milankovic book-dalj-pandzic-2009

Milutin Milanković - 130 anniversary, Dalj, Croatia, 29-30 May 2009

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Astronomical Theory of Climatic Changes and Its Application in Geophysics

by Milutin Milanković

Krešo Pandžić, Tanja Likso Meteorological and Hydrological Service,

CROATIA


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viceContent

1 Croatian edition of Milanković’s book - “Astronomical theory of climate changes and its application in

geophysics”

2 Milutin Milanković - a traveller throughspace and ages

3 Astronomical theory of climate changes and its application in geophysics

4 Scientific echo of Milanković’s astronomical theory of ice ages

5 Conclusion


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1. Croatian Edition of Milankovic’s Book“Astronomical theory of climate changes and its application in geophysics”

• Publisher:

Prosvjeta, Zagreb, 2008

• For publisher: Mile Radović

• Editor: Branka Fulanović

• Redactor: Tanja Likso

• Reviewers:

Krešo Pandžić

Bojan Vršnak

• Volume: 192 pp

• Original: Naučna knjiga,

Beograd, 1958


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1. Croatian Edition of Milanković’s Book“Astronomical theory of climate changes and its application in geophysics”

Content of Milanković’s book

• Foreword to Croatian

edition:

a) Milanković’s Curriculum

Vitae

c) Description of Milanković’s

book

d) Scientific Echo of

Milanković’s theory

• Theory: Chapters 1-6

• Application: Chapters 7-12


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2. Milutin Milanković - a traveller throughspace and ages

• Born 1879 at Dalj, Croatia

• High school in Osijek 1986

• Civil engineer in Vienna 1902

• 2 year later i.e. 1904, 25 years

old, obtained Ph.D. degree

• In 1909 he took the position of

University Professor of applied

mathematics in Belgrade


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• Strategy of Milanković’s work:

“… In kingdom of science there are unpopulated and uncultivated areas where I could gain my scientific property…” - Vladimir Varićak said and Milanković accepted.

“… Where is a land which I could plough by my mathematical tools, seed it and wait products… “

“…I decided to peer into such transcendental parts of the sciences and started from meteorology…”


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• He started to study Hann’s papers and indicated problem ace ages as the most important.

• Frequent wars made difficulties in Milanković’s work

• He was active in Balkan’s war in 1912 as a reserve officer

• During the First World War i.e. 1914 Milanković become a prisoner of war


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•After an intervention of Prof. Cuber from Vienna he set free and stay in the Hungarian Academy of Science Library in Budapest next 4 years dealing with research work.

• Then he returned in Belgrade by a “white” steamship.

• He died in 1958 in Belgrade where he was temporarily buried.


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• According to his last wish, his “body“ was moved in Dalj in 1966 from where he started “his traveling through space and ages where he rests in peace”

Panorama of Dalj on the right bank of Danube river


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3. Astronomical theory of climate changes and its application in geophysics

INTRODUCTION

• Two natural laws:

a) Newton’s law of gravity applied on planets’ motion

b) “Geometric law” of Sun irradiation of the Earth

• By mathematical language it is possible to describe relationship with Earth’s motion parameter variations and its Sun’s irradiation variations


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INTRODUCTION

• In the book a “part of the science is exhibited which can find many applications in geology and geophysics”

• The first pat of the book is devoted to the theory and the second to the applications without strong mathematic – readable for the people without strong mathematical background.


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PART I - Theory

Scheme of the Earth orbital element changes


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PART I - Theory

Ilustration of annual course of Earth iradiation on a paralel

• Lasting of a year divided into two equal parts: warm and cold part

• summer temperature important for ice ages


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PART I - Theory

Material embedded in the ice sheet is deposited at the terminus to form moraine.

Geologists use them for ice age study.


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PART I - Theory

Geologists use moraines for ice age study.


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PART II - Application

Figure 15. Oscillations of amplitudes of summer irradiation for 65 degree parallel (After Milanković, 1948)

Figure 12. Distribution of glacial and interglacial episodes (After Penck, 1932)


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"Usporedimo li sheme Slika 15 i 12, vidimo da se one dobro, što više izvanredno dobro slažu ako se uzmeu obzir da su dobivene na dva sasvim različita načina, geološkim ispitivanjem i astronomskim proračunom.Pozivajući se na tu podudarnost Köppen je mogao s pravom reći i objaviti kako u mojim krivuljamaozračenja dolaze do potpunog izražaja četiri alpska ledena doba Penck Brücknerove sheme, a s tim senjegovim stajalištem ubrzo složio i sam Brückner."

“If schemes from Figures 12 and 15 are compared then an extraordinary agreement between them is obvious although they have been obtained on two quite different ways: by geological study and astronomical calculations, respectively. Then, Austrian meteorologist Köppen confimed how in my calculations a fully appearing of four Alpine ice ages of Penck-Brückner scheme, what very soon has been accepted by Brückner himself.”


