midterm sample adm 3301

8/11/2019 Midterm Sample ADM 3301

1/19

(1)

ADM 3301

Sample Mid-term Exam

Duration: 2.5 hours

Student name:_______________________ Student No.__________________

INST !"TI#NS:

1- Write down the exam copy number (that exists at the top right corner of this page) on the identification whitecard next to your name.

2- erify that your exam has ! pages (inc"uding this tit"e page).#- $nswer a"" %uestions on your examination copy. !$e t%e oppo$ite (&lan') $ide i ne*e$$ar+ . $nswers or

ca"cu"ations written on the sheet of notes wi"" not be e&a"uated.'- ustify a"" answers with proper arguments and or ca"cu"ations. *e precise+ c"ear and concise: ambiguous or

&ague statements wi"" be considered fa"se. ,"ease write "egib"y.5- his is a c"osed-boo exam: howe&er+ one doub"e sided sheet (/.50 x 110) of notes and a ca"cu"ator are

permitted for arithmetic use on"y. T%e $%eet o note$ mu$t &e %anded o,er it% t%e exam *op+ at t%e endo t%e exam period or el$e +our *op+ ill not &e mar'ed.

- N# "#MM!NI"ATI#N DE I"ES MA/ E IT2IN SI 2T D! IN T2E E4AM 5E I#D.

5ro&lem$ De$*ription Mar'$ e$ult

1. mith 3achine ,arts2. 4ndependent uestions#. ,roduct 6'. easide 4nc.5. ri-bi e

. ransportation ab"e

ota"

7orecasting7orecasting7orecasting$ggregate ,"anning

ransportationransportation


2/19

(6)

7ue$tion 1: 8ore*a$tin9 ( mar'$)

8ach 7riday+ mith 3achine ,arts ( 3,) 9 D has to forecast the next wee s demand for brac ets ;#5


3/19

(3)

7ue$tion 6: 8ore*a$tin9 (; mar'$)

(a) Bapem 8"ectrica" has ca"cu"ated forecast errors to chec on the accuracy of a particu"ar set of demand forecasts. he errors were consistent"y positi&e. Cow do you interpret this fact in terms of comparing the actua" demand with the forecast demand

(b) 8nro""ment in a particu"ar c"ass for the "ast four semesters has been 12@+ 12 + 11@ and 1#@.uppose a one-semester mo&ing a&erage is used to forecast enro""ment (this is sometimes referred

to as a nai&e forecast). hus+ the forecast for the second semester wou"d be 12@+ the forecast for the third semester wou"d be 12 + and the forecast for the fourth semester wou"d be 11@. Whatwou"d the 3$D be for this situation

8nro""ment 7orecast

12@ - 12 12@ 11@ 12 1#@ 11@

(c) 4n order to chec the accuracy of a forecast+ a student had the idea of running a regression with thedemand as the exp"anatory &ariab"e and the forecast as the dependent &ariab"e. he coefficient of determination was @.! . What does this te"" you about the accuracy of the forecasts

(d) What is the idea behind the De"phi techni%ue Ahoose one of the fo""owing

- geographic dispersionE- in&o"&ement of different types of participantsE- feedbac processE- use of staff to faci"itate data ana"ysisE- %uestionnaire administration.


4/19

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5/19


6/19

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7ue$tion


7/19

(?)

During what month(s) shou"d these o&ertime units be produced to minimiGe costs ustify brief"yyour answer. (2 mar s)

(c) $ssuming that it costs L!@ to produce one unit in o&ertime+ and that hiring costs amount to L25@ per emp"oyee+ whi"e the cost of firing an emp"oyee is L5@@+ find the fo""owing ,reference

hresho"ds: (/ mar s)

(i) 4d"e time &ersus firing and hiring: how "ong can an emp"oyee remain id"e before it becomesmore ad&antageous to fire him (her)+ and then hire another emp"oyee "ater+ when needed

(ii) bui"ding in&entory &ersus firing and hiring: how "ong can an emp"oyee be ept bui"dingin&entory before it becomes more ad&antageous to fire him (her)+ and then hire another emp"oyee "ater+ when needed

(ii) o&ertime &ersus hiring and firing: how many units can the company bui"d on o&ertime before it becomes more ad&antageous to hire an emp"oyee+ and the fire him (her) when no"onger needed

(iii) bac "ogs &ersus o&ertime: is it more ad&antageous to bui"d an unit in o&ertime+ or to bac "og that unit for one month

7ueation =: Tran$portation (= mar'$)

ri-*i e is a fami"y-based company specia"iGed in the assemb"y of tricyc"es for senior citiGens. oe De"do+the o"dest son and manager of the company+ is in receipt of the forecast demand for the next three months(No&ember+ December and anuary): 55@ units+ 1+@@@ units and 5@ units+ respecti&e"y. he a&erage timere%uired to assemb"e a tricyc"e is 5 hours.

he company emp"oys #@ emp"oyees who each wor 1@@ hours per month for a sa"ary of L1@ hour. heemp"oyees are therefore paid at a rate of L1+@@@ per month+ regard"ess of the number of tricyc"es

manufactured. oe may a"so opt for o&ertime at a cost of L15 hr and or subcontracting at a cost of L!@ unit. *ac "ogs are accepted but cost L1@ per month per unit. torage costs are L2 per month per unit.

