Migration and Development and Migration as Development

Lant PritchettKennedy School of Government

Presentation toConference on International Migration and Development

January 18, 2008

Migration and Development:Four Hard Issues

• Migration as Development—Income Per Natural

• Hard-core ghost countries?• Bias in development due to research

priorities in rich countries• Brain Drain• When does the median voter stop

opposing migration from poor countries?

In many cases those who escape poverty do so by moving

Percent of non-poor residing in the USA (at global and US poverty

lines)

26.2

0.7

14.9

82

27.2

42.5

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Haiti India Mexico

at 2$/day

at 10$/day

There are countries of cumulatively 100 million people for whom income per natural exceeds GDP

per resident by 30 percent

Population mobility has been an adjustment to changing

circumstances

A d a ir

A d a m s

A lla m a k e e

A p p a n o o s e

A u d o b o n

B e n to n

B la c kHa wk

B o o n e

B re m e r

B u c h a n a n

B u e n aV is ta B u tle r

Ca lh o u n

Ca rro ll

Ca s s

Ce d a r

Ce rroG o rd o

Ch e ro k e e

Ch ic k a s a w

Cla rk e

Cla y

Cla y to n

Clin to n

Cra wfo rd

Da lla s

Da visDe c a tu r

De la w a re

De sM o in e s

Dic k in s o n

Du b u q u e

E m m e t

Fa y e tte

Flo y d

Fra n k lin

Fre m o n t

G re e n e

G ru n d y

G u th rie

Ha m ilto n

Ha n c o c k

Ha rd in

Ha rris o n

He n ry

Ho wa rd

Hu m b o ld t

Id a

Io wa

Ja c k s o n

Ja s p e r

Je ffe rs o n

Jo h n s o n

Jo n e s

K e o k u k

K o s s u th

L e e

L in n

L o u is a

L u c a s

L y o n

M a d is o n M a h a s k aM a rio n

M a rs h a ll

M ills

M itc h e ll

M o n o n a

M o n ro eM o n tg o m e ry

M u s c a tin e

O Õ B rie n

O s c e o la

P a g e

P a loA lto

P ly m o u th P o c a h o n ta s

P o lk

P o tta wa tta m ie

P o we s h ie k

Rin g g o ld

S a c

S c o ttS h e lb y

S io u x

S to ryTa m a

Ta y lo r

Un io n

V a n B u re n

W a p e llo

W a rre n W a s h in g to n

W a y n e

W e b s te r

W in n e b a g o

W in n e s h ie k

W o o d b u ry

W o rth

W rig h t

A d a ir

A n d re w

A t c h is o n

A u d ra in

B a rry

B a rt o n

B a te s B e n to n

B o llin g e r

B o o n e

B u c h a n a n

B u t le r

Ca ld w e ll

Ca lla wa y

Ca m d e n

Ca p eG ira rd e a u

Ca rro ll

Ca rt e r

Ca s s

Ce d a r

Ch a rit o n

Ch ris t ia n

Cla rk

Cla y

Clin to n

Co le

Co o p e r

Cra w fo rd

Da d e

Da lla s

Da vie s s DeK a lb

De n t

Do u g la s

Du n k lin

F ra n k lin

G a s c o n a d e

G e n t ry

G re e n e

G ru n d y

Ha rr is o n

He n ry

Hic k o ry

Ho lt

Ho wa rd

Ho we ll

Iro n

Ja c k s o n

Ja s p e r

Je ffe rs o n

Jo h n s o n

K n o x

L a c le d e

L a fa y e t t e

L a w re n c e

L e w is

L in c o ln

L in n

L ivin g s t o n

M c Do n a ld

M a c o n

M a d is o n

M a rie s

M a rio n

M e rc e r

M ille r

M is s is s ip p i

M o n ite a u

M o n ro e

M o n t g o m e ry

M o rg a n

Ne w M a d r id

Ne wt o n

No d a wa y

O re g o n

O s a g e

O z a rk

P e m is c o t

P e rry

P e t t is

P h e lp s

P ik eP la t te

P o lk

P u la s k i

P u tn a m

Ra lls

Ra n d o lp hRa y

Re y n o ld s

Rip le y

S t . Ch a r le s

S t . C la ir

S t e .G e n e vie ve

S t .F ra n c o is

S t . L o u is

S a lin e

S c h u y le r S c o t la n d

S c o t t

S h a n n o n

S h e lb y

S t o d d a rdS t o n e

S u lliva n

Ta n e y

Te x a s

V e rn o n

