MICHIGAN STATEWIDE GENERAL ELECTION ?· MICHIGAN STATEWIDE GENERAL ELECTION SURVEY MAY 27, ... voters…

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  • Michigan Statewide Survey

    May 2016

    Glengariff Group, Inc.

    1

    MICHIGAN STATEWIDE GENERAL ELECTION SURVEY

    MAY 27, 2016

    600 SAMPLE LIKELY GENERAL ELECTION VOTERS

  • Michigan Statewide Survey

    May 2016

    Glengariff Group, Inc.

    2

    TABLE OF CONTENTS

    Page Topic

    2 Methodology

    3 Key Findings

    12 Aggregate Survey Results

    22 Cross-tabulation Report

    METHODOLOGY

    The Glengariff Group, Inc. conducted a 600-sample, live operator telephone survey of likely November 2016 Michigan general

    election voters. The survey was conducted from May 24-26, 2016 and has margin of error of +/-4.0% with a 95% level of confidence.

    67% of respondents were interviewed by landline telephone. 33% of respondents were interviewed by cell phone telephone. This

    survey was conducted on behalf of the Detroit News and WDIV Local 4.

  • Michigan Statewide Survey

    May 2016

    Glengariff Group, Inc.

    3

    KEY FINDINGS

    Michigan Voters Most Optimistic About Detroit

    By a margin of 23.8%-62.3%, Michigan voters believe the nation is on the wrong track.

    By a margin of 34.3%-51.3%, voters believe Michigan is on the wrong track.

    o Strong Republican voters believe Michigan is on the right track by a margin of 49.6%-35.3%. But Strong Democratic voters believe Michigan is on the wrong track by a margin of 27.1%-64.1%. Independent voters believe Michigan is on

    the wrong track by a margin of 27.3%-53.8%.

    But by a margin of 39.7%-37.2%, Michigan voters believe Detroit is on the RIGHT track 22.5% just do not know.

    o There is a significant difference in how Southeast Michigan voters view Detroit versus how out-state voters view Detroit. Southeast Michigan voters are strongly bullish on the direction of Detroit as compared to Out-State voters

    who believe Detroit is on the wrong track.

    Out State Voters Right Wrong Metro Detroit Voters Right Wrong

    UP/North 26.9%-32.1% Oakland 57.5%-31.3%

    West 25.0%-38.2% Macomb 52.0%-38.0%

    Southwest 26.0%-40.0% Wayne 51.4%-34.3%

    Mid 25.0%-50.0% Detroit 61.5%-35.9%

    East Central 19.6%-43.5% Det Outer Ring 49.3%-35.8%

  • Michigan Statewide Survey

    May 2016

    Glengariff Group, Inc.

    4

    Economy, Flint, and Education Lead Voters Concerns

    Voters were asked what they thought the most important issue was facing Michigan right now. (Voters were not provided options but were asked in an open ended question.)

    o 27.0% of voters said the economy and jobs were Michigans most pressing issue. o 16.2% of voters said the Flint water issue was the states most pressing issue. o 13.8% of voters said education funding or education quality were the states most pressing issue.

    Obama Popularity Now At 50%

    By a margin of 50.0%-40.2%, Michigan voters have a favorable impression of President Barack Obama his highest favorable rating since early in his first term.

    o Barack Obama has a favorable rating of 44.1%-39.2% among Independent voters. o Men are split in their view with 45.8% favorable and 46.2% unfavorable. But women have a strong favorable opinion

    at 53.8% favorable to 34.6% unfavorable.

    Snyder Approval Plummets Driven By Losses Among Independent Voters

    By a margin of 33.2%-49.2%, Michigan voters have an unfavorable opinion of Rick Snyder.

    o Independent voters view Rick Snyder unfavorably by a margin of 31.5%-47.6%. o Strong Republican voters view Rick Snyder favorably by a margin of 67.7%-17.3% -- nearly one in five Strong

    Republican voters have an unfavorable view of the Republican Governor.

    o Strong Democratic voters view the Governor unfavorably by a margin of 11.5%-72.9%.

  • Michigan Statewide Survey

    May 2016

    Glengariff Group, Inc.

    5

    By margin of 39.6%-52.4%, Michigan voters disapprove of the job being done by Rick Snyder as Governor.

    o What is most important in these numbers is the INTENSITY of opposition to Governor Snyder: 9.3% Strongly Approve of his performance. 30.3% Somewhat Approve of his performance. 18.2% Somewhat Disapprove of his performance. But 33.2% STRONGLY DISAPPROVE of his performance.

    o By a margin of 37.1%-53.2%, Independent voters disapprove of the Governors performance. 35.0% of Independent voters now strongly disapprove.

    o By comparison, only 26.3% of Strong Republican voters strongly approve of the Governors Performance.

    Clinton, Trump Equally Unpopular; Sanders Most Popular

    Republican nominee Donald Trump enters the General Election campaign with only 27.3% of voters viewing him favorably. 59.5% of Michigan voters have an unfavorable opinion of Donald Trump.

