metro vehicles global market trends - sci verkehr · 2018-01-22 · metro vehicles – global...

Annexe C

2017

METRO VEHICLES– GLOBAL MARKET TRENDS

Forecast, Installed Base, Suppliers, Infrastructure and Rolling Stock Projects

Extract from the study

© SCI Verkehr GmbH • www.sci.de • Metro Vehicles - Global Market Trends 2

METRO VEHICLES – GLOBAL MARKET TRENDS

Forecast, Installed Base, Suppliers, Infrastructure and Rolling Stock Projects

This study entitled “Metro Vehicles – Global Market Trends” provides comprehensive insight into the structure, fleets, volumes and development trends of the worldwide market for metro vehicles.

Urbanisation, the increasing mobility of people and climate change are resulting in an increased demand for efficient and modern public transport systems. Metro transport represents such an environmentally friendly mode which has become increasingly important in the last few years. Based on current developments, this Multi Client Study delivers an analysis and well-founded estimate of the market for metro vehicles and network development.

This is the sixth, updated edition of SCI Verkehr’s study analysing the global market for metro vehicles.

All in all, the study provides a well-founded analysis of the worldwide market for metro vehicles. This study further provides complete, crucial and differentiated information on this vehicle segment which is important for the operational and strategic planning of players in the transport and railway industry.

In concrete terms, this market study of metro vehicles includes:

A regionally differentiated look at the worldwide market for metro vehicles including an in-depth analysis of all important markets of the individual countries. Network length, installed base and average vehicle age in 2016 of all cities operating a metro system are provided

An overview of the most important drivers behind the procurement and refurbishment of metro vehicles in the individual regions

A comprehensive analysis of the current fleet stocks concerning quantities and age structures as well as future procurement potential up to 2022. An analysis of the current market shares of important manufacturers as well as a forecast of future vehicle requirements of customers up to 2022

A worldwide presentation of metro systems, future infrastructure projects and forecast of network development up to 2030

An overview of metro vehicle manufacturers including a brief description of their current range of products and services as well as production capacities

A condensed presentation of the most important fleet-specific features of metro vehicles of all countries presented in detail and regions in the form of diagrams

A list of all vehicle stocks of metro operators in the annexe to the study

The market study is based on numerous sources of information from the press and discussions with experts, which are continuously analysed, evaluated and entered into the SCI Database.

The study is available in English starting April 2017.

SCI Verkehr GmbH is an independent consultancy company specialising in the technology and economics of transport. We have close connections to the rail industry, with consultants in a wide range of specialist fields. We have an extensive network of experts in Germany and abroad and we specialise in market and strategy aspects for the mobility sector. Our activities focus on companies in the transport and rail industry, logistics, public and private transport companies and transport and economics departments in public administration at federal, regional and municipal level

Ann Kathrin Arntz Head of Marketing and Sales Phone: +49 221 93178 20 Fax: +49 221 93178 78 Email: [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]



CONTENTS

1 Executive Summary: The World Market for Metro Vehicles Fehler! Textmarke nicht definiert.

2 Objective of the Study and Delimitation of the Railway MarketFehler! Textmarke nicht definiert.

2.1 Objective of the Market Analysis ........................................... Fehler! Textmarke nicht definiert.

2.2 Delimitation of the Rail Market............................................... Fehler! Textmarke nicht definiert.

3 Market Analysis Methodology ............................................. Fehler! Textmarke nicht definiert.

3.1 SCI Forecasting Tool ............................................................. Fehler! Textmarke nicht definiert.

3.2 After-Sales Market Forecast .................................................. Fehler! Textmarke nicht definiert.

4 The Market for Metro Vehicles in Western Europe ............. Fehler! Textmarke nicht definiert.

4.1 Total Market ........................................................................... Fehler! Textmarke nicht definiert.

4.2 Germany ................................................................................ Fehler! Textmarke nicht definiert.

4.3 France ................................................................................... Fehler! Textmarke nicht definiert.

4.4 United Kingdom .................................................................... Fehler! Textmarke nicht definiert.

4.5 Italy ........................................................................................ Fehler! Textmarke nicht definiert.

4.6 Spain ..................................................................................... Fehler! Textmarke nicht definiert.

