m.g. edited science. courtroom hydrological ltd. sons.per
TRANSCRIPT
58M
odel
Val
idal
ion
5M
od
els
inth
eC
ou
rtro
om
E.
SC
OT
TB
AIR
De
pa
rtm
en
tofG
eo
log
ica
lSci
en
ces,
Oh
ioS
tate
Uni
vers
ity,
US
A
5.1
INT
RO
DU
CT
ION
Mos
tsc
ient
ists
and
engi
neer
sw
illne
ver
ente
ra
cour
troo
mas
apa
rty
ina
law
suit.
Mos
tof
usm
ayne
ver
prov
ide
expe
rtte
stim
ony
ina
tria
l.Y
ettr
ial
byju
ryis
one
ofth
em
ost
valu
edan
dhi
ghly
defe
nded
righ
tsgu
aran
teed
toci
tizen
sof
the
Uni
ted
Sta
tes
byth
eU
SC
onst
itut
ion.
Itis
tbe
hall
mar
kof
tbe
US
syst
emof
just
ice.
Alt
houg
hth
eA
nglo
-Am
eric
ansy
stem
ofju
risp
rude
nce
isro
oted
inth
e'in
quis
itio
ns'o
rder
edby
Wil
liam
the
Coo
quer
orin
11th
cent
ury
Eog
land
tode
term
ine
the
coun
trys
ide'
sw
ealt
han
dpo
pula
tion
(Van
Dyk
e19
87),
the
appe
aran
ceof
hy
drol
ogic
mod
els
inco
urtr
oom
sis
obvi
ousl
ya
latc
20th
cent
ury
phen
omen
on.
Mod
ern
hydr
olog
icm
odel
sfo
unde
don
solv
ing
part
iald
iffer
entia
lequ
atio
nsus
ing
num
eric
alm
etho
dsal
soca
nbe
trac
edto
Eng
land
.S
haw
and
Sou
thw
ell(
1941
)m
ayha
vebe
enth
efi
rst
tous
ea
finite
-diff
ereo
cem
odel
toad
dres
sa
grou
ndw
ater
seep
age
prob
lem
.Adv
ance
sin
num
eric
alm
etho
dsan
din
our
theo
reti
cal
and
appl
ied
know
ledg
eov
erth
epa
st30
year
sco
mbi
ned
wit
hco
ntin
uous
impr
ovem
ent i
nth
eea
se.c
ost
and
pow
erof
com
pute
rsha
veen
able
dhy
drol
ogis
tsto
addr
ess
prob
lem
spr
evio
usly
cons
ider
edin
trac
tabl
e.T
heab
ilit
yto
mod
elco
mpl
exhy
drol
ogy
com
bine
dw
ithfe
dera
lan
dst
ate
envi
ronm
enta
lla
ws
prom
ulga
ted
inth
ela
ller
part
ofth
e20
thce
ntur
yto
prot
ect
wat
ersu
pplie
s,m
anag
ew
aste
hand
ling,
and
impr
ove
was
tedi
spos
alha
veca
used
US
hydr
olog
ists
topa
rtic
ipat
ein
vari
ous
type
sof
liti
gati
on.A
sex
pert
witn
esse
s,w
em
ayte
stify
inla
wsu
itsfil
edun
der
viol
atio
nsof
envi
ronm
enta
lsta
tute
sor
tort
law
s(la
ws
rela
ting
tow
ilful
orne
glig
ent
dam
age
or
inju
ry).
In19
95,U
SD
istr
ictC
ourt
sbe
gan
over
4500
0ne
wca
ses
deal
ing
with
tort
acti
ons
and
envi
ronm
enta
lm
atte
rs(U
SD
epar
tmen
tof
Com
mer
ce19
97,
p.21
6).A
lthou
ghm
ost
ofth
ese
case
sdo
not
invo
lve
hydr
olog
icis
sues
orre
quir
ete
stim
ony
from
hydr
olog
icex
pert
s,an
don
ly5%
actu
ally
goto
tria
l(G
ross
man
and
Vau
ghn
1999
),th
est
atis
tics
reve
alth
eze
alw
eA
mer
ican
sha
vefo
rre
solv
ing
conf
lict
bylit
igat
ion.
Inco
urt,
asin
othe
rap
plic
atio
ns,h
ydro
logi
cm
odel
sar
eus
edto
eval
uate
hist
oric
hydr
olog
icev
ents
orco
ndit
ions
,and
are
used
topr
edic
tfu
ture
hydr
olog
icev
ents
orco
ndit
ions
.In
both
case
s,lh
ecr
edib
ilit
yof
the
mod
elre
sts
inth
esu
bjec
tive
judg
men
tof a
jury
oraj
udge
.Ide
ally
,we,
the
scie
ntis
tsan
den
gine
ers,
wou
ldlik
eth
eju
ryor
judg
eto
first
deci
dew
heth
erth
em
odel
isa
reas
onab
lere
pres
enta
tion
efth
ere
alhy
drol
ogic
syst
eman
dth
ende
term
ine
whe
ther
the
pred
ictiv
esi
mul
atio
nsar
ere
ason
able
base
don
the
abili
tyof
the
mod
elto
repr
oduc
ekn
own
(mea
sure
d)ph
ysic
alst
ates
ofth
eflo
wsy
stem
.Iti
sun
likel
y,ho
wev
er,t
hatt
his
type
ofse
quen
tial
,cr
itic
alev
alua
tion
will
occu
r.It
ism
ore
likel
yth
atth
eju
ryo
rjud
gew
illsi
mpl
yas
sess
the
over
all
belie
vabi
lity
ofth
esc
ient
ific
test
imon
y.T
erm
ssu
chas
valid
ate
and
veri
fyth
atsu
gges
tor
impl
yre
alis
mor
trut
har
eus
edto
pain
tri
ghte
ous
imag
esof
mod
els
for
the
jury
orju
dge.
As
aco
nseq
uenc
e,th
ese
com
mon
mod
ellin
gte
rms
and
the
proc
edur
eshy
drol
ogis
tsus
eto
subs
tant
iat
eth
eir
conc
lusi
ons
are
ofte
nhi
ghly
cont
este
dby
the
oppo
sing
part
y.
Mod
elV
alid
alio
,,:Pe
r.spe
<:liv
e.sln
Hyd
rolo
gica
lSci
ence
.Edi
ted
byM
.G.A
nder
son
and
P.O
.Bat
es.
C20
01Jo
hnW
iley
&So
ns.L
td.
Itha
sbe
ensa
idth
atcr
oss-
exam
inat
ion
isth
em
ost
pow
erfu
lto
olin
the
US
lega
lsy
stem
for
elic
itin
gtr
uth
from
witn
esse
s.It
bas
also
been
said
that
cros
s-ex
amin
atio
nby
hara
ssm
ent
isO
De
oflh
egr
eate
stim
pedi
men
tsto
trut
h(G
erbe
r19
87).
Fo
ra
hydr
olog
icm
odel
ler,
cros
sex
amin
atio
nis
guar
ante
edto
bea
chal
leng
ing
expe
rien
cere
gard
less
ofth
ede
gree
ofva
lidity
.am
ount
ofve
raci
ty,
orth
enu
mbe
rof
conf
irm
ing
obse
rvat
ions
supp
orti
ngth
em
odel
and
itspr
edic
tions
.M
yob
ject
ives
inw
ritin
gth
isch
apte
rar
eto
desc
ribe
issu
es.
som
esu
bsta
ntiv
ean
dso
me
philo
soph
ic,t
hat
aris
ein
the
cour
troo
man
dbe
aron
(1)
the
use
and
prese~tationofhyd~ologic
mod
els
byex
pert
witn
esse
s,an
d(2
)the
eval
uati
onof
thes
em
odel
san
dth
eir
resu
ltsby
aJu
ryor
judg
e.In
sodo
ing,
Iw
illus
eth
eev
ents
surr
ound
ing
afa
mou
sfe
dera
ltri
al(A
nne
And
erso
net
a~.
v.W
.R.
Gra
ce&
Com
pany
and
Beo
rric
eF
oods
,Inc
.)an
dth
ete
stim
ony
ofth
ree
expe
rthy
drol
ogts
tsw
hopa
rtic
ipat
edin
that
tria
lto
exam
ine
the
inte
rfac
ebe
twee
nsc
ienc
ean
dth
eU
Sle
gals
yste
m.
5.2
SC
IEN
TIF
ICM
ET
HO
DS
INC
OU
RT
Hyd
rolo
gist
s,lik
em
ost
othe
rw
itnes
ses,
are
visi
tors
inth
ele
gala
rena
.The
voca
bula
ryan
dru
les
used
byla
wye
rsm
ayse
emfo
reig
nto
us,
but
the
lega
lpr
oced
ures
that
can
even
tual
lypl
ace
apl
aint
iff's
com
plai
ntbe
fore
aju
ryar
esi
mil
arto
the
gene
rals
cien
tific
met
hods
we
use
tode
velo
pan
dte
sthy
poth
eses
.A
sa
resu
lt,th
epa
tha
law
suit
take
sth
roug
hth
eA
men
can
lega
lsys
tem
IS
not
unli
keth
epa
thhy
drol
ogic
rese
arch
take
sth
roug
hth
esc
ient
ific
com
mun
ity.
Alt
houg
hsc
ient
ists
dono
tne
cess
arily
agre
eon
all
the
com
pOne
nts
that
com
pris
eth
esc
ient
ific
met
hod.
mos
tag
ree
that
the
scie
ntifi
cm
etho
dis
ase
tof
info
rmal
rule
sfo
rfo
rmul
atin
gco
ncep
ts,
cond
ucti
ngex
peri
men
ts,
mak
ing
obse
rvat
ions
,de
velo
ping
infe
renc
es,
and
then
test
ing
thes
ein
fere
nces
byfu
rthe
rex
peri
men
tati
onan
dob
serv
atio
n(P
eter
s19
96).
Hyd
rolo
gic
mod
elle
rsco
mm
only
follo
wa
sim
ilar
set
ofpr
oced
ures
inco
nstr
ucti
ngan
dte
stin
gth
eir
mat
hem
atic
alm
odel
s.F
igur
e5.
1sh
ows
the
gene
rals
teps
inth
esc
ient
ific
met
hod,
proc
edur
esfo
llow
edby
hydr
olog
icm
odel
lers
,and
thei
rsi
mila
ritie
sto
the
path
aci
vil
law
suit
follo
ws
thro
ugh
the
Am
eric
anle
gal
syst
em.
Inth
ela
tter
sche
me,
ape
rcei
ved
inju
stic
ele
ads
toid
entif
icat
ion
ofpo
ssib
leca
usat
ion
and
the
filin
gof
ale
gal
com
plai
ntby
apl
aint
iff.
Inth
esc
ient
ific
met
hod,
this
isan
alog
ous
toin
itial
obse
rvat
ions
lead
ing
toth
efo
rmul
atio
nof
aqu
esti
onan
dth
ede
velo
pmen
tof
ahy
poth
es
is.
The
scie
ntif
ichy
poth
esis
and
the
lega
lco
mpl
aint
both
repr
esen
tqu
erie
sth
atha
vebe
enfr
amed
but
need
tobe
test
edan
dre
solv
ed.I
na
para
llels
ense
,the
yar
esi
mila
rto
the
stat
emen
tof
purp
ose
ofa
hydr
olog
icm
odel
and
the
deve
lopm
ent
ofa
conc
eptu
alfr
amew
ork
ofth
eflo
wsy
stem
..
Pre
-tri
aldi
scov
ery,
lhe
phas
eof
ala
wsu
itw
hen
info
rmat
ion
isac
quir
edan
dso
liC
lted
,lega
lst
rate
gies
are
form
ulat
ed,
and
prof
essi
onal
opin
ions
are
deve
lope
d,st
ated
and
quer
ied,
corr
esp
onds
toth
est
eps
inth
esc
ient
ific
met
hod
whe
reex
peri
men
tsar
epl
anne
dan
dex
ecut
ed,
obse
rvat
ions
reco
rded
, and
the
resu
ltsan
alys
edto
see
whe
ther
the
expe
rim
enta
ldat
asu
ppor
tor
refu
teth
ehy
poth
esis
.In
ahy
drol
ogic
mod
el,t
hese
step
sar
ean
alog
ous
toth
eca
libr
atio
nof
the
mod
el,
whe
rein
mea
sure
dw
ater
leve
lsan
d/or
disc
harg
esar
eco
mpa
red
tosi
mul
ated
valu
esto
dete
rmin
eho
ww
ell
the
mod
elre
prod
uces
the
mea
sure
dph
ysic
alst
ate
ofth
esy
stem
.In
atr
ial,
disc
over
edev
iden
ceis
pres
ente
dby
lay
witn
esse
san
dex
pert
witn
esse
sdu
ring
dire
ctex
amin
atio
nan
dth
enis
scru
tinis
edby
the
oppo
siti
ondu
ring
cros
s-ex
amin
atio
n.A
jury
orju
dge
mak
esth
efin
alde
liber
atio
nsre
gard
ing
acce
ptan
ceor
reje
ctio
nof
the
lega
lcom
plai
nt.A
tthe
end
ofth
etr
ial
proc
ess,
eval
uati
onof
the
test
imon
yby
the
jury
orju
dge
isim
med
iate
and
the
final
deci
sion
toac
cept
orre
ject
the
plai
ntiff
'sco
mpl
aint
ism
ade
byno
n·ex
pert
san
dis
reac
hed
quic
kly.
