military aircraft fleet and mro forecast

2013 Military Fleet Forecast

Copyright © 2013, Aviation Week

Fleet EvolutionFleet MRO Requirements

2014 Military Aircraft Forecast


Copyright © 2014, Aviation Week 2

2014 Aviation Week Forecasts

2012 – Aviation Week expands data staff and product offerings to include fleet expertise and MRO Analytics

January 2013 – Release of first Aviation Week Fleet and MRO Forecasts

August 2013– Aviation Week acquired by Penton ‐ a professional information services company with product lines in sixteen markets.

What’s ahead – continuous improvement ; product development ‐ “Fleet Discovery”



Aviation Week Intelligence Analysis

The 2014 forecast combinesAviation Week’s four decades of fleet inventory data Worldwide network of information feeds on operational fleetsMaintenance, repair, overhaul schedules, data and trendsGlobal industrial capacityEditorial insight and broad‐based market perspectiveExclusions:

Chinese/Russian‐origin aircraft (unless with Western engines) Piston‐powered Light Aircraft/Helicopters UAVs

How we did it – The Methodology



Headlines and Trends

Whole fleets set to disappear from US inventories Legacy fleets being withdrawn by wealthier nations, but set for

many more years service elsewhere Industry forecast to deliver close to 8,000 aircraft in next 10 years. Fighter/Attack and Trainers to be worth some $28 billion in

Airframe maintenance in the next five years alone Rotary Wing transport aircraft to lead deliveries for the decade Global Military Aircraft MRO requirements 2015‐2024 forecast at

$670 billion, almost 50% of this in Field Maintenance



In‐Service Aircraft Snapshot By Category

Rotary‐Wing Transports/Utility lead the way

Global Military In‐service Aircraft Share by Role

23%

4%

6%

37%

4%

1%

16%

1% 8%

Fighter / Attack

General Aviation/Util ity

Rotary Wing ‐ Attack

Rotary Wing ‐ Transport / Utility

Special Mission

Tanker

Trainer / Light Attack

Transport ‐ Heavy

Transport ‐ Lt/Med



10‐Year Military Aircraft MRO Forecast

Projected MRO requirements by aircraft OEM Boeing, Lockheed Martin aircraft clear leaders in MRO requirements, followed in distant third by Sikorsky. Bell‐Boeing’s V‐22 : just under $15B requirement projected for 10‐year period, keeping Bell in fourth place. Eurofighter: a single‐platform OEM but still in the top 10 thanks to continuing production for several years

Aircraft Manufacturer MRO Requirements (US$ millions)

Boeing $ 224,303

Lockheed‐Martin $ 144,168

Sikorsky $ 72,360

Bell/Bell‐Boeing $ 38,619

Airbus Helicopters $ 22,446

Northrop‐Grumman $ 17,129

Dassault $ 17,913

Beechcraft $ 11,380

Eurofighter $ 10,662

CASA $ 9,035



Fighter/Attack Fleet Activity

• While North America and Europe clearly lead the market share for fighter/attack aircraft, both show net decline for the decade.

• Asia Pacific also expects decrease in fighter/attack aircraft fleets for the decade while the Middle East fleets show an increase.

North America’s Fighter/Attack fleet remains the largest

Region 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

North America 3318 3181 3141 3080 3007 2985 2956 2939 2922 2905

Europe 2218 2214 2186 2130 2084 2066 2032 2015 1991 1928

Asia Pacific 1718 1715 1711 1715 1708 1690 1690 1654 1665 1656

Middle East 930 972 1017 1062 1080 1079 1073 1067 1060 1054

Africa 346 336 328 328 328 328 328 328 328 328

Latin America 204 210 208 214 220 226 232 238 244 244

Unknown 22 44 64 82 90 98 98 98 98 123



Fighter/Attack MRO Market

• Europe sees slight net drop in MRO requirements over the 10‐year period.

