mim 524 class 5. agenda -risk mitigation & strategies -intro to npi -dfx -magretta & tinsley...
TRANSCRIPT
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MIM 524Class 5
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Agenda-Risk Mitigation & Strategies-Intro to NPI-DFX-Magretta & Tinsley -Cisco Case Questions-Review Midterms if necessary
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Supply Chain Risks
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Risk Management
What might cause disruption in supply?
Risk Mitigation plans to address
Cost Vs Risk consideration
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What could happen?
Labor disputes – carriers, mfg., etc.Terrorist event Infectious disease - SAR’s, Bird Flu, etc.Military conflict – Iraqi, Korea, etc.Natural Disasters – Tsunami, earthquake,
fire, etc.Limitations of resources – Rolling blackouts
in ChinaCorruption and Political unrestPoor performance – unqualified…
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Some ideas to offset the risk…Multiple Sources in Multiple Geo’sAlternate or substitute strategiesInventory strategy
HubsSafety StockOn site consignment/VMI
(Vendor Managed Inventory)Strong qualification process or
evaluationVerify capabilities directly or via
customer referralsAsk for certifications, audit
results, endorsements, etc.
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Cost Vs Risk..Global Source Vs Local Source
Transportation costStorage costPotential recovery costAgility of supply lineLoss, etc…
Should consider risk from source to proximity of useUnderstand the flow of the materials in the
supply chainManufacturing location through finished
good distributionValue add should increase as
you get closer to the end customer
Ensure you understand ALL of the costs and understand the Risk What happens if the lines go down? Cost
per minute? Loss of revenue or sales?
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Adding Suppliers to Mitigate RiskPros:-Excess Capacity-Good for low obsolescence & low holding costs-Good for high volume commodity parts-Negotiation leverage
Cons:-JIT systems-Bad for high obsolescence & high holding costs-Costly for low volume or custom parts-Double the ECOs & tolerance issues
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Category of Risk
Drivers of Risk
Disruptions •Natural disaster•Labor dispute•Supplier bankruptcy•War & terrorism•Dependency on a single source of supply as well as the capacity & responsiveness of alternative suppliers
Delays •High capacity utilization at supply source•Inflexibility of supply source•Poor quality or yield at supply source•Excessive handling due to border crossings or to change in transportation modes.
Supply Chain Risks & Their Drivers
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Category of Risk Drivers of Risk
Systems •Information infrastructure breakdown•System integration or extensive systems networking•E- commerce
Forecast •Inaccurate forecasts due to long lead times, seasonality, product variety, short life cycles, small customer base•“Bullwhip effect” or information distortion due to sales promos, incentives, lack of supply chain visibility & exaggeration of demand in times of product shortage
Intellectual property
•Vertical integration of supply chain•Global outsourcing and markets
Supply Chain Risks & Their Drivers
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Category of Risk
Drivers of Risk
Procurement •Exchange rate risk•Percentage of a key component or raw material procured from a single source•Industry wide capacity utilization•Long-term vs, short-term contracts
Receivables •Number of customers•Financial strength of customers
Supply Chain Risks & Their Drivers
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Assessing the Impact of Various Mitigation Strategies
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Stress Testing Your Supply Chain
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Tailoring Reserves for Risk Mitigation
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Magretta: Questions- What is DELL’s perspective on outsourcing of
services?- What is meant by virtual integration with
customers? Does it still apply?- How does Dell’s model combine single source
suppliers and outsourcing into one model?- What do you think Dell’s cash-to-cash cycle is?
Is this important enough to not mitigate risk with 2 sources of supply?
- What is Dell’s strategy with IT & R&D, does this affect the Sourcing strategies?
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Tinsley et al.: QuestionsCases of Apple & Jet Blue, could they have
been avoided?Preventing near misses: What are the 7
identities and learning opportunities?Pick two of seven that make the most sense
to you, discuss.