Mod
els
Inth
eC
ourt
room
5960
Mod
elV
alid
atio
n
Sci
enti
fic
Met
hod
Hy
dro
log
icM
od
elC
ivil
Law
suit
Init
ial
obse
rvat
ions
Per
ceiv
edin
just
ice
••
Def
me
pUfl
lose
Fon
nula
tequ
esti
onS
ugge
stca
usat
ion
••
•C
once
ptua
lize
mod
elD
evel
ophy
poth
esis
Fil
eco
mpl
aint
••••
•C
alib
rati
onto
Exp
erim
enta
tion
toD
isco
very
tote
stco
ncep
tual
izat
ion
test
hyp
othe
sis
gath
erin
form
atio
n
••••
•H
isto
cym
atch
ing
toC
oncl
usio
nsto
Tri
alto
OI:c
epto
rrej
ect
OI:c
epto
rre
ject
OI:c
epto
rre
ject
mod
elhy
poth
esis
test
imon
y
••
•P
redi
ctiv
esi
mul
atio
nsto
Jour
nalr
evie
wto
Jury
deli
bera
tion
toas
sess
caus
ality
dete
rmin
eac
cept
abi1
ityas
sess
liab
ilit
yfo
rpu
blic
atio
n •E
valu
atio
nby
scie
ntif
icco
mm
unit
yto
acce
ptor
reje
cthy
poth
esis
Fig
ure
5.1
Sim
ilar
itie
sam
ong
the
scla
ntlf
lcm
etho
d,tr
ial
proc
edur
esan
dhy
drol
ogic
mod
elco
nstr
uctio
n
Inth
esc
ient
ific
aren
a,th
eex
peri
men
tal
data
are
anal
ysed
aDd
conc
lusi
ons
(infe
renc
es)
are
draw
nw
heth
erto
acce
pto
rre
ject
the
hypo
thes
is.If
the
hypo
thes
isis
acce
pted
,th
ew
ork
isco
mm
only
subm
itted
for
publ
icat
ion
ina
prof
essi
onal
jour
nal
whe
reit
issc
rutin
ised
bype
erre
view
ers
toas
sess
its
acce
ptab
ilit
yfo
rpu
blic
atio
n.If
the
wor
kis
acce
pted
for
publ
icat
ion,
the
grea
ter
scie
ntif
icco
mm
unit
ym
akes
the
fina
lac
cept
ance
or
reje
ctio
nof
the
hypo
thes
is.
In
cont
rast
toth
ele
galp
roce
ss,e
valu
atio
no
fpro
fess
iona
lopi
nion
sth
roug
hth
esc
ient
ific
proc
essi
ssl
ow,
ism
ade
byfe
llow
expe
rts,
and
the
final
deci
sion
may
not
bere
ache
dfo
rye
ars
asot
her
scie
ntis
tstr
yto
repl
icat
eth
ew
ork
(Bai
ran
dW
ood
1999
).A
lthou
ghth
ere
are
sim
ilari
ties
betw
een
scie
nce
and
law
,th
ere
are
also
diff
eren
ces.
Am
ajor
diff
eren
ceis
inth
etim
esp
ent
eval
uati
ngw
heth
erto
acce
ptor
reje
ctth
ehy
poth
esis
,th
ete
stim
ony
and
the
mod
el(F
igur
e5.
1).D
elib
erat
ions
bya
jury
over
test
imon
ypr
esen
ted
ina
tria
lm
ayta
keho
urs,
som
etim
esda
ys,o
nra
reoc
casi
ons
wee
ks.
Eva
luat
ion
byth
egr
eate
rsc
ient
ific
com
mun
ity
ofne
wco
ncep
tspu
blis
hed
ina
jour
nal
may
take
mon
ths
toye
ars,
som
etim
esde
cade
s.A
noth
erdi
ffer
ence
isth
atth
eju
ryis
mad
eup
of'n
on-e
xper
tsw
hose
com
mon
know
led
geis
relie
dup
onto
rend
eran
impa
rtia
lju
dgm
ent,
whe
reas
the
scie
ntifi
cco
mm
unity
isco
mpr
ised
orco
mpe
ting
scie
ntis
tsw
hose
expe
rtis
eis
relie
dup
onto
repe
atth
eex
peri
men
tsan
dva
lidat
eor
reje
ctth
ew
ork.
Ath
ird
diff
eren
ceis
that
tlie
scie
ntifi
cm
etho
dra
cilit
ates
reed
back
betw
een
hypo
thes
isde
velo
pmen
t,de
sign
and
exec
utio
nor
expe
rim
ents
,an
dro
rmul
atio
nor
conc
lusi
ons.
The
path
ora
civi
lla
wsu
itis
one
dire
ctio
nal
(see
Figu
re5.
1),
alth
ough
itca
nbe
stop
ped
byse
ttle
men
tor
the
verd
ict
over
turn
edon
appe
al.
Fed
eral
Judg
eL
ynn
N.
Hug
hes
expr
esse
dth
edi
ffer
ence
sas
follo
ws:
Scie
ntifi
cin
vest
igat
ion
isa
long
-ter
mpu
rsui
tfo
cuse
dat
unde
rsta
ndin
gou
rex
peri
ence
s,w
here
asju
risp
rude
ntia
linv
estig
atio
nis
ash
ort-
term
purs
uit
focu
sed
atre
solv
ing
aco
nflic
tbe
twee
ntw
oor
mor
epa
rtie
s.Sc
ienc
eha
sth
efr
eedo
mof
the
even
tual
ityof
findi
ngan
swer
san
dth
ege
nera
lity
ofap
plic
atio
n,w
here
asth
ela
wha
sth
eco
nstr
aint
so
fthe
imm
edia
cyof
reso
lutio
nan
dth
epa
rtic
ular
ityof
each
case
...C
ourt
sar
ea
soci
etal
mec
hani
smfo
rre
solv
ing
disp
utes
inw
hich
the
conc
epts
oftr
uth
and
just
ice
are
sign
ifica
ntbu
tsec
onda
ry.A
lthou
ghbo
thsc
ienc
ean
dth
ela
wse
ekth
etr
uth,
both
also
mus
tre
lyon
inco
mpl
ete
data
and
both
also
mus
top
erat
eun
der
unce
rtai
nty.
Scie
nce
and
law
dono
t,th
en,h
ave
com
petin
gvi
sion
sof
trut
h.R
athe
r,kn
owle
dge
com
pete
sw
ithre
solu
tion
...W
ene
edto
fitth
epr
oduc
tofs
cien
cein
toth
eta
skof
cour
ts.
(Hug
hes
(999
)
5.3
SC
IEN
TIS
TS
INA
NA
DV
ER
SA
RIA
LL
EG
AL
SY
ST
EM
Hyd
rolo
gist
s,lik
em
ost
appl
ied
scie
ntis
ts,a
reac
cust
omed
toconstruct~g
mod
els
with
inhe
rent
unce
rtai
nty
(Vos
s19
98).
Itis
high
lyun
usua
lfor
usno
tto
deal
with
spar
sean
d/or
nois
yda
ta.T
hege
nera
lpu
blic
look
sto
scie
ntis
tsto
unra
vel
and
expl
ain
the
phys
ical
,che
mic
alan
dbi
olog
ical
proc
esse
sth
atop
erat
eda
y-to
-day
with
inou
rre
alm
.T
hepu
blic
,ho
wev
er,
isac
cust
omed
tosc
ient
ists
desc
ribi
ngth
ese
proc
esse
sin
term
sor
law
s-
New
ton'
sL
aws
ofM
otio
n,th
eL
aws
orT
herm
odyn
amic
s,O
hm's
Law
,Sne
ll's
Law
,Dar
cy's
Law
,etc
.In
allo
win
gth
ispe
rcep
tion
ofsc
ienc
eto
prev
ail,
scie
ntis
tsha
veun
witt
ingl
yen
cour
aged
the
publ
icto
belie
vein
the
cert
aint
yof
scie
nce.
Art
eral
l,sc
ienc
e,de
als
with
defin
itive
law
sth
atar
ete
sted
.pro
ven,
and
repe
atab
le.A
sa
cons
eque
nce.
the
gene
ralp
ublic
.whi
chis
sam
pled
toro
rmth
eju
rypo
ol,i
sun
accu
stom
edto
the
met
hods
rout
inel
yus
edby
appl
ied
scie
ntis
tsto
deal
with
unce
rtai
nty.
For
hydr
olog
ists
,the
mos
tunc
erta
inas
pect
sof
mod
elco
nstr
ucti
on-
the
ones
that
nfte
nm
ake
anex
pert
witn
ess
squi
rmon
cros
s--e
xam
inat
ion
-ar
esp
arse
and
nois
yda
ta.
Usi
nga
shal
low
,tr
ansi
ent
cont
amin
ant
tran
spor
tm
odel
asan
exam
ple,
the
rollo
win
gty
pes
ofsp
arse
and
nois
yd
ata
com
mon
lyco
nfro
ntth
eex
pert
witn
ess
(Pri
cket
tand
Pet
tyjo
hn19
95).
•su
rfac
e-w
ater
/gro
undw
ater
inte
ract
ion
•he
tero
gene
ity,a
niso
trop
yan
das
sign
edhy
drau
licco
nduc
tivity
dist
ribu
tions
•sp
atia
land
tem
pora
lvar
iatio
nsin
rech
arge
rate
shi
stor
icpu
mpi
ngra
tes
and
sche
dule
sof
wel
ls
Mod
els
inth
eC
ourt
room
6162
Mod
elV
alid
atio
n
non-
syno
ptic
wat
er-le
vela
ndco
ntam
inan
tco
ncen
trat
ion
mea
sure
men
ts•
cont
amin
ants
ourc
ehi
stor
yan
dco
ntam
inan
tre
leas
era
tes
5.4
EX
PE
RT
WIT
NE
SS
ING
Exp
ert
witn
esse
s,un
like
lay
witn
esse
s,ca
npr
esen
top
mlO
ns.
An
expe
rtw
itnes
spo
sses
ses
know
ledg
eth
roug
hex
peri
ence
,tr
aini
ngor
educ
atio
nof
apa
rtic
ular
subj
ect
ingr
eate
rde
pth
than
the
gene
ral
publ
ic(M
atso
n19
94).
As
soci
ety'
sre
lian
ceon
spec
iali
sed
know
ledg
eha
sex
pand
ed,s
oto
oha
sth
eus
eof
expe
rtw
itnes
ses
(Wei
nste
in19
86).1
nre
cent
year
s,se
vera
lart
icle
san
dbo
oks
have
been
wri
tten
abou
tth
epr
olife
ratio
nof
junk
scie
nce
inth
eco
urtr
oom
.In
thes
ees
says
,exp
ert
wit
ness
esar
eco
mm
only
depi
cted
aspr
osti
tute
s,w
ho,f
orth
eri
ght
fee,
will
test
ify
toan
yfa
rfet
ched
theo
ryin
anat
tem
ptto
win
sym
path
yan
da
huge
awar
dfr
oma
scie
ntifi
cally
chal
leng
edju
ryse
lect
edfr
oma
tech
no-t
erri
fied
soci
ety
(Hub
er19
90;
Jost
1991
).P
eter
Hub
er,
auth
orof
Gal
ileo
'sR
even
ge:J
unk
Scie
nce
inth
eC
ourt
room
(199
1),a
rgue
sth
atth
ead
mis
sion
ofju
nksc
ienc
eis
inre
spon
seto
the
easi
ngof
stan
dard
sfo
rad
mis
sibi
lity
ofex
pert
test
imon
y.It
isa
prob
lem
that
may
befu
rthe
rhe
ight
ened
byju
dges
and
law
yers
who
are
not
adeq
uate
lytr
aine
dto
asse
ssth
eve
raci
tyof
the
scie
nti.f
icev
iden
cepl
aced
befo
reth
em(B
lauv
elt
1999
)..
For
muc
hof
the
20th
cent
ury,
cour
tsm
aint
aine
dth
atif
the
scie
ntifi
cth
eory
orre
ason
ing
was
suff
icie
ntly
relia
9le
toat
tain
the
gene
ral
acce
ptan
ceof
the
scie
ntifi
cco
mm
unity
,th
enth
eev
iden
cew
assu
ffic
ient
lyre
liabl
eto
bead
mitt
edin
cour
t.K
now
nas
the
Frye
Rul
e,th
isge
nera
lac
cept
ance
test
was
esta
blis
hed
in19
23(F
rye
v.U
nite
dSt
ates
)an
dgo
vern
edth
ead
mis
sibi
lity
ofsc
ient
ific
evid
ence
inU
Sco
urts
for
deca
des.
The
mai
ncr
itici
smof
the
Frye
Rul
ew
asth
atit
excl
uded
new
scie
ntifi
cad
vanc
esth
atw
ere
too
new
toha
vees
tabl
ishe
dge
nera
lacc
epta
nce
byth
esc
ient
ific
com
mun
ity
(Fos
ter
etal
.19
93).
Inth
ela
tter
part
ofth
e20
thce
ntur
y,m
any
stat
esad
opte
dth
eFe
dera
lRul
eso
fEvi
denc
e,w
hich
incl
uded
abr
oadl
ydi
scre
tiona
ryse
tofg
uide
lines
for
the
acce
ptan
cean
dre
stri
ctio
nof
scie
ntifi
cte
stim
ony.
Rul
e70
2,th
em
ost
impo
rtan
tof
thes
eru
les,
prov
ides
that
expe
rtte
stim
ony
isad
mis
sibl
e'if
scie
ntifi
c,te
chni
cal,
orot
her
spec
ialis
edkn
owle
dge
will
assi
stth
etr
ier
offa
ctto
unde
rsta
ndth
eev
iden
ceor
tode
term
ine
afa
ctin
issu
e'(W
eins
tein
1986
).A
ltho
ugh
the
'ass
ista
nce
toth
etr
iero
ffac
t'st
anda
rdli
bera
lise
dth
ead
mis
sibi
lity
ofsc
ient
ific
evid
ence
,itl
edto
the
adm
issi
onof
vari
ous
type
sof
nove
lexp
ertt
estim
ony
and
abl
urri
ngof
the
dist
inct
ion
betw
een
expe
rtte
stim
ony
and
lay
test
imon
y(W
eins
tein
1986
).T
heU
SSu
prem
eC
ourt
inD
aube
rtv.
