milk market situation brussels, 20 september 2012

43
Milk Market Situation Brussels, 20 September 2012

Upload: joana-burbridge

Post on 01-Apr-2015

215 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Milk Market Situation Brussels, 20 September 2012

Milk Market Situation

Brussels, 20 September 2012

Page 2: Milk Market Situation Brussels, 20 September 2012

20 September 2012 2

!!! Data from some Member States are confidential and are NOT included in this table !!!

EU Productions

Source: MS’ communications to Eurostat

EU-27 Deliveries/Productions development(Jan - Jun 2012 compared to Jan - Jun 2011)

Total Butter+ 3.6%

Cows' Milk Collected+ 1.9%

Skimmed-milk powder+ 5.2%

Milk powder cream, Whole milk powder and partly skimmed

milk powder- 2.6%

Cheese+ 1.5%

Fermented milk- 0.9%

-9% -7% -5% -3% -1% 1% 3% 5% 7% 9% 11% 13% 15%

Ev

olu

tio

n e

n %

.

Source : MS' Communications to Eurostat

EU-27 Deliveries/Production developments(Apr-Jun 12 compared to Apr-Jun 11)

Total Butter+ 2.6%

Skimmed-milk powder+ 3.8%

Milk powder cream, Whole milk powder and partly skimmed

milk powder+ 3.0%

Cheese+ 0.9%

Fermented milk- 1.4%

Cows' Milk Collected+ 0.9%

-8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16%

Ev

olu

tio

n e

n %

Source : MS' Communications to Eurostat

Page 3: Milk Market Situation Brussels, 20 September 2012

20 September 2012 3

-12.0% to -9.0% -9.0% to -6.0% -6.0% to -3.0% -3.0% to +0.0% +0.0% to +3.0% +3.0% to +6.0% +6.0% to +9.0% +9.0% to +12.0%

-0.2

-1.2

+7.4

+4.3

-0.2

+7.7

+0.6

+1.4+2.5

+2.4

-3.6

+3.2

+10.8

+7.5

+1.0

+9.7

0

+1.2

+4.7

+9.5

+3.4

+5.5+3.4

+7.6

+0.1

+1.1

+1.5

Source : MS' Communications to Eurostat

Page 4: Milk Market Situation Brussels, 20 September 2012

20 September 2012 4

-12.0% to -9.0% -9.0% to -6.0% -6.0% to -3.0% -3.0% to +0.0% +0.0% to +3.0% +3.0% to +6.0% +6.0% to +9.0% +9.0% to +12.0%