5 The Market for Metro Vehicles in Eastern Europe .............. Fehler! Textmarke nicht definiert.


5.2 Turkey .................................................................................... Fehler! Textmarke nicht definiert.

5.3 Czech Republic ..................................................................... Fehler! Textmarke nicht definiert.

6 The Market for Metro Vehicles in Asia ................................ Fehler! Textmarke nicht definiert.


6.2 China ..................................................................................... Fehler! Textmarke nicht definiert.

6.3 India ....................................................................................... Fehler! Textmarke nicht definiert.

6.4 Japan ..................................................................................... Fehler! Textmarke nicht definiert.

6.5 South Korea ........................................................................... Fehler! Textmarke nicht definiert.

7 The Market for Metro Vehicles in North America ................ Fehler! Textmarke nicht definiert.

8 The Market for Metro Vehicles in South and Central AmericaFehler! Textmarke nicht definiert.

9 The Market for Metro Vehicles in the CIS............................ Fehler! Textmarke nicht definiert.

10 The Market for Metro Vehicles in Africa/the Middle East ... Fehler! Textmarke nicht definiert.

11 The Market for Metro Vehicles in Australia/Pacific ............. Fehler! Textmarke nicht definiert.



ANNEX

1 Annex A ................................................................................ Fehler! Textmarke nicht definiert.

2 Annex B: Factsheets of major metro vehicle manufacturersFehler! Textmarke nicht definiert.

3 Annex C: Overview of metro fleets ...................................... Fehler! Textmarke nicht definiert.

4 Annex D: Automated Guided Vehicles operating ................ Fehler! Textmarke nicht definiert.



5. The Market for Metro Vehicles Asia

5.1 Total Market

Market Overview

Figure 1: Market Overview in Asia

The Asian metro vehicle market will remain at a very high level, but will not grow further over next five years. Despite the fact that the market will not grow in medium-term, it remains the most important region of the world, as more than half of the world market size is currently made up by Asia. Market environment/infrastructure development Urban rail is a strong growth sector in Asia. Transport performance doubled between 2005 and 2012 and is expected to double again until 2020, reaching 434 billion pkm. While China and India showed constant growth, the Japanese and South Korean urban rail sectors suffered in 2008-2009. The largest regional markets are China, Japan and South Korea. More recently, India started to develop its urban rail systems and is expected to register the second highest growth rate after China. [….] New metro systems or lines are being planned and built in China and India as well as in Bangladesh, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and

Vietnam. Japan already has efficient mass transit transport systems in its metropolises. As

the new development of metro systems is very cost-intensive, many countries place a great deal of value on public-private partnership as a method of financing. In addition, it is worth mentioning that planned new development projects in countries that are financially weaker are often implemented with a time delay or fail to be implemented.

Asia Metro Trend

Cars 2016 49.000

Average development 2016-2021 (p. a.) 11.4%

Average age 2016 (in years) 9.5

Average volume 2015-2017 (EUR million p. a.) 4.750

Average development 2016-2021 (p. a.) -0.2%

Volatility market volume 2016-2021 (SAW) 15.2%

Average volume 2015-2017 (EUR million p. a.) 1.650

Average development 2016-2021 (p. a.) 7.8%

Volatility market volume 2016-2021 (SAW) 17.3%

Boom/Strong Growth Small Growth Stagnation Small Decrease Clear Decline

Volume: > +5%p.a. +2 to +5% p.a. 0 to +2% p.a. -2 to 0% p.a. <-2% p.a.

Installed base: > +1.5%p.a. +0.5 to +1.5% p.a. -0.5 to +0.5% p.a. -1.5 to -0.5% p.a. <-1.5% p.a.

Insta

lled

Base

Mark

et

Fo

r

New

Veh

icle

s

Mark

et

Fo

r

Aft

er

Sale

s



Figure 2: Metro systems and new development and upgrade projects in Asia

The route network in Asia will grow at rapid speed. Even in the downside scenario, SCI Verkehr expects the network to more than double between 2016 and 2026. The downside scenario is based on the fact that the municipalities cannot implement their upgrade plans due to their relatively weak financial position (e.g. in countries such as Vietnam, Thailand and some Indian cities as well as financially weak Chinese municipalities).