$t the beginning of No&ember+ oe De"do had an in&entory of 1@@ tricyc"es and he prefers to ha&e the samenumber of tricyc"es at the end of anuary in order to p"an against future f"uctuations in demand.

9imits on subcontracting are: No&ember 5@ units+ December @ units+ and anuary


8/19

(;)

7ue$tion >: Tran$portation (= mar'$)

(a) Ising the ransportation ab"e be"ow+ find an optima" $ggregate ,"an using t%e intuiti,elo e$t *o$t approa*% . D# N#T E- ITE T2E 5 #D!"TI#N 5@AN: AS#@!TI#N IN T2E TA @EA! IS S!88I"IENT . (1 mar )

(b) Hi&en the data of this prob"em and based on your so"ution to part (a)+ answer the fo""owing%uestions: (' mar s)

(i) What is the tota" cost of your so"ution

(ii) What is the ho"ding cost per unit per month

(iii) What is the in&entory "e&e" at the end of month 1

(i&) What is the in&entory "e&e" at the end of month 2


9/19

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1 2 # ' 8xcess Aap. Aapacity

*eginning @ 2 ' @

4n&entory 1@@

3onth 1 @ 2 ' @

(Pegu"ar) 5@@

3onth 1 /@ /2 /' / @

(Q&ertime) 5@

3onth 1 !@ !2 !' ! @

( ub Aont.) 12@

3onth 2 @ 2 ' @

(Pegu"ar) 5@@3onth 2 /@ /2 /' @

(Q&ertime) 5@

3onth 2 !@ !2 !' @

( ub Aont.) 12@

3onth # @ 2 @

(Pegu"ar) 5@@

3onth # /@ /2 @

(Q&ertime) 5@3onth # !@ !2 @

( ub Aont.) 1@@

3onth ' @ @

(Pegu"ar) 5@@

3onth ' /@ @

(Q&ertime) 5@

3onth ' !@ @

( ub Aont.) 1@@Demand 55@


10/19

(10)

ADM 3301

Sample Mid-term ExamSolution$

7ue$tion 1: 8ore*a$tin9

8ach 7riday+ mith 3achine ,arts ( 3,) 9 D has to forecast the next wee s demand for brac ets ;#512. #

*rac et ;#5! ("inear regression):Wee ; Demand 7orecast 8rror

12#'5

15152'#12

/.2/12.


11/19

(11)

7ue$tion 6: 8ore*a$tin9

(a) Bapem 8"ectrica" has ca"cu"ated forecast errors to chec on the accuracy of a particu"ar set of demand forecasts. he errors were consistent"y positi&e. Cow do you interpret this fact in terms of comparing the actua" demand with the forecast demand

T%e 8ore*a$t$ are $+$temati*all+ lo er t%an t%e a*tual demand

(b) 8nro""ment in a particu"ar c"ass for the "ast four semesters has been 12@+ 12 + 11@ and 1#@.uppose a one-semester mo&ing a&erage is used to forecast enro""ment (this is sometimes referred

to as a nai&e forecast). hus+ the forecast for the second semester wou"d be 12@+ the forecast for the third semester wou"d be 12 + and the forecast for the fourth semester wou"d be 11@. Whatwou"d the 3$D be for this situation

8nro""ment 7orecast Error A&$olute Error

12@ - - - 12 12@ > > 11@ 12 -1> 1> 1#@ 11@ 60 60

MAD (> B 1> B 60) C 3 11.>=;;1> C 1> >>.3=3>?> $o ;.1= and 6 1>.3.

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15

All error$ all &et een t%e *ontrol limit$ and t%e error$ loo' random.

7ue$tion


14/19

(10

610610610

60--

--

=0

=0 unit$ $%ould &e produ*ed in #T durin9 mont% 3.

(c) $ssuming that it costs L!@ to produce one unit in o&ertime+ and that hiring costs amount to L25@ per emp"oyee+ whi"e the cost of firing an emp"oyee is L5@@+ find the fo""owing ,referencehresho"ds: (/ mar s)

(i) 4d"e time &ersus firing and hiring: how "ong can an emp"oyee remain id"e before it becomesmore ad&antageous to fire him (her)+ and then hire another emp"oyee "ater+ when needed

"o$t o irin9 and %irin9 =00 B 6=0 ?=0*o$t o idle time >0 10 >00 per mont%.