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Global Cases - NPINew Product Introduction (NPI) – Why care?Risks & Concerns without it? 60% cost in
design phaseSCM Strategy – Single / multi-sourcedDesign for “X”AVLPackagingPostponementService strategies
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A Word on Technology
EngineeringScience
•Can the Technology be manufactured with known manufacturing processes?
•Are the critical parameters that control the new Technology’s functions identified?
•Are the safe operating ranges known?•Have the failure modes been evaluated?•Have the life cycle effects been evaluated?•Are the environmental effects known?
If yes, engineering. If no, science
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Why design for manufacturability matters
Ma
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100%
Cumulativepercent of
cost
0%
Product development
Total life cycle costs
Ability to control costs
Production Support
60% to 80% of total life cycle costs are largely determined during development
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Cross Functional Teams
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NPI Summary – All Affect Cost
Purchasing (RFQ / SOW)Engineering (ERP / AVL)Logistics (Packaging)Quality (Yield / Touches)Marketing (PRD)Warranty / ServiceMost Important – “The Crossover”
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Drivers of the crossoverDemand side
Environmental – MacroeconomicCompetitionPricingTimingMarket responseProduct capability
Supply sideExternal execution – SCMInternal execution – supply in volume
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Purchasing and new product development
Conflicting interest between purchasing and engineering activities…
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Sourcing and new product developmentInvolving sourcing decisions in development
processes at an early stage can result in contribution of new knowledge and better understanding of:ConstructionSuitable materialsSuppliersSupplier knowledge
Involving the supplier in new product development can also result in considerable savings
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Linear to Concurrent
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Design for….- Manufacture- Environment- End-of-life- Disassembly- Recycling- Quality- Maintainability- Reliability- Cost
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Manufacturing and ProducabilityMake/buy Supplier alignment Integration of new manufacturing into previous
manufacturing process with minimum disruption and capitalization costs
Maximum responsiveness to surges (and declines!) in demand
Ease of Assembly/Manufacturability /Modularity Parts minimization TestabilityInspectabilityStandardization
Design For “X” (DFX)
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Sales and marketing (Customer alignment)Meets Customers’ needs Design to Cost to allow Target pricingTime to marketProduct Price/Volume/Feature mixPackaging and Labels Advertising strategy, plan and literatureCatalogues
Design For “X” (DFX)
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After market Support and ServicingTraining of factory personnel, sales force,
customers. Manuals and DocumentationMaintainabilitySpare Parts availabilityCustomer assembly LogisticsUpgradabilityShelf life and StorageInstallabilityWarranties
Design For “X” (DFX)
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Defee et al. (2009). Closed Loop Supply Chains (CLSC)
- CLSC – Strategically focused on excellence of forward and reverse SCM
- CLSC can lead an organization in CSR initiatives- RoHS, WEEE, Energy Star, EPEAT
- Reverse SCM is critical- Views CLSC holistically not just supplier-
customer “forward flows”
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CLSC – Reverse Flow is critical
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Three examples: Walk the talk
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Cisco CaseWhat do we know? Please add to this list important factors•Viking Product has transitioned to a faster model, surpassing the competition (Juniper & Alcatel).•Now want to go from US-based NPI & China transition to Foxconn out of the gate in Shenzen.•Foxconn had never made this complex a box, especially from the start, but now level – 3.•45% of employees and sales from outside US.•Proud of their “adaptive supply chain,” cut its number of outsourced partners from 13 to 4 (is this good & why?)•2001 Cisco went from 1,500 suppliers to 600, of which 200 had 80% of the spend.•Cisco Lean was the mantra, pull system & predictable lead-times and on-time shipments.
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Cisco NPI – 6 Questions1. What are the risks in NPI overall?2. Why Foxconn or any new supplier?3. What are the challenges and risks with
China directly.4. What are the benefits of going to China
directly.5. Why Foxconn given reputation? (you may
need a little outside research)6. How do you mitigate the risks of going
direct to China?