CLIMATE CHANGE - AN UNPRECENDENTED CHALLENGE

TO MANKIND AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR GLOBAL

SCIENCE-SOCIETY RELATIONS

Mike HarrisonOxford University Centre for the Environment

King’s College, University of Londonmikeharrison26@btinternet.com

With acknowledgements to Lucka Kajfez Bogotaj and Richard Washington

Some IPCC AR4 Highlights - Working Group I - Science

• “Very high confidence” that [the] global … effect of human activities [is] one of warming

• Warming of the climate system is unequivocal• Numerous long-term changes in climate have

been observed [but some aspects not]• Continued … emissions … [will] induce changes

very likely larger than those during the 20th Century

• Anthropogenic warming would continue for centuries

Carbon emissions

(Gt/yr)

CO2 concentration (ppm)

Projections of future climate changes The future depends on human choices about emissions.

600 ppmv CO2 equiv (B1) Best estimate is +1.8°C [likely 1.1-2.9°C] by 2100;

1550 ppmv (A1FI) Best 4°C [likely 2.4-6.4°C]

CO2 equivalent: 600 ->1550

Changes across the century for 3 month averages of 10-20ºC and 50-

200 mm/month

Some IPCC AR4 Highlights - Working Group II - Impacts

• Many natural systems are being affected by regional climate changes, particularly temperature increases

• It is likely that anthropogenic warming has had a discernible influence on many physical and biological systems

• Future impacts are expected in: freshwater resources; ecosystems; food, fibre and forest products; coastal systems; industry, settlement and society; health

• Some adaptation is occurring now• Adaptation will be necessary• Vulnerability … can be exacerbated by … other stresses

Regions most affectedRegions most affected

• The Arctic• Sub-Saharan Africa• Small islands• Asian megadeltas

In EUROPE greatest impacts on – Arctic regions – Moisture-limited

ecosystems – Mediterranean

Vulnerable systems and sectorsVulnerable systems and sectors• Some ecosystems:

– Coral reefs; sea-ice regions– Tundra, boreal forests, mountain and

Mediterranean regions• Low-lying coasts, mangroves & salt marshes• Water resources in mid-latitudes & dry Tropics• Low-latitude agriculture• Human health where adaptive capacity is low• 20% - 30% of plants and animals at high risk of

extinction if ∆T 1.5°C - 2.5°C

Increased water availability(2070 ca.1/5)

Increased forest growth

(only in the beginning?)

Increasedyields(only in the beginning? )

Decreased yields

Decreased water availability( 2070 ca.1/3)

Increased fire risk

S EuropeN Europe

EuropeNorth ↔ South differences

The costs of stabilising the climate are manageable – delay would be dangerous and much more costly

• Climate change could lead to floods, massive population shifts, and wars over natural resources.• Ecosystems are unlikely to be able to adapt at the rapid rates of change expected.

Damages from climate change rise disproportionately with temperature !!! (A 25% increase in storm wind speeds is associated with an almost 7-foldincrease in damages to buildings).

Stern Review (2006)

5% GDPIncome losses if we do

nothing: market impacts only

20% GDPIncome loss including non-market

impacts, risk and equity

1% GDPCosts of mitigation to stabilise

emissions at 550ppm by 2050

vs

Some IPCC AR4 Highlights - Working Group III - Mitigation

• With current … policies … global GHG emissions will continue to grow over the next few decades

• … studies indicate that there is substantial economic potential for the mitigation of global GHG emissions

• Changes in lifestyle and behaviour patterns can contribute to … mitigation

AR4 Outcomes - Some Recent Developments

• It has been agreed to produce an AR5 using the same IPCC WG structure

• A growing recognition of the limited abilities of current models to simulate regional climates (including rainfall) and their changes

• New initiatives to develop higher-resolution models and to improve ensemble approaches

Scientific Support to the IPCC• From 4 International Programmes (ESSP - Earth Systems

Science Programmes) under ICSU (International Council for Science)

DIVERSITAS

International Geosphere Biosphere ProgrammeIGBP

STARTGlobal Change System for

Analysis, Research and Training

World Climate Research ProgrammeWCRP

Also WMO

Working Group I Science

International Human Dimensions ProgrammeIHDP

Working Group II Impacts Working Group III Mitigation

IPCC

International Policy Making based on IPCC Advice

IPCC

SBSTASubsidiary Body for

Scientific and TechnologicalAdvice

SBISubsidiary Body for Implementation

UNFCCCUnited Nations Framework

Convention on Climate Change

Four Fundamentals of the UNFCCC - 1: Definition

• “Climate change” means a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods.

Four Fundamentals of the UNFCCC - 2: Objective

• The ultimate objective of this Convention … is to achieve … stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.

• According to IPCC WGII AR4:– With very high confidence, no temperature threshold

associated with any subjective judgment of what might constitute “dangerous” climate change can be guaranteed to be avoided by anything but the most stringent of mitigation interventions.

Four Fundamentals of the UNFCCC - 3: Mitigation

• Each of these [Annex I] Parties shall adopt national policies and take corresponding measures on the mitigation of climate change, by limiting its anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and protecting and enhancing its greenhouse gas sinks and reservoirs.

