mh370 and the bayes theory

8/12/2019 MH370 and The Bayes Theory

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the

flight mh370& bayes theoryMasilamani Ramasamy

- a scientific management expert([email protected])

Masilamani RamasamyConsultant Trainer


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MH370 tracking


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Bayes' Theorem

also called, Bayes' lawor Bayes' rule based on probability theory,

mathematics and Statistics

named after Thomas Bayes(/bez/17011761)

Bayes suggested the theorem toupdate beliefs

Significantly edited and updated byRichard Price

Bayes' theorem is to the theory ofprobability what Pythagoras'stheoremis to geometry-HaroldJeffreys
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Bayeshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Help:IPA_for_Englishhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Help:IPA_for_Englishhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Help:IPA_for_Englishhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Pricehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Pricehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pythagorean_theoremhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pythagorean_theoremhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pythagorean_theoremhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pythagorean_theoremhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pythagorean_theoremhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pythagorean_theoremhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Pricehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Help:IPA_for_Englishhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Help:IPA_for_Englishhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Help:IPA_for_Englishhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Help:IPA_for_Englishhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Bayes


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probability theory

rooted in,

the science ofStatistics

the science ofMathematics

the probability of anevent occurring

the analysis ofrandom phenomena


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statistical theory

gives, ways of comparing

statisticalprocedures

a best possibleprocedure forstatistical problems

guidance on thechoice betweenalternative

procedures

Passenger Identities Number

China/Taiwan 154

Malaysia 38

India 5

Indonesia 7

Australia 6

France 4

USA 3

New Zealand 2

Canada 2

Russia 1

Italy 1

Netherlands 1

Austria 1


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statistical theory

covers

Statistical decisionmethods and problems

Statistical inferences orconclusions

actions and deductions

To satisfy the basic principlesstated for these differentapproaches.

STATISTICS(FACTS)

Aircraft: Malaysian Air Lines

Aircraft Age: 11years 10

months

Aircraft Type: Boeing 777 ERFlight No: MH370(shared with

China Southern Airlines)

Passengers travelled: 227

Crew Travelled: 12

Nationalities: 14Take Off Time: 12.41 am

From: Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

To: Beijing, China


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Statistics

is the study of thecollection, organization,analysis, interpretation and

presentation of informationor data

all aspects of data includingthe planning of data

collection in terms of thedesign of surveys andexperiments are used


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mathematical roots

Two mathematical results of Bayes Theorem

are,

THE LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS, and

THE CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM


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law of large numbers(LLN)

Is a theorem

describes the result ofperforming the same

experiment a largenumber of times

thus the average of resultsobtained should be close

to the expected value, and The result will tend to

become closer to reality


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central limit theorem(CLT)

the arithmetic mean of asufficiently large number ofiterates of independent

random variables, each with awell-defined expected valueand well-defined variance,will be approximately

normally distributed This will probably lead to a

conclusion of the reality


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normal distribution

suppose sample contains a large number of

observations,

each observation being randomlygenerated,

in a way that does not depend on the

values of the other observations that the arithmetic average of the

observed values is computed,

and if this procedure is performedmany times,

then central limit theorem says the

computed values of the average will bea normal distribution

The normal distribution is commonlyknown as a "bell curve"


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Bayes' theorem

is,

a result that is of importancein the mathematical

manipulation of conditionalprobabilities

It is a result that derives fromthe more basic axioms of

probability It is a result that can lead to

realistic conclusions


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Bayesian (or epistemological)

interpretation probability measures a degree of belief

Bayes' theorem then links the degree ofbelief

in a proposition before and after

accounting for evidence. example, take a proposal that a biased

coin is twice as likely to land heads than tails.

Degree of belief in this might initially be50%.

The coin is then flipped a number oftimes to collect evidence.