Mer
rel
Dow
Pha
rmac
euti
cals
,In
c.,
a19
93ca
seal
legi
ngbi
rth
defe
cts
asa
resu
ltof
taki
ngth
ean
ti-n
ause
adr
ugB
ende
ctin
,he
ldth
atun
der
Rul
e70
2sc
ient
ific
know
ledg
epr
esen
ted
aste
stim
ony
mus
tbe
deri
ved
byth
esc
ient
ific
met
hod.
The
Supr
eme
Cou
rtal
sohe
ldth
atev
iden
tiary
relia
bilit
yis
tobe
base
don
scie
ntifi
cva
lidity
.Und
er
scie
ntis
tsan
den
gine
ers
accu
stom
edto
usin
gm
oder
nnu
mer
ical
and
com
puta
tiona
ltec
hniq
ues.
a51
%cr
iteri
onm
ayse
emlo
w.I
tm
ayse
emso
low
that
itaf
ford
sso
me
crea
tivity
for
expe
rts
tous
ean
alys
iste
chni
ques
that
prod
uce
resu
ltsm
ore
favo
urab
leto
thei
rcl
ient
'sca
se.T
his
appr
oach
isno
tun
ethi
cal.
Itm
aybe
empl
oyed
for
ava
riet
yof
reas
ons
-sc
ient
ists
may
appr
oach
prob
lem
sdi
ffer
entl
y,pa
rtie
sof
ten
cann
otaf
ford
the
mos
trig
orou
ssc
ient
ific
appr
oach
,leg
alst
rate
gies
may
not
call
for
aco
mpl
exan
alys
is.A
nov
erly
sim
plis
ticap
proa
chca
nle
adto
asm
uch
criti
cism
oncr
oss-
exam
inat
ion
conc
erni
ngin
appr
opri
ate
use
ofis
otro
pic
and
hom
ogen
eous
para
met
erva
lues
asca
nus
eof
inap
prop
riat
era
nges
ofhe
tero
gene
ous
para
met
erva
lues
ina
com
plex
anal
ysis
.Sim
plify
ing
assu
mpt
ions
are
alw
ays
good
fodd
erfo
rcr
oss-
exam
inat
ion.
Itis
upto
the
expe
rt,
inco
nsul
tatio
nw
ithhi
sfhe
rla
wye
r,to
deci
dew
heth
era
sim
ple,
one-
dim
ensi
onal
anal
ytic
alm
odel
issu
ffic
ient
lyre
pres
enta
tive
ofth
eflo
wsy
stem
,or
whe
ther
aco
mpl
ex,t
hree
di
men
sion
alnu
mer
ical
mod
elis
requ
ired
,or
whe
ther
ala
bora
tory
dem
onst
ratio
nus
ing
asa
ndta
nkis
appr
opri
ate.
Itis
diff
icul
tto
pred
ictw
heth
er,i
nth
em
inds
ofth
eju
rors
,asi
mpl
eel
egan
tbu
tfu
ndam
enta
llyfla
wed
cons
truc
tion
will
bem
ore
orle
ssbe
lieva
ble
than
aco
mpl
exar
cane
trut
h.
100"
"'
Evi
denc
ein
civi
ltria
l
Valid
....id
ence
need
ed10
find
defe
ndan
tlia
ble
Pro
babi
lity
of
tru
ehy
poth
esis
1.00
unat
tain
able
Acc
eptib
ility
of
mod
elre
sults
Fig
ure
5.2
Com
pari
son
ofst
anda
rds
betw
een
aci
vil
tria
l,th
epr
obab
ility
ofa
corr
ect
hypo
thes
is,a
nd
the
acce
ptab
ilit
yof
resu
lts
from
ahy
drol
ogic
mod
el
Inm
ost
case
sin
volv
ing
site
-spe
cific
appl
icat
ion
ofhy
drol
ogic
mod
els,
man
yfa
ctor
sar
esi
mpl
yun
know
nan
dhe
nce
unce
rtai
n.B
ecau
seof
unce
rtai
ntie
s,m
ost
hydr
olog
ists
,if
pres
sed,
mig
htad
mit
toac
cept
ing
mod
elre
sults
that
are,
ina
loos
ely
quan
titat
ive
sens
e,75
to90
%ac
cura
te(s
eeF
igur
e5.
2).T
his
assu
mes
that
am
odel
cann
otbe
cons
truc
ted
that
is10
0%ac
cura
te(B
rede
hoef
tan
dK
onik
ow19
93).
Giv
ena
prob
abil
ity
rang
efr
om0
to1.
0th
ata
hydr
olog
icm
odel
accu
rate
lyre
pres
ents
the
Bow
syst
eman
dac
cept
ing
that
nohy
poth
esis
or
mod
elca
nbe
100%
accu
rate
,the
na
rang
eof
0.75
to0.
90,o
r75
to90
%,f
ora
hydr
olog
icfie
ldpr
oble
mw
ould
dem
onst
rate
are
lati
vely
high
degr
eeof
corr
espo
nden
cebe
twee
nm
odel
resu
lts
and
mea
sure
dva
lues
.In
the
exam
ple
ofa
cont
amin
ant
tran
spor
tm
odel
,thi
sw
ould
bea
rela
tivel
yhi
ghde
gree
ofco
rres
pond
ence
betw
een
sim
ulat
edan
dm
easu
red
valu
esof
hydr
aulic
head
,st
ream
flow
chan
gean
dso
lute
conc
entr
atio
n.O
ver
the
past
seve
ral
deca
des,
hydr
olog
ists
have
com
eto
expe
cta
high
erde
gree
ofac
cura
cybe
caus
em
oder
nfin
ite-e
lem
ent
and
finite
-diff
eren
cete
ch
niqu
esre
quir
efe
wer
sim
plify
ing
assu
mpt
ions
abou
tth
ehy
drog
eolo
gic
sett
ing
and
can
addr
ess
mor
edi
ffic
ult
boun
dary
cond
ition
sth
anth
ecl
osed
-for
mca
lcul
us-b
ased
anal
ytic
alte
chni
ques
deve
lope
din
the
mid
dle
ofth
epa
stce
ntur
y.In
aci
vil
tria
l,th
eju
ryba
ses
its
verd
ict
ona
prep
onde
ranc
eof
the
evid
ence
.F
or
the
jury
tofi
ndfo
rth
epl
aint
iff,
am
ajor
ity
ofth
eev
iden
cem
ust
indi
cate
that
the
defe
ndan
tis
liabl
e.T
o
Mod
els
Inth
eC
ourt
room
6364
Mod
elV
alid
atio
n
the
Dau
ber
tru
ling
,th
etr
ialj
udge
isas
sign
edth
ere
spon
sibi
lity
ofga
teke
eper
tom
ake
prel
imi
nary
eval
uati
ono
fwhe
ther
the
reas
onin
gan
dm
etho
dolo
gyun
derl
ying
the
test
imon
yis
scie
ntif
ica
lly
vali
do
rre
liab
lean
dw
heth
erit
isap
plie
dpr
oper
lyto
the
fact
sat
issu
e(F
oste
ret
aI.
1993
;B
lauv
elt1
999)
. Th
ega
teke
eper
'sro
leis
no
tto
dete
rmin
ew
hich
expe
rtop
inio
nis
corr
ect.
Rat
her,
itis
tode
term
ine
whe
ther
each
expe
rtus
edva
lid
scie
ntif
icre
ason
ing
and
prin
cipl
esto
reac
hhi
sfhe
rco
nclu
sion
san
dto
scre
enou
tpro
fess
iona
lopi
nion
sba
sed
onco
njec
ture
and
spec
ulat
ion
(Bla
uvel
t19
99).
The
Sup
rem
eC
ourt
esta
blis
hed
that
the
init
ial
dete
rmin
atio
nre
gard
ing
the
adm
issi
bili
tyo
fan
expe
rt's
scie
ntif
icte
stim
ony
isto
beba
sed
on
(1)w
heth
erth
eex
pert
opin
ion
isfo
unde
don
reli
able
data
,(2
)w
beth
erth
eex
pert
opin
ion
issu
ppor
ted
byva
lid
scie
ntif
icre
ason
ing
and
met
hodo
logy
.an
d(3
)w
heth
erth
eex
pert
opin
ion
isba
sed
onin
form
atio
nre
leva
ntto
the
case
(Bla
uvel
t19
99).
5.5.
EX
AM
PLE
OF
AN
NE
AN
DE
RS
ON
ET
AL
.v.
W.R
.G
RA
CE
&C
OM
PA
NY
AN
DB
EA
TR
ICE
FO
OD
S,
INC
.
Th
e19
86W
ob
urn
Tox
icT
rial
,the
info
rmal
nam
ere
rerr
ing
toA
nn
eA
nder
son
etaJ
.v.
W.R
.G
race
&C
ompa
nyan
dB
eatr
ice
Foo
ds,
Inc.
,is
anex
celle
ntex
ampl
eto
dem
onst
rate
the
anal
ogy
betw
een
scie
ntif
ichy
poth
esis
test
ing
and
the
civi
ltr
ial
proc
ess
usin
ga
case
that
cent
res
onth
ein
terp
reta
tion
of
hydr
olog
icd
ata
and
the
pred
icti
ons
of
hydr
olog
icm
odel
s.In
this
law
suit
,w
hich
isth
efo
cus
of
the
awar
d-w
inni
ngbo
okA
Civ
ilA
ctio
n(H
arr
1995
)an
dth
e19
99T
ouch
ston
eP
ictu
res
mov
ieof
the
sam
ena
me,
eigh
tpl
aint
iffs
,w
holi
ved
inea
ster
nW
obur
n,M
assa
chus
etts
,fil
edsu
itag
ains
ttw
ola
rge
corp
orat
ions
that
oper
ated
alo
cal
man
ufac
turi
ngpl
ant,
the
Cry
ovac
Div
isio
no
fW.
R.G
race
&C
ompa
ny,a
nd
alo
calt
anne
ryow
ned
byB
eatr
ice
Foo
ds,I
nc.T
hepl
aint
iffs
'198
2le
galc
ompl
aint
alle
ged
that
impr
oper
hand
ling
and
disp
osal
of
five
indu
stri
alch
emic
als,
incl
udin
gtr
ichl
oroe
then
e(T
CE
),di
chlo
roet
hene
(DC
E)
and
tetr
a·ch
loro
ethe
ne(p
eE
)at
the
two
prop
erti
es,
ente
red
the
grou
ndw
ater
syst
em,
flow
edto
two
mun
icip
alw
ells
,an
dpr
olon
ged
inge
stio
nan
dex
posu
reto
the
toxi
cch
emic
als
caus
edle
ukae
·m
ias,
cent
raln
ervo
ussy
stem
diso
rder
s,an
dot
her
heal
thpr
oble
ms.
Th
etw
om
unic
ipal
wel
ls,
know
nas
wel
lsG
&H
,be
gan
oper
atin
gin
1964
and
1967
,re
spec
tive
ly.T
he
wel
lsar
e2-
feet
indi
amet
er,
88·f
eet
deep
,an
d60
0fe
etap
art.
Bot
hw
ells
have
100f
oot
scre
ens
and,
whe
nop
erat
ing,
pum
ped
atav
erag
era
tes
of
700
and
400
US
gall
ons
per
min
ute,
resp
ecti
vely
.Wel
lsG
&H
wer
eus
edto
geth
eron
ly23
%of
the
tim
ean
dpr
imar
ily
wer
eus
edon
lydu
ring
peri
ods
ofd
roug
htto
augm
entw
ater
prod
uced
bysi
xot
her
mun
icip
alw
ells
inan
othe
rp
art
of
tow
n.T
hew
ells
wer
ebu
ilt
onea
rthe
nm
ound
sw
ithi
nth
efl
oodp
lain
of
the
Abe
rjon
aR
iver
.A
tno
rmal
stag
e,th
eri
ver
flow
sw
ithi
n30
0fe
eto
fwel
lG
and
100
feet
ofw
ell
H(F
igur
e5.
3).A
tele
vate
dst
ages
,the
rive
rflo
ods
acro
ssa
wet
land
and
flow
sw
ithi
na
few
feet
oft
hem
unic
ipal
wel
ls.T
hew
ells
are
cons
truc
ted
inhi
ghly
perm
eabl
egl
acia
lou
twas
hde
posi
tsfi
lling
abu
ried
bedr
ock
vall
eyco
mpo
sed
offr
actu
red
gran
odio
rite
(Fig
ure
5.4)
.Wel
lsG
&H
wer
ecl
osed
inM
ay19
79,
byor
der
ofth
eC
omm
onw
ealt
ho
fM
assa
chus
etts
,af
ter
wat
ersa
mpl
esre
veal
edco
ncen
trat
ions
ofT
CE
and
PC
Eex
ceed
ing
publ
iche
alth
stan
dard
s.U
SE
PA
(198
5)co
nsid
ered
TC
Ean
dp
eE
tobe
prob
able
hum
anca
rcin
ogen
s.S
ampl
esta
ken
from
wel
lsG
&H
prio
rto
this
date
wer
en
ot
anal
ysed
for
vola
tile
orga
nic
com
poun
ds.
