mikroekonomikuri modelit. l...4 temis aqtualuroba saqartvelostvis agraruli seqtori yoveltvis...
TRANSCRIPT
1
ivane javaxiSvilis saxelobis Tbilisis saxelmwifo universiteti
ekonomikisa da biznesis fakulteti
laSa labaZe
saqarTvelos soflis meurneobaSi investiciebis efeqtianobis Sefaseba
mikroekonomikuri modeliT
ekonomikis doqtoris akademiuri xarisxis
mosapoveblad warmodgenili sadisertacio naSromis
a v t o r e f e r a t i
Tbilisi
2015
2
naSromi Sesrulebulia ivane javaxiSvilis saxelobis Tbilisis saxelmwifo
universitetis ekonomikisa da biznesis fakultetis mikroekonomikis
kaTedraze
samecniero xelmZRvaneli: eTeri xaraiSvili
profesori,
ivane javaxiSvilis saxelobis
Tbilisis saxelmwifo universiteti
oficialuri Semfaseblebi:
1. ekaterine zviadaZe
ekonomikis akademiuri doqtori,
saqarTvelos soflis meurneobis saministro
politikisa da analitikis departamentis ufrosi
2. fati mamardaSvili
ekonomikis akademiuri doqtori,
Tsu ekonomikis saerTaSoriso skola
disertaciis dacva Sedgeba 2015 wlis 28 maiss, 14:00 saaTze ivane
javaxiSvilis saxelobis Tbilisis saxelmwifo universitetis ekonomikisa
da biznesis fakultetis sadisertacio sabWos sxdomaze
misamarTi: 0186, Tbilisi, universitetis q.2; Tsu X korpusi, auditoria N206.
disertaciis gacnoba SesaZlebelia ivane javaxiSvilis saxelobis Tbilisis
saxelmwifo universitetis samecniero biblioTekaSi
sadisertacio sabWos swavluli mdivani
ekonomikis akademiuri doqtori m.lobJaniZe
3
avtoreferatis struqtura
Temis aqtualuroba ....................................................................................................................................................... 4
kvlevis miznebi da amocanebi ..............................................................................................................................5
kvlevis obieqti da sagani ..................................................................................................................................... 6
naSromis ZiriTadi sakiTxebis sistematizacia .............................................................................. 8
kvlevis mecnieruli siaxleebi ...................................................................................................................... 24
sadisertacio naSromis moculoba ............................................................................................................ 24
sadisertacio naSromis struqtura ................................................................................ 25
4
Temis aqtualuroba
saqarTvelosTvis agraruli seqtori yovelTvis mniSvnelovan rols
asrulebda, radgan ekonomikurTan erTad igi socialuri xasiaTis
matarebelicaa Tavisi 3500-ze meti sofliTa da masSi mcxovrebi mosaxleobis
naxevriT. wlebis ganmavlobaSi arasakmarisma investiciebma mniSvnelovnad
daaknina aRniSnuli seqtori da sofeli gaRaribda. soflis meurneoba
darCa dabalganviTarebul sferod, romlisTvisac damaxasiaTebeli gaxda
Sromis dabali mwarmoebluroba. wlebis ganmavlobaSi mcirdeboda
damuSavebuli miwebis raodenoba.
alternatiuli dafinansebis naklebobam ganapiroba ucxour investiciebze
aqcentireba, romelsac unda daeZlia siRaribe soflad. Tumca, am
mimarTulebiTac ver iqna warmateba miRweuli, radgan arsebobda mTeli
rigi problemebi, kerZod, politikuri arastabiluroba, ganuviTarebeli
miwis bazari, ucxoel investorebsa da adgilobriv mosaxleobas Soris
warmoSobili konfliqtebi da a.S. soflis meurneobis mniSvnelobas zrdis
is faqtic, rom miuxedavad fermeruli meurneobis dabali
komercializaciisa, agro produqtebs mniSnelovani roli eniWeba sxva
seqtorebis ganviTarebasa da maT konkurentunarianobaSi. magaliTad,
soflis meurneobis nawarmi aris mniSvnelovani Sualeduri moxmarebis
produqtebi damamuSavebeli mrewvelobisTvis. 2013 wels damamuSavebelma
mrewvelobam Tavis warmoebaSi sul 437 mln laris Rirebulebis soflis
meurneobis produqti moixmara1.
amdenad, dRis wesrigSi dadga sakiTxi ara marto imis Sesaxeb, SeuZliaT
Tu ara pirdapir ucxour investiciebs, wvlili Seitanos soflis
ganviTarebaSi, aramed isic, Tu ra gavlenas iqoniebs soflis meurneobaSi
investiciebi sxvadasxva seqtorisa da mTlianad qveynis ekonomikis
1saqarTvelos statistikis erovnuli samsaxuri, resursebisa da gamoyenebis cxrilebi
http://geostat.ge/?action=page&p_id=739&lang=geo
5
ganviTarebaze. es kompleqsuri problema mravali mimarTulebiT,
siRrmiseul analizs saWiroebs. saqarTveloSi dRemde ar Catarebula
raodenobrivi gaTvlebi imis Sesaxeb, Tu ra gavlena eqneba soflis
meurneobis seqtorSi ganxorcielebul investiciebs qveynis eqsportsa da
importze. magaliTad, saqarTvelo rZisa da xorcis wminda importioria.
mxolod frinvelisa da kvercxis nawarmi, isic nawilobriv, akmayofilebs
adgilobriv moTxovnas.
aRniSnuli kvlevis sakiTxebi mniSvnelovania im mraval gamowvevas Soris,
romlis winaSec dgas dRes saqarTvelos soflis meurneoba. swored amitom,
aucilebelia gavaanalizoT soflis meurneobis seqtorSi sainvesticio
garemo, dagegmili Tu mimdinare investiciebis mosalodneli Sedegebi,
rogorc mosaxleobis keTildReobis gaumjobesebis kuTxiT, aseve, SevafasoT
misi gavlena calkeul seqtorebsa da mTlianad ekonomikaze. amgvari kvleviT
SesaZlebeli gaxdeba ukeT warmoCndes inkluziuri da mdgradi
ganviTarebisTvis soflis meurneobis seqtoris mniSvneloba.
kvlevis miznebi da amocanebi
kvlevis ZiriTadi mizania zogadi wonasworobis modelis gamoyenebiT,
soflis meurneobaSi ganxorcielebuli investiciebis gavlenis Sefaseba
umuSevrobaze, mTlian Sida produqtze, fasebze, vaWrobaze, realur
xelfasze da problemebis identifikaciiT am seqtoris ganviTarebis
rekomendaciebis SemuSaveba.
