minding your ps and qs: strategic q factor analysis for today … · 2016-09-19 · minding your ps...
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Minding Your Ps and Qs:
Strategic Q Factor Analysis
for Today and Tomorrow
September 15, 2016
Mike Gullette, ABA
aba.com |1-800-BANKERS
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Your Presenter
Mike Gullette
• ABA
• FASB CECL Roundtable and Workshop Participant
• CECL Fatal Flaw Reviewer
• Former Controller
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Lending Policies
Econ/business conditions
Nature/vol/terms of portfolio
Exper/ability/depth of mgmt
Vol/sev of past due loans, etc.
Quality of loan review
Value of underlying collateral
Existence/effect of
concentrations
Other external factors
SAB 102/
2006 Interagency Policy Statement on ALLL
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How much of your ALLL
is from your Q factors?
Quant
QUAL
Quant
QUALVS
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Review: Purpose of Q factors
Adjust rates for the difference between conditions that existed over the LAP to the Measurement Date
Measurement DateLoss Accumulation Period
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ALLL
Segments
HistoryQ
factors
The point is not to support Q factors
The point is to estimate losses in the portfolio.
Our goal is to manage that ALLL balance.
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ALLL
Segments
HistoryQ
factors
Q Factor Analysis
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Factors in Evaluating Q factors
“When estimating credit losses on each group of loans with similar risk characteristics…should consider its historical loss experience…adjusted for changes in trends, conditions, and other relevant factors…”
Measurement DateLoss Accumulation Period
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Q Factor Segment Interplay
Q Factor
Lending Policies
(Underwriting)
Nature/volume/terms
of the portfolio
Concentrations
Call Report Segments
1. Secured by R/E
2. To depository…
3. Ag production…
4. C&I
6. Consumer…
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ALLL
Segments
HistoryQ
factors
Q Factor Analysis
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Q Factor Analysis: History
Loss Emergence
Period
Loss Accumulation
Period
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Loss Emergence Period (LEP)
Loss event
Job/Revenue loss
Loss identification
Delinquency
Downgrade
Charge-Off
Loss Discovery pd
Pre-emergence pd
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LEPs and Loss Accumulation Periods
• LEP justification
– Supported by individual loan review, plus judgmental
– Loss Discovery Period
• Downgrade/Watch list, delinquencies through charge-off
– Pre-emergence Period
• Loan review timing, Specific loss event ID, some judgment
– LAP never be shorter than LEP– The more it differs, the greater the potential Q factor
adjustment
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ALLL
Segments
HistoryTrue Q
factors
Q Factor Analysis
•Economic conditions•Experience of mgmt•Past dues/ratings•Collateral values•Other Factors
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• Directional consistency
• Quarterly/Yearly changes of each ALLL balance/Q
factor
• Min/Max/Average ALLL balance/Q factor adjustment
over the specified time period
– Based on evaluated risk levels
Justifying Q Factors Today
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Current Q Factor Analysis Summary
Break out Segments? Apply different history?
Q factor analysis
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CECL Model: Expected credit losses over life of loan or
portfolio
• Applies to loans, loan commitments, and “Held To Maturity” securities
• Life of Loan (LOL) loss expectation (pool basis) effectively recorded at origination
• Forecast of the future to LOL required
• LOL includes prepayments, TDRs, not renewals
• Historic averages of “life of loan” losses
• Used as starting point for estimates
• Applied to periods beyond “forecastable future.”
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How much of your CECL will be
from your Q factors?
Quant
QUAL
Quant
QUAL
VS
VS Quant
QUAL
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Q factors Under CECL
Adjust rates for the difference between conditions that existed over the LAP to the Measurement Date end of the contractual term.
Measurement Date
Loss Accumulation Period
Contractualterm(s)
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Credit Risk
Segments
HistoryTrue Q
factors
Q Factors Under CECL Forecasts
•Economic conditions•Experience of mgmt•Past dues/ratings•Collateral values•Other Factors
Present & Future
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Q Factor Impact: 2015
21
.8%
95%
10%
CAPITAL
Pre-Tax Income
ALLL
If we adjust the ALLL by 10%...
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CECL “True Q” Factor Issues
• Sensitivity of assumptions
• Large movement to small changes to
assumptions
• Large possible ranges
• Reduced comparability between companies
• Reduced comparability between periods
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Credit Risk
Segments
HistoryTrue Q
factors
Q Factors Under CECL Forecasts
Is recent historical data a good basis for estimating expected losses…
…at a specific point in time?
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Lending Policies (Underwriting,
collection, charge-off, recovery)
Nature/volume/terms of the
portfolio
Economic/business conditions
Value of underlying collateral
Vol/severity of past due loans,
etc.
Experience/ability of mgmt
Quality of loan review
Concentrations
Additional Qs Under CECL: History
• Recency vs. vintage• Sufficient historic
experience• Quality of data
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Credit Risk
Segments
HistoryTrue Q
factors
Q Factors Under CECL Forecasts
Will we look at segments differently?
