milk market situation · 4 521 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000 3 500 4 000 4 500 5 000 5 500 6 000 6 500 7...
TRANSCRIPT
Milk Market Situation
Brussels, 12 December 2019
!!! Data from some Member States are confidential and are NOT included in this table !!!
12 December 2019
-4.0% to -1.9%
-1.9% to -1.4%
-1.4% to -0.9%
-0.9% to 0.0%
0.0% to +1.0%
+1.0% to +2.0%
+2.0% to +2.4%
+2.4% to +9.0%
n/a+2.3
+0.1
-1.6
+0.4
-0.3
+2.0
+8.0
+1.0+0.9
-0.7
-0.9
+3.8
+0.4
-0.5
+2.4
+1.4
+4.1
-1.8
-2.0
+2.0
-1.0
+1.9
-2.1
-1.0
-1.4
-1.9
+2.4
Source : MS' Communications to Eurostat, FEGA, AGEA, Reg.479/2010.1(a)1
-3.9
DE, EL, HR, CY and SE figures based on MS notifications to DG AGRI - estimation for IT
12 December 2019
10000
11000
12000
13000
14000
15000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1000 Tonnes
EU - Cows' milk collected
2016
2017
2018
2019
Jan-Sep 2019/18 : +0.4%
Last update : Jan-SepSource : Estat - Newcronos
Jan-Sep 2019/18 : + 0.4%
Estimations for EL
12 December 2019
34.9
34.0
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
50
Jan 0
1
Jan 0
2
Jan 0
3
Jan 0
4
Jan 0
5
Jan 0
6
Jan 0
7
Jan 0
8
Jan 0
9
Jan 1
0
Jan 1
1
Jan 1
2
Jan 1
3
Jan 1
4
Jan 1
5
Jan 1
6
Jan 1
7
Jan 1
8
Jan 1
9
EUR/100 kgEU Raw Milk Prices Evolution (up to October 2019)
Weighted EU Average (real fat content)
EU Milk Equiv. Price (based on SMP and Butter prices)
Source : MS’ communications under Reg. (EU) No 2017/1185 Article 12(a) - Annex II.4(a)
* : provisional figures
12 December 2019
58.0
52.1
39.7
39.6
38.2
37.7
36.6
36.4
35.0
35.0
34.9
34.8
34.7
34.0
33.7
33.7
33.5
33.3
32.7
32.5
32.1
31.7
31.6
31.4
31.0
30.8
30.5
29.4
28.7
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
CY MT IT FI GR FR IE* AT SE LU EU NL DE DK SI HR BE CZ SK UK* ES RO HU PL BG PT EE LT LV
in E
UR
/1
00
kg
E U M I L K P R I C E S
Milk price 2018
Milk price 2019
Source : Member States (Regulation (EU) No 2017/1185 Article 12(a) - Annex II.4(a))
( Oct 2019 vs Oct 2018 )
* : estimated figures for Oct 2019
Source: MS’ communications under Reg. 479//2010
NB: The above national price averages are of mixed nature, some relate to standardised milk,
others to milk with real fat and protein content, pending harmonisation under reg. 479/2010
12 December 2019
Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010
12 December 2019
100
150
200
250
300
350Ja
n
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
EU
R/1
00 k
g
Weekly EU SMP Prices
2016 2017 2018 2019 IP 2009
Latest price : 249 EUR/100kg
Evolution compared to same period last year : +54%
12 December 2019
Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010
12 December 2019
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700Ja
n
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
EU
R/1
00 k
g
Weekly EU BUTTER Prices
2016 2017 2018 2019 IP 2009
Evolution compared to same period last year : -21%
Latest price : 366 EUR/100kg
I.P. = 221.75
12 December 2019
366
249
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan 19
in E
UR/100 k
g
.
