


Mobile Speeds + Latency: Europe Countries


Ireland

Austria

Denmark

Finland

France Germany

Italy

Netherlands

Poland

Portugal

Romania

Spain

Sweden

United Kingdom

Hungary

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000

Ave

rage

Up

load

Sp

ee

d (

kbp

s)



CEE Ave

EU27 Ave

WE

Ave




Ireland

Austria

Denmark

Finland

France Germany

Italy

Netherlands

Poland

Portugal

Romania

Spain

Sweden

United Kingdom

Hungary

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000

Ave

rage

Up

load

Sp

ee

d (

kbp

s)



CEE Ave

EU27 Ave

WE

Ave

EU27 Average


Ave upload: 1.3mbps

Ave latency: 130ms




Ireland

Austria

Denmark

Finland

France Germany

Italy

Netherlands

Poland

Portugal

Romania

Spain

Sweden

United Kingdom

Hungary

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000

Ave

rage

Up

load

Sp

ee

d (

kbp

s)



CEE Ave

EU27 Ave

WE

Ave

Western Europe Average


Ave upload: 1.3mbps

Ave latency: 141ms




Ireland

Austria

Denmark

Finland

France Germany

Italy

Netherlands

Poland

Portugal

Romania

Spain

Sweden

United Kingdom

Hungary

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000

Ave

rage

Up

load

Sp

ee

d (

kbp

s)



CEE Ave

EU27 Ave

WE

Ave

CEE Average


Ave upload: 1.0mbps

Ave latency: 192ms




Ireland

Austria

Denmark

Finland

France Germany

Italy

Netherlands

Poland

Portugal

Romania

Spain

Sweden

United Kingdom

Hungary

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000

Ave

rage

Up

load

Sp

ee

d (

kbp

s)



CEE Ave

EU27 Ave

WE

Ave

Germany


Ave upload: 1.1mbps

Ave latency: 150ms




Ireland

Austria

Denmark

Finland

France Germany

Italy

Netherlands

Poland

Portugal

Romania

Spain

Sweden

United Kingdom

Hungary

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000

Ave

rage

Up

load

Sp

ee

d (

kbp

s)



CEE Ave

EU27 Ave

WE

Ave

Italy


Ave upload: 1.2mbps

Ave latency: 136ms


Summary


Summary and Implications

More users, each using more bandwidth

More devices/more powerful devices

Video and cloud driving demand and consumption

Advanced Cloud needs advanced nets-low latency

Need fibre for backhaul, middle mile and aggregation

Networks becoming heterogeneous

Need more spectrum – Licensed and Unlicensed

Need “fit for purpose”


Thank you.

mobile data, cloud and networks fit for purposeglobal mobile data traffic growth / top-line global...

Documents