Kyoto Protocol (1997) Bali Action Plan (2007) Cap and Trade

Role of Global Environment Facility (GEF) in Mitigation

• Set up within World Bank to manage funding re the Rio Conventions (with UNFCCC are the related conventions on Desertification and Sustainable Development)

• One founding principle is that GEF does not help fund ‘normal’ national activities, only extensions to those activities in line with the Conventions

• Within context of mitigation:– CDM (Clean Development Mechanism)– JI (Joint Implementation)

Four Fundamentals of the UNFCCC - 4: Adaptation

• Cooperate in preparing for adaptation to the impacts of climate change; develop and elaborate appropriate and integrated plans for coastal zone management, water resources and agriculture, and for the protection and rehabilitation of areas, particularly in Africa, affected by drought and desertification, as well as floods

National Adaptation Plans of Action (NAPAs) Nairobi Work Programme (2005)

Role of GEF in Adaptation• Strategic Priority for Adaptation

– Concrete adaptation projects; measures for reducing vulnerability; increasing adaptive capacity; e.g.s Kiribati Adaptation Programme, Lake Balaton integrated vulnerability assessment, Community based adaptation programme

• Least Developed Countries Fund– NAPAs; funding to adaptation programmes in Bangladesh, Bhutan, Eritrea,

Niger,Malawi, Mauritania, Samoa• Special Climate Change Fund

– Four financing avenues for developing countries: adaptation; technology transfer; energy,transport, industry,agriculture,forestry and waste management; economic diversification

• Coping with Drought and Climate Change (Ethiopia, Mozambique, Zimbabwe)

• Other projects in Tanzania, Guyana, Kenya, Bolivia, Peru, Venezuela, Ecuador, China

• [Also UNFCCC Adaptation Fund]

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Differences between Mitigation and Adaptation

Mitigation AdaptationUniversal benefit Local benefit

Links to main economy Links to main and local economies

Generally major commercial interest All types of commercial and national/local interests

Perception of need to act in short time scale

Initial perception that action might wait

Extensive research More restricted research and numerous contexts

Readily portable; ‘easy’ knowledge management

Not necessarily readily portable; complex knowledge management

What is Adaptation? - 1 Shocks

Globally about 70% of disasters/shocks come as hydro-meteorological events in terms of deaths and damage; for numbers affected it is in excess of 95% (IFRC/CRED)

According to IPCC WGII AR4: … confidence has increased that some weather events and extremes will become more frequent, more widespread and/or more intense during the 21st Century

In part we are building greater vulnerability while at the same time not always increasing resilience

Endogenous Future Current

What is Adaptation? - 2 Shocks Endogenous

This is the manner of natural societal adaptation over many millennia

Undoubtedly this will be an significant approach during the future

Future Current

What is Adaptation? - 3 Shocks Endogenous Future

To a major extent this is the prime area considered by the IPCC, including:

Future sea level rise Changes in ecological/agricultural zones New or modified threats to health/food production/water

supplies Changes and new stresses to social structures - migration and

conflict Current

What is Adaptation? - 4 Shocks Endogenous Future Current

– Tanzania is one of the poorest countries in the world. Its population of some 33 million is growing at about 2.8% per year. Annual per capita income is approximately $250. The economy, and most of its population, is heavily dependent on agriculture, which accounts for some 50% of GDP and provides 85% of exports. As such, Tanzania’s economy is vulnerable to climatic conditions, notably floods and drought, with some regions being particularly drought-prone.

UNFCCC Nairobi Work Programme

• Objectives:– To assist all Parties, in particular developing

countries, including the least developed countries and small island developing States, to improve their understanding and assessment of impacts, vulnerability and adaptation; and

– To assist all Parties to make informed decisions on practical adaptation actions and measures to respond to climate change on a sound scientific, technical and socio-economic basis, taking into account current and future climate change and variability.

UNFCCC Nairobi Work Programme

• Nine action areas:– Methods and tools – Data and observations– Climate modelling, scenarios and downscaling– Climate related risks and extreme events– Socio-economic information– Adaptation planning and practices– Research– Technologies for adaptation– Economic diversification

Nairobi Work Programme• Organisations involved:

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UN Adaptation Activities

• Numerous across many organisations - but often not coordinated

• Assessments of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change (AIACC) START

• Climate for Development in Africa (ClimDevAfrica) G8/AfDB/AUC

Current Adaptation

• Not much long-term planning in very poor African countries: LDCs

• Lack of expertise (brain drain) for planning• Lack of finance to implement plans• Current contribution of climate services to

development in most LDCs is not easily distinguishable from zero ….. compared with what is needed.

Current Adaptation• A fourth reason why some Goals are not being met is simply

that policymakers are unaware of the challenges, unaware of what to do, or neglectful of core public issues. Environmental policy is often grossly neglected because of politically weak environment ministries, even weaker law enforcement, and considerable deficiencies in information and in the capacity to act on that information. Few governments currently have the capacity to assess the deep links between ecosystem services (hydrology, biodiversity, natural hazard reduction) and poverty reduction. The environment is much too often taken as given, or regarded as a resource to be exploited.

Current Adaptation

• Multiple sectors involved, limited research base

• Necessary data are often either missing, of doubtful quality, or difficult to access

• Has tended to be a focus on climate predictions, especially seasonal forecasts

• Often seen/managed as a one-off activity independent of other major issues, such as the Millennium Development Goals, other Rio Conventions, etc.

Decision Making and Policy

• In all instances adaptation requires some form of decision process, yet these decision processes are often poorly defined Espoo Conference

• Further adaptation needs appropriate policy frameworks in which to function effectively INCLUDE

• Ideally adaptation should be planned within the contexts of other related challenges Millennium Development Goals, other Rio and environmental Conventions, etc.

Summarising Issues

• Key outcomes for adaptation activities:– Focus– Legacy– Integration with other activities– Appropriate adjustment to or creation of

policies– Ideally, portability