-1.8

-1.3

+7.3

+2.8

-2.1

+9.1

-0.7

+2.1+2.1

+2.3

-4.8

+1.4

+10.5

+7.1

-1.0

+11.0

0

-0.5

+3.7

+9.5

+3.4

+5.5+3.4

+7.6

+0.1

+1.1

+1.5

Source : MS' Communications to Eurostat

Page 5: Milk Market Situation Brussels, 20 September 2012

20 September 2012 5Source: MS’ communications to Eurostat

8 500

9 000

9 500

10 000

10 500

11 000

11 500

12 000

12 500

13 000

DecNovOctSepAugJ ulJ unMayAprMarFebJ an

100

0 to

nnes

Monthly Deliveries EU 27

2009 2010 2011 2012 average 2004-2008

Source : MS' Communications to Eurostat

Page 6: Milk Market Situation Brussels, 20 September 2012

20 September 2012 6

1 4

92

1 3

80

1 5

41

1 5

43

1 7

13

1 6

85

1 6

79

1 6

56

1 5

36

1 4

64

1 3

43

1 4

02

1 4

04

1 2

92

1 4

77

1 5

10

1 6

51

1 6

34

1 6

32

1 6

20

1 5

34

1 4

77

1 3

55

1 4

05

1 4

38

1 3

15

1 4

92

1 4

89

1 6

44

1 6

26

1 6

74

1 6

64

1 5

81

1 5

56

1 4

52

1 5

23

1 5

57

1 4

48

1 6

13

1 6

09

1 7

78

1 7

30

9 6

62

9 0

35

10

21

0

10

35

5

10

69

6

10

05

7

9 8

42

9 4

66

8 8

69

9 1

25

8 8

16

9 3

14

9 5

28

8 9

43 10

20

7

10

31

9

10

92

0

10

28

8

10

04

9

9 7

86

9 3

63

9 5

59

9 1

46

9 4

58

9 8

35

9 1

96 10

52

5

10

67

0

11

02

1

10

33

6

10

34

1

9 9

52

9 4

58

9 5

45

9 1

99

9 7

09

9 9

80

9 5

20

10

69

5

10

66

9

11

01

4

10

28

8

23

.36

21

.55

21

.06

21

.12

20

.93

20

.52

20

.99

21

.67

22

.10

22

.89 24

.84

25

.56

26

.05

26

.39

26

.68

26

.60

26

.00

25

.87

25

.99

26

.84

28

.25

28

.82

30

.12

30

.09

30

.44

30

.77

30

.96

31

.11

30

.93

30

.45

30

.48

30

.04

29

.60

30

.14

30

.44

30

.37

30

.33

31

.16

30

.85

29

.37

27

.82

26

.99

27

.03

30

.33

29

.52

27

.33

25

.06

24

.95

25

.18

25

.51

26

.32

26

.98

27

.57

29

.03

28

.81

29

.40

28

.98

28

.32

28

.41

29

.15

30

.25

31

.33

32

.53

33

.38

33

.50

33

.81

33

.74

33

.63

33

.72

33

.67

33

.32

33

.66

34

.35

34

.84

35

.09

35

.63

35

.71

35

.90

35

.42

35

.03

34

.88

33

.93

32

.61

31

.86

31

.51

31

.58

-

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

18 000

20 000

22 000

24 000

26 000

28 000

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Jan

09

Ma

r 09

Ma

y 09

Ju

l 09

Se

p 0

9

No

v 0

9

Jan

10

Ma

r 10

Ma

y 10

Ju

l 10

Se

p 1

0

No

v 1

0

Jan

11

Ma

r 11

Ma

y 11

Ju

l 11

Se

p 1

1

No

v 1

1

Jan

12

Ma

r 12

Ma

y 12

Ju

l 12

Pri

ces

in E

UR

/100

kg

Pro

du

ctio

ns

in 1

000

To

ns

EU 15/12 Milk Deliveries and Prices

Raw Milk Deliveries (EU-12)

Raw Milk Deliveries (EU-15)

Weighted average Milk price (EU-12)

Weighted average Milk price (EU-15)

Source : Eurostat, Reg. (EC) No 429/2010 Art. 3

Page 7: Milk Market Situation Brussels, 20 September 2012

20 September 2012 7Sources : MS’ communications under reg. 562/2005 & 479/2010, LTO website

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

48

50

Jun

01

Oct

01

Fe

b 0

2

Jun

02

Oct

02

Fe

b 0

3

Jun

03

Oct

03

Fe

b 0

4

Jun

04

Oct

04

Fe

b 0

5

Jun

05

Oct

05

Fe

b 0

6

Jun

06

Oct

06

Fe

b 0

7

Jun

07

Oct

07

Fe

b 0

8

Jun

08

Oct

08

Fe

b 0

9

Jun

09

Oct

09

Fe

b 1

0

Jun

10

Oct

10

Fe

b 1

1

Jun

11

Oct

11

Fe

b 1

2

Jun

12

EUR/100 kgMilk Prices Evolution (up to July 2012)

LTO Weighted Average Milk Price * (standardized 4.2% fat)

Weighted EU Average (real fat content)

EU Milk Equivalent Price (based on EU SMP and Butter prices)

Source :MS’ communications under reg. 562/2005 & 479/2010 + LTO : Land- en Tuinbouworganisatie Nederland

Page 8: Milk Market Situation Brussels, 20 September 2012

20 September 2012 8Source: MS’ communications under Reg. 479//2010

NB: The above national price averages are of mixed nature, some relate to standardised milk, others to milk with real fat and protein content, pending harmonisation under reg. 479/2010

Estimates for IT and CY

52.0

49.4

44.0 43.9

35.4 34.7

32.5 32.5 32.0 32.031.1 31.0

29.3 29.1 29.0 28.5 28.1 28.1 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.226.3

25.124.2

22.0

14

18

22

26

30

34

38

42

46

50

54

CY MT FI EL IT SE FR UK DK NL AT EU27

ES PT DE IE SI BG HU CZ PL EE LU SK BE LV RO LT

in E

UR

/10

0 k

g

EU Milk Prices(July 2012 compared to July 2011)