EU Quotations of Butter and SMP(EU average based on MS communication and weighted by production)
Butter Intervention buying in price SMP Intervention buying in price
BUTTER prices SMP prices
Source: MS’ communications under reg. 562/2005 and 479/2010
12 December 2019
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
Jan 0
3
Jan 0
4
Jan 0
5
Jan 0
6
Jan 0
7
Jan 0
8
Jan 0
9
Jan 1
0
Jan 1
1
Jan 1
2
Jan 1
3
Jan 1
4
Jan 1
5
Jan 1
6
Jan 1
7
Jan 1
8
Jan 1
9
in E
UR/1
00 k
g
EU Dairy Quotations
(EU Average Prices based on MS communication and weighted by production)
BUTTER
SMP
WMP
CHEDDAR
Source: Regulation (EU) No 2017/1185 Article 11 - Annex I.7
12 December 2019
Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010
150
200
250
300
350
400
450Ja
n
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
EU
R/1
00 k
g
Weekly EU WMP Prices
2016 2017 2018 2019
Evolution compared to same period last year : +12%
Latest price : 304 EUR/100kg
12 December 2019
Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
EU
R/1
00 k
g
Weekly EU CHEDDAR Prices
2016 2017 2018 2019
Evolution compared to same period last year : +1%
Latest price : 318 EUR/100kg
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
EU
R/100 k
g
Weekly EU EDAM Prices
2016 2017 2018 2019
Evolution compared to same period last year : -1%
Latest price : 314 EUR/100kg
12 December 2019
Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
EU
R/1
00 k
g
Weekly EU WheyPowder Prices
2016 2017 2018 2019 Series2
Evolution compared to same period last year : -3%
Latest price : 81 EUR/100kg
12 December 2019
12 December 2019
100 477
4 331 2 743 1 260 749 182 20 0 0
-150 000
-100 000
-50 000
0
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 000
300 000
350 000
400 000
Qu
anti
ty in
to
nn
es
Public SMP Intervention scheme (2018-2019)Buying-in quantity & stocks
Quantities In (2019) Quantities Out (2019) Quantity offered (2019)
Stocks level end of month (2019) Stocks level end of month (2018)
0
12 December 2019
1.1094
EUR/USD
3 050
2 6952 700
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
4 500
5 000
5 500
6 000Jul 12
Oct 1
2
Jan 1
3
Apr
13
Jul 13
Oct 1
3
Jan 1
4
Apr
14
Jul 14
Oct 1
4
Jan 1
5
Apr
15
Jul 15
Oct 1
5
Jan 1
6
Apr
16
Jul 16
Oct 1
6
Jan 1
7
Apr
17
Jul 17
Oct 1
7
Jan 1
8
Apr
18
Jul 18
Oct 1
8
Jan 1
9
Apr
19
Jul 19
Oct 1
9
Prices in U
SD
/tonne
EU/US/Oceania Quotations of SMP
Avg Oceania SMP quotation
Avg EU SMP internal Price
Avg US SMP quotation
Source: MS’ communications under Reg. 2017/1185 & USDA market news
12 December 2019
12 December 2019
3 3253 343
3 880
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
4 500
5 000
5 500
6 000
Jul 12
Oct 1
2
Jan 1
3
Apr
13
Jul 13
Oct 1
3
Jan 1
4
Apr
14
Jul 14
Oct 1
4
Jan 1
5
Apr
15
Jul 15
Oct 1
5
Jan 1
6
Apr
16
Jul 16
Oct 1
6
Jan 1
7
Apr
17
Jul 17
Oct 1
7
Jan 1
8
Apr
18
Jul 18
Oct 1
8
Jan 1
9
Apr
19
Jul 19
Oct 1
9
Prices in U
SD
/tonne
EU/US/Oceania Quotations of WMP
Avg Oceania WMP quotation
Avg EU WMP internal Price
Avg US WMP quotation
Source: MS’ communications under Reg. 2017/1185 & USDA market news
12 December 2019
4 113
4 076
4 521
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
4 500
5 000
5 500
6 000
6 500
7 000
7 500
8 000
8 500
Jul 12
Oct 1
2
Jan 1
3
Apr
13
Jul 13
Oct 1
3
Jan 1
4
Apr
14
Jul 14
Oct 1
4
Jan 1
5
Apr
15
Jul 15
Oct 1
5
Jan 1
6
Apr
16
Jul 16
Oct 1
6
Jan 1
7
Apr
17
Jul 17
Oct 1
7
Jan 1
8
Apr
18
Jul 18
Oct 1
8
Jan 1
9
Apr
19
Jul 19
Oct 1
9
Prices in U
SD
/tonne
EU/US/Oceania Quotations of Butter
Avg Oceania Butter quotation
Avg EU Butter internal Price
Avg US Butter quotation
Source: MS’ communications under Reg. 2017/1185 & USDA market news
12 December 2019
3 788
4 069
3 502
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
4 500
5 000
5 500
6 000Jul 12
Oct 1
2
Jan 1
3
Apr
13
Jul 13
Oct 1
3
Jan 1
4
Apr
14
Jul 14
Oct 1
4
Jan 1
5
Apr
15
Jul 15
Oct 1
5
Jan 1
6
Apr
16
Jul 16
Oct 1
6
Jan 1
7
Apr
17
Jul 17
Oct 1
7
Jan 1
8
Apr
18
Jul 18
Oct 1
8
Jan 1
9
Apr
19
Jul 19
Oct 1
9
Prices in U
SD
/tonne
EU/US/Oceania Quotations of Cheddar
Avg OceaniaCheddar quotation
Avg EU Cheddar internal Price
Avg US Cheddar quotation
Source: MS’ communications under Reg. 2017/1185 & USDA market news
337325
126
151
55 4837
252113
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2018 2019