Belief may rise to 70% if the evidencesupports the proposition


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axioms of probability

probability is,

a game of chance

measures the real, physical tendency of

something to occur

Measures how strongly one believes it will occur

draws on both these elements?

interprets the probability values of probability

theory to answer the above questions


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real life probabilityEvent Or Occurrence Non-Random event Random Event

Weather Seasonal Change, Local

Climate

Precipitation, Temperature on

Specific Days

Car Accidents Safe or Unsafe Driving

Practices

Specific Cars or Conditions

Met on the Road

Customers at Mall Hours Open, Time of the Day Specific Pattern of CustomerArrival

State Lottery Decision About Games

Available, Prices and Awards

Numbers Drawn or Winning

Patterns on Tickets

Plane Crash Ability of Flight Captains,

Security Measures

Plane Engine Failure,

Terrorists Intrusion

Student Grades Amount of Time of study,

Revision and Class

Preparation

Appearance of Specific

questions on Tests


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the search


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why MH370 flight missing?

Its loss is a mystery

Many theories, probabilitiesand interpretations stillremain

Inconclusive, inadequateand intriguing

Probably Bayes Theoreticalapproach would help

Scientists tend to believe inthis theory as a probablelead to discovery of themissing plane


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the theory that would not die

Its a very short,simple equation thatsays you can start out

with hypothesisabout something -and it doesnt matterhow good thehypothesis is,

- Sharon Bertsch McGrayne


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how

because of,

this character of the

formula

forcing researchers to

change their hypothesis

with each new information

that the probability

becomes more accurate


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the proof Bayes Theorem allows the

organisation of available data withassociated uncertainties andcomputation of the PDF

Scientists applied Bayes Theorem inthe Air France incident of 2009

French scientist Pierre Simon Laplace,helped locate German U-boats duringWorld War II and spot Sovietsubmarines during the Cold War

More recently, it is used in Google's"driverless cars" project and in stockmarket predictions

PDF or the probability distributionfunction, identified the targetlocation given these data"


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Why Not?

Advocates of this theory said itwas also used in the search for theblack box of the ill-fated Air Franceflight 447, which crashed in thevast Atlantic Ocean in June 2009

What took two years for otherexperts in the search for the blackbox, took only five days forconsultants who applied the BayesTheorem, to finally find the device12,000 feet under water.

In the current search for flightMH370, it is highly unlikely thatBayes Theorem is being applied.

Air France Accident summary

Date 1 June 2009

Summary Entered high altitude stall,

impacted ocean

Site Atlantic Ocean

near waypointTASIL[1]

30357N303342WCoordinat

es: 30357N303342WPassengers 216

Crew 12

Fatalities 228 (all)

