michael j. quillen chairman, alpha natural resources

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1 1 Michael J. Quillen Chairman, Alpha Natural Resources Eastern Coal Council May 24, 2010

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P urpose and promise: Coal’s irreplaceable role in the energy mix. Michael J. Quillen Chairman, Alpha Natural Resources. Eastern Coal Council May 24, 2010. 1. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Michael J. Quillen Chairman, Alpha Natural Resources

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Michael J. QuillenChairman, Alpha Natural Resources

Eastern Coal CouncilMay 24, 2010

Page 2: Michael J. Quillen Chairman, Alpha Natural Resources

04/20/23NAME OF PRESENTATION 2

Statements in this presentation which are not statements of historical fact are “forward-looking

statements” within the Safe Harbor provision of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of

1995. Such statements are not guarantees of future performance. Many factors could cause our

actual results, performance or achievements, or industry results, to be materially different from any

future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward looking-

statements. These factors are discussed in detail in our Annual Report on Form 10-K, Quarterly

Reports on Form 10-Q and in our other filings with the SEC. We make forward-looking statements

based on currently available information, and we assume no obligation to update the statements

made today or contained in our Annual Report or other filings due to changes in underlying factors,

new information, future developments, or otherwise, except as required by law.

Page 3: Michael J. Quillen Chairman, Alpha Natural Resources

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10.0 10.0 11.0 11.9

Metallurgical coal Thermal coal

In the 7 years since it was formed, Alpha has grown to become America’s #3 coal supplier 2.3 billion tons of reserves in four major basins combined 2008 revenues: >$4.2 billion more than 60 mines market capitalization ~$4.7 billion the leading U.S. supplier of metallurgical coal to the world’s steel industry

8.1

Alpha Coal Sales (millions of tons)

* Represents midpoint levels of published company guidance on May 5, 2010

Northern AppalachiaNorthern Appalachia

Central AppalachiaCentral AppalachiaIllinois BasinIllinois Basin

Powder River BasinPowder River Basin

Page 4: Michael J. Quillen Chairman, Alpha Natural Resources

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The U.S. Perspective

Page 5: Michael J. Quillen Chairman, Alpha Natural Resources

5SOURCE: U.S. Energy Information Administration

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030

Recessionary PeriodsRecessionary Periods

Net Generation Projected Demand

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030

Just 15% more oil is used in America than at the time of the 1973 energy crisis…but 115% more electricity

U.S. Electricity Net Generation and Projected Demand (kWh in billions)

Page 6: Michael J. Quillen Chairman, Alpha Natural Resources

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Reference High growth Low growth

SOURCE: U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2009 Annual Energy Outlook

Renewables

Nuclear

Natural Gas

Coal

Petroleum

U.S. Electricity Generation by Fuel Type (kWh in billions)

Coal is the predominant fuel for future electricity generation - even in a low-growth scenario

Page 7: Michael J. Quillen Chairman, Alpha Natural Resources

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Reference Scenario

450ppm Scenario

Non-OECD

OECD +

Change in Coal Production, 450ppm CO2 Scenario by 2030 (in millions of tons of coal equivalent)

U.S. remains #2 coal producer after China - even in a world with capped CO2

SOURCE: International Energy Agency

Page 8: Michael J. Quillen Chairman, Alpha Natural Resources

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William Howard Taft was president the last time total U.S. carbon dioxide emissions were as low as specified by the America Power Act (Kerry-Lieberman).

Per capita, a projected 420 million Americans living in 2050 would be held to same overall emissions as 40 million Americans emitted in 1875.

SOURCE: Steven Hayward, American Enterprise Institute

Page 9: Michael J. Quillen Chairman, Alpha Natural Resources

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Kentucky is nation’s3rd largest auto manufacturer

“Kentucky’s industrial development has occurred because we have relatively low electricity rates based on coal-fired generation.” - Gov. Steven L. Beshear

5.8¢/kWh94% coal

Kentucky produces 40%of nation’saluminum

SOURCE: Commonwealth of Kentucky, Office of the Governor

Page 10: Michael J. Quillen Chairman, Alpha Natural Resources

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5.8¢/kWh94% coal

Cape Wind – the nation’s first offshore wind farm – was awarded 15-year purchasing contract in Aprilfrom a utility, by which it will pay 20.7¢ / kWh (including a mandated state subsidy of 6.1¢ / kWh) for half the wind farm’s power. Cost will escalate 3.5% each yearover the life of the contract.

