Metro Center-NHMetro Center-NHand Greater Manchester Region Developmentand Greater Manchester Region Development

Ross GittellRoss GittellJames R Carter ProfessorJames R Carter Professor

University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire

May 23, 2007May 23, 2007

Metro Center-NHMetro Center-NH The Hub of the New Hampshire EconomyThe Hub of the New Hampshire Economy

New Hampshire has relatively ..New Hampshire has relatively .. high per capita income and educational attainment high per capita income and educational attainment

-- both in top ten nationally-- both in top ten nationally Low poverty rates Low poverty rates -- the lowest in the nation-- the lowest in the nation Low income disparity Low income disparity -- third lowest in the country-- third lowest in the country Strong economy compared to other states in Strong economy compared to other states in

Northeast Northeast -- strongest performer in New England-- strongest performer in New England High social capital High social capital – among the top ranked– among the top ranked

New England Economic Partnership Spring 2007 ForecastNew England Economic Partnership Spring 2007 Forecast Gross State Product Average Annual GrowthGross State Product Average Annual Growth: 2006-11 : 2006-11

NH leading region in growth, only state in region expected to grow at US averageNH leading region in growth, only state in region expected to grow at US average

Average Annual Change: 2006-2011 Gross State Product (Bil.00$)

2.9 2.92.8

2.6

1.9

2.3

2.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

US NH CT MA VT ME RI

Total EmploymentTotal Employment average annual growth forecast. average annual growth forecast. New Hampshire leading region in growth. New Hampshire leading region in growth.

Only state in the region expected to grow at the US ave, Maine & VT lowest growthOnly state in the region expected to grow at the US ave, Maine & VT lowest growth

Average Annual Change: 2006-2011 Employment (Thous.)

1.31.2

1.2

0.90.7

0.80.9

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

NH US RI CT MA VT ME

Some Economic Some Economic concernsconcerns The recent slowing of overall economic and The recent slowing of overall economic and

employment growth in the New England region employment growth in the New England region and New Hampshireand New Hampshire

Aging of the population, slow growth in total Aging of the population, slow growth in total population and decline of young adult population population and decline of young adult population in New England and the state in New England and the state

Increased income disparity …more pronounced Increased income disparity …more pronounced increase in the NE region and NH than the increase in the NE region and NH than the national averagenational average

Geographic income disparity within the state.. Geographic income disparity within the state.. Only 2 (of 10 counties) have above NH average Only 2 (of 10 counties) have above NH average per capita income and educational attainmentper capita income and educational attainment

The ten states with the lowest HH income inequality The ten states with the lowest HH income inequality in 2004 and their change in rank 1989-2004. in 2004 and their change in rank 1989-2004.

NH low disparity, 1989-04 experienced greatest increased disparity of low rankingNH low disparity, 1989-04 experienced greatest increased disparity of low ranking

State Gini (HH Income 2004)

Gini Change 1989-04

Rank Gini Change

1 Wyoming 0.402 0.001 502 Utah 0.406 0.020 353 New Hampshire 0.409 0.034 134 Alaska 0.412 0.033 165 Idaho 0.414 0.005 476 Iowa 0.416 0.011 447 Wisconsin 0.417 0.021 308 Hawaii 0.417 0.021 319 Nebraska 0.422 0.014 40

10 Montana 0.425 0.012 43

Income Geographic Disparity in NH. Hillsborough one of only 2 Income Geographic Disparity in NH. Hillsborough one of only 2 NH counties with above the state average per capita income NH counties with above the state average per capita income

NH Counties: Higher Education and IncomeNH Counties: Higher Education and Income Percentage of Population Over 25 w/ Bachelor Degree or Higher vs. Per Capita Income (2000)

Strafford (26.4%, $27140)

Cheshire (26.6%, $28217)

Carroll (26.5%, $30423)

Belknap (23.3%, $30082)

Grafton (32.7%, $31338)

Merrimack (29.1%, 30907)

NH (28.6%, $33398)

Rockingham (30.1%, $36016)

Hillsborough (31.7%, $38483)

Sullivan (19.7%, $27671)

Coos (11.9%, $25242)

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

% With Bachelors Degree

Per C

apita

Inco

me

Manchester PMSA Employment Growth….