aRniSnuli miznis misaRwevad Semdegi amocanebis gadawyveta davisaxeT:
• saqarTvelos soflis meurneobis seqtoris sainvesticio garemos
Seswavla;
• soflis meurneobis seqtoris ganviTarebis (mosaxleoba,
siRaribis maCvenebeli, miwis fondi, soflis meurneobis mTliani
6
warmoeba, pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebi seqtorebis mixedviT da
sxv.) tendenciebis analizi;
• socialuri aRricxvis matricis ageba;
• ekonomikis modelis Teoriuli safuZvlebis SemuSaveba
Sesabamisi sargeblianobisa da warmoebis funqciebis SerCeviT;
• statikuri, zogadi wonasworobis modelis Seqmna da
investiciebis simulaciuri asaxva kompiuteruli programa GAMs-is
gamoyenebiT;
• integrirebuli Sinameurneobebis kvlevis monacemTa analizi
regionul WrilSi kompiuteruli programa STATA- s gamoyenebiT;
• sxva qveynebis gamocdilebis Seswavla soflis meurneobaSi
investiciebis mozidvis kuTxiT, aseve, ucxoelebze miwis gasxvisebis
sakiTxebis analizi da sxv.
kvlevis obieqti da sagani
kvlevis obieqtia saqarTvelos soflis meurneobis seqtori rogorc qveynis
masStabiT, aseve regionul WrilSi.
kvlevis sagans warmoadgens saqarTvelos soflis meurneobis seqtorSi
ganxorcielebuli investiciebis efeqtianobis analizi mikroekonomikuri
modelirebis gamoyenebiT, Sefaseba imisa, Tu ra gavlenas moaxdens soflis
meurneobis seqtorSi ganxorcielebuli investiciebi soflad dasaqmebuli
mosaxleobis keTildReobaze; rogor Semcirdeba uTanasworoba qalaqsa da
sofels Soris. aseve, rogori gavlena eqneba soflis meurneobaSi
investiciebs mTliani Sida produqtze, eqsportze, importze da umuSevrobze
regionul WrilSi. kvlevis sagans, aseve, warmoadgens saqarTvelos soflis
meurneobis ganviTarebis dinamikisa da arsebuli mdgomareobis analizi,
gaxorcielebuli da mimdinare proeqtebis da programebis Sefaseba.
7
kvlevis Teoriuli da meTodologiuri safuZvlebi
naSromis Teoriul safuZvels warmoadgens:
• qarTvel da ucxoel mecnierTa saxelmZRvaneloebi,
monografiebi, kvlevebi, Sefasebebi, statiebi; maT Soris: saqarTvelos
Tanainvestirebis fondis mier gamoqveynebuli sainvesticio gegmebis
Sesaxeb informacia, evropis kavSiris samezoblo programis
farglebSi ganxorcielebuli kvleva soflis meurneobisa da soflis
ganviTarebis Sesaxeb, liberaluri akademiis mier gamoqveynebuli
kvleva saqarTvelos soflis meurneobis sferos transformaciis
Sesaxeb da a.S.
• kolorados universitetis ekonomikis fakultetis mier
SemuSavebuli zogadi wonasworobis maTematikuri programirebis
sistemis saxelmZRvanelo, romelic efuZneba rTuli (Sedgenili)
Canacvlebis, mudmivi elastikurobis mqone sawarmoo funqciebs.
• saqarTvelos statistikis erovnuli samsaxuris mier
gamoqveynebuli Sinameurneobebis integrirebuli gamokvlevis
monacemTa bazebi, gamoyenebisa da resursebis cxrilebi da wliuri
publikaciebi;
• saqarTvelos soflis meurneobis saministrosa da finansTa
saministros mier gamoqveynebuli masalebi da oficialuri
statistikuri monacemebi.
naSromis meTodologiuri safuZvlebi gaxlavT statistikuri analizis
sxvadasxva xerxi, socialuri matricis agebisa da analizis meTodebi,
zogadi wonasworuli modelis agebisa da simulaciuri scenarebis analizis
safuZvlebi.
8
naSromis ZiriTadi sakiTxebis sistematizacia
Tavi 1. saqarTvelos soflis meurneobis ganviTarebis mimoxilva
saqarTvelos soflis meurneoba dabali mwarmoeblurobis Sedegad Zalian
nela viTardeboda. 2004-2013 wlebSi realuri mSp saSualod 5.9%-iT
izrdeboda, Tumca soflis meurneobaSi mSp 0.6%-iT Semcirda. praqtikulad,
am maCveneblis zedized gaumjobesebis precedenti ar yofila. miuxedavad am
seqtorSi samuSao Zalis siWarbisa, soflis meurneobis wili mTlian Sida
produqtSi, erT-erTi yvelaze dabali iyo ekonomikis sxva seqtorebTan
SedarebiT da 8-13% intervalSi meryeobda. saSualo wliuri mosavalic
cvalebadi iyo da 2010 wlis CaTvliT Semcirebis tendencias hqonda adgili.
gaumjobeseba SeiniSneboda momdevno wlebSi, Tumca 2013 wels, 1990 welTan
SedarebiT damuSvebuli farTobebis moculoba 2-jer naklebi iyo.
mdgomareobas isic amwvavebs, rom mosaxleobis daaxloebiT 46% soflad
cxovrobs da agrarul seqtorSi dasaqmebuli saojaxo meurneobebi
Seadgens mTeli samuSao Zalis 43%-s. aqedan gamomdinare, soflis meurneoba
saqarTvelos ekonomikis sakvanZo sferoa ara marto ekonomikuri, aramed
socialuri kuTxiTac. miuxedavad imisa, rom soflis meurneobis wili mSp-
Si dabalia, soflad mcxovreb ojaxTa Semosavlebis 45% swored soflis
meurneobaze modis.
saqarTvelo CamorCeba sxva qveynebs mwarmoeblurobaSi da qarTuli soflis
meurneobis produqti ar aris msoflio bazarze konkurentunariani. ver
ganviTarda arsebuli, TviTmoxmarebaze orientirebuli Sinameurneobebi da
maT ver SeiZines komerciuli xasiaTi, rac produqtis realizebas
gulisxmobs. saqarTvelos statistikis erovnuli samsaxuris mier, 2013 wels
Catarebuli Sinameurneobebis integrirebuli gamokvlevis monacemTa
analiziT davadgineT, rom saqarTvelos regionebis mixedviT, soflis
meurneobis produqtebis gayidvidan miRebuli Semosavali mTliani
Semosavlis 4-19% Soris meryeobs. soflis meurneobaSi yvelaze maRali
xarisxis komercializacia dafiqsirda samcxe-javaxeTis regionSi _
9
sasoflo sameurneo produqtis gayidvidan miRebuli Semosavlis wili, 19%-
s Seadgens. meore adgilzea kaxeTi 11%-iani wiliT. es niSnavs, rom samcxe-
javaxeTSi fermerebi soflis meurneobis produqtebis gayidvidan
daaxloebiT 2-jer met Semosavals iReben, vidre kaxeTis fermerebi
axerxeben. rac Seexeba sxva regionebs, isini samcxe-javaxeTs kidev ufro
metad CamorCebian. magaliTad, aWaraSi sasoflo-sameurneo produqtis
gayidvidan miRebuli Semosavli mTliani Semosavlis mxolod 4%-ia. samcxe-
javaxeTis warmatebas Tavisi mizezebi aqvs, rac warmodgenil sadisertacio
naSromSi detalurad aris gaanalizebuli. ZiriTadi faqtori, soflebis
urbanul dasaxlebebTan damakavSirebeli gzebis gaumarTavobaa, rac
soflad macxovreblebs, bazrebze produqtis gasaRebis problemas uqmnis.