Milk Price 2011 Milk Price 2012

Page 9: Milk Market Situation Brussels, 20 September 2012

20 September 2012 9

Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010

150

175

200

225

250

275

300

325

350

375

400

425

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EU

R/1

00 k

g

Monthly EU SMP Prices

2009 2010 2011 2012 I P 2009

Page 10: Milk Market Situation Brussels, 20 September 2012

20 September 2012 10Source: MS’ communications under reg. 479/2010

281 277 276268 265 263

243 242 238231

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

SK FR BE DE LV EU 27 UK PL IE CZ

in E

UR

/10

0 k

g

EU SMP Prices(up to 16/09/2012)

Page 11: Milk Market Situation Brussels, 20 September 2012

20 September 2012 11

Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010

150

175

200

225

250

275

300

325

350

375

400

425

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EU

R/1

00 k

g

Monthly EU BUTTER Prices

2009 2010 20112012 I P 2009 Avg 2006-2008

Page 12: Milk Market Situation Brussels, 20 September 2012

388

340 339

320 318 314

298 295

266260 259

243

150

175

200

225

250

275

300

325

350

375

400

SK DE CZ NL BE EU 27 PL LV PT GB IE ES

EU

R/1

00 k

g

EU Butter Prices (up to 16.09.2012)

Butter Price of Reg. 479/2010

Butter Intervention price

20 September 2012 12

I.P. = 221.75

Source: MS’ communications under reg. 479/2010

Page 13: Milk Market Situation Brussels, 20 September 2012

20 September 2012 13

314.1

262.7

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

380

400

420

440

in E

UR/1

00 k

g

.

EU Quotations of Butter and SMP(EU average based on MS communication and weighted by production)

BUTTER SMP

Source: MS’ communications under reg. 562/2005 and 479/2010

Page 14: Milk Market Situation Brussels, 20 September 2012

20 September 2012 14Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010

150170190210230250270290310330350370390410

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Monthly EU WMP Prices

2009 2010 2011 2012 Avg 2006-2008

Page 15: Milk Market Situation Brussels, 20 September 2012

20 September 2012 15

Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010

180200220240260280300320340360380400420

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Monthly EU CHEDDAR Prices

2009 2010 2011 2012 Avg 2006-2008

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

380

400

420

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Monthly EU EDAM Prices

2009 2010 2011 2012 Avg 2006-2008

Page 16: Milk Market Situation Brussels, 20 September 2012

20 September 2012 16

Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010

20

40

60

80

100

120

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Monthly EU WheyPowder Prices

2011 2009 2010 2012 Avg 2006-2008

Page 17: Milk Market Situation Brussels, 20 September 2012

20 September 2012 17

USD/EUR

Source: European Central Bank

1.3002

Page 18: Milk Market Situation Brussels, 20 September 2012

20 September 2012 18

3 100

3 860

4 060

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

5 500

6 000

Jun

05

Sep

05

De

c 05

Mar

06

Jun

06

Sep

06

De

c 06

Mar

07

Jun

07

Sep

07

De

c 07

Mar

08

Jun

08

Sep

08

De

c 08

Mar

09

Jun

09

Sep

09

De

c 09

Mar

10

Jun

10

Sep

10

De

c 10

Mar

11

Jun

11

Sep

11

De

c 11

Mar

12

Jun

12

Pri

ces

in U

SD

/to

nn

e

EU/US/Oceania Quotations of Butter

Avg Oceania Butter quotation

Avg EU Butter internal Price

Avg US Butter quotation

Source: MS’ communications under regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010 & USDA market news

Page 19: Milk Market Situation Brussels, 20 September 2012

20 September 2012 19

3 250

3 250

3 600

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

5 500

Jun

05

Se

p 0

5

De

c 0

5

Ma

r 0

6

Jun

06

Se

p 0

6

De

c 0

6

Ma

r 0

7

Jun

07

Se

p 0

7

De

c 0

7

Ma

r 0

8

Jun

08

Se

p 0

8

De

c 0

8

Ma

r 0

9

Jun

09

Se

p 0

9

De

c 0

9

Ma

r 1

0

Jun

10

Se

p 1

0

De

c 1

0

Ma

r 1

1

Jun

11

Se

p 1

1

De

c 1

1

Ma

r 1

2

Jun

12

Pri

ce

s i

n U

SD

/to

nn

e

EU/US/Oceania Quotations of SMP

Avg Oceania SMP quotation

Avg EU SMP internal Price

Avg US SMP quotation

Source: MS’ communications under regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010 & USDA market news