• North America slight dip before recovery• Middle East, Asia Pacific both show slow

growth

Total requirements expected to reach $228B

Year 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

North America 9,464 9,124 9,192 9,271 9,310 9,350 9,364 9,399 9,432 9,462

Europe 5,254 5,292 5,274 5,178 5,076 5,067 5,013 5,006 4,982 4,846

Asia Pacific 3,969 4,010 4,056 4,110 4,136 4,130 4,162 4,074 4,150 4,186

Middle East 2,439 2,569 2,709 2,859 2,958 3,006 3,048 3,089 3,128 3,170

Africa 776 778 782 798 814 830 847 864 881 899

Latin America 367 380 383 397 412 427 443 459 475 485

Unknown 31 72 114 152 166 180 184 187 191 246

Projected Annual MRO Requirements by Region 2015-2024 (US$ millions)

AfricaAsia Pacific

Europe

Latin AmericaMiddle East

North America

Unknown AfricaAsia PacificEuropeLatin AmericaMiddle EastNorth AmericaUnknown

Figures in US$ millions



Rotary Wing Analysis

Aviation Week Trends, Headlines Global Military Rotary Wing MRO Market 2015‐2024 should hit $229 billion

Attack Helicopter MRO requirements projected at $55 billion, Transport/Utility at $174 billion

Global Military Rotary Wing MRO requirements expected to remain stable through 2015, then drop as drawdown from front‐line takes effect

Sikorsky commands the Transport market; Boeing dominates Attack market with Apache

Total net increase for 2015‐2024 in Attack In‐Service Fleet forecast at 465 Total net increase in Transport/Utility In‐Service Fleet for decade almost

1500



Attack Rotary Wing Fleet Forecast

Attack Helicopter market by OEM

OEM Rotorcraft Family Engines

Agusta‐Westland A109 Pratt & Whitney Canada PW200

A129 MangustaLHTEC (Rolls‐Royce/Honeywell) CTS800 / Rolls‐Royce GEM

WAH‐64D Turbomeca RTM322

Airbus Helicopters Tiger Turbomeca MTR390

Bell Helicopter AH‐1 Cobra Honeywell T53

AH‐1W Super Cobra GE T700

AH‐1Z Zulu/Viper GE T700

Boeing AH‐64D/E GE T700

MD Helicopters AH‐6I/J Rolls‐Royce A250 Series 4



Attack Rotary Wing Fleet Forecast

Attack Rotary Wing In‐Service Fleet

U.S., commands half the market, but only shows a net increase of ~ 70 helicopters over the decade. Middle East set to acquire ~ 130 attack helicopters during decade (eg. RSLF, QAF AH‐64s) Asia Pacific, Europe expected to add ~60 attack helicopters each (eg. THK A129, IAF AH64)

10-Year Forecast Attack Rotor Wing In-Service Fleet

2,1882,265

2,3342,406

2,4612,501 2,526 2,552 2,576 2,598

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024



Attack Rotary Wing MRO Forecast

$55 Billion Value for Attack Rotary Wing MRO Requirements

MRO Requirements by Region 2015‐2024($US millions)

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

NorthAmerica

Europe Asia Pacific Middle East Africa &Unknown



Attack Rotary Wing MRO Forecast

Global Market $55B for 2015‐2024

Apache forecast for highest demand, followed by AH‐1. Field Maintenance continues as highest expense category, followed by Components. MRO requirements steadily increasing with new deliveries and longevity of legacy fleets

Aircraft OEMAirframe Maintenance

Component Maintenance

Engine Maintenance

Field Maintenance

Agusta‐Westland 220 505 126 1,468

Airbus Helicopters 380 843 190 2,124

Bell Helicopter 1,383 2,401 619 6,187

Boeing 5,120 10,644 2,179 18,102

MD Helicopters 667 44 24 897

Westland 184 356 79 823

MRO Requirements 2015-2024 by Rotor Wing Family

0%4%

3%

6%

3%

19%

65%

A109

A129

AH-1AH-64

H369

TIGER

WAH-64D




Transport/Utility Rotary Wing Fleet

Top Three Aircraft OEM Utilization by Region

Africa Asia Pacific Europe Latin America Middle East North America

Airbus Helicopters Bell Helicopter Airbus Helicopters Bell Helicopter Sikorsky Sikorsky

