middle east and north africa the military implications sir tim garden
TRANSCRIPT
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Middle East and North AfricaMiddle East and North Africa
The Military Implications
Sir Tim Garden
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IssuesIssues
• Causes of Conflict in MENA• Threats from Region• Our Capabilities• Lessons from the Recent Past• What next?• What force posture is needed?
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The Causes of ConflictThe Causes of Conflict
• State to State• Borders• Resources• Ethnic• Arms including WMD• Power ambitions• Alliances
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The Causes of ConflictThe Causes of Conflict
• Non State Actors• Internal terrorism• External terrorism• Religious groups• Crime• Corruption
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Risks in the MENA RegionRisks in the MENA Region
• Post Conflict Iraq• Al Qaeda • Israel-Palestine - Syria - Jordan• Iran Nuclear programme• Saudi Arabia & Egypt Stability• North Africa
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What are the Threats to Us?What are the Threats to Us?
• International Terrorism• Weapons of Mass Destruction• Threats to Regional Allies• International Crime• Breaches of International System
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Who are we?Who are we?
• United Nations SC• USA + coalitions• NATO• EU• Quartet (EU UN US Russia)• Inner EU core (UK France Germany)
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Lessons LearnedLessons Learned
• Gulf War 1 and 2• Afghanistan• Balkan experience• Post Conflict operations
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What Capabilities?What Capabilities?
• Expeditionary offensive warfare• Sustainability post conflict• Intelligence• Conflict prevention
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Where next?Where next?
• NATO in Afghanistan• Iraq• Israel-Palestine peacekeeping?• Iran and WMD• US action on Syria?• Algeria, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Libya?
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Military RequirementsMilitary Requirements
• Rapid Deployment• Sustainability• Intelligence• Experience• Alliance operations
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Strategic QuestionsStrategic Questions
• High tech weapons?• Conflict Prevention?• Oil dependence?• Islamic democracy?• Future alliances?• Endless war on terrorism?
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