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"Naš građanski kalendar nije ustvari ništa drugo nego prebrojavanjenebeskih pojava. U njegovim elementima, danu, mjesecu i godini, ogledajuse sve same svemirske pojave, rotacija Zemlje oko svoje osi, obilaženjeMjeseca oko Zemlje i obilaženje Zemlje oko Sunca. Isto je to i s kalendaromZemljine prošlosti, stvorenim krivuljama ozračenja. U njemu se odražavajusvemirske pojave više kategorije, oscilacije nagiba ekliptike i ekscentricitetaZemljine putanje i obilaženje perihela po toj putanji. Nejednakost perioda tihpojava čine taj kalendar Zemljine prošlosti kompliciranijim nego što je našgrađanski kalendar, no ne manje pouzdanim, jer se i on zasniva na istojstvarnoj činjenici, gibanju Zemlje."

“Our citizenship calendar is in principle an accounting of space events. In its elements as: day, month and year are all space events: rotation of the Earth, Moon moving around Earth and the Earth moving around the Sun.

The same situation is with the “calendar” of Earth past i.e. with obtained irradiation curves. Within the space events of higher categories are reflected:: obliquity of Eart´s axis, eccentricity of the orbit and precession.”


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Visinski položaj površine tog pokrova očuvao ga je od potpunog topljenja ikroz interglacijalna doba koja su ležala između Ginca i Mindela, Risa iVirma. Jedino dugo interglacijalno doba koje je ležalo između Mindela iRisa bilo je u stanju otopiti taj snježni pokrov. A snježni pokrov naGrenlandu, visinskim položajem svoje površine, i do dana danšnjega prkositoplini Sunčevih zraka."

“High position of ice cover preserves its from melting in shorter intermediate ice ages between Ginc and Mindel as well as Ris and Virm. During a longer intermediate period between Mindel and Ris ice melting has been at the whole. The snow cover on the Greenland by his high elevation is able to resist warmth of Sun’s rays.”


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Greenland in Summer


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4. Scientific echo of Milankovic’s astronomical theory of ice ages

• Broecker (1968), 10 years after Milanković’s death said:

“Milanković’s theory can not be considered as a curiosity. A serious attention should be devoted to this theory.”


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Hays et al. (1976) pomoću "zapisa" u oceanima, osobito izotopa kisika O18te spektralne analize povrđuju Milankovićevu astronomsku teoriju slijedaledenh doba:

"Zaključuje se da su promjene orbitalne geometrije Zemlje temeljniuzrok slijeda ledenih doba kvartara. Model buduće klime zasnovan naorbitalno-klimatskoj vezi, ali uz zanemarivanje antropogenih efekata,predviđa da je dugoročni trend za vrijeme idućih dvadesetak tisuća godinausmjeren ka ekstenzivnom ledenom dobu na sjevernoj hemisferi i hladnijojklimi."

“Hays et al. (1976), according to “records” in oceans confirmed Milankovic’s astronomical theory of ice ages:“It is concluded that changes of Earth orbital geometry are basic cause of quaternary ice age cycle. The model of future climate based on the orbital-climate relationship, ignoring the human influence, indicate a trend to the colder climate on the northern hemisphere in around next twenty thousands years.”


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Comparison of Solar forcing and stage of glaciations


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Milanković’s irradiation curve for the Northern pole for past 250 and future 50 thousands years


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Recent global warming climate scenario, very probably under strong human influence


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“It can be noticed that climate change as resuts of greenhouse gaseous are also “forced” by changes of radiation regime at the top of the atmosphere. These change are not principally different (although differently distributed) form changes which are caused by Milanković’s “forcing”. Therefore it can be concluded that influence of greenhouse gaseous will results in great extent a predictable climatic response.”

"Možemo također primjetiti da su promjene klime kao rezultatstakleničkih plinova također 'forsirane' promjenom radijacijskog režima navrhu atmosfere. Ove promjene nisu suštinski različite (iako različitoraspodijeljene), od promjena koje uzrokuje Milankovićevo 'forsiranje'. Stogase može tvrditi da će djelovanje stakleničkih plinova uvelike rezultiratiprediktabilnim klimatskim odgovorom."

• Houghton (2002):


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5 Conclusion

• There is not contradiction between Milanković’s astronomical theory of climate changes and recent global warming theory but only difference is in time scale and causes of climate changes.


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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT TO:

Ministry of Science, Education and Sport,of Republic of Croatia, for financial support

Mile Radović, Director of “Prosvjeta”,Prof. Branka Fulanović, EditorTanja Likso, RedactorBojan Vršnak, ReviewerIvan Čačić and Zvonko Žibrat , Meteorological and Hydrological Service of CroatiaMirko Orlić, Branko Grisogono, Zoran Pasarić, Geophusical Institute “Andrija Mohorovičić”


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THANK YOU

milankovic book-dalj-pandzic-2009

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