Agusta‐Bell Sikorsky Agusta‐Bell Airbus Helicopters Airbus Helicopters Bell Helicopter

Agusta‐Westland Airbus Helicopters Agusta‐Westland Sikorsky Bell Helicopter Boeing



Transport/Utility Rotary Wing Fleet

Bell Boeing V‐22 Projections 2015‐2024

360 MV‐22 due to USMC, 51 CV‐22s to USAF Special Operations Command. 220 V‐22 in operation as of Dec 2013; 36 due delivery this year, 21 in 2015 Multi‐year contract mid‐2013 for 93 Marine and 7 USAF a/c in FY13‐17. First export sales to Israel (6) Steadily replacing CH‐46E. Further sales to Japan, UAE and more for Israel in pipeline

V-22 Projected Deliveries

22 22 2220

17

13 12 12 12 12

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024



Transport/Utility Rotary Wing MRO Requirements

$20 Billion annual MRO Requirements by 2024

Steady growth across the decade as overall in‐service fleet increases by around 1400 Largest fleet increases expected in S‐70/UH‐60, NH90, CH‐47, V‐22, Bell 412 plus potentially HAL Dhruv and KAI Surion

MRO Spend 2015‐2024 (US$ millions)

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024



Special Mission Fleet Data

• Special Mission includes Bombers,EA, ISR, AEW, ASW etc.• P‐3 still accounts for 20% of the in‐service fleet over this decade.• B‐1 & B‐52 soldier on; LRS‐B still at least decade away• P‐8 grows to just under 9% of the in‐service fleet by 2021.

In‐Service Fleets by Region

Region 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

North America 687 645 656 654 652 655 658 653 648 639

Asia Pacific 323 323 321 314 314 314 311 308 305 302

Europe 233 232 231 232 232 232 232 232 232 232

Latin America 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85

Middle East 48 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46

Africa 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41

Unknown 0 0 3 6 9 12 12 12 12 12



Special Mission Aircraft MRO

• Total Value of MRO for the decade should reach $59 billion.

• North America leads MRO requirements for Special Mission aircraft.

• Asia Pacific expected to hold #2 position in requirements, ahead of Europe.

• North American requirements show small decline before small growth later in the decade.

MRO Requirements by Region

Special Mission MRO Spend by Region 2015-2024 (US$millions)

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000

Unknown

Africa

Middle East

Latin America

Europe

Asia Pacific

North America



Military Tanker Fleet

• New tankers deliver at steady pace in later years of decade; plan is to deliver 55 KC‐46As (767) by 2019; total USAF buy is expected to be 179.

• Still almost 300 KC‐135 aircraft at the end of the decade, while 59 KC‐10s will begin retiring in 2016 if sequestration is not lifted.

KC‐135s continue as backbone

Year 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

North America 445 438 438 438 438 438 438 438 438 438

Europe 42 44 45 47 49 51 53 55 56 56

Asia Pacific 18 20 24 28 30 30 30 30 30 30

Middle East 18 20 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23

Latin America 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13

Unknown 0 2 4 6 8 8 8 8 8 8

Tankers: Yearly Average Installed Base by Aircraft Type

61%11%

11%

8%

3%

3%

3%

KC-135KC-10767A330707C-130Other



Military Tanker MRO Forecast

• Forecast predicts slow build beginning in 2015, until it steadies late in the decade

• While North American requirements dominates, growth scheduled for all regions throughout decade.