    Party Favorable Unfavorable

    Strong Dem 4.7% 88.5%

    Lean Dem 10.0% 84.0%

    Independent 32.2% 51.0%

    Lean GOP 47.5% 39.3%

    Strong GOP 53.4% 29.3%

    o Donald Trump is view unfavorably by Independent voters by a margin of 32.2%-51.0%. But Leaning Republican voters view him favorably by a margin of only 47.5%-39.3%, and Strong Republican voters view him favorably by a

    margin of 53.4%-29.3%. Three in ten base Republican voters have an unfavorable impression of Donald Trump.

    o 63.1% of female voters have an unfavorable impression of Donald Trump as compared to 55.6% of male voters. o 88.3% of African American voters have an unfavorable impression of Donald Trump.

  • Michigan Statewide Survey

    May 2016

    Glengariff Group, Inc.

    6

    Hillary Clinton is viewed unfavorably by voters by a margin of 30.5% (favorable) to 57.2% (unfavorable). Statistically similar with Donald Trumps negative ratings.

    Party Favorable Unfavorable

    Strong Dem 65.1% 20.3%

    Lean Dem 40.0% 40.0%

    Independent 17.5% 69.2%

    Lean GOP 8.2% 86.9%

    Strong GOP 3.0% 93.2%

    o Hillary Clinton has a stronger favorable rating with her base than Donald Trump has with his Republican base. However, Hillary Clinton has considerably more work to do with Leaning Democratic voters than Donald Trump has

    with Leaning Republican voters.

    o At 17.5%-69.2%, Hillary Clinton is sharply more unpopular with Independent voters than Donald Trump.

    Bernie Sanders is the only Presidential candidate viewed favorably by voters by a narrow margin of 42.8%-41.0%.

    Party Favorable Unfavorable

    Strong Dem 72.9% 16.1%

    Lean Dem 60.0% 24.0%

    Independent 35.7% 41.3%

    Lean GOP 21.3% 68.9%

    Strong GOP 12.8% 75.2%

    o Bernie Sanders is viewed considerably more favorably than Hillary Clinton among voters that Lean Democratic or Independent.

  • Michigan Statewide Survey

    May 2016

    Glengariff Group, Inc.

    7

    Clinton Leads Trump by 4.5% -- Major Gender Split

    Hillary Clinton holds a lead of 43.0%-38.5% over Republican nominee Donald Trump. 4.0% of voters say they will vote for another candidate. And 11.8% of voters are undecided. (By way of comparison, Barack Obama held a 5.5% lead over Mitt

    Romney in May 2012.)

    Party Clinton Trump Other Undecided

    Strong Dem 84.9% 5.8% 4.2% 4.7%

    Lean Dem 62.0% 16.0% 8.0% 12.0%

    Independent 28.7% 37.8% 4.9% 23.8%

    Lean GOP 11.4% 70.5% 4.9% 11.5%

    Strong GOP 6.0% 81.2% 0.0% 9.0%

    Hillary Clinton leads 45.8%-30.1% among female voters a lead of 15.7%. Donald Trump leads 47.6%-37.9% among male voters a Trump lead of 9.7%.

    Clinton leads 90.9%-5.2% among African American voters. Trump leads 43.0%-35.0% among Caucasian voters.

    Sanders Leads Trump by 18.7% -- Sanders Reaches Above 50%.

    Bernie Sanders leads Donald Trump by a margin of 51.7%-33.0% -- a whopping 18.7% margin.

    Party Sanders Trump Other Dont Know

    Strong Dem 90.7% 3.6% 0.5% 4.7%

    Lean Dem 76.0% 8.0% 0.0% 16.0%

    Independent 44.8% 30.1% 1.4% 21.0%

    Lean GOP 19.7% 62.3% 4.9% 9.8%

    Strong GOP 12.8% 76.0% 0.0% 9.8%

  • Michigan Statewide Survey

    May 2016

    Glengariff Group, Inc.

    8

    Sanders leads among Independent voters by a 15-point margin.

    Sanders pulls nearly one in five leaning Republican voters, and 13% of strong Republican voters.

    Sanders leads Trump among women by a margin of 54.5%-24.9% -- a nearly 30-point margin. But Sanders also leads Trump among men by a margin of 48.6%-40.6% -- an 8-point margin.

    Libertarian Candidate Receives More than 11% of Vote

    In a three-way match up, Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by a margin of 36.8%-32.7% -- a margin of 4.1%. Libertarian Candidate Gary Johnson takes 11.5% of the vote.

    Party Clinton Trump Johnson

    Strong Dem 78.7% 3.6% 7.3%

    Lean Dem 54.0% 6.0% 18.0%

    Independent 18.9% 32.2% 18.2%

    Lean GOP 9.8% 59.0% 12.5%

    Strong GOP 1.5% 74.5% 9.1%

    The introduction of a third party Libertarian candidate takes equally from both Clinton and Trump.

    Gary Johnson wins 17.4% of voters under 30 and 21.3% of voters aged 39-39.

  • Michigan Statewide Survey

    May 2016

    Glengariff Group, Inc.

    9

    Voters Lack of Enthusiasm Will Present Major Challenges to Both Sides

    Voters were asked on a scale of one to ten how excited they were to cast a ballot in this years November election. At 5.7, voters are showing little enthusiasm at this point in casting a ballot. By comparison, voter enthusiasm in August 2012 for the

    last presidential election was

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