The highest growth over last decade+ has been in Information, Education & Health Services, other Services, and Leisure & Hospitality. Fastest growing sector over the last year is Business Services…

   Hillsborough Leading IndustriesHillsborough Leading Industries Employment Employment #of Ests#of Ests Average Qtr Average Qtr Income Income

Employment Employment ConcentrationConcentration

Emp Change Emp Change 2002-062002-06 Wage ChangeWage Change

11 Electronic instrument manufacturingElectronic instrument manufacturing 6,5516,551 4040 20,19820,198 14.614.6 16.2%16.2% 4.9%4.9%

22 Computer system design & related servicesComputer system design & related services 2,9402,940 448448 21,95521,955 2.22.2 30.2%30.2% 4.5%4.5%

33 Insurance agencies, brokerages, and relatedInsurance agencies, brokerages, and related 1,9191,919 232232 17,93717,937 2.12.1 3.3%3.3% 21.5%21.5%

44 Services to buildings and dwellingsServices to buildings and dwellings 3,1523,152 388388 5,8815,881 1.61.6 20.1%20.1% 0.0%0.0%

55 Securities and commodity contracts brokerageSecurities and commodity contracts brokerage 3,0793,079 5252 20,10520,105 5.95.9 38.0%38.0% -11.9%-11.9%

66 Full-service restaurantsFull-service restaurants 6,8056,805 291291 4,0744,074 1.51.5 0.5%0.5% -1.4%-1.4%

77 Employment servicesEmployment services 3,9503,950 9898 8,6998,699 1.11.1 11.0%11.0% 12.0%12.0%

88 Offices of physiciansOffices of physicians 3,7323,732 243243 17,44117,441 1.71.7 10.8%10.8% -3.0%-3.0%

99 Limited-service eating placesLimited-service eating places 5,6385,638 405405 3,1603,160 1.41.4 12.5%12.5% -7.9%-7.9%

1010 Management of companies and enterprisesManagement of companies and enterprises 2,1512,151 8282 14,72714,727 1.21.2 19.3%19.3% -4.1%-4.1%

1111 Legal servicesLegal services 1,9731,973 281281 16,09216,092 1.61.6 2.2%2.2% 1.8%1.8%

1212 Colleges and universitiesColleges and universities 2,3582,358 1616 8,9488,948 2.32.3 8.7%8.7% 3.6%3.6%

1313 Building equipment contractorsBuilding equipment contractors 2,9542,954 345345 11,38411,384 1.41.4 6.9%6.9% -5.9%-5.9%

1414 Building material and supplies dealersBuilding material and supplies dealers 2,2682,268 108108 8,4658,465 1.91.9 5.3%5.3% 0.9%0.9%

1515 Grocery storesGrocery stores 5,4115,411 136136 4,1374,137 2.12.1 11.0%11.0% 0.5%0.5%

1616 Depository credit intermediationDepository credit intermediation 1,7271,727 137137 10,27510,275 0.90.9 -0.3%-0.3% 8.0%8.0%

1717 Semiconductor and electronic component mfg.Semiconductor and electronic component mfg. 4,3104,310 7676 12,46212,462 9.19.1 -18.8%-18.8% -0.6%-0.6%

1818 Automobile dealersAutomobile dealers 2,7282,728 9191 13,20213,202 2.12.1 2.0%2.0% -0.8%-0.8%

1919 Insurance carriersInsurance carriers 1,5671,567 5151 14,72014,720 1.21.2 -23.5%-23.5% 17.0%17.0%

2020 Nursing care facilitiesNursing care facilities 2,5072,507 2828 7,5607,560 1.51.5 5.1%5.1% 3.7%3.7%

2121 Computer and peripheral equipment mfg.Computer and peripheral equipment mfg. 1,3361,336 1616 29,78029,780 6.66.6 -30.5%-30.5% 6.9%6.9%

2222 Other miscellaneous manufacturingOther miscellaneous manufacturing 1,5821,582 4040 11,78111,781 4.54.5 -9.9%-9.9% -1.9%-1.9%

2323 Traveler accommodationTraveler accommodation 1,4201,420 4444 5,1965,196 0.80.8 -16.4%-16.4% -7.6%-7.6%

2424 Department storesDepartment stores 2,8432,843 2323 4,6164,616 1.81.8 -22.7%-22.7% -4.3%-4.3%

Demographics (1): Nativity and Place of BirthManchester has a larger % of population born in-state than other NH cities, the county, and the state. Manchester attracts “in-staters” but other state’s residents prefer to live elsewhere in NH. Manchester has a much larger % of residents that are foreign born compared to NH cities, Hillsborough County, and NH. Cities are rank ordered by % born in state lowest to highest.

