minh le - gw solar symposium 2012
DESCRIPTION
TRANSCRIPT
1
Revitalizing American Competitiveness in Solar Technologies
So what is the SunShot Initiative?
2
SunShot Initiative SunShot Initiative
5 - 6¢/kwh without subsidy
A 75% cost reduction by the end of the decade
Pric
e
3
SunShot
$1/W Target
$1/W
Inst
alle
d Sy
stem
s P
rice
($/
W)
$3.80/W
Power Electronics
Balance of Systems (BOS)
PV Module
Estimates made in 2010 for Utility Scale PV plants
4
U.S. Solar Installations
• U.S. PV installations have grown dramatically in the past few years and are expected to continue to grow
• Currently ahead of SunShot Vision Study projections
4
Note: P = projection. PV assumes an 85% DC to AC conversion Sources: 2006 – 2010: Department of Energy “2010 Solar Technologies Market Report”. 2011: GTM/SEIA : “U.S. Solar Market Insight Q4 2011 & 2011 Year-in-Review”. 2012: median of Barclays (03/19/12), BNEF (02/06/12), Citibank (02/22/12), Cowen (03/20/12) EPIA (Market Outlook 2011, Global Market Outlook until 2015), Goldman Sachs (02/29/12), Navigant Consulting (01/26/12) Photon Consulting (Solar Annual 2012), Stifel Nicolaus (01/25/12), UBS (01/20/12). 2016- 2020: DOE “SunShot Vision Study”, February, 2012. EIA Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2012 Early Release, January 2012.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012P 2013P 2014P 2015P 2016P 2017P 2018P 2019P 2020P
Cum
ulat
ive
U.S
. Ins
talla
tion
s (G
WA
C)
Cum. CSP (SunShot Vision Study)Cum. PV (SunShot Vision Study)Cum. PV & CSP (EIA AEO 2012)Cum. PV (EIA AEO 2012)Cum. U.S. PV & CSP (Reported)Cum. U.S. PV (Reported)
US PV Cell and Module Production
Sources: Navigant Consulting, Solar Services Program – 2011 Shipment Update, NPS-Supply6 - April 2011, Report NPS-Supply4, Report NPS-Supply3.
6
Manufacturing
“Abandoning today's ‘commodity’ manufacturing can lock you out of tomorrow's emerging industry.”
- Andy Grove, co-founder, former CEO, Intel
7
To compete in the clean energy race, we have to do more than invent
technologies, we have to make them, sell them, and use them too.
Secretary of Energy
Steven Chu
8
Incubator Supports Startups
8
9
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Multiple Incubator Rounds
9
Round 5 PV Incubator
Round 4 PV Incubator
Round 3 PV/Pre-Incubator
Round 2 PV Incubator
Round 1 PV Incubator
Round 6 SunShot Incubator Soft Cost
Round 7 SunShot Incubator
10
Incubator Startups
10
Caelux
Renewable Power
Conversion
11
SUNPATH Contract Duration
2 years
Max Contract Award ($) $25M, 75% cost-share
Maximum Cost to DOE ($)
$50M
Objective Domestic industrial scale manufacturing demonstration of a PV technology : • 15% lower in cost per watt when compared to the industry
leader • progressing significantly towards the SunShot goal of $0.50/W
modules • >25 year lifetime and sufficiently high efficiency for low Balance
of Systems costs. Replication and expansion of commercial manufacturing of products and technologies in the US.
SUNPATH goals and the SunShot portfolio
SUNPATH
~$6.50
~$5.50
~$4.00
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
Residential Commercial Utility
PV
Sys
tem
Pri
ce /
WD
C
2010 PV System Prices BOS-non-hardwareBOS-hardwarePower electronicsModule
12
“Even if you paid nothing for the hardware, you'd still pay thousands of dollars to install a residential solar power system” - Secretary Chu
Non Hardware costs: • Customer
Acquisition • Financing and
Contracting • Permitting,
Inspection, and Interconnection
• Installation and Performance
The Issue:
Complicated and confusing process
Process is different for every local
Unnecessarily high permit fees
In-person application submission and inspection
Long wait times for inspection and approval
But Why so Pricey?
13
More Paperwork = Higher Cost
One Hypothetical City’s Process…
15
Pre-Application Install
Complies with Zoning Rules
Apply to Commission A
Receive Commission A
Approval
Special Building Type?
Yes
Utility Track
Uti
lity
- App
licat
ion
Solar to be
utility connected?
Apply Electronically for Interconnection
Apply via mail for Interconnection
Utility Report Auto-Generated
Person Creates Utility Report
Report Sent to Appropriate Area
> 30 kW? Contract Type 1
Authorization Letter
Equipment Spec
Sheets
3-Line Diagram
Application Type 2
Application Fee
Application Type 3
No
Yes
Yes Yes
Yes
Check Utility Report
Approve Initial Design within
10 Days Engineer Review
Order Meter
Time of Use Metering?
Special Order Meter
Uti
lity
- Ins
talla
tion
Yes
No
From the Start: Buildings Office Track Install
Complies with Zoning Rules
Apply to Commission A
Receive Commission A
Approval
Special Building Type?
Yes
Electronic Filing?
Bui
ldin
gs O
ffice
- A
pplic
atio
n
Print Forms A & B for Signatures
Complete All Paper Forms
Complete Form A, Architect/Engineer Signs Complete Form A1 Complete Form A2
Application Certified?
Application Review
Requesting Fire Code
Exemption?
Yes No
Yes
Yes
No
No
More than a Year Later, You’re Finally Ready for Solar
And Permitting is Different Everywhere
25
Germany’s Success
26
Sign contract with installer
Register PV system with state energy
agency for FIT
(1 page, submitted online in 15 mins.)
As long as housing structure is built to code, no permits filed for residential PV in Germany
Rooftop Solar Challenge
CA NJ
= CA WI
La Mirada, CA Oceanside, CA
≠
≠
Uniform processes
The Problem • 18,000+ local jurisdictions with different PV
permitting requirements • 5,000+ utilities implementing interconnection
standards and net metering programs • 50 states developing interconnection
standards and net metering rules
The Solution The Challenge invests in 22 teams comprised of jurisdictions, utilities, and local stakeholders to develop the same requirements and processes across large geographic areas (500,000+ population). The Challenge also measures each team’s progress to identify approaches that work.
$2/W SunShot Residential Prize RFI
28
Residential PV in Germany costs ~$2.50/W Residential PV in the US costs ~$6/W
Thank You
Minh Le Chief Engineer, Acting Deputy Program Manager
SunShot Initiative