saqarTveloSi soflis meurneobis dabali mwarmoeblurobis problemis
mogvarebis erT-erTi gza soflis meurneobaSi investiciebis
ganxorcielebaa. soflis meurneobaSi kapitalis formireba, axali
teqnologiebis danergva, nou-haus Semotana da ganaTlebis amaRleba
cnobili eqspertuli mosazrebebia, romlebic sadavo aravisTvisaa. amasTan
erTad, rigi eqspertebi Tanxmdebian, rom mwarmoeblurobis amaRlebisTvis
aucilebelia danawevrebuli fermeruli meurneobebis gamsxvileba. soflad
macxovrebelTa did nawils ar uRirs Tavisi mcire zomis miwis damuSaveba,
ararentabeluria manqana-danadgarebis SeZenac, rac mwarmoeblurobas
aamaRlebda. rig SemTxvevebSi, soflad macxovrebelTa miwa daumuSavebeli
rCeba, radgan adgili aqvs samsaxuris saSovnelad soflidan urbanul
dasaxlebebSi gadasvlas.
mdgomareobis ukeT Sesafaseblad Cven detalurad gavaanalizoT soflis
meurneobaSi yvelaze mniSvnelovani resursis - miwis bazris ganviTareba,
rasac warmodgenili sadisertacio naSromis erTi qveTavi eTmoba. miwis
reforma erT-erTi mniSvnelovani socialur-ekonomikuri movlenaa, romelic
mimdinare procesSia da jer ar dasrulebula.
10
sasoflo-sameurneo daniSnulebis miwis sakuTrebis Sesaxeb kanonSi mravali
cvlileba Sevida, romelic detalurad gavaanalizeT da naTlad
gamovkveTeT problemis arsi. miuxedavad imisa, rom sxva qveynebSic arsebobs
garkveuli SezRudvebi, regulaciebi naklebad mkacria da tovebs garkveuli
gamonaklisebis SesaZloblobas. saqarTvelos SemTxvevaSi ki damajerebeli
dasabuTebis gareSe Zalze xisti da yovlismomcveli akrZalva
gaumarTlebeli iyo. saqarTvelos mTavrobis mier sasoflo-sameurneo
daniSnulebis miwis erTiani saxelmwifo politikis SemuSaveba da miwis
kadastris organizeba calsaxad dadebiTi iniciativaa, rac miwaTmowyobis
erTiani sistemis organizebas da saboloo jamSi miwis bazris ganviTarebas
Seuwyobs xels, Tumca, am procesSi ar unda dazaraldes qveynis ekonomikuri
interesebi. investorebis mozidva ki mzardi ekonomikis pirobebSi mTavrobis
umniSvnelovanesi interesi unda iyos.
naSromSi aseve gavaanalizeT sasoflo-sameurneo dargis ganviTarebis
aucilebeli piroba - kreditebis xelmisawvdomoba. efeqtiani sasoflo-
sameurneo dafinansebis sistemis Seqmna bevr sirTulesTanaa dakavSirebuli,
gansakuTrebiT gardamavali ekonomikis qveynebSi, sadac finansuri bazari
jer kidev Camoyalibebis procesSia, xolo soflis meurneoba Sesabamisi
infrastruqturis ganuviTareblobis, primitiuli teqnologiebis
gamoyenebisa da saWiro informaciis SezRuduli misawvdomobis gamo
dabalrentabeluri, maRalriskiani da arastabiluri seqtoria. es is
mizezebia, romelTa gamoc bankebi sasoflo-sameurneo seqtors maRali
riskis sferod miiCneven da romlebic, Sesabamisad, soflis meurneobis
finansuri bazris Camoyalibebas uSlis xels.
soflis meurnebaSi sainvesticio kapitalis SemosvlisTvis ukiduresad
mniSvnelovania sasoflo-sameurneo dakreditebisa da dazRvevis sistemis
ganviTareba. swored am mimarTulebiT gadadgmuli nabiji iqneboda
grZelvadiani efeqtis mqone struqturuli xasiaTis reforma. erovnuli
bankis statistikuri monacemebis mixedviT 2014 wels soflis meurneobaze
11
komerciuli bankebis mier gacemuli sesxebis (rogorc larSi, aseve ucxour
valutaSi) mxolod daaxloebiT 3% modis.
saqarTveloSi realurad arsebobs moTxovna agrodazRvevaze. agrodazRvevis
sistemis Camoyalibebisa da ganviTarebis mimarTulebiT saxelmwifo CaerTo.
2014 wlis 1 seqtembridan, saqarTveloSi saxelmwifo agrodazRvevis
sapilote programa amoqmedda, romelic 2015 wlis 1 setembramde imuSavebs.
Tumca, am etapze, aucilebelia fermerTa gadamzadeba, agrodazRvevis
sakiTxebze cnobadobis amaRleba da informireba, raTa maqsimaluri Sedegi
iqnes miRweuli. saqarTveloSi soflis meurneobis dargis ganviTarebas
mniSvnelovnad Seuwyobs xels agrodazRvevis sistemis amoqmedeba.
agrodazRveva soflad mcxovreb mosaxleobas daexmareba stiqiuri
movlenebiT miyenebuli zaralis sagrZnoblad SeamcirebaSi da stabiluri
gaxdeba maT Semosavlebi. agrodazRvevis amoqmedeba soflis meurneobis
seqtoris mimarT safinanso institutebis interess gazrdis. fermerebisTvis
xelmisawvdomi gaxdeba finansuri resursi, rac dargis stabilur
ganviTarebas Seuwyobs xels.