Bec
ause
ofth
eco
mpl
exna
ture
of
the
case
,the
judg
e,in
acco
rdan
cew
ith
fede
ral
proc
edur
es,
divi
ded
the
case
into
tbre
eph
ases
.E
ach
phas
eco
ntai
ned
atr
ial
that
focu
sed
ona
spec
ific
issu
e.T
he
reso
luti
ono
fea
chis
sue,
inse
quen
ce,w
ould
prog
ress
toth
ede
term
inat
ion
of
the
ulti
mat
eIs
sue
-w
heth
erpr
olon
ged
cons
umpt
ion
ofdi
lute
conc
entr
atio
nsof
TC
E,
DC
Ean
d/o
rP
CE
caus
edth
esp
ecif
icty
pes
ofl
euka
emia
cont
ract
edby
the
plai
ntif
fs.T
hefi
rst
oft
hese
tria
lsw
asto
dete
rmin
ew
hich
,ifa
ny,o
fthe
cont
amin
ants
ente
red
the
grou
ndw
ater
syst
emon
the
defe
ndan
ts'
prop
erti
esan
d,if
so,w
heth
erth
eco
ntam
inan
tsfl
owed
toth
em
unic
ipal
wel
lsw
ithi
nth
etim
eth
ew
ells
oper
ated
.Ife
ithe
rdef
enda
ntw
asfo
und
liab
lein
this
phas
e,th
enth
esu
bseq
uent
two
phas
esw
ould
proc
eed
tode
term
ine
whe
ther
the
cont
amin
ant(
s)re
achi
ngth
ew
ells
coul
dca
use
leu
kaem
ias
and
the
othe
rhe
alth
effe
cts.
Intr
ifur
cati
ngth
etr
ial,
the
judg
epr
oduc
eda
seri
esof
sequ
enti
alsu
bord
inat
ehy
poth
eses
.Ift
heju
ryre
ject
edth
esu
bord
inat
ehy
poth
esis
for
apa
rtic
ula
rdef
enda
nt,t
hela
wsu
iten
ded
atth
atph
ase.
Ifth
eju
ryac
cept
edth
esu
bord
inat
eby
poth
esis
for
apa
rtic
ular
defe
ndan
t,th
ela
wsu
itco
ntin
ued
toth
ene
xtph
ase.
Fro
ma
hydr
olog
ist's
pers
pect
ive,
the
uniq
ueas
pect
ofth
istr
ifur
cate
dca
seis
that
the
firs
tph
ase
focu
sed
enti
rely
onsu
rfac
e-w
ater
and
grou
ndw
ater
hydr
olog
y.F
rom
the
jury
'spe
rspe
c·tiv
e,th
eun
ique
aspe
ctof
the
firs
tph
ase
isth
atth
epl
aint
iffs
did
not
test
ify
and
alm
ost
all
the
test
imon
ypr
esen
ted
byla
yan
dex
pert
wit
ness
esde
alt
wit
hsc
ient
ific
issu
esre
late
dto
con
tam
inan
tso
urce
area
san
dco
ncen
trat
ions
,ge
olog
icch
arac
teri
sati
on,
phys
ical
prop
erti
esof
sedi
men
tan
dro
ck,
indu
ced
stre
ambe
din
filt
rati
on,f
lood
freq
uenc
y,su
rfac
e-w
ater
and
grou
nd
wat
erin
tera
ctio
n,ft
owpa
ths,
reta
rdat
ion
fact
ors,
orga
nic
chem
istr
y,an
dth
epr
edic
tion
ofco
ntam
inan
tarr
ival
times
atth
ew
ells
usin
ghy
drol
ogic
mod
els.
As
are
SUlt,
the
tria
lpro
vide
san
inte
rest
ing
view
ofth
ein
terf
ace
betw
een
scie
nce
and
the
law
.P
re-t
rial
disc
over
ybe
gan
inO
ctob
er19
82.
No
fiel
dda
ta,
incl
udin
ggr
ound
wat
erle
vels
or
mon
itor
ing
wel
lsam
ples
,wer
eco
llec
ted
prio
rto
clos
ure
oft
hetw
om
unic
ipal
wel
lsin
May
1979
.A
sa
resu
lt,d
urin
gdi
scov
ery
itw
asne
cess
ary
tode
sign
and
perf
orm
fiel
dte
sts
tore
prod
uce
the
conf
igur
atio
no
fth
ew
ater
tabl
ew
hen
the
wel
lsw
ere
peri
odic
ally
oper
atio
nalb
etw
een
1964
and
1979
,an
dto
dete
rmin
eth
ede
gree
tow
hich
the
wel
lsw
ere
hydr
auli
call
yco
nnec
ted
toth
eA
berj
ona
Riv
eran
dw
etla
nd.I
ndep
ende
ntof
the
tria
l,th
eU
SG
eolo
gica
lS
urve
yan
dU
SE
PA
cond
ucte
da
30-d
aypu
mpi
ngte
stus
ing
wel
lsG
&H
.The
test
bega
nin
Dec
embe
r19
85an
dw
asdo
nein
supp
orto
ffed
eral
Sup
erfu
ndcl
eanu
pac
tivi
ties
atkn
own
sour
ces
ofco
ntam
inat
ion
near
wel
lsG
&H
.D
urin
gth
ete
st,w
ells
G&
Hw
ere
pum
ped
atth
eir
aver
age
rate
s.T
hepl
aint
iffs
'an
dde
fend
ants
'exp
erts
wer
epr
ovid
edth
egr
ound
wat
erle
vel
and
stre
amfl
owm
easu
rem
ents
mad
edu
ring
the
30-d
ayte
st.
The
sed
ata
help
edth
emde
velo
pth
eir
prof
essi
onal
opin
ions
for
the
tria
lco
ncer
ning
the
role
ofin
duce
dst
rear
p.in
filt
rati
on,
flow
path
sfr
omth
ede
fend
ants
'pro
pert
ies
toth
ew
ells
,and
trav
elti
mes
ofc
onta
min
ants
toth
ew
ells
.Bas
edon
thes
ean
dot
her
data
,th
ehy
drol
ogic
expe
rts
deve
lope
dco
ncep
tual
mod
els
ofth
ehy
drog
eolo
gic
sett
ing
and
cons
truc
ted
mat
hem
atic
alm
odel
sof
the
flow
syst
emth
atbe
cam
eth
efo
unda
tion
of
thei
rop
inio
ns.
The
expe
rts'
opin
ions
repr
esen
tin
fere
nces
draw
nfr
omth
eex
peri
men
tal
data
.F
igur
e5.
3sh
ows
the
conf
igur
atio
no
fth
ew
ater
tabl
eaf
ter
pum
ping
wel
lsG
&H
for
30da
ys.
Wat
erle
vels
inth
e45
mon
itor
ing
wel
lsus
edto
cons
truc
tF
igur
e5.
3ha
dno
tqu
ite
atta
ined
stea
dyst
ate
atth
een
do
fthe
pum
ping
peri
od(M
yett
eet
a1.
1987
).A
fter
the
firs
tda
yof
pum
ping
,pe
riod
icst
ream
disc
harg
em
easu
rem
ents
mad
eat
Oly
mpi
aA
venu
e,no
rth
ofth
ew
ells
,an
dat
Sal
emS
tree
t,so
uth
(dow
nstr
eam
)oft
hew
ells
(see
Fig
ure
5.3)
,sho
wed
that
wat
erin
the
rive
ran
dw
etla
ndw
asbe
ing
indu
ced
toflo
wdo
wnw
ard
into
the
aqui
fer
tosu
pply
the
two
mun
icip
alw
ells
.B
yth
een
do
fth
e30
day
pum
ping
peri
od.
ther
ew
as56
5U
Sga
llon
spe
rm
inut
ele
ssst
ream
disc
harg
em
easu
red
atS
alem
Str
eet
than
Oly
mpi
aA
venu
e(M
yett
eet
a1.
1987
).
5.5.
1E
xpe
rts'
Op
inio
ns
onth
eH
ydro
log
icS
yste
ma
tWo
bu
rn
Dur
ing
the
78-d
aytr
ial,
the
jury
hear
dop
enin
gre
mar
ksby
ala
wye
rre
pres
enti
ngea
chof
the
thre
epa
rtie
s,di
rect
test
imon
yan
dcr
oss-
exam
inat
ion
from
lay
and
expe
rtw
itnes
ses,
and
clos
ing
argu
men
tsfr
omth
ela
wye
rs.
The
jury
also
visi
ted
the
wel
lsG
&H
area
.D
urin
gdi
rect
exam
inat
ion,
the
geol
ogic
expe
rts
hire
dby
each
part
yde
scri
bed
the
aqui
fer
inw
hich
wel
lsG
&H
are
com
plet
edas
ahe
tero
gene
ous
sequ
ence
oftr
ansm
issi
vegl
acia
lsed
imen
ts(s
eeF
igur
eS.
4).
Th
em
ain
poin
tso
fco
ntro
vers
yin
the
opin
ions
ofth
ehy
drol
ogic
expe
rts
conc
erne
d(1
)th
e
W.f
t.\!'
!C!
I'Iyp
!rty,
I."..
..
EXf\.A~TION
[!J
Pn
l~
F.-.d
:U'ed
bfld
roc:
ka
OrM
ilI
901'1
1hol
lit
lS
and
and
grw
elI
PU
Tlll
ng..
Den
iel
.....l
lllC
r.n
•e"
dr
tit
--
•~~
~~~:
lIcS
ated
secl
"'*ll
•S
inO
/tt~
_.
_.
Bed
rock
surf
att
GJF
ill
Wei
ll) I
Mod
elV
alid
atio
n
5.5.
2P
lain
tiffs
'Exp
ert
The
defe
ndan
ts'la
wye
rsde
pose
dth
epl
aint
iffs
'byd
rolo
gic
expe
rton
thre
ese
para
teoc
casi
ons
for
ato
talo
f16
.5ho
urs
(Gro
ssm
anan
dV
augh
n19
99).
His
dire
ctte
stim
ony
occu
rred
onda
ys39
,40
and
41of
tbe
tria
l,w
bicb
was
follo
wed
byse
ven
days
ofcr
oss-
exam
inat
ion
and
two
days
ofre
-dir
ecte
xam
inat
ion
and
re-c
ross
exam
inat
ion.
The
plai
ntif
fs'e
xper
tcon
stru
cted
ath
ree-
dim
ensi
onal
flow
and
tran
spor
tm
odel
synt
hesi
sing
data
from
wel
llo
gs,s
oil
bori
ngs
and
slug
test
sin
toa
hete
roge
neou
sge
olog
icfr
amew
ork.
The
num
eric
alm
odel
was
used
tode
velo
pa
'cos
mop
olit
anvi
ew'
ofth
eaq
uife
ran
dflo
wsy
stem
.H
owev
er,b
ecau
seth
em
odel
was
notc
alib
rate
din
ari
goro
usm
anne
raga
inst
mea
sure
dva
lues
ofhe
ad,s
trea
mfl
owch
ange
orso
lute
conc
entr
atio
ns,i
twas
neve
rin
trod
uced
into
evid
ence
attr
ial
and
was
used
sole
lyto
illu
stra
tehi
sop
inio
nsdr
awn
from
othe
ran
alys
es.
Acc
ordi
ngto
the
plai
ntif
fs'e
xper
t,tb
em
odel
did
sim
ulat
eth
eov
eral
lpa
tter
nsof
grou
ndw
ater
flow
mea
sure
ddu
ring
tbe
30-d
aypu
mpi
ngte
st(D
epos
itio
n#4
,13
Feb
ruar
y19
86,p
.13
0).T
hepl
aint
iffs
'exp
ert
Fig
ure
5.4
Ge
ne
raliz
ed
ge
olo
gic
cro
ss-s
ect
ion
fro
mth
eB
ea
tric
ep
rop
ert
y,th
rou
gh
we
llG
,to
the
W.R
.G
race
prop
erty
(att
erM
ethe
ny19
98)
degr
eeto
whi
chth
eA
berj
ona
Riv
eran
dw
etla
ndw
ere
hydr
auli
call
yco
nnec
ted
toth
eaq
uife
r,(2
)tb
eby
drau
lic
prop
erti
esof
inte
rbed
ded
peat
and
fine
sand
unde
rlyi
ngtb
eri
ver
and
wet
land
,ou
twas
bsa
ndan
dgr
avel
intb
ebu
ried
valle
y,an
dsi
ltycl
ayO
odge
men
t)til
lun
derl
ying
the
upla
nds
(see
Fig
ure
5.4)
,an
d(3
)th
eco
nfig
urat
ion
ofth
ew
ater
tabl
ebe
neat
bth
eri
ver
and
wet
land
whe
nw
ells
G&
Hw
ere
pum
ping
(see
Fig
ure
5.3)
.The
opin
ions
ofth
eth
ree
hydr
olog
icex
pert
sdi
ffer
edsu
bsta
ntia
lly
onpa
thli
nes
and
trav
eltim
esof
cont
amin
ants
toth
ew
ells
,th
eca
ptur
ezo
nes
oftb
ew
ells
,and
wbe
tber
indu
ced
infi
ltra
tion
ofsu
rfac
ew
ater
ente
red
the
aqui
fer
and
Uow
edto
tbe
wel
lsdu
ring
pum
ping
.Fol
low
ing
are
desc
ript
ions
oftb
ete
stim
ony
oft
be
tbre
ehy
drol
ogic
expe
rts
inth
eca
se.A
sum
mar
yof
thei
rop
inio
nsan
dth
eba
ses
ofth
eir
opin
ions
are
give
nin
Fig
ure
5.5.
eo66 eo ... ...UII .1".... E .'" ~ ..0
!.--65
Mod
els
Inth
eC
ourt
room
Fig
ure
5.3
Wat
er-t
able
map
ofth
eA
berj
ona
Riv
erva
lley
nea
rw
ells
G&
Hat
ter
30da
ysof
cont
inuo
uspu
mpi
ng.3
Jan
uar
y19
86(c
onto
urs
from
Mye
tte
etal
.19
87).