Page 20: Milk Market Situation Brussels, 20 September 2012

20 September 2012 20

3 150

3 550 3 550

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

5 500

6 000

Jun

05

Sep

05

Dec

05

Mar

06

Jun

06

Sep

06

Dec

06

Mar

07

Jun

07

Sep

07

Dec

07

Mar

08

Jun

08

Sep

08

Dec

08

Mar

09

Jun

09

Sep

09

Dec

09

Mar

10

Jun

10

Sep

10

Dec

10

Mar

11

Jun

11

Sep

11

Dec

11

Mar

12

Jun

12

Pri

ces

in U

SD

/to

nn

e

EU/US/Oceania Quotations of WMP

Avg Oceania WMP quotation

Avg EU WMP internal Price

Avg US WMP quotation

Source: MS’ communications under regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010 & USDA market news

Page 21: Milk Market Situation Brussels, 20 September 2012

20 September 2012 21

EU/US/Oceania Quotations of Cheddar

3 550

4 680

4 070

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

5 500

6 000M

ay 0

5

Aug

05

Nov

05

Feb

06

May

06

Aug

06

Nov

06

Feb

07

May

07

Aug

07

Nov

07

Feb

08

May

08

Aug

08

Nov

08

Feb

09

May

09

Aug

09

Nov

09

Feb

10

May

10

Aug

10

Nov

10

Feb

11

May

11

Aug

11

Nov

11

Feb

12

May

12

Pri

ces

in U

SD

/to

nn

e

Avg OceaniaCheddar quotation

Avg EU Cheddar internal Price

Avg US Cheddar quotation

Source: MS’ communications under regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010 & USDA market news

Page 22: Milk Market Situation Brussels, 20 September 2012

20 September 2012 22

56 840 60 790

141 422

159 323

11 17622 208

37 509 30 696

0

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

140 000

160 000

180 000

2011 2012

BUTTER Exports

EU-27 (Jan - Jul)

New Zealand (Jan-Jul )

Australia (Jan-Jul )

United States (Jan-Jul )

Source: Eurostat Comext, Global Trade Information Service

Page 23: Milk Market Situation Brussels, 20 September 2012

20 September 2012 23

18 89713 391

85 340

111 485

9 9416 6706 981 1 851

0

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

140 000

2011 2012

BUTTEROIL Exports

EU-27 (Jan - Jul)

New Zealand (Jan-Jul )

Australia (Jan-Jul )

United States (Jan-Jul )

Source: Eurostat Comext, Global Trade Information Service

Page 24: Milk Market Situation Brussels, 20 September 2012

20 September 2012 24

283 325

344 848

212 937 207 038

86 718 90 672

255 068273 948

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

400 000

2011 2012

SMP ExportsEU-27 (Jan - Jul)New Zealand (Jan-Jul )Australia (Jan-Jul )United States (Jan-Jul )

Source: Eurostat Comext, Global Trade Information Service

Page 25: Milk Market Situation Brussels, 20 September 2012

20 September 2012 25

250 639243 999

668 410

766 847

65 517 60 885

11 068 13 2460

100 000

200 000

300 000

400 000

500 000

600 000

700 000

800 000

900 000

2011 2012

WMP Exports EU-27 (Jan - Jul)

New Zealand (Jan-Jul )

Australia (Jan-Jul )

United States (Jan-Jul )

Source: Eurostat Comext, Global Trade Information Service

Page 26: Milk Market Situation Brussels, 20 September 2012

20 September 2012 26

376 490

426 032

82 916.99 870

53 408 49 080

136 886163 895

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

400 000

450 000

500 000

2011 2012

CHEESESExports

EU-27 (Jan - Jul)

New Zealand (Jan-Jul )

Australia (Jan-Jul )

United States (Jan-Jul )

Source: Eurostat Comext, Global Trade Information Service

Page 27: Milk Market Situation Brussels, 20 September 2012

20 September 2012 27

EU Exports (1/2)