naSromSi detalurad ganvixileT soflis meurneobaSi mimdinare proeqtebi
da programebi, rogorc saxelmwifos, aseve donori organizaciebis mier
dafinansebuli. 2012 wlidan mniSvnelovnad gaizarda soflis meurneobis
saministros biujeti da mravali programa ganxorcielda. 2012 wlamde
soflis macxovreblebze subsidiebis gacema sxva araferi iyo, Tu ara wminda
politikuri gadawyvetileba, socialuri daxmarebis TvalsazrisiT da ara
soflis ganviTarebisken gadadgmuli nabiji.
arsebuli monacemebis analizze dayrdnobiT naSromSi gavaanalizeT soflis
meurneobis potenciali. ZiriTadi daskvna is aris, rom qveyanas bevri
alternativa ar gaaCnia. Znelad, magram gaTviTcnobierda, rom rTulia
axladCamoyalibebuli samrewvelo da momsaxurebebis mimwodebeli firmebis
SenarCuneba Ria globalur ekonomikaSi, gansakuTrebiT ki kvalificiuri da
disciplinirebuli samuSao Zalis naklebobis pirobebSi. Tumca, aseve
12
arsebobs bevri sxva mizezi imisa, Tu ratom SeiZleba gaxdes soflis
meurneoba qarTuli ekonomikis erT-erTi mamoZravebeli Zala.
pirveli, SeiZleba bevrs miaCndes, rom saqarTvelos soflis meurneoba ufro
socialuri usafrTxoebis qselia asiaTasobiT arasaTanadod dasaqmebuli
individisaTvis, magram es aris seqtori, sadac jer kidev SeiZleba didi
Sedegis miRweva mcire ZalisxmeviT. anu, mwarmoeblurobis zrda
mokrZalebuli investiciebis, organizaciuli da procesualuri sakiTxebis
daxvewiTac miiRweva.
meore, unda gaviTvaliswinoT, rom aRmosavleT aziis mravalma qveyanam
maRal ekonomikur zrdas sawyis etapze swored soflis meurneobis sferos
ganviTarebiT miaRwia. sasoflo-sameurneo mwarmoeblurobis zrdam Sedegad
moitana investiciebi urbanul dasaxlebebSi msubuqi mrewvelobis
ganviTarebaSi. eqsportze orientirebuli industrializacia SeiZleba
gamowveva iyos saqarTvelosnairi qveynisaTvis, soflis meurneobaSi
mwarmoeblurobis zrdiT gamowveuli ekonomikuri keTildReoba ki sxva
seqtorebis bunebriv ganviTarebas uyris safuZvels.
mesame, globaluri tendenciebis gaTvaliswinebiT, moTxovna mzardia
soflis meurneobis diferencirebul (rogorc pirvelad, aseve
gadamuSavebul) produqtebze. saqarTvelos am kuTxiT rigi upiratesobebi
aqvs, rogoricaa niadagi da klimaturi pirobebi, unikaluri kultura da
tradiciebi. am upiratesobebis gamoyenebiT, qveyanas aqvs potenciali Seqmnas
gansakuTrebuli da maRali Rirebulebis mqone, geografiulad
dominirebuli produqtebi, CaerTos gadamamuSavebeli mrewvelobis
inovaciur procesebSi da misdios organul soflis meurneobas.
meoTxe, Warbi produqciis komercializacia soflis macxovreblebs
siRaribis daZlevaSic daexmareba da Tanamedrove komerciul sazogadoebaSi
funqcionirebis unarebsac SesZens.
13
Tavi 2. investiciebis Sedegebis Semafasebeli kvlevebis mimoxilva
am TavSi ganvixileT arsebuli kvlevebi, romlebSic asaxulia soflis
meurneobis seqtorSi investiciebis efeqtianobis Sefaseba, aseve,
gaanalizebulia maTi roli Semosavlebis uTanasworobis problemis
gadaWraSi. masalebis mimoxilva sainteresoa ori TvalsazrisiT: erTi mxriv,
gavecaniT sxvadasxva dros sxva qveynebSi Catarebuli kvlevis Sedegebs da
gamoikveTa is meTodologiebi, romlebze dayrdnobiTac ama Tu im maCvenebls
iTvlian. aseve, ganvixileT saqarTvelos soflis meurneobaSi
ganxorcielebuli pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis ramdenime magaliTi.
naSromSi detalurad gavaanalizeT araerTi naSromi, romlebSic soflis
meurneobis ganviTarebisTvis investiciebis mniSvnelobazea mocemuli
Sefasebebi. Tumca, literaturaSi aRiniSneba urTierTsawinaaRmdego
daskvnebi investiceibis efeqtianobasTan dakavSirebiT. realurad, 2003 wlis
Semdgom periodSi, saqarTvelom didi sagareo finansuri daxmareba miiRo.
am daxmarebis xarjze garkveulwilad daiwyo ekonomikis winsvla, magram
arsebiTad ver moxda siRaribis daZleva da dasaqmebis problemis gadaWra.
amgvari Sedegebis analizisTvis Catarebulma sxvadasxva kvlevam cxadyo,
rom urbanuli ganviTarebis nacvlad soflis meurneobis ganviTareba unda
yofiliyo prioriteti. magaliTad, eTiopiis SemTxvevaSi mkvlevarebma
aCvenes, rom urbanul ganviTarebaSi Cadebulma investiciebma ver
uzrunvelyo Raribi mosaxleobis (rogorc, soflad, ise qalaqad)
keTildReobis maCveneblis sasikeTod Secvla, Tumca, mTlianobaSi
garkveuli ekonomikuri winsvla dafiqsirda. aseTi Sedegebi metwilad
gamowveuli iyo resursebis gadinebiT soflidan urbanuli dasaxlebebSi,
ramac sameurneo warmoebis mkveTri Semcireba gamoiwvia da gazarda fasebi
agrosasursaTo produqtze. msgavsi Sedegebi gansakuTrebiT mwvavea im
qveynebisTvis, sadac mosaxleobis umetesobis Semosavali saarsebo minimumis
qvemoTaa. sapirispiro SemTxvevaSi, roca investiciebi xorcieldeba soflis
14
meurneobis ganviTarebaSi, mTlianad ekonomikis zrdis maCvenebeli arcTu
ise zrdadia, Tumca mosaxleobis keTildReoba soflad da qalaqebSic
SesamCnevad umjobesdeba. pakistanis magaliTze, sadac ekonomikis safuZveli
soflis meurneobaa, analogiuri Sedegebi miiRes sxva mkvlevarebmac.
kvlevebis avtorebi mividnen im daskvnamde, rom warmoebis daCqarebuli
winsvla uzrunvelyofs saSualo ojaxis Semosavlis gazrdas,
gansakuTrebiT ki, Rarib mosaxleobaSi. soflis meurneobis ganviTareba
xels Seuwyobs rogorc sameurneo, ise, arasameurneo dargSi dasaqmebulTa
Semosavlebisa da warmoebis maCveneblis gazrdas. meti produqti Seamcirebs
fasebs da aRmofxvris sakvebis deficits. saqarTvelos msgavsad, pakistanis
mSp-Si soflis meurneobis wili nel-nela mcirdeboda, roca Raribi
mosaxleobis umetesi nawili sofladaa dasaxlebuli. amgvarad,
agrowarmoebis xelSewyoba am tipis qveynebSi Zalzed mniSvnelovania.