W a rre n

W a s h in g to n

W a y n e

W e b s te r

W o rt h

W rig h t

S t . L o u isCit y

A dam s

A ntelope

A rthurB anner

B laine

B oone

B ox B utte

B oyd

B rown

B uffalo

B urt

B ut ler

C ass

C edar

C hase

C herry

C heyenne

C lay

C olfax

C um ing

C uster

D akota

D awes

D aws on

D euel

D ixon

D odge

D ouglas

D undy

F illm ore

Frank lin

Front ier

Furnas

G age

G arden

G arfield

G osper

G rant

G reeley

H allH am ilton

H arlan

H ayes

H itchcock

H olt

H ooker

H oward

Jefferson

Johns on

K earney

K eith

K eya P aha

K im ball

K nox

Lancaster

Lincoln

Logan

Loup

M cP herson

M adison

M errick

M orrill

N ance

N em aha

N uckolls

O toe

P awnee

P erk ins

P helps

P ierce

P lat te

P olk

R ed W illow

R ichardson

R ock

S aline

S arpyS aunders

S cot ts B luff

S eward

S heridan

S herm an

S ioux

S tanton

Thayer

Thom asThurs ton

V alley

W ashington

W ayne

W ebster

W heeler

Y ork

A llen

A nderson

A tc hison

B arber

B arton

B ourbon

B row n

B ut ler

C hase

C hautauquaC herokee

C heyenne

C lark

C lay

C loud

C offey

C om ancheC ow ley

C raw ford

D ecatur

D ick inson

D oniphan

D ouglas

E dw ards

E lk

E llis

E llsw orth

F inney

Ford

Frank lin

GearyGove

Graham

Grant

Gray

Greeley

Greenw ood

H am ilton

H arper

H arvey

H askell

H odgem an

Jacks on

Jefferson

Jew ell

Johns on

K earny

K ingm anK iow a

Labette

Lane

Leavenw orth

Lincoln

Linn

Logan

Lyon

M arion

M arshall

M cP herson

M eade

M iam i

M itchell

M ontgom ery

M orris

M orton

N em aha

N eosho

N ess

N orton

Osage

Osborne

Ottaw a

P aw nee

P hillips

P ot taw atom ie

P ratt

R aw lins

R eno

R epublic

R ice

R ileyR ooks

R ush

R ussell

S aline

S cot t

S edgw ic k

S ew ard

S haw nee

S heridanS herm an

S m ith

S tafford

S tanton

S tevens

S um ner

Thom as

Trego W abaunseeW allace

W ashington

W ichita

W ilson

W oodson

W y andot te

A u ro ra

B e a d le

B e n n e tt

B o nHo m m e

B ro o k in g s

B ro wn

B ru le

B u ffa lo

B u tte

Ca m p b e ll

Ch a rle s M ix

Cla rk

Cla y

Co d in g to n

Co rs o n

Cu s te r

Da vis o n

Da y

De u e l

De we y

Do u g la s

E d m u n d s

Fa ll R ive r

Fa u lkG ra n t

G re g o ry

Ha a k o n

Ha m linHa n d

Ha n s o n

Ha rd in g

Hu g h e s

Hu tc h in s o n

Hy d e

Je ra u ldJo n e s

K in g s b u ry

L a k e

L a w re n c e

L in c o ln

L y m a n

M c Co o k

M c P h e rs o nM a rs h a ll

M e a d e

M e lle tte

M in e r

M in n e h a h a

M o o d y

P e n n in g to n

P e rk in s

P o tte r

Ro b e rts

S a n b o rn

S h a n n o n

S p in k

S ta n le y

S u lly

To d d

Trip p

Tu rn e r

Un io n

W a lwo rth

Y a n k to n

Ja c k s o n

Zie b a c h

A d a m s

B a rn e s

B e n s o n

B ill in g s

B o ttin e a u

B o wm a n

B u rk e

B u rle ig h

Ca s s

Ca va lie r

Dic k e y

Divid e

Du n n

E d d y

E m m o n s

Fo s te r

G o ld e nV a lle y

G ra n dFo rk s

G ra n t

G rig g s

He ttin g e r

K id d e r

L a M o u reL o g a n

M c He n ry

M c In to s h

M c K e n z ieM c L e a n

M e rc e r

M o rto n

M o u n tra il

Ne ls o n

O live r

P e m b in a

P ie rc e Ra m s e y

Ra n s o m

Re n ville

Ric h la n d

Ro le tte

S a rg e n t

S h e rid a n

S io u x

S lo p e

S ta rk

S te e le

S tu ts m a n

To w n e r

Tra il l

W a ls hW a rd

W e lls

W ill ia m s

W o o d wa rd

A d a ir

A lfa lfa

A t o k a

B e a ve r

B e c k h a m

B la in e

B ry a n

