Michelle ColleyUK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP)

www.ukcip.org.uk

Handling climate risks and uncertainties in decision-making

Climate Impacts Forecasting for Slopes (CLIFFS) Launch meeting26 October 2005

What is UKCIP?

• The UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) helps organisations assess how they might be affected by climate change, so they can prepare for its impacts

• Set up 1997; funded by Defra

• Programme of the Environmental Change Institute, Oxford University Centre for the Environment

• Stakeholder-led research using:– Common tools & experience– Intelligent access to datasets– Guidance & support for studies & partnerships– Web access to all tools

UKCIP tools

• Range of greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, climate models & scenarios – unknown probabilities

• Natural climate variability too• Uncertainty about impacts these climate

changes will have on any system• Uncertainty about whether adaptation

measures will work

• How can decisions be made?

Handling climate risks and uncertainties in decision-making

• Framework describes process for appraisal and management of risks and uncertainties

• Similar to others used for corporate risk management – recognisable to decision-makers

• Bringing ‘climate adaptation’ and ‘risk management’ worlds together

• Enables climate risks to be ‘mainstreamed’ within existing processes

UKCIP/EA decision-making framework

Take a balanced approach to managing climate and non-climate risks

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Define what makes the correct decision

• Need operational criteria for risk assessment and options appraisal

• Take account of defined thresholds and risk attitude (optimistic, precautionary/risk averse, least regret)

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(Based on Hewitt & Burton (1971); Smit et al (2000); Jones (2001))

Give appropriate attention to all sources of uncertainty

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• Information on low probability / high consequence events may be most uncertain – but risk assessment may show these are highest risk

• Identify important climate risk factors – priorities for adaptation

• Uncertainty in non-climate risks and impact models may be of equal or greater significance than uncertainties over present or future climate hazards

• Thresholds-based approach may help focus attention on critical uncertainties

Use adaptive managementto cope with uncertainty

• Put in place incremental adaptation options, rather than undertaking large-scale adaptation in one fell swoop

• Keep open / increase options that allow climate adaptation in future, when need for adaptation and performance of different measures is less uncertain

• E.g. Flood management: It may be sensible to allow for future increases in defence height, while not building to a higher standard immediately

• Circular, iterative framework promotes

adaptive management

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Try to find no- or low-regretadaptation options

• ‘No regret’: deliver benefits that exceed their costs, whatever the extent of climate change

• E.g. If already experiencing weather-related problems, carry out cost-effective actions to deal with them

• ‘Low regret’: low cost, potentially large benefits under climate change

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• E.g. Building climate change in at the design stage for new drainage system – make pipes wider

Try to find win-win options

• ‘Win-win’ options contribute to climate adaptation and also to other objectives

• E.g. Creation of salt-marsh habitat provides flood protection for coastal areas and also contributes to nature conservation objectives

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Avoid actions that will make it more difficult to cope with climate risks

• Adaptation-constraining decisions make it more difficult for you, or others to manage future climate risks

• E.g. Inappropriate development in a flood risk area

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www.ukcip.org.uk