1

MEXICO ENERGY OUTLOOK

RAFAEL ALEXANDRI RIONDA

GENERAL DIRECTOR FOR ENERGY PLANNING AND INFORMATION

Ku-Maloob-Zaap & Ayatsil-

Tekel

Cantarell

Explotation (without Ku-

Maloob-Zaap, Cantarell,

Lakach and ATG)

Aceite Terciario del Golfo

Exploration (without deep

waters)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Expected crude oil production

(kbd)

To refineries in Mexico

Exports

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Expected crude oil exports

(kbd)

Crude oil production and exports are expected to

increase as a result of the recent Energy Reform

2014

Bids (rounds) Export from

private parties

Source: SENER

Petroleum products demand by Sector

(kbd)

2013 2028

Regarding oil demand, it is expected that transport

sector will remain as the most important

Transport 1,058.9

Power 224.0

Industry 90.7

Oil 51.2

Transport 1,774.8

Power 37.3

Industry 121.2

Oil 26.0

Source: SENER

Where: 2013 2028

Transport sector 1,058.9 1,774.8

Automotive 972.2 1,612.7

Rail 12.7 25.3

Marine 13.8 20.8

Air 60.2 116.1

Power 224.0 37.3

Public generation 201.2 16.7

Private electricity generation 22.8 20.6

Gasoline and diesel demand, imports,

and production keep on growing

Diesel demand, imports and

production

(kbd)

Gasoline demand, imports and production

(kbd)

Even with the additional coking

capacity in the existing refineries,

imports will raise due to demand

increase.

107159 171

7284

84 106 131126 139

139

101 12298 116 136

313.4

257.5 253.9

370.2 377.8 399.4 395.4 387.2

408.4 412.9 432.8

486.5 485.6

530.4 531.8 528.1

414 417 425442

462483

501518

535552

572588

608628

648 664

26 38 40 16 18 17 21 25 24 25 24 17 2016 18 21

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Imports Production Demand Imports share (%)

358 334 336272 291 328 371 388 444

503531

517 567564 604 629

425.1 442.8 436.7

508.9 517.4 513.1 508.9 521.3 515.4 514.9 549.1

603.5 603.4 650.7 650.1 650.5

788 776 773 781809

841880

910960

1,0181,080

1,1201,170

1,2151,254 1,279

45 43 44 35 36 39 42 43 46 49 49 46 4846 48 49

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Imports Production Demand Imports share (%)

Source: SENER

Natural gas production and imports

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Natural gas production (mmcfd)

In 2028, Pemex

expected natural gas

production will be 5,231

mmcfd, and private

parties will account

2,516 mmcfd.

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Natural gas imports (mmcfd)

LNG Pipeline

Natural gas imports by

pipeline will increase from

1,756 mmcfd in 2013 to 4,524

mmcfd in 2028 (258%).

LNG imports will decrease

almost 90%.

Private

Pemex

Source: SENER

Natural Gas foreign commerce by

interconnection points

Interconnection points 2013

Total Imports 2,516.6

Imports by pipeline 1,755.5

1. Mexicali, BC.

21.3

2. Los Algodones, BC.

255.2

3. Nogales, Son.

0.9

4. Naco, Son.

72.5

5. Naco, Son.

44.6

6. Agua Prieta, Son.

11.4

7. Ciudad Juárez, Chih.

308.8

8. Ciudad Acuña, Coah.

1.2

9. Piedras Negras, Coah.

19.1

10. Ciudad Mier, Tamps.

370.5

11. Argüelles, Tamps. (Kinder

Morgan)

208.9

12. Reynosa, Tamps. (Tetco)

24.7

13. Reynosa, Tamps. (Tennessee

Gas, PMX)

202.0

14. Reynosa, Tamps. (Tennessee

Gas, RB)3

214.4

LNG Imports

761.1

16. Altamira, Tamps.

356.8

17. Ensenada, BC.

34.0

18. Manzanillo, Col.

370.3

Total exports

12.4

Ciudad Morelos, BC.

9.3

Reynosa, Tamps.

3.1

More than 50% of natural

gas total imports are

through Tamaulipas.