Survivors 0

Aircraft type Airbus A330-203

Operator Air France

Registration F-GZCP

Flight origin Rio de JaneiroGaleo Airport

Destination Paris-Charles de Gaulle Airport
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_Oceanhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waypointhttp://tools.wmflabs.org/geohack/geohack.php?pagename=Air_France_Flight_447&params=3_03_57_N_30_33_42_W_type:eventhttp://tools.wmflabs.org/geohack/geohack.php?pagename=Air_France_Flight_447&params=3_03_57_N_30_33_42_W_type:eventhttp://tools.wmflabs.org/geohack/geohack.php?pagename=Air_France_Flight_447&params=3_03_57_N_30_33_42_W_type:eventhttp://tools.wmflabs.org/geohack/geohack.php?pagename=Air_France_Flight_447&params=3_03_57_N_30_33_42_W_type:eventhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geographic_coordinate_systemhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geographic_coordinate_systemhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geographic_coordinate_systemhttp://tools.wmflabs.org/geohack/geohack.php?pagename=Air_France_Flight_447&params=3_03_57_N_30_33_42_W_type:eventhttp://tools.wmflabs.org/geohack/geohack.php?pagename=Air_France_Flight_447&params=3_03_57_N_30_33_42_W_type:eventhttp://tools.wmflabs.org/geohack/geohack.php?pagename=Air_France_Flight_447&params=3_03_57_N_30_33_42_W_type:eventhttp://tools.wmflabs.org/geohack/geohack.php?pagename=Air_France_Flight_447&params=3_03_57_N_30_33_42_W_type:eventhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbus_A330http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_Francehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aircraft_registrationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rio_de_Janeiro%E2%80%93Gale%C3%A3o_International_Airporthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris-Charles_de_Gaulle_Airporthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris-Charles_de_Gaulle_Airporthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris-Charles_de_Gaulle_Airporthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rio_de_Janeiro%E2%80%93Gale%C3%A3o_International_Airporthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rio_de_Janeiro%E2%80%93Gale%C3%A3o_International_Airporthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rio_de_Janeiro%E2%80%93Gale%C3%A3o_International_Airporthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aircraft_registrationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_Francehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbus_A330http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbus_A330http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbus_A330http://tools.wmflabs.org/geohack/geohack.php?pagename=Air_France_Flight_447&params=3_03_57_N_30_33_42_W_type:eventhttp://tools.wmflabs.org/geohack/geohack.php?pagename=Air_France_Flight_447&params=3_03_57_N_30_33_42_W_type:eventhttp://tools.wmflabs.org/geohack/geohack.php?pagename=Air_France_Flight_447&params=3_03_57_N_30_33_42_W_type:eventhttp://tools.wmflabs.org/geohack/geohack.php?pagename=Air_France_Flight_447&params=3_03_57_N_30_33_42_W_type:eventhttp://tools.wmflabs.org/geohack/geohack.php?pagename=Air_France_Flight_447&params=3_03_57_N_30_33_42_W_type:eventhttp://tools.wmflabs.org/geohack/geohack.php?pagename=Air_France_Flight_447&params=3_03_57_N_30_33_42_W_type:eventhttp://tools.wmflabs.org/geohack/geohack.php?pagename=Air_France_Flight_447&params=3_03_57_N_30_33_42_W_type:eventhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geographic_coordinate_systemhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geographic_coordinate_systemhttp://tools.wmflabs.org/geohack/geohack.php?pagename=Air_France_Flight_447&params=3_03_57_N_30_33_42_W_type:eventhttp://tools.wmflabs.org/geohack/geohack.php?pagename=Air_France_Flight_447&params=3_03_57_N_30_33_42_W_type:eventhttp://tools.wmflabs.org/geohack/geohack.php?pagename=Air_France_Flight_447&params=3_03_57_N_30_33_42_W_type:eventhttp://tools.wmflabs.org/geohack/geohack.php?pagename=Air_France_Flight_447&params=3_03_57_N_30_33_42_W_type:eventhttp://tools.wmflabs.org/geohack/geohack.php?pagename=Air_France_Flight_447&params=3_03_57_N_30_33_42_W_type:eventhttp://tools.wmflabs.org/geohack/geohack.php?pagename=Air_France_Flight_447&params=3_03_57_N_30_33_42_W_type:eventhttp://tools.wmflabs.org/geohack/geohack.php?pagename=Air_France_Flight_447&params=3_03_57_N_30_33_42_W_type:eventhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_France_Flight_447http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waypointhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_Oceanhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stall_(flight)


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Inconclusive Theories about MH 370

Sudden shut down of allflight systems

Sabotage by suspects

Hijackers on board

Undesirable clients in thecockpit

Deep dive into ocean bed

Disgruntled or insane flight

officer Ill equipped management

and security systems

Etc., etc., etc..


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learn from experience

Bayes' Theorem,

is all about learningfrom experience

one would need"reasonably accuratepast experiences" forthe theorem to work

in other words, tocalculate accurately tolocate the plane


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find the plane

go find theplane, withscience in your

bag, enough ofspiritual andemotional

beliefs andtraditionalmethods-masi


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thanks

Malaysian government reports/statements

Wikipedia.com

Malaysiakini Radio/TV and the Media

Photo Gallery

Gayesian experts like Sharon Bertsch McGrayne

mh370 and the bayes theory

Documents