mkvlevarebma indoneziisaTvis Seqmnes CGE modeli, romelic asaxavda
ganviTarebad qveynebSi ekonomikuri reformebis gavlenas makroekonomikur
maCveneblebsa da Semosavlebis gadanawilebaze qalaqad da soflad
mcxovreb ojaxebs Soris. modelis daxmarebiT, statikur da dinamikur
simulaciebze dayrdnobiT gamoaSkaravda, rom politikam, romelmac iqonia
pozitiuri gavlena indoneziis makroekonomikur mdgomareobaze,
imavdroulad umniSvnelod gaauaresa Semosavlebis gadanawileba.
ugandisTvis Seqmnili CGE modelis safuZvelzec gaanalizda kavSiri
ekonomikur zrdasa da siRaribis daZlevas Soris makro da mikro-ekonomikur
doneebze. naSromi, aseve moicavs, soflis meurneobis seqtorSi, saxelmwifos
mier dasaxuli miznebis misaRwevad saWiro resursebis Sefasebas. maT
analizze dayrdnobiT, agrowarmoebis mdgradi ganviTarebisTvis saWiroa
ufro meti da efeqtiani investiciebis ganxorcieleba soflis meurneobaSi
da, aseve, saxelmwifo danaxarjebis optimizacia. dasaxuli miznebis
misaRwevad aucilebelia saxelmwifo biujetis mexuTedis soflis
15
meurneobis seqtorSi Cadeba, rac SesamCnevad Seamcirebs saarsebo minimumis
zRvarze dabla myofi mosaxleobis ricxvs da gaaumjobesebs cxovrebis
dones urbanul da ruralur dasaxlebebSi.
naSromSi gaanalizebulia e.w. „rikardos xafangi“. Tu davuSvebT, rom
soflis meurneobis ganviTareba stagnaciuri darCeba, maSin gaizrdeba
dasaqmebis maCvenebeli arasasoflo-sameurneo sferoSi, produqtebze fasebi
ki moimatebs, rasac mohyveba arasasoflo-sameurneo seqtorSi dasaqmebulTa
realuri xelfasebis Semcireba da mrewvelobis dargebis ganviTarebis
Seferxeba. Sedegad vaskvniT, rom soflis meurneobisa da sxva danarCeni
dargebis ganviTareba ar SeiZleba erTmaneTisgan damoukideblad
warimarTos.
ucxouri investiciebis Semosvlas gadamwyveti mniSvneloba aqvs gardamavali
ekonomikis qveynebisTvis, miTumetes Sida investiciebis ar arsebobis
SemTxvevaSi. qveynebi pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis mosazidad sxvadasxva
xerxs mimarTaven. gansxvavebuli politikis gatarebiT cdiloben
konkurencia gauwion erTmaneTs pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis misaRebad.
naSromSi warmodgenili literaturis analiziT vaskvniT, rom ama Tu im
qveynis kerZo maxasiaTeblebis gaTvaliswinebiT pirdapiri ucxouri
investiciebi Seamcirebs Semosavlebis uTansaworobas Rarib, ganviTarebad
qveynebSi, magram mdidar, ganviTarebul qveynebSi piriqiT, gazrdis mis
maCvenebels.
saqarTveloSi ganxorcielebuli ucxouri investiciebis magaliTze, meore
TavSi detalurad aris aRwerili misgan miRebuli sargebeli. soflis
meurneobaSi ganxorcielebuli ucxouri investiciebis dadebiTi Sedegebi
gavaanalizeT ramdenime WrilSi. pirveli rigSi ganvixileT saerTaSoriso
kavSirebi. gamokiTxuli biznesebidan, yvelam aRniSna, rom ucxouri
investiciebis monawileoba an Tanamonawileoba uadvilebT Tanamedrove
teqnologiebis danergvas, rac saSualebas aZlevT daakmayofilon
16
saerTaSoriso standartebi. produqtis maRali xarisxi, Tavis mxriv,
dadebiT reputacias uqmnis ara marto maT, aramed zogadad, saqarTveloSi
warmoebul produqts. aseve, biznesmenebs uadvildebaT partniorebis moZebna
da produqtis eqsporti. rig SemTxvevebSi, investoris dedobili
organizacia Tavad yidulobs saqarTveloSi warmoebul produqts. soflis
meurneobaSi mimarTuli ucxouri investiciebi aumjobesebs adgilobriv
biznesgaremos da zrdis konkurencias, rac, Tavis mxriv, amcirebs fass da
aumjobesebs xarisxs. Tanamedrove teqnologiebze awyobili agrobiznesebi
ubiZgeben konkurentebs axali, ufro efeqtiani marTvisa da teqnologiuri
bazis mowyobisaken. aseve, vertikalur jaWvSi integrirebul mimwodeblebsa
da momxmareblebs aiZulebs moergon maRali standardebis moTxovnebs.
ucxouri investiciebiT Seqmnili biznesebi adamianuri kapitalis
inkubatorebis rols TamaSoben. ganxiluli biznesebidan yoveli maTgani
xarjavs mniSvnelovan finansur resursebs, TanamSromelTa kvalifikaciis
amaRlebisTvis, treningebisa da gadamzadebis kursebis gavlisTvis. zogadad,
dasaqmeba da samuSao Zalis ganviTareba pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis
erT-erTi yvelaze mniSvnelovani dadebiTi Sedegia. amasTan erTad, pirdapiri
ucxouri investiciebi zrdis saxelwifo Semosavals miwis, qonebis,
irigaciis, aqcizis, saSemosavlo, mogebisa da damatebiTi Rirebulebis
gadasaxadebiT. Tumca sagulisxmoa, rom sasoflo-sameurneo produqtis
warmoebaSi igulisxmeba pirveladi produqti da nebismieri saxis damatebiTi
damuSaveba ibegreba damatebuli Rirebulebis gadasaxadiT.