Pemex

Private

Import points

Export points

Import and

export points

MANZANILLO

Naco

Mexicali

Argüelles

Los Algodones

Nogales

Agua Prieta

Cd. Juarez

Cd. Acuña

Piedras Negras

Ciudad Mier- Monterrey

Reynosa-

Tennessee

Reynosa-Tetco

ENSENADA

Cd. Morelos

ALTAMIRA

Source: SENER

New infrastructure: Natural gas pipelines

Current natural gas pipelines

New pipelines considered in

The National Infraestructure

Program

Natural gas pipelines network is

projected to almost double fold in

extension. This will increase the

capacity for imports from the United

States.

Source: Cenagas

Tuxpan

Tula

V. Reyes

Guadalajara

Aguascalientes

La Laguna

El Encino Texas

Naranjos

Durango

Cempoala

Los

Ramones

Presidio/Ojinaga

Jáltipan

Salina

Cruz

Mérida Cancún

Tapachula

Lázaro

Cárdenas

Acapulco

Los

Algodones San Luis Río

Colorado

Escobedo

Ehrenberg

San Isidro

Colombia

Sásabe

Samalayuca

Brownsville

Nueces

Waha

Oil

2,272

Industrial

1,240

Electric

3,323

Residential

87

Service

28

Auto

transport

2

Oil

2,456

Industrial

2,630

Electric

6,345

Residential

116

Service

46 Auto

transport

3

2013

6,952

2028

11,595

Expected natural gas demand, 2028

Natural gas demand in

the electricity and

industrial sectors will

double.

Gas demand by consumption sector

(mmcfd)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

mmcfd

Demand

Production

Source: SENER

Electric sector goals

Clean generation percentage in the total generation

Source: Ley para el Aprovechamiento de Energías Renovables y el Financiamiento de la Transición Energética (LAERFTE) y Dictamen de la

Ley de Transición Energética, publicado en el DOF el 14 de diciembre de 2014.

2012

≈14%

2021

30%

2024

35%

2012

≈17%

2018

≈25%

2050

50%

2030

40%

• Any fossil fuel based plant that has carbon capture and storage technology.

• Hydro.

• Nuclear.

• Any renewable energy source (wind, solar, bioenergy, among others).

• Efficient cogeneration (the term applies to cogeneration plants that comply with

the Energy Regulatory Commission definition).

Clean generation includes the following generation technologies:

Installed generation capacity

• In 2029 natural gas based technologies

will account for 47%.

Electricity sector

Combined cycle 35.6%

Conventional thermal 20.1%

Hydro 19.0%

Coal 8.2%

Turbogas 7.3%

Wind 3.1% Nuclear

2.1%

Internal combustion

2.0%

Geothermal 1.2%

Fluidizide bed 0.9%

Bioenergy 0.3%

Solar 0.1%

Combined cycle 43.4%

Hydro 16.2%

Wind 12.7%

Cogeneration 6.8%

Nuclear 5.2% Coal

3.7%

Turbogas 3.3%

Conventional thermal 2.9%

Geothermal 2.1%

Solar 1.7%

Combustión Interna 1.2%

Fluidizide bed 0.5%

Bioenergy 0.3%

2029

110,443 MW

2014

65,451 MW • Clean energy will account for 38% of the

total capacity in 2029.

• There is a mayor reduction of the

conventional thermal capacity (20% to

3%).

Source: Prodesen

Total generation by source

2014-2029

• Phase out of generation plants that use fuel oil, replacing them with natural gas plants.

• A rapid increase in the share of renewables.

• Increase the share of nuclear generation.

The key elements in order to achieve the target of greenhouse gases

reduction are:

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029

GW

h

Natural gas

Diesel Fuel oil Coal

Uranium

Hydro

Wind

Geothermal

Solar

Biofuels

Source: Prodesen

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029

Gross consumption AAGR= 3.5%

0

100

200

300

400

500

Gross consumption AAGR= 2.7%

GDP AAGR (2014-2028)= 4.0%GDP AAGR (2004-2014)= 2.6%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029

Gross consumption growth rate GDP (2008 prices) growth rate

Gross consumption AAGR= 3.5%

0

100

200

300

400

500

Gross consumption AAGR= 2.7%

GDP AAGR (2014-2028)= 4.0%GDP AAGR (2004-2014)= 2.6%

Electricity sales and GDP

2014-2029

Electricity consumption has shown a strong correlation with GDP, this trend is

expected to keep on towards the future.

GWh Growth rate

(%)

Source: Prodesen

Electricity gross

consumption

500

7.0% 500

AAGR: Annual Average Growth Rate

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