WR
G;
W.R
.G
race
prop
erty
.B
F;
Bea
tric
eF
oods
prop
erty
.G
&H
;m
unic
ipal
wel
ls.T
;ta
nner
yw
ell
Mod
els
inth
eC
ourt
room
6768
Mod
elV
alid
alio
n
Fig
ure
5,5
Sum
mar
yof
hydr
olog
ists
'ex
per
top
inio
nsin
Ann
eA
nder
son
et
a/.
v.W
.R.
Gra
ce&
Co
mp
an
ya
nd
Bea
tric
eF
oods
,In
c
held
the
foll
owin
gop
inio
nsw
ith
resp
ect
toth
ein
tera
ctio
nof
the
wet
land
and
rive
rw
ith
the
grou
ndw
ater
Bow
syst
em.
Fie
ldda
ta
Bas
is
Geo
logi
cH
eter
ogen
eity
Riv
erin
filtra
tion
(wel
lspu
mpi
ng)
Pla
intif
fs'
Wa
ter
leve
ls,
wel
llo
gs,
focI
slug
test
s
Flow
vect
ors,
plus
1-0
anal
ytic
altr
ansp
ort
mod
el
Un
ifo
rmin
1-0
KGRA
C'=
75ft
lday
KsEATR~'
=23
00ft
lday
Lim
ited
infil
tra
tion
du
eto
peat
,re
ach
esw
ells
in10
to2
0ye
ars
Bea
trice
's
Wa
fer
leve
ls,
stre
am
flow
s,w
ell
logs
Pot
enti
omet
ric
map
san
dfl
owlin
es
Not
ad
dre
sse
ddi
rect
ly
Infil
trat
ion
ae
ale
sgr
ound
wat
erdM
de,
rea
che
sw
ells
in3
to4
mon
ths
w.R
.G
race
's
Wa
ter
leve
ls,
stre
am
flow
s,w
ell
log
s,fo
e.sl
ug
test
s,re
cha
rge
3-D
num
eric
alflo
wan
dtr
ansp
ort
mod
el
He
tero
ge
ne
ou
s3
laye
rsK
oNIG
,=0
.75
-1
13
ftld
ay
Sub
stan
tial
infi~ration
50
%o
fwe
lld
isch
arg
e•.
rea
che
sw
ells
in2
to4
mo
nth
s
...
inte
rms
ofB
eatr
ice,
Iw
ould
like
my
test
imon
yto
read
that
Te
Ew
as3
mon
ths,
[De
E]
-1.
03m
onth
s,[P
CE
]-
9.67
mon
ths..
.(T
rial
Day
41,
p.10
9)
Inth
isan
alys
is,
Ihe
plai
ntif
fs'e
xper
tus
eda
poro
sity
of0.
20,a
disp
ersi
vity
of67
.5fe
et,
and
diff
eren
tre
tard
atio
nfa
ctor
sfo
rea
chco
ntam
inan
tth
atra
nged
betw
een
1.5
and
8.F
or
the
calc
ulat
ions
pert
aini
ngto
cont
amin
ants
atW
.R.
Gra
ce,h
eus
eda
hydr
auli
cco
nduc
tivi
tyof
75fe
et/d
ay,a
hydr
auli
cgr
adie
ntof
0.00
1ao
da
dist
ance
of28
40fe
et,
whe
reas
heus
eda
hydr
auli
cco
nduc
tivi
tyof
2300
feet
/day
,a
hydr
auli
cgr
adie
ntof
O.o
I8an
da
dist
ance
of52
5fe
etfo
rth
eB
eatr
ice
calc
ulat
ions
(Tri
alD
ay41
,p.
109)
.In
his
opin
ion
the
chem
ical
sor
igin
atio
gat
Bea
tric
ere
ache
dw
ells
G&
Hw
ithi
na
few
mon
ths,
and
TC
Ean
dD
CE
orig
inat
iog
atW
.R.G
race
wer
epr
esen
tat
the
futu
relo
cati
ons
ofw
ells
G&
Hbe
fore
the
wel
lsw
ere
actu
ally
buil
t,as
sum
ing
the
chem
ical
sen
tere
dth
eD
owsy
stem
in19
60,t
heye
arth
epl
anto
pene
d.T
heA
berj
ona
Riv
er,i
nhi
svi
ew,
was
neit
her
aso
urce
ofad
diti
onal
cont
amin
atio
nto
the
wel
lsno
ra
sour
ceof
dilu
tion
beca
use
ofth
epo
orhy
drau
lic
conn
ecti
onbe
twee
nth
eri
ver
and
the
aqui
fer.
5.5.
3B
ea
tric
e's
Exp
ert
The
othe
rpa
rtie
sne
ver
depo
sed
the
expe
rthy
drol
ogis
thi
red
byB
eatr
ice.
His
enti
rete
stim
ony
occu
rred
duri
ngda
ys58
, 59
and
60of
the
tria
l.H
isop
inio
nsw
ere
base
don
his
conc
eptu
alis
atio
nof
the
hydr
ogeo
logi
cse
ttin
gus
ing
wel
llo
gs,
and
grou
ndw
ater
leve
lan
dst
ream
Dow
gain
flos
sm
easu
rem
ents
mad
edu
ring
the
30-d
aypu
mpi
ngte
st.
He
pres
ente
da
conc
eptu
alm
odel
ofth
eB
owsy
stem
,bu
tdi
dno
tco
nstr
uct
anan
alyt
ical
or
num
eric
alB
owm
odel
,or
com
pute
trav
eltim
es.
Wit
hre
spec
tto
the
inte
ract
ion
betw
een
the
Abe
rjon
aR
iver
and
the
pum
ping
wel
ls,
hem
ade
thes
est
atem
ents
duri
ngth
etr
ial.
...i
f1w
tre
totr
yan
dbr
acke
tthe
time
oftr
avel
ofco
ntam
inan
tsCr
omth
eriv
erto
the
wel
ls,i
tcou
ldbe
aslo
ngas
10to
20ye
ars.
(Tria
lD
ay43
,p.
67)
Ithi
nkve
ryli
ttle
[wat
er],
ifan
yat
allw
aspu
mpe
do
uto
fthe
rive
rdur
ing
the
pum
ping
tcst
orw
ells
Gan
dH
].(T
rial
Day
43,p
.71)
Th
ene
glig
ible
amou
ntof
indu
ced
infi
ltra
tioo
,he
stat
ed,
was
due
toth
eve
rylo
why
drau
lic
cond
ucti
vity
ofth
epe
atun
derl
ying
the
rive
ran
dw
etla
nd.
As
the
basi
sof
his
opin
ion,
the
plai
ntif
fs'e
xper
tus
eda
one-
dim
ensi
onal
anal
ytic
alflo
wan
dtr
ansp
ort
equa
tion
(Oga
ta-B
anks
equa
tion
,se
eD
omen
ico
and
Sch
war
tz19
98,
p.37
3)10
esti
mat
etr
avel
tim
esof
cont
amin
ants
from
the
W.R
.G
race
and
Bea
tric
epr
oper
ties
toth
em
unic
ipal
wel
ls.
Thi
son
e-di
men
sion
alan
alyt
ical
mod
elne
cess
itat
edus
eof
unif
orm
valu
esof
hydr
auli
cco
nduc
tivi
ty,h
ydra
ulic
grad
ient
and
poro
sity
,and
lim
ited
hydr
odyn
amic
disp
ersi
onto
the
long
itud
inal
dire
ctio
nof
grou
ndw
ater
Dow
.B
ased
onth
ison
e-di
men
sion
alan
alys
is,
the
plai
ntif
fs'e
xper
tmad
eth
efo
llow
ing
test
imon
yre
gard
ing
cont
amin
ant
trav
eltim
es.
...
atr
avel
tim
efo
rT
CE
of
3ye
ars
from
Gra
ce..
.th
etr
avel
tim
ein
term
so
fth
eG
race
site
toth
ew
ellf
ield
wou
ldbe
for
[DeE
]-
1.03
year~
[PC
E]-
9.67
yean
...
(Tria
lD
ay41
,pp
.108
-109
)
Iw
ould
say
that
rive
rw
ater
coul
dfl
owto
Wel
lsG
and
Hin
ape
riod
of3
to4
mo
nth
s.(T
rial
Day
58,
p.12
7)
...
the
rive
rcr
eate
sth
isri
dgep
ole
effe
ct,a
ndit
isth
ehi
ghpo
int
on
the
wat
erta
ble
surf
ace
wit
hth
eta
rpau
lin
that
slop
esaw
ayon
bo
thsi
des.
Thi
sis
caus
edby
the
pum
page
of0
actu
ally
indu
cing
wat
erto
leav
eth
eri
ver.
As
the
wat
ergo
eso
uto
rthe
rive
rcha
nnel
,itf
orm
sa
mou
ndo
nth
ew
ater
tabl
e,an
dth
em
ou
nd
isth
isri
dge-
shap
edaf
fair
...
(Tria
lD
ay59
,pp.
22-2
3)
...t
heco
neo
fdep
ress
ion
from
Gan
dH
,whi
chis
wha
twe'
vede
pict
edon
this
map
,can
only
gou
pto
the
rive
r.It
does
notc
ross
the
rive
r.S
oth
eef
fect
of[
weJ
ls]
Gan
dH
wiU
notc
ross
the
rive
rbu
twill
beco
ntai
ned
and
best
oppe
dfr
omle
akag
eby
the
rive
rits
elf.
(Tria
lD
ay59
,pp.
31-3
2)
The
Bea
tric
eex
pert
mad
eno
calc
ulat
ions
ofco
ntam
inan
ttra
vel
times
tow
ells
G&
Hbe
caus
ehi
san
alys
issh
owed
that
grou
ndw
ater
unde
rth
eB
eatr
ice
prop
erty
wou
ldno
tD
owun
der
the
rive
rto
the
east
and
dow
nwar
dto
the
wen
scre
ens.
He
mad
eth
efo
llow
ing
stat
emen
t.
Wha
tw
efo
und
ou
tw
asth
atgr
ound
wat
er[a
tB
eatr
ice]
,on
the
cont
rary
,mov
esaw
ayfr
omW
ells
Gan
dH
whe
nth
eyw
ere
pum
ping
.The
refo
re,t
hefa
ctof
havi
ngch
emic
als
inth
atw
ater
duri
ngth
e19
64to
1979
peri
odm
ayre
ally
bese
cond
ary
beca
use
even
ifth
eyw
ere
ther
e-an
dI'
mno
tsay
ing
they
wer
e-
bu
teve
nif
they
wer
e,tb
eyw
ould
no
tmov
eto
Wel
lsG
and
H.
(Tria
lDay
59,p
.57)
Mo
de
lsIn
the
Co
urt
roo
m69
70M
odel
Val
idat
ion
Inhi
sop
inio
n,co
ntam
inan
ts,
ifpr
esen
ton
the
Bea
tric
epr
oper
ty.w
ould
not
flow
east
war
dto
war
dm
unic
ipal
wel
lsG
&H
,bu
tw
ould
flow
wes
twar
d,aw
ayfr
omth
ew
ells
due
toth
egr
ound
wat
erm
ound
form
edbe
neat
hth
eA
berj
ona
Riv
erby
indu
ced
infi
ltra
tion
ofri
ver
wat
er.
Hen
ce,
cont
amin
atio
nm
easu
red
inw
ells
G&
Hin
May
1979
coul
dno
tbe
deri
ved
from
55-g
allo
ndr
ums
dum
ped
onth
eB
eatr
ice
prop
erty
beca
use
indu
ced
infi
ltra
tion
from
the
Abe
rjon
aR
iver
form
eda
barr
ier
togr
ound
wat
erflo
wfr
omth
atdi
rect
ion.
..fo
rT
CE
the
thre
epe
riod
sof
tim
eth
atI
calc
ulat
edw
ere
11ye
ars.
19ye
ars,
and
2Sye
ars..
.A
tthe
end
of
11ye
ars,
TC
Ew
ould
have
mov
eda
dist
ance
of75
Ofe
et.
Fo
r19
year
s,th
edi
stan
cew
ould
bele
ssth
an10
00fe
et.
And
for
2Sye
ars,
the
dist
ance
isle
ssth
an11
00fe
et.
(Tri
alD
ay68
,pp.
2-3)
The
dist
ance
(1,2
)tr
ans
(DeE
)w
ould
have
mov
edin
11ye
ars
isle
ssth
an80
0fe
et;
in19
year
s,le
ssth
an13
00fe
et;
and
in2S
year
s,le
ssth
an16
00fe
et.
[[ri
alD
ay68
,pp.
2-3)
#1.
Hav
eth
epl
aint
iffs
esta
blis
hed
bya
prep
onde
ranc
eo
fth
eev
iden
cetb
atan
yo
fth
efo
llow
ing
chem
ical
sw
ere
disp
osed
atth
eG
race
site
afte
rO
ctob
erI,
1964
and
subs
tant
iall
yco
ntri
bute
dto
the
cont
amin
atio
no
fWel
lsG
&H
byth
ese
chem
ical
spr
ior
toM
ay22
,19
79?
Bas
edo
nth
ese
mod
elsi
mul
atio
ns,h
isop
inio
nre
gard
ing
the
mov
emen
tof
orga
nic
solv
ents
atth
eW
.R.G
race
prop
erty
,whi
chw
ere
dum
ped
onth
ela
ndsu
rfac
ean
dpl
aced
in55
-gal
lon
drum
sin
ash
allo
wpi
t.w
asth
atev
enif
the
TC
E,
DC
Ean
dp
eE
wer
ere
leas
edin
toth
egr
ound
wat
erflo
wsy
stem
onth
eda
yth
epl
anto
pene
din
1960
,the
chem
ical
sw
ould
noth
ave
reac
hed
wel
lsG
&H
,ove
r25
00fe
etaw
ay,b
yM
ay19
79w
hen
the
wel
lsw
ere
shut
dow
n(T
rial
Day
68,p
p.2-
3).