Tavi 3. zogadi wonasworobis modeli
zogadi wonasworobis modelebi (CGE) kargad dafuZnebulia standartul
ekonomikur TeoriaSi. misi gamoyenebiT ikvleven Tanamedrove politikis
sakiTxebs sabazro ekonomikis pirobebSi da farTod gamoiyeneba iseTi tipis
analizisas, rogoricaa investiciebis, sagadasaxado reformis da sxvadasxva
proeqtebis efeqtianobis Sefaseba. CGE modelis potenciali Zalzed didia
17
da dRevandel msoflioSi farTod adaptirebuli meTodia misi gamoyeneba,
gansakuTrebiT, ganviTarebadi qveynebis magaliTze.
naSromSi datalurad gavaanalizeT zogadi wonasworobis modelis Teoriu-
meTodologiuri safuZvlebi (safaso meqanizmi), misi dadebiTi da uaryofiTi
mxareebi da kompleqsuri struqtura. aseve, ganvixileT modelis Seqmnisa da
ganviTarebis istoriuli etapebi. zogadi wonasworobis modelis
Tavdapirvel Semqmnelad iTvleba leon valrasi (Léon Walras), neoklasikuri
Teoriis erT-erTi fuZemdebeli da amavdroulad maTematikuri ekonomikisa
da modelirebis mamamTavari. modelis ganviTarebaSi, kerZod ki
wonasworobis arsebobisa da misi mdgradobis damtkicebaSi, wvlili
Seitanes ekonomistebma eroum da debrium (Kenneth Arrow, Gérard Debreu). zogadi
wonasworobis modelebs iyeneben iseTi organizaciebi, rogoricaa msoflio
savaWro organizacia (WTO), saerTaSoriso sakvebis politikis kvleviTi
instituti (IFPRI), msoflio banki (WB) da sxv.
investiciebis efeqtianobis analizisTvis naSromSi agebulia zogadi
wonasworobis modeli „Arrow–Debreu“-s wonaworobis magaliTis mixedviT.
Sesabamisad modelirebisTvis gamoyenebulia sami aramkacri utolobis
piroba: nulovani mogebis, sabazro wonasworobis da saSemosavlo balansis.
modeli statikuria da drois faqtors ar iTvaliswinebs, anu miRebuli
Sedegebis interpretacia xdeba saSualovadian periodze da ar
iTvaliswinebs efeqtebis droSi ganawilebas. modelSi nagulisxmebia mcire,
Ria ekonomika, romlis pirobebSic qveynas ar aqvs gavlena msoflio fasebze.
eqsportisa da importis fasebi egzogenuria.
naSromSi warmodgenil modelSi ganxilulia 15 ekonomikuri seqtori da
Sesabamisad produqtTa 15 kategoria. modelSi gaTvaliswinebuli sawarmoo
faqtorebia samuSao Zala, kapitali da Sualeduri produqtis nakrebi.
seqtorebi, romlebic erTze meti saxeobis produqts awarmoeben, aRwerilia
18
transformaciis mudmivi elastikurobis mqone funqciebiT. Canacvlebis
elastikuroba TviTdasaqmebul da daqiravebul muSaxels Soris erTis
tolia soflis meurneobis seqtorisTvis, xolo yvela sxva seqtorisTvis
0.5-is. es daSveba logikuria, radgan TviTdasaqmebulTa umravlesoba soflis
meurneobis seqtorSia da isini SeiZleba daqiravebulni iqnan agrobiznesebis
mier. Tumca, soflad TviTdasaqmebul adamians gauWirdeba sxva seqtorSi
ipovos samsaxuri. kapitali da muSaxeli gaerTianebulia qob-daglasis
funqciiT, xolo saboloo produqtis warmoebisTvis Sualeduri moxmarebis
saqonelTan gaerTianebulia leontiefis funqciiT. naSromSi gamoyenebulia
transformaciis mudmivi elastikurobis funqcia, romelic warmoebul
produqts yofs adgilobriv da saeqsporto bazrebisTvis.
modelSi Sinameurneobebi sargeblianobas iReben dasvenebaSi daxarjuli
droidan, danazogebidan da produqtisa da momsaxurebis moxmarebidan
(impotirebuli da adgilobrivi produqti misTvis ganurCevelia).
produqtisa da momsaxurebis moxmareba aRwerilia qob-daglasis funqciiT,
romelic fiqsirebuli proporciiT aris gaerTianebuli danazogebTan da
bolos dasveneba da moxmareba-danazogebi gaerTianebulia 0.5 Canacvlebis
elastikurobis mqone funqciiT.
saxelmwifos Semosavlebi Sedgeba gadasaxadebis, sazRvargareTidan
miRebuli grantebisa da sesxebisgan. Tavis mxriv, igi gascems transferebs
mosaxleobaze. darCenil saxsrebs iyenebs produqtis SesaZenad da
investiciebisTvis.
modelSi saSemosavlo gadasaxadebi endogenuria da icvleba imis mixedviT,
rom saxelmwifos servisebis done sawyis maCvenebelze SenarCundes
sxvadasxva savaraudo scenarebis ganxilvisas. daSvebis Tanaxmad, amoRebuli
gadasaxadebi Seicvleba Sinameurneobebis moxmarebis cvlilebis
proporciulad. aseTi daSvebiT fokusirebas movaxdenT investiciebis
19
rolze, radgan konkretul situaciaSi naklebad aqtualuria sxva wyaroebis
xarjze gaumjobesebuli keTildReobis maCvenebeli.
modelis mixedviT qveynidan gaedineba danazogebi, aseve, sazRvargareT gadis
ucxoelebis mier adgilobrivi kapitalis flobiT miRebuli Semosavali,
wminda fuladi gzavnilebi da wminda eqsporti.
Tavi 4. socialuri aRricxvis matrica
2011 wlis monacemebze dayrdnobiT avageT socialuri aRricxvis matrica
(SAM), rac saqarTvelosTvis pirvelia da zogadi wonasworobis modelis
gamoyenebiT kvlevebis ganviTarebas uyris safuZvels. sxvadasxva saxis
monacems Sorisaa finansTa saministrosa da saqstatis mier mowodebuli
informacia erovnuli angariSebze, Sinameurneobebis integrirebuli
gamokvlevisa da saxelmwifos 2011 wlis biujetis monacemebi. axlad
Seqmnili socialuri aRricxvis matrica moicavs informacias 15 seqtoris
warmoebasa da maTze moTxovnis Sesaxeb, agreTve, 15 samrewvelo produqtsa
da 20 tipis saojaxo meurneobas, regionebisa da rural-urbanul WrilSi.
aseve, erTmaneTisgan gamovyaviT TviTdasaqmebuli da daqiravebuli muSaxeli.
naSromSi detalurad ganvixileT matricis agebis meTodologia da misi
gamoyenebis mniSvneloba.