Figure 3: Metro network in operation – network development Asia

[….]

6

21

85

26

33

35

4248

63

66

69

70

71

44

5

23

17

543

40

45

55

56

59

72

73

74

75

77

15

80

84

89

95

96

34

2

7

8

9

11

12

13

16

2225

27

31

29

1

36 39

41

43

49

53

58

65

67

79

86

90

9293

28

8219

24

30

4

46

61

50

6278

91

83

1 Ahmedabad2 Bangalore3 Bangkok4 Baotou5 Beijing

6 Busan7 Chandigarh8 Changchun9 Changsha10 Changzhou

11 Chengdu12 Chennai13 Chongqing14 Colombo15 Daegu

16 Dalian17 Delhi18 Dhaka19 Dongguan20 Foshan21 Fukuoka22 Fuzhou23 Guangzhou24 Guiyang25 Gurgaon26 Gwangju27 Hangzhou28 Hanoi29 Harbin30 Hefei31 Ho Chi Minh City32 Hohhot33 Hong Kong34 Hyderabad35 Incheon36 Jaipur37 Jakarta38 Jinan39 Kanpur40 Kaohsiung41 Kawasaki42 Kobe43 Kochi44 Kolkata45 Kuala Lumpur46 Kunming47 Kunshan48 Kyoto

49 Lakhnau

50 Lanzhou51 Luoyang52 Ludhiana53 Macao54 Manila

55 Mumbai56 Nagoya57 Nagpur58 Nanchang59 Nanjing

60 Nanning61 Nantong62 Ningbo63 Osaka64 Patna / Danapur

65 Pune66 Pyongyang67 Qingdao68 Quanzhou69 Sapporo70 Sendai71 Seo-gu Daejeon72 Seoul73 Shanghai74 Shenyang75 Shenzhen76 Shijazhuang77 Singapore78 Suzhou79 Taichung80 Taipei81 Taiyuan82 Taoyuan83 Thane84 Tianjin85 Tokio86 Uijeongbu87 Urumqi88 Varanesi89 Wuhan90 Wuxi91 Xiamen92 Xian93 Xuzhou94 Yantai95 Yokohama96 Yong-In97 Zhengzhou

Metro systems in operation

Complete new systems (Start of construction before 2025)

Metro systems in operation, expected to

expand by more than 5 km in the period 2017-2025

2060

18

32

10

38

51

57

64

88

37

14

52

68

81

87

94

97

47

76

© SCI Verkehr GmbH

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Metro system in operation [km]Asia

Base Case Downside Case Upside Case© SCI Verkehr GmbH

Forecast



Countries not among those considered in detail in this study have the following important current and planned infrastructure projects:

Country City Project Title Distance in km Expected completion

Project status

Bangladesh Dhaka Line 6 20.1 2024 Construction

Indonesia Jakarta (1) North-South corridor phase 1 (Lebak Bulus - Bundaran Hl / city centre)

15.7 2018 Construction

[..] [..] [..] [..] [..] [..]

© SCI Verkehr GmbH

[….] Installed base/age structure With about xx operated metro cars, Asia has the largest fleet in the world. The fleet has grown considerably through procurements in China in the last few years. Japan and South Korea also have comprehensive installed bases in Tokyo and Seoul.

Figure 4: Installed base Asia 2016

Top 10 cities for metro:

Rank Country City

Number of metro units/cars 2016 (rounded) Average age

2016

Route length in km 2016

Units Cars

1 China Beijing xx xx 3 574

2 China Shanghai xx xx 16 637

3 South Korea Seoul xx xx 18 356

[..] [..] [..] [..] [..] [..]

10 Malaysia Kuala Lumpur xx xx 22 79

© SCI Verkehr GmbH

[…]

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000

Philippines

Thailand

North Korea

Malaysia

Taiwan

Singapore

India

Japan

South Korea

China

Installed Base [Number of cars]Asia

© SCI Verkehr GmbH

Bestandsübersicht HGV-Züge Osteuropa 2008 (Anzahl Units)



The Asian fleet ,on average, is only 10 years old. Between 2012 and 2016, xx metro cars were delivered to Asian cities. In China alone, nearly xx metro cars were delivered between 2012 and 2016. Old fleet, which exceeds its economical efficient life time, is mainly operated in North and South Korea, Hong Kong and Japan.