0

50

100

150

200

250

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

215194

164118 119 126

95

1000 Tonnes

BUTTER exports

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec

1000 tonnesBUTTER exports

2011

2012

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

19489

203 179231

379

518

1000 Tonnes

SMP exports

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec

1000 tonnesSMP exports

2011

2012

Page 28: Milk Market Situation Brussels, 20 September 2012

20 September 2012 28

EU Exports (2/2)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

546 584 596 555 578676 683

1000 Tonnes

CHEESE exports

0

100

200

300

400

500

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

493438

367

485 460 447390

1000 Tonnes

WMP exports

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec

1000 tonnesCHEESE exports

2011

2012

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec

1000 tonnesWMP exports

2011

2012

Page 29: Milk Market Situation Brussels, 20 September 2012

20 September 2012 29

19 497

39 934

3 220 2 442

42 182

25 886

11 363

16 082

3 546 4 261

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000

45 000

50 000

2011 2012

BUTTER Imports

EU-27 (Jan - Jul)United States (Jan-Jul )Russia (Jan-Jul )China (Jan-Jul )Algeria (Jan-Jul )

Page 30: Milk Market Situation Brussels, 20 September 2012

20 September 2012 30

1 858 2 590

479

5 210

13 216 14 239

10 153

16 943

4 774

3 0824 565 5 268

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

18 000

20 000

2011 2012

BUTTEROIL Imports

EU-27 (Jan - Jul)United States (Jan-Jul )Mexico (Jan-Jun )China (Jan-Jul )Russia (Jan-Jul )Algeria (Jan-Jul )

Page 31: Milk Market Situation Brussels, 20 September 2012

20 September 2012 31

260 448

21 16214 214

72 261

117 533

90 728

63 452

89 785

123 805

15 726 18 733

0

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

140 000

2011 2012

SMP ImportsEU-27 (Jan - Jul)Russia (Jan-Jul )China (Jan-Jul )Algeria (Jan-Jul )Mexico (Jan-Jun )Japan (Jan-Jul )

Page 32: Milk Market Situation Brussels, 20 September 2012

20 September 2012 32

422 1 264

140 672

112 645

3 513 4 365

251 607240 380

20 3426 750

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

2011 2012

WMP ImportsEU-27 (Jan - Jul)

Algeria (Jan-Jul )

United States (Jan-Jul )

China (Jan-Jul )

Mexico (Jan-Jun )

Page 33: Milk Market Situation Brussels, 20 September 2012

20 September 2012 33

37 92446 302

161 306 165 721

117 983131 080

77 819 75 428

42 088 45 623

16 538 22 415

0

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

140 000

160 000

180 000

2011 2012

CHEESESImports

EU-27 (Jan - Jul)Russia (Jan-Jul )Japan (Jan-Jul )United States (Jan-Jul )Mexico (Jan-Jun )China (Jan-Jul )

Page 34: Milk Market Situation Brussels, 20 September 2012

20 September 2012 34

Main Dairy Importers (Butter)

Up to Nov 20100

25

50

75

100

125

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

67

101

67 7550

67 66

1000 Tonnes

Russia

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1000 tonnes

Jan-Jul 2012 compared to 2011 : - 38.6%

2011

2012

0

25

50

75

100

125

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

32 34 31

87

1000 Tonnes

Egypt

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1000 tonnes

Jan-May 2012 compared to 2011 : + 55.5%

Page 35: Milk Market Situation Brussels, 20 September 2012

20 September 2012 35

Main Dairy Importers (S.M.P.)

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

155

111 121152 165 155

194

1000 Tonnes

Mexico

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1000 tonnes

Jan-Jun 2012 compared to 2011 : + 38%

2011

2012

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

8468

91 105 93 98129

1000 Tonnes

Algeria

0

5

10

15

20

25

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1000 tonnes

Jan-Jul 2012 compared to 2011 : - 30%

2011

2012

Page 36: Milk Market Situation Brussels, 20 September 2012

20 September 2012 36

Main Dairy Importers (W.M.P.)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

64 73 58 46

177

326 320

1000 Tonnes

China

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1000 tonnesJan-Jul 2012 compared to 2011 : - 4%

2011

2010

2012

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

167 182 160 153200

167204

1000 Tonnes

Algeria

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1000 tonnes

Jan-Mar 2012 compared to 2011 : - 24%

20112012

Page 37: Milk Market Situation Brussels, 20 September 2012

20 September 2012 37

Main Dairy Importers (Cheese – 1/2)