Immigration and Net Domestic Immigration and Net Domestic In-MigrationIn-Migration

Over 60 percent of immigrants to NH since 2000 Over 60 percent of immigrants to NH since 2000 (over 7,000 of 11,600) have located in (over 7,000 of 11,600) have located in Hillsborough CountyHillsborough County

This contrasts to (just) 5 percent of 38,000 net This contrasts to (just) 5 percent of 38,000 net internal domestic migration into the state to internal domestic migration into the state to Hillsborough… significantly lower domestic in-Hillsborough… significantly lower domestic in-migration to Hillsborough than Rockingham and migration to Hillsborough than Rockingham and Merrimack County’s over 20 percent. Merrimack County’s over 20 percent.

This indicates that Hillsborough has not been as This indicates that Hillsborough has not been as attractive to out-of-state residents relocating …attractive to out-of-state residents relocating …as it has been to immigrants and those born as it has been to immigrants and those born elsewhere in NH.elsewhere in NH.

Demographics (2): Age Distribution and Median AgeManchester has the third youngest median age of “comparison cities”. The percent of young adult residents (in the 20-34 category) for Manchester exceeds that of the NH and US averages. This reflects that Manchester has a lot of young people living here to get their careers started. However between 45-54 and 55-59 (the baby boomers) the US and NH averages exceed that of Manchester.

City/Place Median Age Under 10 years 10-20 years20-34 years 35-44 years 45-54 years 55-64 years 65 years and OverAlton 41.4 13% 13% 14% 16% 17% 12% 15%Barnstead 38.8 14% 15% 16% 18% 17% 11% 11%Concord 37.0 12% 13% 21% 18% 14% 8% 14%Dover 35.5 12% 11% 26% 17% 13% 8% 14%Exeter 40.0 12% 14% 15% 17% 15% 9% 17%Laconia 38.8 12% 13% 20% 15% 14% 10% 17%Lawrence, MA 29.5 18% 17% 24% 15% 11% 6% 10%Lowell, MA 31.4 15% 15% 26% 15% 11% 7% 11%Manchester 34.9 13% 13% 24% 16% 13% 8% 13%Nashua 35.8 14% 13% 22% 18% 14% 9% 12%Portsmouth 38.5 10% 9% 25% 17% 14% 9% 16%Stratham 37.9 15% 16% 13% 22% 18% 8% 9%

New Hampshire 37.1 13% 15% 19% 18% 15% 9% 12%United States 35.3 14% 14% 21% 16% 13% 9% 12%

Social CapitalSocial Capital Advantage… it can help attract Advantage… it can help attract and retain skilled workers and entrepreneursand retain skilled workers and entrepreneurs

In 2000 and 2006 In 2000 and 2006 NH and Greater Manchester/I93 NH and Greater Manchester/I93 Corridor ranked higher than the national average on most Corridor ranked higher than the national average on most common social capital measures related to social common social capital measures related to social connections, trust and political engagementconnections, trust and political engagement.  . 

And on most all measures of social capital And on most all measures of social capital NH had more NH had more positive changes 2000 to 2006positive changes 2000 to 2006 than the national than the national average.  average. 

Social Capital Survey and 2000-06 changes suggest that Social Capital Survey and 2000-06 changes suggest that once a strong social capital base is established it enduresonce a strong social capital base is established it endures and an area (such as NH and Greater Manchester) is and an area (such as NH and Greater Manchester) is better positioned to improve over time than areas without better positioned to improve over time than areas without as strong a social capital position. as strong a social capital position.