Figure 5: Age structure

[…] Manufacturers/Market Shares In the last five years, the Asian market was dominated by CRRC from the leading Chinese market. After the merger of CSR and CNR, CRRC has more than 80% market share in this region. Besides China and countries in South East Asia, where Chinese players have traditionally a strong positioning, CRRC is increasing its market share in India. Within 2012-2016, CRRC delivered to the following cities outside China: Kuala Lumpur, Lahore, Greater Noida, Singapore, Mumbai, Bangkok and for the Rapid Metro Rail Gurgaon in Delhi. CRRC has now 5 subsidiaries producing metro vehicles: Sifang, Zhuzhou, Nanjing Puzhen, Changchun and Dalian.



Figure 6: Market shares: manufacturers Asia

[…] Market volume and market development The current market volume for metro vehicles in Asia is around EUR xx million per year, for after-sales services, around EUR xx million. This market development is influenced by the following drivers:

Driver Brief description Relevance Trend

New development and upgrade of infrastructure

Asian cities have been heavily investing in new metro

infrastructures since recent years, especially China, followed by

India and other countries. Investments will continue in the

medium-term at a very high level.

Fleet structure Requirements for replacing vehicles which have reached an age of 30 to 45 years, mainly in Hong Kong, Japan and South Korea

Investment funds

Stable economic situation in the important countries of China, India, Japan and South Korea. There is financial support by international organisations for the Asian countries that are

financially weaker.

Transport demand Reduction of CO2 emissions as well as climate-friendly transport systems are of high political priority in the important countries of Japan, South Korea and China. China in particular is becoming

increasingly aware of its pollution problem.

Environment and sustainability

Increasing numbers of metropolitan areas and more traffic jams on the roads will increase the transport demand in the metropolises. Many cities with more than 1 million inhabitants still have no mass transport system.

Relevance for procurements: = very high, = high, = medium, = low, = none

5-year trend: = strongly increasing, = increasing, = constant, = decreasing = strongly decreasing

© SCI Verkehr GmbH

[…] The following chapters specifically include the important current and future vehicle procurements of the countries considered in detail.

CRRC81%

Hyundai Rotem

4%

Bombardier 3%

Alstom2%

Kawasaki2% BEML

2%

Others6%

Manufacturers' market share 2012-2016[Number of Cars] Asia

In total:

~ 19 500 Cars

© SCI Verkehr GmbH



[…] Countries not among those considered in detail in this study have the following important current and planned procurement projects:

Country/ city Units Cars Vehicle type/line Delivery Comment

Bangladesh / Dhaka

24 6 New system first line

2019-2024

A tender to pre-qualify bidders for a contract to supply 24 six-car metros was published on 31st January 2015. The estimated cost of the procurement has to be approved by the Dhaka Metro Rail authority and Japan

International Cooperative Agency (Jica) which is helping in funding the project. Construction works on the first metro line linking Uttara, Agargaon, Farmgate and

Motijheel have started in December 2015. Completion of the first section from Uttara to Agargaon is scheduled for December 2019 while the entire project should be

completed by 2024.

Taiwan / Taichung

36 2 Green line, medium capacity transit (MCT)

2015-2017

Kawasaki Heavy Industries signed a contract jointly with Alstom Transport and CTCI Corporation of Taiwan to provide the Department of Rapid Transit Systems, Taipei City Government (DORTS) with a railway system for the

Taichung City Government. The contract is valued at around EUR 330 million (TWD 10.9 billion), with design and construction of the electrical and mechanical

system package scheduled for completion by October 2017.

[..] [..] [..] [..] [..] [..]

[..] [..] [..] [..] [..]

© SCI Verkehr GmbH

[..]