Ca d d o

Ca n a d ia n

Ca rt e r

Ch e ro k e e

Ch o c t a w

Cim a rro n

Cle ve la n d

Co a lCo m a n c h e

Co t t o n

Cra ig

Cre e k

Cu s te r

De la w a re

De we y

E llis

G a rfie ld

G a rvin

G ra d y

G ra n t

G re e r

Ha rm o n

Ha rp e r

Ha s k e ll

Hu g h e s

Ja c k s o n

Je ffe rs o n

Jo h n s to n

K a y

K in g fis h e r

K io waL a t im e r

L e F lo re

L in c o ln

L o g a n

L o ve

M c Cla in

M c Cu rt a in

M a c In t o s h

M a jo r

M a rs h a ll

M a y e s

M u rra y

M u s k o g e e

No b le

No wa t a

O k fu s k e eO k la h o m a

O k m u lg e e

O s a g e

O t t a w a

P a wn e e

P a y n e

P it t s b u rg

P o n to to c

P o t t a w a t o m ie

P u s h m a t a h a

Ro g e r M ills

Ro g e rs

S e m in o le

S e q u o y a h

S t e p h e n s

Te x a s

Tillm a n

Tu ls a

W a g o n e r

W a s h in g to n

W a s h it a

W o o d s

A rk ansas

A shley

B ax terB entonB oone

B radley

C alhoun

C arroll

C hicot

C lark

C lay

C leburne

C leveland

C olum bia

C onw ay

C raighead

C raw ford

C rit tendenC ross

D allasD esha

D rew

Faulkner

F rank lin

Fulton

G arland

G rant

G reene

H em pstead

H ot S pring

H ow ard

Independence

Iz ard

Jacks on

Jefferson

Johns on

Lafayet te

Law rence

Lee

Lincoln

Litt le R iver

Logan

Lonoke

M adison

M arion

M iller

M is s iss ippi

M onroeM ontgom ery

N evada

N ew ton

O uachita

P erry

P hillips

P ike

P oins et t

P olk

P ope

P rairieP ulas k i

R andolph

S t. F ranc is

S aline

S cot t

S earcy

S ebas t ian

S evier

S harp

S tone

U nion

V an B uren

W ashington

W hiteW oodruff

Y ell

A d a m s

A lc o r n

A m it e

A t t a la

B e n t o n

B o liv a r

C a lh o u n

C a r r o ll

C h ic k a s a w

C h o c t a w

C la ib o r n eC la r k e

C la y

C o a h o m a

C o p ia h

C o v in g t o n

D e S o t o

F o r r e s tF r a n k lin

G e o r g e

G r e e n e

G r e n a d a

H a n c o c k

H a r r is o n

H in d s

H o lm e sH u m p h r e y s

Is s a q u e n a

It a w a m b a

Ja c k s o n

Ja s p e r

Je f f e r s o nD a v is

Jo n e s

K e m p e r

L a f a y e t t e

L a m a r

L a u d e r d a le

L a w r e n c e

L e a k e

L e e

L e f lo r e

L in c o ln

L o w n d e s

M a d is o n

M a r io n

M a r s h a ll

M o n r o e

M o n tg o m e r y

N e s h o b a

N e w to n

N o xu b e e

O k t ib b e h a

P a n o la

P e a r l R iv e r

P e r r yP ik e

P o n t o to c

P r e n t is s

Q u itm a n

R a n k in

S c o t t

S h a r k e y

S im p s o n

S m it h

S to n e

S u n f lo w e r

T a lla h a t c h ie

T a t eT ip p a h

T is h o m in g o

T u n ic a

U n io n

W a lt h a ll

W a r r e n

W a s h in g to n

W a y n e

W e b s t e r

W ilk in s o n

W in s t o n

Y a lo b u s h a

Y a zo o

Je f f e r s o n

Autauga

Baldwin

Barbour

Bibb

Blount

Bulloc k

Butle r

Calhoun

Cham bers

Cherok ee

Chilton

Choc taw

Clark e

Clay

Cleburne

Coffee

Colbert

Conec uh

Coos a

Covington

Crens haw

Cullm an

Dale

Dallas

De Kalb

Elm ore

Es c am bia

Etowah

F ay ette

F rank lin

Geneva

Greene

Hale

Henry

Hous ton

Jac k s on

Jeffers onLam ar

Lauderda le

Lawrenc e

Lee

Lim es tone

Lowndes

M ac on

M adis on

M arengo

M arion

M ars ha ll

M obile

M onroe

M ontgom ery

M organ

Perry

Pic k ens

Pik e

Randolph

Rus s ell

S t. Cla ir

Shelby

Sum ter

Ta lladega

Ta llapoos a

Tus c aloos a

W alk er

W as h ington

W ilc ox

W ins ton

S t. M a rtin

S t. M a rtin

A c a d ia

A lle n

