millington research overview | eed seminar sept 2013
TRANSCRIPT
http://www.landscapemodelling.net
Landscape Ecology
Modelling & Simulation
Dr. James Millington
Lecturer in Physical and Quantitative Geography
Research Interests
Landscape Ecology Modelling & Simulation
http://www.landscapemodelling.net
Succession-
Disturbance
Resource
Management Agent-Based
Epistemology
Landscape Change
Land Use/Cover Change
Agricultural decision-making Agent-Based
Model (ABM)
http://www.landscapemodelling.net
Millington et al. (2008)
Landscape Change
Land Use/Cover Change
Agricultural decision-making ABM
Landscape succession-disturbance (LFSM) http://www.landscapemodelling.net
Millington et al. (2009)
Ongoing Modelling
Model assessment
Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses
Pattern-oriented modelling
Updating model to
better represent
climate and soil
moisture
http://www.landscapemodelling.net
Resource Management
Wildlife and timber management
Timber Deer
© L.S. Johnson
Birds
http://www.landscapemodelling.net
Selection Timber Harvest
Shade-tolerant species
regenerate in understory
Intends to mimic gap-
phase dynamics
http://www.landscapemodelling.net
Simulation Model
USFS Forest
Vegetation Simulator
MSU Regeneration Model
7.0m
Tre
e H
eig
ht
Deer
Herbivory
Landscape Forest Structure
Forest Valuation
Timber
Harvest (light & seed
availability)
Site Quality (soil resources, competition)
http://www.landscapemodelling.net
Winter Deer Habitat
Juxtaposition of
northern
hardwood and
lowland conifer
stands
Provides winter
food and
thermal cover in
close proximity
Lowland
Conifer Aspen
Northern
Hardwood Other
0 1 km
http://www.landscapemodelling.net
Deer Distribution Regression
Deer Density = f(DLC, DBH)
Bayesian Model Averaging to select this ‘best’ model
http://www.landscapemodelling.net
Deer Distribution Example Deer Density – Original
Low
High
deer/km2
Lowland
Conifer
0 1 km
http://www.landscapemodelling.net
Deer Distribution Example Deer Density – Conifer Removal
Lowland
Conifer
0 1 km
Low
High
deer/km2
http://www.landscapemodelling.net
Simulation Model
USFS Forest
Vegetation Simulator
MSU Regeneration Model
7.0m
Tre
e H
eig
ht
Deer
Herbivory
Landscape Forest Structure
Forest Valuation
Timber
Harvest (light & seed
availability)
Site Quality (soil resources, competition)
http://www.landscapemodelling.net
Gap Regeneration Scenarios
100% Regeneration
100 years
10-year timestep
Year
http://www.landscapemodelling.net
Gap Regeneration Scenarios
0% Regeneration
100 years
10-year timestep
Year
http://www.landscapemodelling.net
Combined effects?
What are the combined effects of
variable regeneration and timber
management on songbirds and
timber production?
http://www.landscapemodelling.net
Bird Occupancy Probability
Occupancy Models (after MacKenzie et al.)
logit(p) = b0 + b1x1 + … bixi
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.8
1.0
0.6
Occupancy P
robabili
ty
Least Flycatcher
Black Throated
Green Warbler
0.0 12.5 25.0 37.5 50.0
Canopy Openness (%)
http://www.landscapemodelling.net
Bird Occupancy Probability
BTNW EAWP
LEFL RBGR
Canopy Openness (-ve)
SumDiam15m (+ve) Canopy Height (+ve)
Canopy Height (+ve)
Canopy Openness (+ve)
Basal Area (+ve)
SumDiam20m (+ve)
http://www.landscapemodelling.net
Integrated Simulation
Integrated forest management
Integrated simulation model: regeneration,
timber and deer
Millington et al. (2013)
http://www.landscapemodelling.net
Ongoing Modelling
Spatial-temporal co-ordination of timber and
wildlife management
Impact of variable snow at regional scale
http://www.landscapemodelling.net
Transferable Methods!
Statistical models
Logistic regression modelling
Categorical or probabilistic dependent variable
Land cover, species abundance
Risk models, Forecast models
Multi-model inference
Evaluating evidence for different combinations of
variables
http://www.landscapemodelling.net
Transferable Methods!
Simulation approaches
For dispersal, diffusion, random walk processes
Cellular Automata & GIS modelling
Grid models with specified rules of change
Risk mapping and change
Individual- or Agent-based modelling
For representing discrete entities
Human activity, animal distribution, plant migration
http://www.landscapemodelling.net