5.5.
5Ju
ryV
erd
ict
At
the
end
ofth
etr
ial,
the
judg
ede
scri
bed
toth
eju
ryth
ele
gal
stat
utes
that
appl
ied
toth
eca
sean
dre
adtw
ose
tsof
spec
iali
nter
roga
tory
ques
tion
s,on
ese
toff
our
ques
tion
spe
rtai
ning
toea
chde
fend
ant.
whi
chw
ould
eluc
idat
eth
eir
verd
ict.
The
judg
ein
conc
ertw
ith
the
law
yers
com
pose
dth
esp
ecia
lin
terr
ogat
ory
ques
tion
s.O
bvio
usly
,th
eju
dge
belie
ved
the
jury
coul
dan
swer
the
ques
tion
sba
sed
upon
the
test
imon
ypr
esen
ted
atth
etr
ial.
The
firs
tsp
ecia
lin
terr
ogat
ory
ques
tion
.sh
own
belo
wfo
rW
.R.
Gra
ce,
aske
dth
eju
rors
tode
term
ine
whi
ch.
ifan
y,of
the
cont
amin
ants
subs
tant
iall
yco
ntri
bute
dto
the
cont
amin
atio
nof
wel
lsG
&H
duri
ngth
epe
riod
ofti
me
the
wel
lsop
erat
ed.
5.5.
4W
.R.
Gra
ceE
xpe
rt's
Te
stim
on
y
The
plai
ntif
fs'
atto
rney
depo
sed
the
expe
rthi
red
byW
.R.
Gra
cefo
r1.
5ho
urs.
His
dire
ctex
amin
atio
noc
curr
edo
nda
ys66
,67,
and
68of
the
tria
l,an
dw
asfo
llow
edby
cros
s-ex
amin
atio
no
nda
ys68
,69
and
70,a
ndre
-dir
ect
exam
inat
ion
onda
y71
.The
W.R
.G
race
expe
rtus
edw
ell
logs
.sei
smic
surv
eys,
and
soil
bori
ngs
from
the
area
toco
nstr
ucta
conc
eptu
alfr
amew
ork
ofth
ege
olog
icse
ttin
g.H
eus
edhi
stor
icpu
mpi
ngre
cord
s,hi
stor
icst
ream
flow
data
,an
dw
ater
-lev
elan
dst
ream
flow
mea
sure
men
tsfr
omth
e30
day
pum
ping
test
tode
velo
pa
conc
eptu
alm
odel
ofth
ehy
drol
ogic
syst
eman
dth
ein
tera
ctio
nbe
twee
nth
eri
ver
and
wet
land
wit
hth
egr
ound
wat
erflo
wsy
stem
.The
data
wer
ein
corp
orat
edin
toa
thre
e-di
men
sion
alnu
mer
ical
flow
and
tran
spor
tm
odel
that
was
used
tosi
mul
ate
tran
sien
tw
ater
leve
land
stre
amfl
owco
ndit
ions
,and
chem
ical
tran
spor
tin
the
flow
syst
emfr
om19
60to
1979
.The
mod
elin
corp
orat
edsp
atia
lva
riat
ions
inhy
drau
lic
cond
ucti
vity
,sp
atia
lan
dte
mpo
ral
vari
atio
nsin
rech
arge
.be
droc
kle
akag
e,pa
rtia
lpe
netr
atio
nof
the
wel
lsan
dri
ver,
and
hist
oric
pum
ping
rate
sof
the
mun
icip
alw
ells
.H
ydra
ulic
cond
ucti
vity
valu
esin
the
thre
e-la
yer
mod
elva
ried
from
0.75
feet
/day
for
the
lodg
emen
ttil
lun
derl
ying
the
bedr
ock
upla
nds
to11
3fe
et/d
ayfo
rth
egl
acia
lout
was
hfi
lling
the
buri
edva
lley.
The
Dow
mod
elw
asca
libr
ated
toda
taco
llec
ted
for
the
30da
ypu
mpi
ngte
stus
ing
wat
erle
vels
mea
sure
dim
med
iate
lybe
fore
wel
lsG
&H
com
men
ced
pum
ping
,tra
nsie
ntw
ater
leve
lsm
eas
ured
duri
ngth
e30
day
pum
ping
peri
odan
dst
ream
flow
gain
and
loss
mea
sure
men
tsm
ade
befo
rean
ddu
ring
the
test
. The
tran
spor
tmod
elw
asno
tcal
ibra
ted
beca
use
ofth
ela
ckof
hist
oric
TC
E,
DC
Ean
dP
CE
data
.A
sens
itiv
ity
anal
ysis
was
perf
orm
edus
ing
rang
esof
tran
spor
tpa
ram
eter
san
da
cons
erva
tive
assu
mpt
ion
was
mad
epl
acin
gth
eco
ntam
inan
tsat
the
wat
erta
ble
the
day
the
plan
top
ened
in19
60.
Inhi
ste
stim
ony,
the
W.R
.G
race
expe
rtm
ade
the
foll
owin
gst
atem
ents
rega
rdin
gth
ein
tera
ctio
nbe
twee
nth
eri
ver/
wet
land
and
wel
lsG
&H
:
(a)
tric
hlor
oeth
ylen
e(b
)te
trac
hlor
oeth
ylen
e(c
)1,
2tr
ansd
ichl
oroe
thyl
ene
yes_
_ye
,__
ye,_
_
no_
_0
0_
_
no_
_
But
unde
rcon
diti
ons
whe
rea
man
-cau
scd
hydr
olog
icst
ress
.tha
tis
pum
ping
ofa
prod
ucti
onw
ell
for
wat
ersu
pply
.and
that
wel
lis
loca
ted
clos
eto
the
Abc
rjon
aR
iver
,it
will
indu
cew
ater
toflo
wo
ut
ofth
eri
ver
into
the
aqui
fer
and
bea
sour
ceof
the
supp
lyo
fwat
erto
thos
ew
ells
.(T
rial
Day
67,p
.73)
The
seco
ndin
terr
ogat
ory
ques
tion
.sh
own
belo
w.
aske
dth
eju
rors
tode
term
ine
the
year
and
mon
thw
hen
each
cont
amin
ants
elec
ted
in#1
firs
tre
ache
dth
ew
ells
.
#2.I
fyou
answ
ered
'Ycs
'in
ques
tion
1as
toan
ych
emic
al(s
),w
hat.
acco
rdin
gto
the
prep
onde
ranc
eof
the
evid
ence
,was
the
earl
iest
tim
eth
atsu
chch
emic
al(s
)dis
pose
dof
onth
eG
race
site
afte
rOct
ober
1,19
64m
ade
asu
bsta
ntia
lco
ntri
buti
onto
the
cont
amin
atio
no
fWel
lsG
&H
?
...o
na
long
·ter
mpe
riod
...•
the
wat
erth
atco
mes
ou
toft
heri
ver
gets
toth
ew
elts
wit
hin
two
mon
ths,
and
that
iseq
ual
toab
ou
tha
lfth
ew
ell
pum
page
.[[
rial
Day
67,p
.73)
(a)
tric
hlor
oeth
ylen
e(b
)te
trac
hlor
oeth
ylen
e(c
)1,
2tr
ansd
ichl
oroe
thyl
ene
mo)~
_m
o..
_mo'~
_
yr..
_yr
._
yr..
_
The
W.R
.Gra
ceex
pert
view
edth
eri
ver
asa
prob
able
sour
ceof
cont
amin
atio
nto
wel
lsG
&H
beca
use
ofab
unda
ntin
duce
din
filt
rati
onan
dpe
riod
icD
oodi
ngof
the
wet
land
brin
ging
vola
tile
orga
nic
com
poun
dsan
dhe
avy
met
als
from
know
nhi
stor
icso
urce
sof
cont
amin
atio
nup
stre
amin
the
basi
nin
toth
eca
ptur
ezo
nes
ofth
em
unic
ipal
wel
ls.
Wit
hre
spec
tto
sim
ulat
edtr
avel
times
ofco
ntam
inan
tsfr
omth
eW
.R.G
race
prop
erty
toth
ew
ells
.he
mad
eth
efo
llow
ing
stat
emen
ts
Acc
ordi
ngto
Pac
elle
(l9g
6),
the
jury
was
dum
bfou
nded
byth
esp
ecif
icity
ofth
esp
ecia
lin
ter
roga
tory
ques
tion
s,es
peci
ally
havi
ngto
iden
tify
ada
te(y
eara
ndm
onth
)th
atea
chco
ntam
inan
tm
ade
asu
bsta
ntia
lco
ntri
buti
onto
the
cont
amin
atio
nof
the
wel
ls.
Pri
orto
rece
ivin
gin
stru
cti
ons
from
the
judg
e,th
eju
rors
belie
ved
they
wou
ldan
swer
asi
ngul
arqu
esti
onco
ncer
ning
the
sim
ple
liab
ilit
yof
each
defe
ndan
t,no
ta
seri
esof
com
plex
lyw
orde
dqu
esti
ons
abou
tea
chch
emic
alna
med
inth
ela
wsu
it(P
acel
le19
86).
The
thir
dan
dfo
urth
inte
rrog
ator
yqu
esti
ons
Mod
els
inth
eC
ourt
room
7172
Mod
elV
alid
atio
n
addr
esse
dth
ele
gal
issu
eof
negl
igen
cean
dw
ere
fram
edan
dw
orde
din
am
anne
rsi
mil
arto
the
firs
ttw
oin
terr
ogat
ory
ques
tion
s.A
fter
near
lyte
nda
ysof
som
etim
eshe
ated
deli
bera
tion
s(P
acel
le19
86),
the
jury
reac
hed
answ
ers
toth
esp
ecia
lin
terr
ogat
ory
ques
tion
s.W
.R.G
race
was
foun
dli
able
ofco
ntam
inat
ing
wel
lsG
&H
wit
hT
CE
begi
nnin
gin
Sep
tem
ber
1973
,hut
notw
ith
DC
Eo
rP
CE
.Bea
tric
eF
oods
was
foun
dno
tli
able
ofco
ntam
inat
ing
the
wel
lsw
ith
any
indu
stri
alch
emic
als.
The
answ
ers
toth
esp
ecia
lin
terr
ogat
ory
ques
tion
sse
rve
asth
eve
rdic
tan
dre
pres
ent
the
fina
lac
cept
ance
or
reje
ctio
nof
the
firs
tsu
bord
inat
ehy
poth
esis
.T
hetr
ial,
how
ever
,di
dno
tpr
ocee
dto
ase
cond
phas
ew
ith
the
rem
aini
ngde
fend
ant,
W.R
.G
race
&C
ompa
ny.
Sev
eral
mon
ths
late
r,a
sett
lce
men
tw
asre
ache
dbe
twee
nth
epl
aint
iffs
and
W.R
Gra
ce,
shor
tly
afte
rth
eju
dge
indi
cate
dhe
wou
ldgr
ant
the
defe
ndan
t'sm
otio
nfo
ra
mis
tria
lba
sed,
inpa
rt,
onin
cons
iste
ncie
sin
the
resp
onse
sto
tbe
spec
iali
nter
roga
tory
ques
tion
s(P
acel
le19
86).
5.5.
6D
iscu
ssio
n01
Wob
urn
Ve
rdic
t
Bas
edon
the
acco
unts
ofP
acel
le(1
986)
,K
enne
dy(1
989)
,an
dH
arr
(199
5),
itis
appa
rent
that
man
yof
the
part
icip
ants
and
obse
rver
sof
the
Wob
urn
Tox
icT
rial
felt
that
the
US
lega
lsys
tem
oper
ated
ata
leve
lbel
owits
best
.Aco
mm
oncr
itic
ism
ofth
eU
Sle
gals
yste
mis
itsre
lian
ceon
lay
juri
esin
exce
ptio
nall
yte
chni
cal c
ases
.Arg
umen
tsar
em
ade
that
high
lyte
chni
calc
ases
shou
ldbe
trie
dbe
fore
aju
dge
beca
use
judg
esar
em
ore
high
lyed
ucat
edan
dex
peri
ence
din
reso
lvin
gte
chni
cali
ssue
sth
ana
lay
jury
.Arg
umen
tsar
em
ade
that
tech
nica
lcas
essh
ould
betr
ied
befo
rean
expe
rtju
ry-
one
com
pris
edso
lely
ofex
pert
sw
hose
tech
nica
ldis
cipl
ines
are
germ
ane
toth
eca
se.
Alt
houg
hth
ese
argu
men
tsha
vem
erit
,so
doth
eco
unte
r-ar
gum
ents
.P
rent
ice
H.
Mar
shal
l,a
US
Dis
tric
tjud
ge,a
rgue
sth
at
...
inm
ost
civi
lan
dcr
imin
alca
ses
aca
refu
lly
sele
cted
jury
whi
chha
sre
cc:iv
edco
here
ntly
subm
itte
dev
iden
cean
dac
cura
tean
dsu
ccin
ctin
stru
ctio
nsis
supe
rior
toaj
ud
ge
inm
akin
gde
cisi
ons.
The
jury
'sco
llec
tive
com
preh
ensi
ono
fthe
fact
sis
mor
eco
mpl
ete
than
the
judg
e's.
The
jury
rend
ers
its
deci
sion
mor
equ
ickl
yth
anth
eju
dge
can.