A s c e n s io n

A s s u m p tio n

A vo y e lle s

B e a u re g a rd

B ie n vil le

B o s s ie r

Ca d d o

Ca lc a s ie u

Ca ld w e ll

Ca m e ro n

Ca ta h o u la

Cla ib o rn e

Co n c o rd ia

De S o to

E a s tB a to n

Ro u g e

E a s tCa rro ll

E a s tFe lic ia n a

E va n g e lin e

Fra n k lin

G ra n t

Ib e ria

Ib e rvil le

Ja c k s o n

Je ffe rs o n

Je ffe rs o nDa vis

L a fa y e tte

L a fo u rc h e

L a S a lle

L in c o ln

L ivin g s to n

M a d is o n

M o re h o u s e

Na tc h ito c h e s

O rle a n s

O u a c h ita

P la q u e m in e s

P o in teCo u p e e

Ra p id e s

Re dRive r

Ric h la n d

S a b in e

S t. B e rn a rdS t. Ch a rle s

S t.He le n a

S t. Ja m e s

S t. Jo h nth e B a p tis t

S t. L a n d ry

S t. M a ry

S t. Ta m m a n y

Ta n g ip a h o a

Te n s a s

Te rre b o n n e

Un io n

V e rm ilio n

V e rn o n

W a s h in g to n

W e b s te r

W e s tB a to nRo u g e

W e s tCa rro ll

W e s tFe lic ia n a

W in n

A n d e rso n

A n d re w s

A n g e l i n a

A ra n sa s

A rc h e r

A rm st ro n g

A ta sc o sa

A u st i n

B a i l e y

B a n d e ra

B a st ro p

B a y l o r

B e e

B e l l

B e x a r

B l a n c o

B o rd e n

B o sq u e

B o w i e

B ra z o r i a

B ra z o s

B re w st e r

B ri sc o e

B ro o ks

B ro w n

B u r l e so n

B u rn e t

C a l d w e l l

C a l h o u n

C a l l a h a n

C a m e ro n

C a m p

C a rso n

C a ss

C a st ro

C h a m b e rs

C h e ro ke e

C h i l d re ss

C l a y

C o c h ra n

C o ke

C o l e m a n

C o l l i n

C o l l i n g sw o rth

C o l o ra d o

C o m a l

C o m a n c h e

C o n c h o

C o o ke

C o ry e l l

Cottle

C ra n e

C ro c ke t t

C ro sb y

C u l b e rso n

D a l l a m

D a l l a sD a w so n

D e a f S m i t h

D e l ta

D e n t o n

D e W i t t

D i c ke n s

D i m m i t

D o n l e y

D u v a l

E a st l a n d

E c t o r

E d w a rd s

E l l i s

E l P a so

E ra th

F a l l s

F a n n i n

F a y e t t e

F i sh e r

F l o y d

Foard

F o rt B e n d

F ra n kl i n

F re e st o n e

F r i o

G a i n e s

G a l v e sto nG a l v e sto n

G a rz a

G i l l e sp i e

G l a ssc o c k

G o l i a d

G o n z a l e s

G ra y

G ra y so n

G re g g

G ri m e s

G u a d a l u p e

H a l e

H a l l

H a m i l to n

H a n sf o rd

H a rd e m a n

H a rd i n

H a rri s

H a rri so n

H a rt l e y

H a ske l l

H a y s

H e m p h i l l

H e n d e rso n

H i d a l g o

H i l l

H o c kl e y

H o o d

H o p ki n s

H o u st o n

H o w a rd

H u d sp e t h

H u n t

H u t c h i n so n

I ri o n

J a c k

J a c kso n

J a sp e r

J e f f D a v i s

J e f f e rso n

J i m H o g g

J i mW e l l s

J o h n so n

J o n e s

K a rn e s

K a u f m a n

K e n d a l l

K e n e d y

K e n t

K e rr

K i m b l e

K i n g

K i n n e y

K l e b e rg

K n o xL a m a r

L a m b

L a m p a sa s

L a S a l l e

L a v a c a

L e e

L e o n

L i b e rty

L i m e sto n e

L i p sc o m b

L i v e O a k

L l a n o

L o v i n g

L u b b o c k

L y n n

M c C u l l o c h

M c L e n n a n

M c M u l l e n

M a d i so n

M a ri o n

M a rt i n

M a so n

M a ta g o rd a

M a v e r i c k

M e d i n a

M e n a rd

M i d l a n d

M i l a m

M i l l s

M i t c h e l l

M o n t a g u e

M o n t g o m e ry

M o o re

M o rr i s

Motley

N a c o g d o c h e s

N a v a rro

N e w to n

N o l a n

N u e c e s

O c h i l t re e

O l d h a m

O ra n g e

P a l o P i n to

P a n o l a

P a rke r

P a rm e r

P e c o s P o l k

P o t te r

P re si d i o

R a i n s

R a n d a l l