20.7¢/kWh100% wind

Page 11: Michael J. Quillen Chairman, Alpha Natural Resources

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SOURCE: U.S. Energy Information Administration

U.S. Federal Subsidies by Resource – 2007 (by MWh produced)

Page 12: Michael J. Quillen Chairman, Alpha Natural Resources

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“On an average day, the energy output of

(Alliance Coal’s) Cardinal mine is nearly equal,

in raw terms, to the daily output of all the solar

panels and wind turbines in the United States.”

- Robert Bryce, “Power Hungry: The Myths of ‘Green’ Energy and the Real Fuels of the Future”

Page 13: Michael J. Quillen Chairman, Alpha Natural Resources

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NIMBY

SOURCE: U.S. Chamber of Commerce

Page 14: Michael J. Quillen Chairman, Alpha Natural Resources

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SOURCE: Black & Veatch, 4th Annual Strategic Directions in the Electric Utility Industry Survey, 02/18/10

Utilities agree on the future of coal when economics are fully considered

Does coalDoes coalhave a have a future?future?

Page 15: Michael J. Quillen Chairman, Alpha Natural Resources

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The Global Perspective

Page 16: Michael J. Quillen Chairman, Alpha Natural Resources

16SOURCE: International Energy Administration

Latin America

34 million

Latin America

34 million Sub-SaharanAfrica

587 million

Sub-SaharanAfrica

587 million

China &East Asia

195 million

China &East Asia

195 million

NorthAfrica

1.7 million

NorthAfrica

1.7 million

South Asia614 million

South Asia614 million

Middle East21 million

Middle East21 million

1.5 billion people — 22% of the world’s population — have no access to electricity

Page 17: Michael J. Quillen Chairman, Alpha Natural Resources

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World’s largest populations lag far behind U.S. in per-capita power consumption

U.S.

China

Brazil

Indonesia

Pakistan

India

Per-capita power consumption – world’s most populous nations (in watts)

SOURCE: “Power Hungry: The Myths of ‘Green Energy’ and the Real Fuels of the Future”, Robert Bryce

167 watts per capita

170 watts per capita

233 watts per capita

516 watts per capita

673 watts per capita

3,366 watts per capita

= 100 watts

Page 18: Michael J. Quillen Chairman, Alpha Natural Resources

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New Generation Capacity Under Construction – 2008 (in gigawatts)

SOURCE: Platts World Electric Power Plants Database, December 2008

51719

51112 12

Other

Europe

U.S.

Other

India

China

8 out of 10 new gigawatts of power plant construction underway in 2008 was coal fired

Page 19: Michael J. Quillen Chairman, Alpha Natural Resources

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China 2010E

80% coal-fired80% coal-fired

China 2030E

77% coal-fired77% coal-fired

India 2010E

66% coal-fired66% coal-fired

India 2030E

69% coal-fired69% coal-fired

SOURCE: International Energy Agency

1,966

892544

36990

2015 203020001980 2007

India Electricity Demand – Historic & Projected (in TWh)

China Electricity Demand – Historic & Projected (in TWh)

CAGR5.7%

CAGR

4.5%7,513

4,723

2,717

1,081259

2000 2007 2015 20301980

Page 20: Michael J. Quillen Chairman, Alpha Natural Resources

2020

Page 21: Michael J. Quillen Chairman, Alpha Natural Resources

21SOURCE: American Enterprise Institute

U.S. Energy Consumption per Real Dollar of GDP Total U.S. Energy Consumption

2009 marked an all-time low for amount of energy required to produce a real dollar of GDP

Page 22: Michael J. Quillen Chairman, Alpha Natural Resources

22SOURCE: American Enterprise Institute

U.S. Energy Consumption, GHG Emissions & CO2 Emissions, per Real Dollar of GDP

Page 23: Michael J. Quillen Chairman, Alpha Natural Resources

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1. We mine coal the hard way - with shovels and pick axes

2. We no longer need coal – we have green energy now

3. Mining devastates communities, water and land

4. Mining sustains poverty in Appalachia

5. Miners have no choice but to work in the mines

Page 24: Michael J. Quillen Chairman, Alpha Natural Resources

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