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CECL Q Factor Segment Interplay
Q Factor
Lending Policies
(Underwriting)
Nature/volume/terms
of the portfolio
Concentrations
Call Report Segments
1. Secured by R/E
2. To depository…
3. Ag production…
4. C&I
6. Consumer…
• Fixed rate vs. variable• Credit rating• Maturity date• Length of term
CECL Issues
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Portfolio Mix: Impact on Q Factors
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20% exposure
60% exposure
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Q Factor Analysis: CECL Example 1
• Most recent 10 year period is reasonable
– Underwriting: Credit quality at origination
– Contractual terms
• Variable vs. fixed, Note rates, maturities
• Current conditions (collateral values, ratings, delinquency,
etc.)
• Prepayment rates not expected to change
– Interest rate movement, compared to terms
• Forecasts of future: R/E values, unemployment trends
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Q Factor Challenge: Less Detail
Less flexibility
More volatility
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CECL Q Factor Governance
1. Appropriateness of the segments
2. Availability and sufficiency of quality data
3. Sensitivity and range of changes to forecast
assumptions
4. Backtesting
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P Factors: What will you do in Practice?
Loss rate
Vintage
Migration
PD/LGD
DCF
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What method do you use?
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Credit Risk
Segments
HistoryTrue Q
factors
CECL Q Factor Analysis in Practice
•Economic conditions•Experience of mgmt•Past dues/ratings•Collateral values•Other Factors
Present & Future
Vintage
Migration
PD/LGD
DCF (?)
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Practical Reporting Under CECL
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Loss rates
Vintage
PD/
LGD
DCF
Mi-gration
Risk/Credit dept Bd/Mgmt
review
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Practical Questions CFO/CCOs must address
1. I’m not getting a dividend? What would happen if
we anticipate only an X% increase in (Y) rates?
2. With that level of 4-rated loans, what would I
normally expect to lose?
3. Which vintages are most at risk?
4. You said that you had already accounted for a
deterioration in credit conditions within last year’s
ALLL balance. Why would this year’s provisions
need to increase THAT much?
5. Why did past-dues go up but my loss provision
went down?
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Term Loans Revolving
Amortized Cost Basis by Origination Year Loans
AmortizedAs of December 31 20X5 20X4 20X3 20X2 20X1 Prior Cost Basis Total
Residential mortgage:
Risk rating
1-2 internal grade -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$
3-4 internal grade - - - - - - - -
5 internal grade - - - - - - - -
6 internal grade - - - - - - - -
7 internal grade - - - - - - - -
Total residential mortgage loans -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$
Residential mortgage loans
Current-period gross write-offs -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$
Current-period recoveries - - - - - - - -
Current-period net write-offs -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$
Vintage Credit Quality Disclosure
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Practical Questions CFO/CCOs must address
1. I’m not getting a dividend? What would happen if we anticipate only an X% increase in (Y) rates?
2. With that level of 4-rated loans, what would I normally expect to lose?
3. Which vintages are most at risk?
4. You said that you had already accounted for a deterioration in credit conditions within last year’s ALLL balance. Why would this year’s provisions need to increase THAT much?
5. Why did past-dues go up but my loss provision went down?
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P Factor Solution: Coverage ratio
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Beginning End
ALLL Coverage of Period of Period
Total ALLL 1,500$ 1,750$
Amortized Cost 100,000 115,000
Coverage 1.50% 1.52%
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Beg Pay Charge End
Bal Origs Downs offs Bal
ALLL 1,500 4,310 (60) (4,000) 1,750
Am Cost 100,000 25,000 (6,000) (4,000) 115,000
Coverage 1.50% 17.24% 1.00% 100.00% 1.52%
Amortized Cost Rollforward
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Per VintageDeduced by Vintage
Allocable by Vintage
Disc?
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1. Q factors cannot be considered exclusive of segments and
history.
2. Governance process should be in place to reconsider what
is “Q” and move it to “Quant”.
3. The more Quant analysis of segments and history, the less
“Q” factor analysis is needed. This allows more flexibility in
judgment in True Q factor analysis.
Minding Your Ps and Qs
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Minding Your CECL Ps and Qs
1. Increased sensitivity, potential volatility, lack of directional
consistency necessitate more detailed analysis and
governance. Language and expectation management are
critical.
2. Measurement methods and analysis will integrate/reflect Q
factor analysis and support the other methods. Plan
expecting practice to evolve.
3. Public disclosures may dictate primary measurement
methods and analysis.
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Questions and Answers
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ABA Resources on ABA.com
– www.aba.com/CECL
• ABA Webinar recordings on CECL
– 5 Questions You Need to Answer before Making a Decision on CECL
– CECL Measurement Methods: Advantages and Challenges
• ABA Discussion Paper: CECL Challenges: The Life of Loan Concept
• ABA CECL Backgrounder and FAQ Documents
• Fintellix Cost Analysis of ALLL Process
– ABA Accounting Committee mailing list or receive ABA e-newsletters
• Tax and Accounting Newsbytes
• ABA FYI for CFOs
– Join ABA CECL implementation groups
• By product
• By bank size
– Send message to [email protected] to sign up.
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