15/19

(1=)

It i$ more ad,anta9eou$ to ire and %ire i an emplo+ee %a$ to remain idle more t%an?=0 C >00 1.6= mont%$.

(iii) bui"ding in&entory &ersus firing and hiring: how "ong can an emp"oyee be ept bui"dingin&entory before it becomes more ad&antageous to fire him (her)+ and then hire another emp"oyee "ater+ when needed

"o$t o irin9 and %irin9 =00 B 6=0 ?=0"o$t o &uildin9 in,entor+ = per unit =0 per mont%F$ produ*tion.

G mont%$ In,. "o$t "o$t o 2C81 =0 ?=06 1=0 ?=03 300 ?=0< =00 ?=0= ?=0 ?=0

It i$ &etter to ire and %ire i an emplo+ee %a$ to &e 'ept &uildin9 in,entor+ or moret%an = mont%$

(i&) o&ertime &ersus hiring and firing: how many units can the company bui"d on o&ertime before it becomes more ad&antageous to hire an emp"oyee+ and the fire him (her) when no"onger needed

"o$t o %irin9 and irin9 6=0 B =00 ?=0*o$t o o,ertime 30 per unit on top o re9ular produ*tion *o$t.It i$ more ad,anta9eou$ to %ire and ire more t%an ?=0 C 30 6= unit$ %a,e to &e &uilton o,ertime.

(&) bac "ogs &ersus o&ertime: is it more ad&antageous to bui"d an unit in o&ertime+ or to bac "og that unit for one month

"o$t o &a*'lo9$ 10 per unit on top o re9ular produ*tion *o$t*o$t o o,ertime 30 per unit on top o re9ular produ*tion *o$t.

a*'lo9$ are *%eaper.


16/19

(1>)

7ue$tion =: Tran$portation

ri-*i e is a fami"y-based company specia"iGed in the assemb"y of tricyc"es for senior citiGens. oe De"do+the o"dest son and manager of the company+ is in receipt of the forecast demand for the next three months(No&ember+ December and anuary): 55@ units+ 1+@@@ units and 5@ units+ respecti&e"y. he a&erage timere%uired to assemb"e a tricyc"e is 5 hours.

he company emp"oys #@ emp"oyees who each wor 1@@ hours per month for a sa"ary of L1@ hour. heemp"oyees are therefore paid at a rate of L1+@@@ per month+ regard"ess of the number of tricyc"esmanufactured. oe may a"so opt for o&ertime at a cost of L15 hr and or subcontracting at a cost of L!@ unit. *ac "ogs are accepted but cost L1@ per month per unit. torage costs are L2 per month per unit.

$t the beginning of No&ember+ oe De"do had an in&entory of 1@@ tricyc"es and he prefers to ha&e the samenumber of tricyc"es at the end of anuary in order to p"an against future f"uctuations in demand.

9imits on subcontracting are: No&ember 5@ units+ December @ units+ and anuary


17/19

(1?)

Mont% 1 Mont% 6 Mont% 3 End In,. Ex*e$$ "apa*it+

e9. 0 6 < > 100

In,.T 0 6 < > >00

Mont% 1

#T ?= ?? ? ;1 0

Mont% 1

Su& ". 0 6 < > =0

Mont% 1

T 10 0 6 < >00

Mont% 6

#T ;= ?= ?? ? 0

Mont% 6

Su& ". 100 0 6 < >0

Mont% 6

T 60 10 0 6 >00

Mont% 3

#T = ;= ?= ?? 0

Mont% 3

Su& ". 110 100 0 6 ?0

Mont% 3

Demand ==0 1 000 >=0 100 =0 6 3=0


18/19

(1;)

7ue$tion >: Tran$portation

(a) Ising the ransportation ab"e be"ow+ find an optima" $ggregate ,"an using t%e intuiti,elo e$t *o$t approa*% . D# N#T E- ITE T2E 5 #D!"TI#N 5@AN: AS#@!TI#N IN T2E TA @EA! IS S!88I"IENT .

(b) Hi&en the data of this prob"em and based on your so"ution to part (a)+ answer the fo""owing%uestions:

(i) What is the tota" cost of your so"ution

1>? >0

(ii) What is the ho"ding cost per unit per month

6

(iii) What is the in&entory "e&e" at the end of month 1

130 unit$

(i&) What is the in&entory "e&e" at the end of month 2

100 unit$


19/19

(1 )

1 2 # ' 8xcess Aap. Aapacity

*eginning @ 2 ' @

4n&entory 100 1@@

3onth 1 @ 2 ' @

(Pegu"ar)

midterm sample adm 3301

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