0

50

100

150

200

250

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

260218 234 248 229

294 296

1000 Tonnes

Russia

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1000 tonnes

Jan-Jul 2012 compared to 2011 : + 3%

20112012

0

50

100

150

200

250

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

212 207 225187 184 199 215

1000 Tonnes

Japan

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1000 tonnes

Jan-Jul 2012 compared to 2011 : + 11%

20112012

Page 38: Milk Market Situation Brussels, 20 September 2012

20 September 2012 38

Main Dairy Importers (Cheese – 2/2)

0

50

100

150

200

250

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

79 79 86 68 73 80 78

1000 Tonnes

Mexico

0

50

100

150

200

250

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

211 205 200171 162

138 143

1000 Tonnes

United States

0

5

10

15

20

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1000 tonnes

Jan-Jun 2012 compared to 2011 : + 8%

20112012

0

5

10

15

20

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1000 tonnes

Jan-Jul 2012 compared to 2011 : - 3%

2011

2012

Page 39: Milk Market Situation Brussels, 20 September 2012

20 September 2012 39

6 600

6 800

7 000

7 200

7 400

7 600

7 800

8 000

8 200

Jan

Fe

b

Ma

r

Apr

Ma

y

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec

in t

on

ne

s

.

Adjusted U.S. milk production (months of constant length)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Source:USDA

Jan-Jul 2012 compared to 2011 : + 3.2% (real monthly production)

Page 40: Milk Market Situation Brussels, 20 September 2012

20 September 2012 40

Source: Dairy Australia

500

600

700

800

900

1 000

1 100

1 200

Jul

Au

g

Sep Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Jun

in t

on

ne

s

.

Jul 2012/13 compared to 2011/12 : + 3.5%

Australian milk production

2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13

Page 41: Milk Market Situation Brussels, 20 September 2012

20 September 2012 41Source: DCANZ - Fonterra

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

Jun

Jul

Au

g

Sep Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

in t

on

ne

s

.

Jun 2012/2013 compared to 2011/12 : + 3.1%

NZ milk production

2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/2013

Page 42: Milk Market Situation Brussels, 20 September 2012

20 September 2012 42

Source: DCANZ - Fonterra

Monthly indicator of Argentina Milk Production

300.0

350.0

400.0

450.0

500.0

550.0

600.0

650.0

700.0

750.0

800.0

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Ju

n

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec

in t

ho

usa

nd

to

nn

es

.

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Source:Alimentos argentinosBased on an enquiry covering 65 % of total production

Jan-Jun 2012 compared to 2011 : + 8.5% (real monthly production)

Page 43: Milk Market Situation Brussels, 20 September 2012

20 September 2012 43

Prices

in US$/t Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13

Weighted average

price % change Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 ######

AMF n.a. 3 072 3 197 3 232 3 285 3 850 n.a. n.a. 3 199 - 9.4% - 9.9% - 8.2% - 10.4% - 9.2% - 7.9%

BMP n.a. 2 970 3 125 3 070 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 3 029 - 2.0% - 3.3% - 0.6% - 0.5%

Cheeses n.a. 3 795 3 411 3 757 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 3 589 - 0.1% + 2.8% - 3.4% + 3.8%

MPC70 n.a. 5 885 6 000 6 055 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 5 953 - 3.6% - 4.4% - 2.7% - 2.7%

Rennet Casein n.a. 8 078 8 210 8 210 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 8 145 + 4.1% + 3.1% + 5.9% + 4.3%

Lactose n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.

SMP 3 500 3 302 3 340 3 361 3 415 n.a. n.a. n.a. 3 339 + 4.0% - 4.6% + 4.7% + 3.7% + 2.6% + 7.0%

WMP 2 930 3 081 2 992 3 031 3 020 3 057 n.a. n.a. 3 036 + 1.9% + 0.4% + 3.5% + 0.2% + 1.3% + 0.1% - 0.3%

18.09.2012 1 € = 1.2336 $ (ECB rate)

in €/t Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13

Weighted average

price

AMF 2 490 2 592 2 620 2 663 3 121 #VALUE! #VALUE! 2 593BMP 2 489 2 549 2 501 2 505Cheese 3 076 2 765 3 045 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 2 909MPC70 4 771 4 864 4 908 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 4 826Rennet Casein 6 548 6 655 6 655 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 6 603Lactose 6 343SMP 2 837 2 676 2 707 2 725 2 768 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 2 707WMP 2 375 2 498 2 426 2 457 2 448 2 478 #VALUE! #VALUE! 2 461

Source : http://www.globaldairytrade.info/

% change by contract from previous auction

Results of the Fonterra Auction of 18.09.2012