R e a g a n

R e a l

R e d R i v e r

R e e v e s

R e f u g i o

R o b e rts

R o b e rtso n

R o c kw a l l

R u n n e l s

R u sk

S a b i n e

S a nA u g u st i n e

S a nJ a c i n t o

S a n P a t r i c i o

S a n S a b a

S c h l e i c h e r

S c u rryS h a c kl e fo rd

S h e l b y

S h e rm a n

S m i t h

S o m e rv e l l

S ta rr

S te p h e n s

S te rl i n g

S to n e w a l l

S u t to n

S w i sh e r

T a rra n t

T a y l o r

T e rre l l

T e rry T h ro c km o rto n T i t u s

T o mG re e n

T ra v i s

T ri n i t y

T y l e r

U p sh u r

U p t o n

U v a l d e

V a l V e rd e

V a nZ a n d t

V i c to ri a

W a l ke r

W a l l e r

W a rd

W a sh i n g t o n

W e b b

W h a rto n

W h e e l e r

W i c h i t a

W i l b a rg e r

W i l l a c y

W i l l i a m so n

W i l so n

W i n kl e r

W i se

W o o d

Y o a ku m Y o u n g

Z a p a ta

Z a v a l a

R ed = C o u n ty D ec lin ed ; N et D ec lin e b e tw een 0 an d 5 ,0 0 0P u r p le= C o u n ty D ec lin ed ; N et D ec lin e b e tw een 5 ,0 0 0 an d 1 0 ,0 0 0Blu e= C o u n ty D ec lin ed ; N et D ec lin e g r ea te r th an 1 0 ,0 0 0G r een = C o u n ty I n c r eas ed b y m o r e th an 1 0 ,0 0 0

There are regions of the USA withOnly a third the population they would have had without outward migration

The proliferation of sovereigns plus labor immobility

• International system is premised on closed borders.

• There is not compelling reason to believe that all borders were drawn so as to include an economically viable and prosperous region.

• If you trap labor in places with declining demand you produce falling wages.

Are the nurses of the future Robots or Rosalie?

The historically huge decrease in the cost of capital and the rise in returns to education—unskilled labor is threatened

by skill biased technical change—lack of labor mobility exacerbate this problem?

Coping with demographics with robots

Aging Japan Building Robots To Look After Elderly (news headline)

Bias in research

• The one thing we know about “poverty reducing economic growth” or “inclusive growth” is that it is labor intensive.

• Much technological progress is unskilled labor displacing (e.g. ATMs, automated check-out) because plentiful high skill and cheap capital plus border restrictions—labor saving technical change

• Potentially a more serious impediment to development than any other research bias (e.g. in medicine)

Brain Drain: high private returns but mixed evidence on growth

impact

Figure 1a: Schooling and GDP per person in Venezuela

tsyr

15

year

rgd

pch

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

2

3

4

5

6

7

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

In environments with poor economic conditions more human capital does not lead to growth

In environments with poor economic conditions more human capital does not lead to growth

While voters closed borders in the early 20th century, the huge historical spread in incomes raises the question: are the median voter in rich countries and an unskilled migrant

still really substitutes?

Source: Author’s calculations with many assumptions

Five hard questions

• Is migration itself development?• Are there ghost countries, and if so, how can

they be handled?• How can one mitigate the damage of labor

displacing innovation created by barriers of labor?

• Is Brain Drain a problem when it is draining from countries where it is under utilized?

• When does the median voter become pro-migration?