Tavi 5. saqarTvelos ekonomikis sxvadasxva seqtorSi investiciebis
modelirebis Sedegebi
pirvel rigSi soflis meurneobaSi investiciebis Sedegebi SevadareT sxva
seqtorebis Sedegebs. Cven simulaciurad avsaxeT eqvsi sxvadasxva scenari.
pirvel xuT scenarSi gamoTvlilia Sedegebi sainvesticio fondis sruli
kapitalis xuT sxvadasxva seqtorSi, maT Soris soflis meurneobis
seqtorSi investiciis SemTxvevaSi. amiT ufro naTlad davinaxeT sxva
seqtorebTan SedarebiT ramdenad ukeTes Sedegs gvaZlevs soflis
20
meurneobaSi investireba. meeqvse scenari warmoadgens kombinirebuli
investiciis strategias. procentuli gadanawileba aviReT saqarTvelos
Tanainvestirebis fondis mier daanonsebuli, TiToeul am seqtorSi
savaraudo investiciebis moculobis Sesabamisad. pirveli xuTi simulacia
mdgomareobs 1 miliardi laris odenobis investiciis ganxorcielebaSi
Semdeg seqtorebSi: soflis meurneoba, damamuSavebeli mrewveloba,
energetika (eleqtroenergiis, airisa da wylis warmeba miwodeba),
sastumroebi da restornebi, transporti da kavSirgabmuloba. bolo
simulaciaSi Tanxa nawildeba am xuT seqtorze. Sedegad gavaanalizeT
umuSevrobis donis cvlileba, vaWrobis maCveneblis Secvla, nominaluri
mSp–is da realuri xelfasebis cvlileba. naSromSi warmodgenilia
miRebuli Sedegebis detaluri analizi. zogadad SeiZleba aRiniSnos, rom
Tu davakvirdebiT investiciis Sedegebs sxvadasxva indikatorze (mSp,
samuSao adgilebis Seqmna, saxelfaso ganakveTebi, savaWro balansi), maT
Soris, SesamCnevia garkveuli alternativebi. Tu investicia erT-erT
seqtorSi mSp-s maCvenebels mniSvnelovnad zrdis, gansxvavebul seqtorSi
investicias fasebis klebis TvalsazrisiT saukeTeso maCvenebeli aqvs. yvela
makroekonomikuri maCveneblis gaTvaliswinebiT, saukeTeso variantebia
damamuSavebel mrewvelobaSi transportsa da kavSirgabmulobaSi
investireba. sxva scenarebTan SedarebiT, orive SemTxvevaSi mocemulia
umuSevrobis dabali maCvenebeli, maRali saxelfaso ganakveTebi, mSp-sa da
savaWro balansis ufro maRali maCvenebelebi sxva scenarebTan SedarebiT.
soflis meureobaSi investireba gacilebiT ukeTes Sedegs gvaZlevs, vidre
energetikis da restornebis da sastumroebis sferoebSi igive moculobis
investiciebi. mSp-s maCvenebelis mixedviT, kombinirebuli investirebis
SemTxveva odnav ukeTesia, vidre soflis meurneobaSi investireba, magram
dasaqmebis TvalsazrisiT nakleb Sedegiania.
21
miuxedavad imisa, rom mxolod eqvsi scenari ganvixileT, naSromSi
ekonomikis sxvadasxva seqtorSi resuresebis gadanawilebis optimaluri
variantis danaxva mainc SeiZleba. amJamindeli modelis SesaZleblobebis
gasaujobeseblad ufro detaluri kvlevaa saWiro iseTi sakiTxebis
gaTvaliswinebiT, rogoricaa samuSao Zalis arasruli mobiluroba, samuSao
Zalis migracia da sxva.
Tavi 6. soflis meurneobis seqtorSi ganxorcielebuli investiciebis
detaluri Sedegebi
naSromSi detalurad ganvixileT zogadi wonasworuli modelis Sedegebi
soflis meurneobis seqtorSi ganxorcielebuli investiciebisTvis. kerZod,
regionalur WrilSi, rurarul da urbanul doneze SevafaseT umuSevrobis
doneebis cvlileba, aseve, seqtorul WrilSi vaCveneT Sedegebi mTlian
warmoebaze, fasebze, eqsportsa da importze. miRebul Sedegebs Soris
mniSvnelovania aRiniSnos Semdegi:
umuSevrobis erT-erTi yvelaze mniSvnelovani kleba TbilisSi aRiniSneba,
sadac umuSevroba 10 procentuli punqtiT mcirdeba (30%-dan 20%-mde).
yvelaze gamoxatuli efeqti aWaraSi qalaqad umuSevrobazea, sadac 11
procentuli punqtiT aris umuSevroba Semcirebuli, Tumca, aq umuSevroba
kvlav yvelaze maRali, 27% rCeba. umuSevroba 4%-mdea Semcirebuli kaxeTis,
Sida qarTlis, qvemo qarTlis, samcxe javaxeTis, aWaris, guriis da imereTis
rurarul dasaxlebebSi.
soflis meurneobis seqtorSi ganxorcielebuli investiciebi gavlenas
axdens ara marto am seqtoris warmoebis moculobaze, aramed im
seqtorebzec, romlebic soflis meurneobis produqts TavianT warmoebaSi
iyeneben. soflis meurneobis seqtorSi ganxorcielebuli investiciebi
agroproduqtis warmoebas 31%-iT zrdis da dadebiTi garegani efeqti
yvelaze mkafiod damamuSavebel mrewvelobaze aisaxeba, romlis warmoebis
22
moculobac Cveni modelis mixedviT 19%-iT izrdeba. aseve, mniSvnelovan
gavlenas vxedavT vaWrobis sferoSi.
soflis meurneobis produqtebis warmoebis zrda amcirebs mis fass, rac
dadebiTad aisaxeba mosaxleobis realur Semosavalze. Cveni modelis
mixedviT, saSualovadian periodSi, soflis meurneobaSi investiciebi 17% -
iT Seamcirebs agroproduqtebis fasebs. erTi mxriv, gaiafebuli
agroproduqtebi Semcirebisken ubiZgebs produqtebze fass im seqtorebSi,
sadac agroproduqtebs Sualeduri moxmarebisTvis iyeneben. meore mxriv,
gazrdili realuri Semosavlis pirobebSi, izrdeba moTxovna sxvadasxva
seqtoris produqtze, rac fasebis zrdas uwyobs xels. saboloo jamSi es
ori efeqti erTmaneTs abalansebs da zogadi wonasworobis Cveni modelis
mixedviT 2%-ian intervalSi meryeobs sxva seqtorTa produqtebze fasebis
cvlileba. magaliTad, sastumroebisa da restornebis fasebi mcirdeba 2%-
iT, radgan isini arian erT-erTi msxvili pirdapiri momxmareblebi soflis
meurneobis produqtebis. daaxloebiT 1%-iT mcirdeba damamuSavebeli
mrewvelobis fasebi. Tumca, 1-2%-iT izrdeba iseTi seqtorebis fasebi,
rogoricaa, ganaTleba, jandacva, safinanso saqmianoba da sxva.
soflis meurneobas gacilebiT mWidro kavSiri aqvs sxva dargebTan, vidre
danarCen dargebs erTmaneTTan, rac ganpirobebulia imiT, rom soflis
meurneobis produqti upiratesad iyideba adgilobriv bazarze, soflis
meurneobaSi gamoyenebuli Sualeduri resursebi, romelsac sxva dargebi
awarmoeben, naklebad importirebadia. aseve, sxva dargebic aqtiurad iyeneben
soflis meurneobis produqtebs Sualedur resursebad. soflis meurneobis
produqtebis importsa da eqsports Seaqvs Tavisi koreqtivebi, Tumca, es
yvelaferi, rogorc vnaxeT, ver amcirebs soflis meurneobis rolsa da
kavSirs sxva dargebTan.