Tanker Airframe MRO Market for decade set to hit $19B

Tanker MRO Spend Forecast 2015-2024 (US$millions)

129

294

593

648

1,248

16,566

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000

Unknown

Latin America

Asia Pacific

Middle East

Europe

North America



Military Tanker MRO Forecast

• Field & airframe maintenance continue to lead MRO requirements.

• Flight Deck Avionics & Mission Avionics combine to almost $300m of MRO forecast for tankers for 2015‐2024.

KC‐46 becomes more significant as deliveries start in 2017Tanker MRO Spend by Category

Airframe Maintenance

32%

Engine Maintenance

14%

Field Maintenance

44%


10%


Aircraft FamilyAirframe Maintenance

Engine Maintenance

Field Maintenance


KC‐135/C‐135 4,382 2,073 5,309 1,339

KC‐10 1,212 288 949 260

KC‐46/767 264 150 949 159

707 150 65 288 86

A330 96 69 580 78

C‐130 61 48 253 53

A310 9 6 62 8

S‐2 5 2 62 22

Totals 6,179 2,702 8,453 2,005



Trainer / Light Attack Fleet Forecast

• T‐6, Tucano, T‐38 continue as mainstays of trainer fleets.

• Hawk/T‐45 combine to be the most numerous Light Fighter

• Trainer numbers largely unscathed by sequestration.

Texans maintain highest share of in‐service fleet

Trainer/Light Attack In‐Service Fleet

Year Totals

2015 5984

2016 5969

2017 5937

2018 5918

2019 5906

2020 5911

2021 5924

2022 5935

2023 5939

2024 5943

Trainer/Light Attack Fleet Composition

T‐615%

TUCANO9%

T‐389%

PC‐77%

HAWK7%

K‐85%

F‐55%

PC‐94%

Other29%

T‐43%

T‐453%

ALPHAJET4%



Trainer / Light Attack MRO Forecast

• Asia Pacific shows largest $$ increase during the decade, with Middle East showing largest % increase.

• European demand drops by more than any other region during same period, forecast at over $70m decline.

Trainer / Light Attack MRO requirements to near $32B for decade

Trainer/Light Attack MRO Spend by Region 2015-2024 (US$millions)

825

2,573

2,663

2,776

4,879

8,764

10,292

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000

Unknown

Middle East

Latin America

Africa

Europe

Asia Pacific

North America



Transport Aircraft MRO Requirements

Heavy Transport MRO requirements focuses on Airframe Maintenance

Heavy Transports MRO Spend by Expense Category

ENGINE MAINTENANCE

18%

AIRFRAME MAINTENANCE

38%

FIELD MAINTENANCE28%

COMPONENT MAINTENANCE

16%

• Heavy Transport MRO requirement for decade projected at $22 billion.

• Airframe events largest expense over decade, followed by field maintenance.

• Engine maintenance requirements at $3.95B 2015‐2024

• US vast majority of all requirements due to C‐17, C‐5 fleets

Heavy Transports MRO Spend by Expense Category

ENGINE MAINTENANCE

18%


38%



16%



Transport Aircraft MRO Forecast

• Field maintenance largest requirements category for decade at an estimated $42.3B.

• Airframe events to hit $8.3B for the decade, engine events $7.8 B.

• Flightdeck/Mission Avionics, mods/upgrades/maintenance, forecast requirements of $1.65B.

Light/Medium Transport MRO Forecast at $66B for 2015‐2024

Light/Medium Transport MRO Spend by Expense Category 2015-2024


13%



12%

ENGINE MAINTENANCE

12%

• Field maintenance largest requirements category for decade at an estimated $42.3B.

• Airframe events to hit $8.3B for the decade, engine events $7.8 B.

• Flightdeck/Mission Avionics, mods/upgrades/maintenance, forecast requirements of $1.65B.

Light/Medium Transport MRO Spend by Expense Category 2015-2024


13%



12%

ENGINE MAINTENANCE

12%



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All photos by Nigel Howarth

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