10
00
to
nn
es
Butter & ButteroilExports
New Zealand (up to Sep)
EU-28 (up to Sep)
Belarus (up to Aug)
United States (up to Sep)
Ukraine (up to Aug)
623649
267 278
234 244
134155
125 116
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2018 2019
10
00
to
nn
es
Cheese Exports
EU-28 (up to Sep)
United States (up to Sep)
New Zealand (up to Sep)
Belarus (up to Aug)
Australia (up to Sep)
12 December 2019
596
762
556
495
228257
110 9495
00
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2018 2019
1000
ton
nes
S.M.P. Exports
EU-28 (up to Sep)
United States (up to Sep)
New Zealand (up to Sep)
Australia (up to Sep)
Mexico (up to Aug)
882
1 015
267226
92 9972
4144 31
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
2018 2019
1000
ton
nes
W.M.P. Exports
New Zealand (up to Sep)
EU-28 (up to Sep)
Uruguay (up to Sep)
Argentina (up to Sep)
Australia (up to Sep)
12 December 2019
EU-28 Exports (1/2)
Source : Eurostat (COMEXT)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
102 102
120
135
162
137128
1000 Tonnes
BUTTER exports
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1000 tonnes
Jan- Sep 2019 exports compared to 2018 : + 28%
BUTTER exports
2018
2019
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
520
407
648695
579
780816
1000 TonnesSMP exports
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1000 tonnes
Jan- Sep 2019 exports compared to 2018 : + 28%
SMP exports
2018
2019
12 December 2019
EU-28 Exports (2/2)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
768 786721 719
799828 832
1000 Tonnes
CHEESE exports
0
100
200
300
400
500
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
386 374390 401
382 393
334
1000 TonnesWMP exports
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1000 tonnes
Jan- Sep 2019 exports compared to 2018 : + 4%
CHEESE exports
2018
2019
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1000 tonnes
Jan- Sep 2019 exports compared to 2018 : - 15%
WMP exports
2018
2019
12 December 2019
211
229
159
174
124132
95101
85
0
50
100
150
200
250
2 018 2 019
1000
ton
nes
Cheese Imports
Japan (up to Sep)
Russia (up to Aug)
United States (up to Sep)
South Korea (up to Sep)
Mexico (up to Aug)
96
61
54
75
34
45
26 2424 26
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2 018 2 019
10
00
to
nn
es
Butter & ButteroilImports
China (up to Sep)
Russia (up to Aug)
United States (up to Sep)
Australia (up to Sep)
Philippines (up to Aug)
12 December 2019
418
511
150
n/a
80 7863 63
48 55
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2 018 2 019
1000
ton
nes
W.M.P.Imports
China (up to Sep)
Algeria (no data 2019)
Hong Kong (up to Sep)
Sri Lanka (up to Sep)
Thailand (up to Sep)
239
209
272
109
133
104
n/a
97
125
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2 018 2 019
1000
ton
nes
S.M.P. Imports
Mexico (up to Aug)
China (up to Sep)
Philippines (up to Aug)
Algeria (no data 2019)
Indonesia (up to Aug)
12 December 2019
Main Dairy Importers (Butter + Butteroil 1/2)
0
25
50
75
100
125
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
48 52
80 7182
92113
1000 Tonnes
China
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1000 tonnes
Jan-Sep 2019 compared to 2018 : - 36%
2018
2016
2019
0
25
50
75
100
125
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
68
136 139
96 105 9887
1000 Tonnes
Russia
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1000 tonnes
Jan-Aug 2019 compared to 2018 : + 38%
2018
2019
2019
12 December 2019
Main Dairy Importers (Butter + Butteroil 2/2)
0
25
50
75
100
125
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
21 21 23 21 29 34 40
1000 Tonnes
Australia
0
25
50
75
100
125
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
18 14 2240 47 43
57
1000 Tonnes
United States
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1000 tonnes Jan-Sep 2019 compared to 2018 : - 11%
2018
2019
Jan-Sep 2019 compared to 2018 : - 11%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1000 tonnes
Jan-Sep 2019 compared to 2018 : + 31%
2018
20162019
Jan-Sep 2019 compared to 2018 : + 31%
2019
12 December 2019
Main Dairy Importers (S.M.P. - 1/2)
Notice: for confidentiality reasons, 2019 data for Mexico may be incomplete.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
236198 203
259 286331
360
1000 Tonnes
