ASC 2016 09/09/2016 – Winchester (UK)

Steven Debaere | Sophie Van Neck | Tom De Ruyck | Kristof Coussement

MINORITY REPORT IN RESEARCH COMMUNITIES

MEMBER DISENGAGEMENT CAN BE PREVENTEDIN THE FUTURE CAN BE SEEN

A Research Community as an Insight Delivery System

#minorityreport

The Challenge of Community Viability

#minorityreport

>50%OF ONLINE COMMUNITIES

FAIL TO GENERATE

SUCCESFUL OUTCOMES

(Sarner, 2008)

Member Disengagement as Viability Challenger

1

2

Low participation quantity

Low participation quality

Low participation in community topics

Posts that contain insufficient argumentation

#minorityreport

How to reduce member disengagement?

Reputation mechanism?

Content authoring?

#minorityreport

REACTIVE

SUBJECTIVE

TIME/COST INEFFICIENT

How to reduce member disengagement?

Reputation mechanism?

Content authoring?

#minorityreport

REACTIVE

SUBJECTIVE

TIME/COST INEFFICIENT

Better approach?

PROACTIVE

OBJECTIVE

TIME/COST EFFICIENT

I LEARN THE 4 PRINCIPLES

OF Proactive CommunityManagement

III

II

IV

To reduce member disengagement effectively ….

#minorityreport

Murder! Murder!

“What’s coming?

Double homicide:

one male, one

female. Killer's

male, white, 40's.”

“I'm placing

you under

arrest for the

future murder

of Sarah

Marks”

“The future can be seen”

I - PREDICTION

#minorityreport

Predictive analytics

I - PREDICTION

Untapped potential of research communities

Prediction model for member disengagement

I - PREDICTION

1. %

2. Risk indicator

3. Proactive alarm system

Output

#minorityreport

I - PREDICTIONI - PREDICTION

QUANTITY

QU

ALIT

Y

Low High

Low

High

#minorityreport

Community Stars

Passivists

High-Potentials

Annoyers

1

2

TIP! Integrate predictions in community

management support system

I - PREDICTIONQ

UA

LIT

Y

QUANTITY

I - PREDICTION

Low High

Low

High

#minorityreport

87%

32%

81%

20%

27%

79%

32%

85%

12%

91%86%

93%

91%

94%

11%

13%

9%

22%

17%

14%19%

11%

94%

17%

Low quantity risk

Low quality risk

TIP! Integrate predictions in community

management support system

1

2

94%

17%

“We see what they see”

II - DETECTION

“All we have to

run on are the

images that they

produce”

can be seen

“We see what they see”

#minorityreport

II - DETECTION

AugJul Sep Oct Nov

II - DETECTION

Pattern recognition

Pursue

Constructivity

Less recent, less

frequent & shorter

posts = lower-

level members

Big size breeds

big problems

Allow swearing,

but avoid raging

anger

1 2 3 4

#minorityreport

TIPS!

Sentiment & member activity analysis

Past Future

Performance explanation

“The system can’t be wrong”

III - PRECISION

“There hasn't been a murder in

six years. There's nothing

wrong with the system. It's

perfect.”

“Flaws.

You ever get any

false positives?”

“Tell me exactly

what it is you're

looking for?”

#minorityreport

“100% predictive accuracy is not possible”

I - PREDICTIONIII - PRECISION

“Successful implementation requires more than adequate predictive ability”

#minorityreport

50% 100%

78%71%

Good

….

Bad

Low

Quant

Low

Qual

ComprehensibilityJustifiability

Predictive Accuracy

TIP!Make a trade-off decision

for succesful adoption

(Martens et al, 2008)

Random

Choice

“Murder can be stopped”

IV - PREVENTION

“We are arresting

individuals who've broken

no law, but they will.”

“The fact that you prevented

it from happening doesn't

change the fact that it was

going to happen.”

#minorityreport

I - PREDICTIONIV - PREVENTION

Three-stage approach

prediction model

frameworkCRM info

prevention suggestion

1 2

QU

AL

ITY

QUANTITY

Low

High

Low High

#minorityreport

TIP!

HUMANMACHINE

identify contextualize finalize

MACHINE

interpretation

action

3

!

Prevention campaign

PERSONALIZATION = KEY

GO!

THEREFORE, USE THE 4 PRINCIPLES

OF Proactive CommunityManagement

Conclusion & takeaways

DETECTION

PREVENTIONPRECISION

PREDICTION

I II

III IV

#minorityreport

Member disengagement jeopardizes community viability & must be battled effectively*….

* proactive – objective – time/cost efficient

Steven Debaere | Sophie Van Neck | Tom De Ruyck | Kristof Coussement

MINORITY REPORT IN RESEARCH COMMUNITIES

MEMBER DISENGAGEMENT CAN BE PREVENTEDIN THE FUTURE CAN BE SEEN

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION! #minorityreport