The
jury
'sin
depe
nden
cean
din
tegr
ity
are
supe
rior
toth
eju
dge'
s.T
heju
ry's
cros
s-se
ctio
nal
mak
eup
brin
gsco
mm
unit
yva
lues
toth
ede
cisi
on·m
akin
gpr
oces
s.(M
arsh
all1
990)
Lyn
nN
.Hug
hes,
also
aU
SD
istr
ictj
udge
,arg
ues
that
itw
ould
bene
arly
impo
ssib
leto
empa
nel
aju
ryof
expe
rts,
who
indi
vidu
ally
did
not
deve
lop
bias
esas
are
sult
ofth
eir
prof
essi
onal
expe
rien
ces,
whe
reas
ala
yju
ry,
whi
lena
ive,
isun
bias
edan
dca
nus
uall
yun
ders
tand
the
pert
inen
ttec
hnic
alis
sues
(per
sona
lcom
mun
icat
ion,
Oct
ober
1999
).A
sa
soci
ety,
we
trus
tth
atth
eco
llec
tive
wis
dom
ofth
eju
ryw
illpr
oduc
eth
eco
rrec
tve
rdic
t(M
arsh
all
1990
).H
owev
er,t
hepr
oces
sby
whi
chth
eju
ryde
rive
sth
eve
rdic
tis
inhe
rent
lypa
ssiv
e(F
ried
land
1990
).Ju
rors
may
or
may
notb
eal
low
edto
mak
eno
tes
duri
ngth
etr
ial.
The
yca
nnot
read
supp
lem
enta
lm
ater
ials
or
refe
renc
ebo
oks.
The
ypr
obab
lyar
eno
tal
low
edto
revi
ewth
ete
stim
ony
tran
scri
bed
byth
eco
urtr
ecor
der.
The
yca
nnot
disc
uss
the
case
wit
hot
hers
,or
amon
gth
emse
lves
exce
ptdu
ring
form
alde
libe
rati
ons
foll
owin
gth
etr
ia!.
Stu
dent
sar
eac
tive
lear
ners
;ju
rors
are
not.
Juro
rs,
unli
kest
uden
ts,d
ono
tge
tto
bene
fit
from
hom
ewor
kas
sign
men
ts,t
erm
pape
rs,l
abor
ator
yre
port
s,an
dex
ams
that
rein
forc
eco
ncep
tsco
vere
din
clas
s.A
listo
fthe
hydr
olog
icto
pics
the
juro
rsin
the
Wob
urn
Tox
icT
rial
wer
eas
ked
toco
mpr
ehen
din
clud
esge
olog
icm
appi
ng,g
laci
alhi
stor
yan
dgl
acia
lstr
atig
raph
y,ph
ysic
alpr
oper
ties
ofro
cks
and
sedi
men
ts,d
raw
dow
nsan
dco
nes
ofde
pres
sion
prod
uced
bypu
mpi
ngw
ells
,str
eam
gaug~
ing,
floo
dre
curr
ence
inte
rval
s,in
duce
dst
ream
infi
ltra
tion
,aq
ueou
san
dor
gani
cch
emis
try,
regi
onal
grou
ndw
ater
flow
,con
tam
inan
ttra
nspo
rtw
ilh
reta
rdat
ion,
and
anal
ytic
alan
dnu
mer
ica
lmod
els
ofgr
ound
wat
erflo
wan
dtr
ansp
ort.
The
topi
csar
ene
arly
equi
vale
ntto
the
cont
ento
fco
urse
sa
grad
uate
stud
enti
sre
quir
edto
take
for
am
aste
r's
degr
eein
hydr
olog
y.O
nly
one
ofth
esi
xju
rors
inth
eW
obur
nT
oxic
Tri
alat
tend
edco
lleg
ean
dno
neha
dan
ysp
ecif
icsc
ient
ific
trai
ning
or
back
grou
nd(P
acel
le19
86).
The
crux
ofth
eju
ry's
deci
sion
sin
the
Wob
urn
Tox
icT
rial
cent
red
onth
eir
unde
rsta
ndin
gth
ehy
drog
eolo
gic
sett
ing
and
itsin
flue
nce
ongr
ound
wat
erpa
thli
nes
and
cont
amin
antt
rave
ltim
es,
the
inte
ract
ion
betw
een
the
grou
ndw
ater
flow
syst
eman
dth
ew
etla
ndw
hen
the
mun
icip
alw
ells
wer
epu
mpi
ngan
dw
hen
they
wer
eno
t,an
dth
epr
oces
ses
affe
ctin
gth
efa
tean
dtr
ansp
ort
ofch
lori
nate
dso
lven
ts.A
sa
soci
ety,
we
hope
the
jury
had
asu
ffic
ient
leve
lof
unde
rsta
ndin
gof
the
field
data
and
anap
prec
iati
onof
the
nece
ssar
yth
eory
and
conc
epts
todi
ffer
enti
ate
amon
gth
edi
verg
ent
opin
ions
held
byth
ehy
drol
ogic
expe
rts.
As
scie
ntis
ts,
we
hope
the
jury
was
able
todi
ffer
enti
ate
amon
gth
ete
chni
cal
appr
oach
esus
edby
the
hydr
olog
icex
pert
s.A
shy
drol
ogic
mod
elle
rs,
we
hope
the
jury
was
able
tode
ciph
erth
eli
mit
alio
nsof
each
expe
rt's
pred
icti
vem
odel
.W
eha
vehi
ghho
pes.
InJa
nuar
y19
99,H
arva
rdL
awS
choo
lhe
lda
conf
eren
ceca
lled
Les
sons
/rom
Wob
urn.
Man
yof
the
law
yers
,sev
eral
ofth
epl
aint
iffs
'mot
hers
,som
eof
the
expe
rtw
itnes
ses,
and
one
juro
rfro
mth
etr
ial
part
icip
ated
inth
eco
nfer
ence
.M
any
ofth
ese
peop
lele
dfo
cus
sess
ions
deal
ing
wit
hsp
ecif
icas
pect
sof
the
tria
l.(V
ideo
tape
sof
the
sess
ions
can
bevi
ewed
on
the
conf
eren
cew
ebsi
teat
ww
w.c
yber
.law
.har
vard
.edu
/aci
vila
ctio
n.)T
heju
ror
who
spok
em
enti
oned
'gro
win
gup
ona
cott
onan
dto
bacc
ofa
rmw
here
chem
ical
sw
ere
rout
inel
ysp
raye
don
the
crop
san
dth
athe
rfa
mily
used
asp
ray
bott
leof
DD
Tin
the
hous
eto
kill
flies
.T
oth
isju
ror,
expo
sure
toto
xic
chem
ical
sw
asa
com
mon
,no
n-de
lete
riou
soc
curr
ence
.T
he
juro
ral
som
enti
oned
that
wat
erfr
omth
eB
eatr
ice
prop
erty
coul
dno
t flo
wth
roug
hth
eA
berj
ona
Riv
erto
the
mun
icip
alw
ells
.To
me,
sitt
ing
inth
eau
dien
ce,i
tsou
nded
asif
the
juro
rco
nsid
ered
the
hydr
olog
icsy
stem
toco
nsis
tof
stre
ams
ofw
ater
that
cnul
dno
tpa
ssth
roug
hea
chol
her,
asd
obe
ams
oflig
ht.
The
juro
r's
com
men
tsug
gest
edth
atth
eju
rym
ayha
vese
enth
eflo
wsy
stem
inon
lytw
odi
men
sion
san
ddi
dno
tund
erst
and
the
impo
rtan
ceof
the
part
iall
ype
netr
atin
gw
ells
,ind
uced
infi
ltra
tion
ou
tof
the
rive
ran
dw
etla
nddo
wnw
ard
toth
ew
ells
,an
dth
eth
ree-
dim
ensi
onal
char
acte
rof
the
capt
ure
zone
sof
the
wel
ls.I
fthi
sis
true
,as
ate
ache
r,I
find
itte
rrib
lydi
sapp
oint
ing
-al
lth
ree
hydr
olog
icex
pert
s,es
peci
ally
the
plai
ntif
fs'a
ndW
.R.G
race
's,t
ook
seve
ralh
ours
inth
eird
irec
ttes
tim
ony
toed
ucat
eth
ejur
yon
the
loca
lgeo
logy
and
the
gene
ralc
once
pts
ofsu
rfac
e-w
ater
and
grou
ndw
ater
hydr
olog
y.H
ydro
logi
sts
inva
riab
lyar
edi
smay
edat
the
degr
eeof
scie
ntif
icce
rtai
nty
the
judg
ean
dth
ela
wye
rsex
pect
edof
the
jury
inor
der
toan
swer
the
cont
amin
anta
rriv
alti
me
ques
tion
sin
spec
ial
inte
rrog
ator
ies
#2an
d#4
wit
ha
prec
isio
nof
one
mon
th.H
owev
er,o
neof
the
hydr
olog
icex
pert
sst
ated
cont
amin
ant
trav
elti
mes
inte
rms
ofhu
ndre
dths
ofa
mon
th,
seem
ingl
yex
pres
sing
his
cert
aint
yin
the
arri
valt
ime
ofth
eco
ntam
inan
tsw
ithi
npl
usor
min
usei
ghth
ours
.Thi
sm
ayha
vebe
enth
epr
eced
ent
for
the
judg
ean
dth
ela
wye
rsto
requ
est
the
unre
alis
tic
degr
eeof
scie
ntif
icce
rtai
nty
stat
edin
spec
iali
nter
roga
tori
es#2
and
#4.A
spo
tent
iale
xper
twitn
esse
s.w
esh
ould
ask
ours
elve
sw
heth
erth
eun
real
isti
cde
gree
ofsc
ient
ific
cert
aint
yre
ques
ted
insp
ecia
lin
ter
roga
tori
es#2
and
#4de
mon
stra
tes
age
nera
lla
ckof
scie
ntif
icun
ders
tand
ing
byth
eco
urts
,or
does
itde
mon
stra
teo
urd
isre
gard
for
ackn
owle
dgin
gto
the
gene
ralp
ubli
cth
eun
cert
aint
yof
our
wor
k?O
utsi
deth
eco
urtr
oom
,we
ackn
owle
dge
that
even
the
mos
tco
mpl
ete
mod
elan
alys
isof
anac
tual
field
prob
lem
bas
lim
itat
ions
and
cont
ains
unce
rtai
nty.
Insi
deth
eco
urtr
oom
,un
cer
tain
tyis
usua
lly
reve
aled
oncr
oss-
-exa
min
atio
Din
atte
mpt
sby
the
oppo
sing
part
yto
coun
tera
ctan
dda
mag
ete
stim
ony
pres
ente
ddu
ring
dire
ctex
amin
atio
n.It
isin
tere
stin
gto
cont
rast
the
degr
eeof
scie
ntif
icso
phis
tica
tion
empl
oyed
byth
eth
ree
hydr
olog
icex
pert
sto
deve
lop
thei
rop
inio
nsco
mpa
red
wit
hth
eve
rdic
tre
nder
edby
the
jury
.
Mod
els
Inth
eC
ourt
room
7374
Mod
elV
alid
atio
n
Exp
ert
Op
inio
n
1.00
unat
tain
able
Fig
ure
5.6
Pro
bab
ility
ofco
nst
ruct
ing
are
alis
tic
mo
del
ofth
eh
ydro
log
icsy
stem
atW
obur
n.
Hav
ing
read
over
1800
page
sor
test
imon
ypr
esen
ted
byth
eth
ree
hydr
olog
icex
pert
san
dha
ving
help
edco
nstr
uct
thre
e-di
men
sion
alnu
mer
ical
flow
and
tran
spor
tm
odel
sor
the
wel
lsG
&H
area
(see
Met
heny
1998
),1
rank
the
degr
eeor
soph
isti
cati
onor
thei
rap
proa
ches
acco
rdin
gto
that
show
n.on
Fig
ure
5.6.
·T
he
plai
ntif
fs'e
xper
tan
alys
edw
ell
logs
from
the
valle
yan
dup
land
s,gr
ain-
size
anal
yses
and
slu
gte
sts
and
port
raye
dth
ege
olog
yas
ah
eter
ogen
eou
sas
sem
bla
geof
glac
ialm
ater
ials
.He
use
dth
isge
olog
icfr
amew
ork
toco
nstr
uct
anuD
calib
rate
dth
ree-
dim
ensi
onal
num
eric
alflo
wan
dtr
ansp
ort
mod
elus
edfo
rill
ustr
ativ
epu
rpos
es.T
heon
e-di
men
sion
alan
alyt
ical
equa
tion
heus
edto
com
pute
cont
amin
ant
trav
eltim
esin
adeq
uate
lyin
corp
orat
edth
ehe
tero
gene
ous.
natu
reof
the
glac
ialm
ater
ials
,con
verg
ing
thre
e-di
men
sion
alflo
wto
the
pum
ping
wel
ls,i
nduc
edin
filtr
atio
nfr
omth
eri
ver
and
wet
land
,le
akag
efr
ombe
droc
k,hy
drod
ynam
icdi
sper
sion
,spa
tial
and
tem
pora
lva
riat
ions
inre
char
ge,
and
tem
pora
lva
riat
ions
inpu
mpi
ngra
tes.
Bas
edon
thes
elim
itatio
ns,
Ibe
lieve
the
prob
abili
tyth
atth
isan
alys
isre
alis
tical
lyre
pres
ents
the
flow
syst
emw
hen
wel
lsG
&H
wer
ein
use
tobe
nom
ore
than
40%
(Fig
ure
5.6)
.T
he
Bea
tric
eex
pert
plot
ted
and
anal
ysed
the
wat
erle
vela
ndst
ream
flow
data
from
the
30-d
aypu
mpi
ngte
st.