Mexico
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1000 tonnes
2018
2019
2019
0
50
100
150
200
250
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
168
235 253
200 184
247 280
1000 Tonnes
China
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1000 tonnes
Jan-Sep 2019 compared to 2018 : + 30%
2018
2017
Jan-Sep 2019 compared to 2018 : + 30%
2019
Jan-Jul 2019 compared to 2018 : n/a
12 December 2019
Main Dairy Importers (S.M.P. – 2/2)
0
50
100
150
200
250
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
106 11395 101
185154 159
1000 Tonnes
Philippines
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1000 tonnes
2018
2014
Jan-Aug 2019 compared to 2018 : + 21%
2016
2019
2019
0
5
10
15
20
25
1000 tonnes
Jan-Aug 2019 compared to 2018 : + 29%
2009
2010
0
50
100
150
200
250
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
136155 146 145 159 147 160
1000 Tonnes
Indonesia
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1000 tonnes
Jan-Aug 2019 compared to 2018 : + 29%
2018
2019
12 December 2019
Main Dairy Importers (W.M.P. 1/2)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
406
619671
347420 470 521
1000 Tonnes
China
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1000 tonnes
Jan-Sep 2019 compared to 2018 : + 22%
2018
2019
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
188142
204 224 224262
150
1000 Tonnes
Algeria
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1000 tonnes
2018
2017 2019
12 December 2019
Main Dairy Importers (W.M.P. 2/2)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
71 59 60 72 85 85 87
1000 Tonnes
Sri Lanka
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
64 74 81 75 86 87 104
1000 Tonnes
Hong Kong
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1000 tonnes
Jan-Sep 2019 compared to 2018 : - 1%
20182019
0
5
10
15
20
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1000 tonnesJan-Sep 2019 compared to 2018 : - 2%
2018
2013 2016
Jan-Sep 2019 compared to 2018 : - 2%
2019
12 December 2019
Main Dairy Importers (Cheese – 1/2)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
235 236 232 249 258 273 286
1000 Tonnes
Japan
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1000 tonnes
Jan-Sep 2019 compared to 2018: + 9%
2018
2016 2017
2019
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
316440
321
209 223 226 250
1000 Tonnes
Russia
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1000 tonnes
Jan-Aug 2019 compared to 2018: + 10%
2018
2019
12 December 2019
Main Dairy Importers (Cheese – 2/2)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
78 85 97 112 110 125 124
1000 Tonnes
South Korea
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
154 148 165200 205 183 176
1000 Tonnes
United States
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1000 tonnes
Jan-Sep 2019 compared to 2018: + 6%
2018
2019
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1000 tonnes
Jan-Sep 2019 compared to 2018: + 6%
20182019
12 December 2019
7 000
7 200
7 400
7 600
7 800
8 000
8 200
8 400
8 600
8 800Jan
Fe
b
Ma
r
Apr
Ma
y
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
in 1
000 t
on
ne
s
U.S. milk production
2016
2017
2018
2019
Source:USDA
Jan-Oct 2019 compared to 2018 : + 0.3%
12 December 2019
Source: Dairy Australia
500
600
700
800
900
1 000
1 100
1 200
Ju
l
Au
g
Sep
Oc
t
No
v
Dec
Ja
n
Fe
b
Ma
r
Ap
r
Ma
y
Ju
n
in 1
000 t
on
ne
s
Jul-Oct 2019/20 compared to 2018/19 : - 5.8%
Australian milk production
2016/17
2017/18
2018/19
2019/20
12 December 2019
Source: DCANZ - Fonterra
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
Ju
n
Ju
l
Au
g
Sep
Oc
t
No
v
Dec
Ja
n
Fe
b
Ma
r
Ap
r
Ma
y
in 1
000 t
on
ne
s
.
Jun-Oct 2019/20 compared to 2018/19 : - 0.7%
NZ milk production
2016/17
2017/18
2018/19
2019/20
12 December 2019
GDT Auction results
Average price (USD/MT, FAS)
Event 2493 December 2019
-0.5%
$3 467
Event 2493 December 2019
-0.5%
$3 467
Butter
-4.9%$ 3 983
Butter MilkPowder
+1.6%$ 2 846
Cheddar
+2.7%$ 3 797
Anhydrous Milk Fat
-5.1%$ 4 840
Butter
-4.9%$ 3 983
Butter MilkPowder
+1.6%$ 2 846
Cheddar
+2.7%$ 3 797
Lactose
n.a.$ 779
Rennet Casein
+4.9%$ 8 047
Skim MilkPowder
+1.9%$ 3 068
Lactose
n.a.$ 779
Rennet Casein
+4.9%$ 8 047
Skim MilkPowder
+1.9%$ 3 068
Whole MilkPowder
+0.1%$ 3 331
12 December 2019