Annexe B

Region Country Operator City Vehicle

type / Line Cars

Delivery

from

Delivery

to

Main

supplier

Asia China Beijing

Subway Beijing

Type DK16,

Line 2 168 1986 1989 CNR

Asia China Beijing

Subway Beijing

Type DKZ4,

Line 1 186 1995 1999 CNR

Asia China Beijing

Subway Beijing

Type DK32-

34, Line 13

(Airport

Line)

240 2005 2007 CNR

Asia China Beijing

Subway Beijing

Type ART

MK II 40 2006 2007

Bombardi

er

Asia China Beijing

Subway Beijing

Lines 1 and

4 (Daxing

Line)

318 2006 2009 CSR

Asia China Beijing

Subway Beijing

Lines 1,

8,10, 15,

Fanshan

Line

914 2006 2012 CNR

Asia China Beijing

Subway Beijing Line 5 204 2007 2008 CNR

Asia China Beijing

Subway Beijing

Type Metro-

polis 84 2007 2008 Alstom

Asia China Beijing

Subway Beijing

Type B, Line

2 288 2009 2012 CSR

Asia China Beijing

Subway Beijing

Changpin

Line 162 2009 2011 CSR

Asia China Beijing

Subway Beijing

Line 15,

Phase 1 180 2009 2010 CNR

Asia China Beijing

Subway Beijing

Type B, Yiz-

huang Line,

Lines 9 and

10

528 2010 2013 CNR

Asia China Beijing

Subway Beijing

Type B, Line

6, Phase 1 512 2011 2012 CNR

Asia China Beijing

Subway Beijing Line 8 198 2011 2013 CSR

Asia China Beijing

Subway Beijing Line 5 132 2011 2012 CNR

Asia China Beijing

Subway Beijing Line 1 114 2011 2011 CSR

……………..



Annexe C

Hyundai Rotem

Overview

Head Office: 37 Cheoldobakmulgwan-ro, Uiwang-si, Gyeonggi-do, South Korea

Website: www.hyundai-rotem.co.kr

Shareholders: 43.4% Hyundai Motors, 24.8% Morgan Stanley (MSPE Metro-Investment AB), 31.8% others

Management: Kim Seung-Tack (CEO)

Employees (2015): 3 800

Turnover (2015): EUR 2.6 billion (KRW 3 309 billion)

Profit (2015): EUR -244 million (KRW -304 billion; net profit)

Hyundai Rotem is one of East Asia’s main rolling stock manufacturers. Rotem became part of Hyundai Motor Group (HMG) in 2001. With regard to its rolling stock activities, the company produces a wide range of rolling stock including high-speed rail (KTX) and seeks turnkey E&M (Electrical & Mechanical) projects that include relevant electrical equipment and signal

systems. Hyundai Rotem is the largest rail industry company in the South Korean market and is represented in all vehicle segments. It also manufactures magnetically levitated vehicles (MAGLEVs). Hyundai Rotem generates around 45% of its total sales (2015) by supplying rolling stock and related services. Other activities are the defence as well as the plant & machinery

business.

[….]

Facilities and co-operations

Hyundai Rotem owns sites in South Korea, Turkey, USA, and Brazil. Hyundai consolidates its rolling stock production at the Changwon site and manufactures EMUs and passenger coaches for the American commuter transport market at its US site. Its newly established site in Brazil assembles EMUs and metros.

– In March 2016, Hyundai Rotem has completed the construction of its rolling stock assembly plant in Araraquara, Brazil.

The facility with an area of 150,000 m2 is Hyundai Rotem’s third factory outside Korea. It will produce 30 eight-car EMU’s

ordered by suburban operator CPTM in 2013 for EUR 197.3 million (BRL 788 million), as well as 136 metro cars for

Salvador.

– [….]

Sites of final assembly for metro vehicles

Country Site Products Remarks

Korea Changwon E-loco, D-loco, HST, EMU, DMU, Metro, PC, LRV, engineering

Production capacity: 800 cars and locomotives p.a.

Employees: ~1000

Turkey Adapazari EMU, Metro, LRV, PC, HST, E-loco

EURotem Joint Venture with TCDD

Production capacity: 100 cars p.a., 50 locomotives p.a.

Employees: ~ 150

Brazil Araraquara EMU, Metro, LRV Production capacity: 200 p.a

Employees: 200, target: 300

Product segments

Segment Important products

Market shares (2012–2016)

Market positioning

Metro -

100% (South Korea)

40% (India)

10% (SA)

4% (AS)

4% (EE)

4% (WW)

[….]

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metro vehicles global market trends - sci verkehr · 2018-01-22 · metro vehicles – global...

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