He
cons
truc
ted
nom
odel
san
dm
ade
notr
avel
time
calc
ulat
ions
.Thi
san
alys
isin
adeq
uate
lyin
corp
orat
esth
eco
mpl
exit
yof
the
inte
ract
ion
betw
een
the
surf
ace-
wat
eran
dth
egr
ound
wat
erflo
wsy
stem
s.It
igno
res
the
thre
e-di
men
sion
alna
ture
ofth
egr
ound
wat
erflo
wsy
stem
crea
ted
byth
epa
rtia
lpe
netr
atio
nof
the
wel
lsan
dth
eri
ver.
By
rely
ing
sole
lyon
lim
ited
field
data
and
noti
ncor
pora
ting
hist
oric
dat
ain
toa
mod
elor
any
kind
,his
anal
ysis
inad
equa
tely
acco
unts
for
bedr
ock
leak
age,
aqui
fer
hete
roge
neity
,te
mpo
ral
and
spat
ial
vari
atio
nsin
re
char
ge,a
ndte
mpo
ralv
aria
tions
inpu
mpi
ngra
tes.
Ibe
lieve
the
prob
abili
tyth
atth
isco
ncep
tual
anal
ysis
real
isti
call
yre
pres
ents
the
flow
syst
embe
twee
n19
64an
d19
79to
bele
ssth
an25
%(F
igur
e5.
6).
The
W.R
.Gra
ceex
pert
used
the
avai
labl
ege
olog
ic,h
ydro
logi
can
dpu
mpi
ngd
ata
toco
nstr
uct
Tes
tim
ony
rrom
the
Wob
urn
Tox
icT
rial
show
sth
atpr
edic
tion
srr
omhy
drol
ogic
mod
els
wer
ece
ntra
lto
the
expe
rtop
inio
nspr
esen
ted
toth
eju
ry,w
here
asm
odel
cali
brat
ion
was
nota
maj
oris
sue
brou
ght
bero
reth
eju
ry(a
ltbo
ugh
itw
asdi
scus
sed
heat
edly
inde
posi
tion
san
ddu
ring
the
tria
lat
seve
ral
side
bars
betw
een
the
law
yers
and
the
judg
e).N
ow,f
ifte
enye
ars
afte
rth
etr
ial,
1be
lieve
mod
elca
libra
tion
wou
ldbe
anim
port
ant
part
ofth
edi
rect
exam
inat
ion
and
thecross~
exam
inat
ion
ofea
chex
pert
hydr
olog
ist.
Tod
ay,
the
met
hods
ofm
odel
cali
brat
ion
are
muc
hbe
tter
esta
blis
hed
and
know
nby
the
hydr
olog
icco
mm
unit
yth
anth
eyw
ere
then
.T
extb
ooks
(And
erso
nan
dW
oess
ner
1992
)an
dst
anda
rds
(Bro
wn
and
Laa
se19
95)
have
been
wri
tten
and
tbei
rin
flue
nce
onm
odel
ling
stud
ies
ispe
rvas
ive.
Phi
loso
phic
,pra
gmat
ican
dgu
idan
cear
ticl
esal
soha
vebe
enw
ritt
enab
outm
odel
cali
brat
ion
(Bre
dehe
enan
dK
onik
ow19
93;M
cCom
bie
and
McK
inle
y19
93;B
air
1994
;Ore
skes
etal
.19
94;W
oess
nera
ndA
nder
son
1996
)an
dth
ees
sent
ial
proc
edur
esus
edin
hydr
olog
icm
odel
ling
have
beco
me
part
ofth
era
bric
orou
rdis
cipl
ine.
Inth
ein
teri
m,
expe
rtw
itnes
ses
have
pass
edth
iskn
owle
dge
onto
thei
rla
wye
rs,
who
appe
arto
unde
rsta
ndth
ete
rms
and
tbe
met
hods
.Thi
sw
asno
ttru
ein
1986
whe
nth
eW
obur
nT
oxic
Tri
alto
okpl
ace.
Tod
ay,m
odel
cali
brat
ion
wou
ldbe
acr
itic
alpa
rto
rth
esc
ient
ific
met
hods
appl
ied
toth
eco
nstr
ucti
onor
apr
edi<
;tive
mod
elus
edby
ahy
drol
ogic
expe
rtw
itnes
s.A
ssuc
h,th
em
etho
dsus
edto
cali
brat
etb
em
odel
wou
ldpr
obab
lybe
eval
uate
dby
the
tria
ljud
geun
der
the
Dau
bert
5.6
CO
NC
LU
SIO
NS
atr
ansi
entt
hree
-dim
ensi
onal
num
eric
alD
owan
dtr
ansp
ortm
odel
ofth
ear
eath
atac
coun
ted
for
the
hete
roge
neou
sch
arac
ter
ofth
egl
acia
lm
ater
ials
,pa
rtia
lpe
netr
atio
nof
the
pum
ping
wel
lsan
dth
eri
ver,
bedr
ock
leak
age,
spat
iala
ndte
mpo
ralv
aria
tions
inre
char
ge,h
isto
ric
vari
atio
nsin
pum
ping
rate
s,by
drod
ynam
icdi
sper
sion
,an
dch
emic
alre
tard
atio
n.It
was
the
mos
tco
mpr
ehe
nsiv
ean
alys
isan
dth
em
osts
ophi
stic
ated
mod
el.T
hefl
owm
odel
was
cali
brat
edus
ing
two
sets
ofm
easu
red
wat
erle
vela
ndst
ream
flow
gain
/loss
data
.The
tran
spor
tm
odel
was
notc
alib
rate
d,al
thou
gha
sens
itivi
tyan
alys
isw
aspe
rfor
med
tode
tenn
ine
poss
ible
rang
esof
cont
amin
ant
arri
val
tim
esat
wel
lsG
&H
.T
his
mod
elin
corp
orat
edm
any
mor
eor
the
hydr
olog
icra
ctor
saf
fect
ing
surf
ace-
wat
eran
dgr
ound
wat
erD
owov
erth
eIS
-yea
rpe
riod
wel
lsG
&H
oper
ated
.T
hem
odel
also
incl
uded
mor
epa
ram
eter
san
dpr
oces
ses
and
few
erun
real
istic
assu
mpt
ions
than
the
othe
rap
proa
ches
.1
belie
veth
epr
obab
ilit
yis
abo
ut
75%
that
this
anal
ysis
repr
esen
tsth
eac
tual
beha
viou
roft
heflo
wsy
stem
duri
ngth
epe
riod
whe
nw
ells
G&
Hw
ere
oper
atin
g(F
igur
e5.
6). The
maj
ordi
ffic
ultie
sea
chof
the
hydr
olog
icex
pert
sfa
ced
inco
nstr
uctin
ga
relia
ble
hy.
drol
ogic
mod
elth
atco
uld
pred
ict
wat
erle
vels
,st
ream
ftow
san
dco
ntam
inan
tco
ncen
trat
ions
wer
eth
ela
ckof
hist
oric
sour
ceco
ncen
trat
ion
valu
esof
the
cont
amin
ants
and
the
lack
ofhi
stor
icw
ater
leve
l,st
ream
flow
chan
ge,a
ndch
emic
alco
ncen
trat
ion
mea
sure
men
tsth
atco
uld
beus
edas
calib
ratio
nta
rget
s.T
hesa
me
diff
icul
ties
exis
tto
day
for
rese
arch
ers
tryi
ngto
furt
her
unde
rsta
ndth
ehy
drol
ogy
orth
esi
te(M
yett
eet
al.
1987
;de
Lim
aan
dO
lim
pio
1989
;Met
heny
1999
).E
ven
thou
gha
soph
isti
cate
dm
odel
may
cali
brat
ere
ason
ably
wel
lto
the
avai
labl
eda
ta,
ther
ear
esi
nlpl
yin
adeq
uate
hist
oric
data
toen
able
the
prob
abili
tyof
are
liabl
ean
alys
isto
bem
uch
bett
erth
an70
to80
%.I
tis
the
lack
orhi
stor
icd
ata
and
tbe
unce
rtai
nty
prod
uced
ther
eby
that
mak
esw
orki
ngin
the
lega
lare
naso
chal
leng
ing.
From
the
view
poin
tof
scie
ntifi
cso
phis
tica
tion
,the
jury
'sve
rdic
tis
the
inve
rse
ofth
era
nkin
gsh
own
onF
igur
e5.
6-
Bea
tric
ew
asro
und
not
liab
lean
dW
.R.
Gra
cew
asro
und
liabl
e.T
hena
ggin
gqu
esti
ons
ror
law
yers
and
hydr
olog
ists
stud
ying
the
Wob
urn
Tox
icT
rial
isw
heth
erth
esc
ienc
eits
elfw
asto
oco
mpl
icat
edfo
rth
eju
dge
and
jury
,and
/or
whe
ther
the
pres
enta
tion
ofth
esc
ienc
ew
asto
oco
nfus
ing.
}P
lain
tiffs
}B
eatr
ice
}w.
R.G
race
0.75
Mod
els
inth
eC
ourt
room
7576
Mod
elV
alid
atio
n
ruli
ngan
dm
odel
cali
brat
ion
wou
ldun
doub
tedl
ybe
high
lysc
ruti
nise
dun
derc
ross
-exa
min
atio
n.M
odel
sw
illal
way
sbe
attr
acti
veto
ols
forl
awye
rsan
dex
pert
sto
conv
eyin
form
atio
nto
ajur
y.C
onti
nued
adva
nces
inim
age
proc
essi
ngan
dvi
sual
izat
ion
will
brin
gdi
gita
lani
mat
ion
ofm
odel
sim
ulat
ions
into
the
cour
troo
mw
ith
incr
easi
ngfr
eque
ncy
(Sta
ffor
d19
98).
Mod
els
synt
hesi
zefi
eld
dat
aan
din
corp
orat
eph
ysic
al.
chem
ical
and
biol
ogic
alpr
oces
ses
ina
man
ner
that
ad
dres
ses
the
caus
alre
lati
ons
that
mos
tle
gal
disp
utes
seek
tore
solv
e.M
odel
sca
nsi
mul
ate
the
unob
serv
edco
ndit
ions
that
occu
rred
atth
ecr
uxof
the
conf
lict
.Th
eab
ilit
yo
fhyd
rolo
gic
mod
els
tom
ake
reas
onab
lepr
edic
tion
so
ftb
ese
cond
itio
ns,b
owev
er,w
illal
way
sbe
depe
nden
ton
tbe
accu
racy
ofth
eco
ncep
tual
hydr
ogeo
logi
cfr
amew
ork
and
on
havi
ngsu
ffic
ient
hist
oric
dat
ato
assu
reth
eju
ryth
atth
em
odel
isa
real
isti
cre
pres
enta
tion
of
real
ity.
Wit
hout
hist
oric
data
,ri
goro
usca
libr
atio
no
ftb
em
odel
isno
tpo
ssib
lean
dth
eop
inio
nso
fexp
erts
are
vuln
erab
leto
alla
ckby
tbe
oppo
siti
on-
asw
ellt
bey
sbou
ldbe
.Tb
efo
llow
ing
stat
emen
tby
Hug
bG
reen
woo
d(1
989)
isw
orth
rem
embe
ring
wbe
nfo
rmul
atin
gex
pert
opin
ions
base
don
mod
elre
sult
s,'A
mod
elth
atha
sno
pred
icte
dte
stab
leco
nseq
uenc
esis
unve
rifi
able
and.
ifno
tus
eles
s.is
ster
ile.
'P
rese
ntat
ion
ofa
ster
ile
mod
elin
the
cour
t.be
fore
aju
dge
and
jury
,wit
hth
esp
ectr
eo
fvig
orou
scr
oss-
exam
inat
ion.
isn
ota
prud
entl
egal
stra
tegy
.S
cien
tist
san
den
gine
ers
need
tore
cogn
ise
tbat
the
lega
lsys
tem
inth
eU
nite
dS
tate
s.un
like
the
scie
ntif
icm
etho
d.is
no
tdes
igne
dto
find
the
trut
h.It
isde
sign
edto
reso
lve
conf
lict
s.T
hepr
imar
ypu
rpos
eof
aci
vil
tria
lis
toen
da
disp
ute.
Man
yby
drol
ogis
tsw
bote
stif
yin
cour
tar
edi
sapp
oint
edby
the
expe
rien
ce,p
erha
psth
isis
beca
use
thei
rex
peri
ence
dem
onst
rate
sth
atth
ele
gal
syst
emca
nn
ot
alta
inth
esa
me
goal
astb
esc
ient
ific
met
hod.
As
stat
edby
Fed
eral
Judg
eL
ynn
N.
Hug
hes
(199
9),'
Whe
no
ur
lega
lsy
stem
wor
ksat
its
best
,the
cour
tsol
ves
tbe
prob
lem
bya
proc
ess
tbat
resp
ects
the
lega
lcon
vent
ions
,hon
ors
tbe
idea
loft
ruth
,inc
orpo
rate
sth
efo
rce
ofr
easo
n,re
cogn
izes
the
dign
ity
of
the
part
icip
ants
,an
dac
cept
sth
ene
cess
ity
ofa
deci
sion
.'
REF
EREN
CES
Ann
eA
nder
son
etal
.v.
Cry
ovac
.D
ivis
ion
or
W.R
.G
race
&C
ompa
ny;
W.R
.G
race
&C
ompa
ny;
John
J.R
iley
Div
isio
no
rBea
tric
eFo
ods.
,Inc
.;B
eatr
ice
Foo
ds,I
nc.;
Uni
ted
Sta
tes
Dis
tric
tCou
rtro
rth
eD
istr
ict
orM
assa
chus
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ppli
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Sim
ulat
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