23
gaTvlebi naTlad gviCvenebs, rom soflis meurneobaSi ganxorcielebuli
investiciebi zrdis seqtoris mwarmoeblurobas da mis
konkurentunarianobas, rac eqsportis zrdiT gamoixateba. zogadi
wonasworobis modelis gaTvlebiT, soflis meurneobis eqsporti
saSualovadian periodSi 70%-iT gaizrdeba. miRebuli Sedegi pasuxs scems
skepticizms imis Sesaxeb, Tu ra resursi da investiciebi sWirdeba dargis
krizisidan gamoyvanas, ramdenad realuria, dRevandeli Tavisufali
globaluri konkurenciis pirobebSi, am dargis konkurentunarianobis
amaRleba. modelis mixedviT, seqtorebis erTmaneTze gadajaWvulobis
gavleniT izrdeba sxva seqtorebis konkurentunarianobac, rogorc ukve
vnaxeT, izrdeba maTi warmoebis moculoba da eqsportic. magaliTad, soflis
meurneobaSi investiciebis Cadeba damamuSavebeli warmoebis produqtebis
eqsports 21%-iT zrdis. sastumroebisa da restornebis servisis eqsporti
11%-iT izrdeba da a.S.
soflis meurneobaSi mimarTuli investiciebi am dargis
konkurentunarianobas, pirvel rigSi, adgilobriv bazarze zrdis, rac
importirebuli produqtebis CanacvlebaSi aisaxeba. modelis mixedviT,
agroproduqtebis importi 15%-iT mcirdeba. Tumca, gazrdili Semosavlebis
xarjze, izrdeba sxva seqtorTa produqtebisa da momsaxurebis importi.
magaliTad, izrdeba moTxovna soflis meurneobaSi gamoyenebuli manqana-
danadgarebze, romlebic adgilobrivad ar iwarmoeba, Sesabamisad, xdeba
maTi importi.
24
kvlevis mecnieruli siaxleebi
disertaciis mecnieruli siaxle mdgomareobs SemdegSi:
• investiciebis simulaciuri asaxvisaTvis agebulia statikuri
zogadi wonasworobis modeli;
• socialuri aRricxvis matriciT asaxulia modelis ricxobrivi
monacemebi. kerZod, dasabuTebulia soflis meurneobis seqtoris
kavSiri ekonomikis sxva dargebTan, gaTvlilia Sinameurneobebis
moxmareba regionebis mixedviT soflisa da qalaqis WrilSi. asve,
asaxulia gadasaxadebi, warmoebaSi kapitalisa da muSaxelis moxmareba
da a.S;
• integrirebuli Sinameurneobebis kvlevis monacemTa analizis
safuZvelze regionul WrilSi gamokvleuli da Sefasebulia soflis
meurneobis komercializaciis maCvenebeli;
• saqarTveloSi pirvelad Seiqmna zogadi wonasworobis modeli,
romlis gamoyenebiT, Sesabamis gantolebaTa sistemebis amoxsniT
dadgenilia investiciebis gavlenis done umuSevrobaze regionebis
mixedviT, soflisa da qalaqis WrilSi), fasebze (seqtorebis mixedviT),
importsa da eqsportze (seqtorebis mixedviT), realur xelfassa da
mTlian warmoebaze (seqtorebis mixedviT);
• SedarebiTi analizis gziT gamovlenilia sxvadasxva seqtorSi
Cadebuli investiciebis upiratesobebi;
sadisertacio naSromis moculoba
sadisertacio naSromis moculobaa 189 gverdi da Sedgeba Sesavlis, eqvsi
Tavis, cameti qveTavisa da daskvniTi nawilisagan. naSromSi aseve
warmodgenilia gamoyenebuli literaturis CamonaTvali da danarTebi.
25
sadisertacio naSromis struqtura
Sesavali 1
1. saqarTvelos soflis meurneobis ganviTarebis mimoxilva 8
1.1. ZiriTadi tendeciebi da Semaferxebeli faqtorebi 8
1.2. miwis bazris ganviTarebis analizi 25
1.3. agro dazRveva da finansur resursebze wvdomis analizi 45
1.4. soflis meurneobaSi mimdinare proeqtebisa da programebis
mimoxilva
53
2. investiciebis Sedegebis Semafasebeli kvlevebis mimoxilva 78
2.1. arCevani siRaribis aRmofxvrasa da swraf ekonomikur zrdas
Soris
79
2.2. infrastruqturis ganviTareba 82
2.3. pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis gavlena Semosavlebis
uTanasworobaze
87
3. zogadi wonasworobis modeli 99
3.1. zogadi wonasworobis modeli mikroekonomikaSi 99
3.2. zogadi wonasworuli modelis arsi, daSvebebi da
relevanturoba
102
3.3. pirveli zogadi wonasworobis modeli saqarTvelosTvis 107
4. saqarTvelos socialuri aRricxvis matrica 115
4.1. ekonomikuri seqtorebisa da produqtebis disagregacia 115
4.2. Sinameurneobebi da saxelmwifo zogadi wonasworobis modelSi 120
4.3. socialuri aRricxvis matricis disagregacia 123
5. saqarTvelos ekonomikis sxvadasxva seqtorSi investiciebis
modelirebis Sedegebi
131
6. soflis meurneobis seqtorSi ganxorcielebuli investiciebis
detaluri Sedegebi
140
daskvnebi 150
danarTi 158
26
a) zogadi wonasworobis modelis kodi 158
b) warmoebis funqciidan fasebze damokidebuli danaxarjebis
funqciis miReba – kerZo SemTxveva
174
g) soflis mxardaWeris programis farglebSi gamoyofili Tanxebi,
2013
175
d) resursebisa da gamoyenebis cxrilebi, 2011 176
e) naSromSi gamoyenebuli Sinameurneobebis integrirebuli
gamokvlevis monacemTa bazis velebis aRwera
179
gamoyenebuli literatura 185