The Social Capital AdvantageThe Social Capital Advantage

The Social Capital Community Surveys indicate that The Social Capital Community Surveys indicate that people in New Hampshire and I93 Corridor are more people in New Hampshire and I93 Corridor are more likely than the national average tolikely than the national average to:: have higher levels of generalhave higher levels of general trust trust, trust of neighbors, , trust of neighbors,

trust of police and trust of Blacks, Asians and trust of police and trust of Blacks, Asians and Hispanics,   Hispanics,  

confide in others,confide in others, cooperate cooperate with public officials and with public officials and participate in group activities, participate in group activities,

work with neighborswork with neighbors on neighborhood projects or on neighborhood projects or participate in a neighborhood association, charity or participate in a neighborhood association, charity or political group than people elsewhere, and political group than people elsewhere, and

register to vote, know the names of their U.S. register to vote, know the names of their U.S. Senators and be more trusting of local government Senators and be more trusting of local government than the national average.than the national average.

Social Capital and Young Adults in NH Social Capital and Young Adults in NH and Greater Manchesterand Greater Manchester

New Hampshire and Greater Manchester New Hampshire and Greater Manchester young adults’ young adults’ (24-35 year olds)(24-35 year olds) have higher social capital than US have higher social capital than US averageaverage

And young adult social capital in NH and Greater And young adult social capital in NH and Greater Manchester improved 2000 to 2006 more than any other Manchester improved 2000 to 2006 more than any other demographic group in the state and also more than their demographic group in the state and also more than their counterparts across the nation counterparts across the nation  This is of particular interest given the state’s decline of This is of particular interest given the state’s decline of

over 27% in the number of young adults in the 24-35 over 27% in the number of young adults in the 24-35 year old range (compared to 7% decline nationally) over year old range (compared to 7% decline nationally) over the past decade and a halfthe past decade and a half

““Ideas” For Metro Center-NH Ideas” For Metro Center-NH Promotion/Marketing…Promotion/Marketing…

Have a Good Life and a Good Job! Have a Good Life and a Good Job! Job and employment opportunities… Job and employment opportunities… a large and diverse labor a large and diverse labor

and economic market area for individuals and dual career and economic market area for individuals and dual career families families

A good place to start a business and to be an entrepreneurA good place to start a business and to be an entrepreneur Social Capital… Social Capital… community values and orientation.. community values and orientation.. Family friendly Family friendly

Northern New England’s CenterNorthern New England’s Center --“From the Mountains to the --“From the Mountains to the (Greater Boston High Technology) Valley” (Greater Boston High Technology) Valley”

• Downtown Manchester … Downtown Manchester … a “right-sized” city with many attractions a “right-sized” city with many attractions • Proximity to Boston & Routes 495 and 128Proximity to Boston & Routes 495 and 128• Manchester Airport Manchester Airport • Sporting and Entertainment CenterSporting and Entertainment Center

Verizon Area, Fisher Stadium, etc.Verizon Area, Fisher Stadium, etc.• Mountains and Seacoast proximityMountains and Seacoast proximity• Higher Education & Health Care CentersHigher Education & Health Care Centers

““Other” Data Other” Data

Metro Center-NHMetro Center-NH

Place 1970 1980 1990 2000 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000

Concord, NH 30,022 30,400 36,006 40,687 1.3 18.4 13.0Nashua, NH 55,820 67,865 79,662 86,605 21.6 17.4 8.7Providence, RI 179,116 156,804 160,728 173,618 (12.5) 2.5 8.0Manchester, NH 87,754 90,936 99,567 107,006 3.6 9.5 7.5Lowell, MA 94,239 92,418 103,439 105,167 (1.9) 11.9 1.7Pawtucket, RI 76,984 71,204 72,644 72,958 (7.5) 2.0 0.4Portland, ME 65,116 61,572 64,358 64,249 (5.4) 4.5 (0.2)New Haven, CT 137,707 126,089 130,474 123,626 (8.4) 3.5 (5.2)Hartford, CT 158,017 136,392 139,739 121,578 (13.7) 2.5 (13.0)Portsmouth, NH 25,717 26,254 25,925 20,784 2.1 (1.3) (19.8)

Hillsborough County 223,941 276,608 336,073 380,814 23.5 21.5 13.3New Hampshire 737,681 920,610 1,109,252 1,235,786 24.8 20.5 11.4United States 203,211,926 226,545,805 248,709,873 281,421,906 11.5 9.8 13.2

Population Percent Change

Population Trends for Comparison Cities rank ordered by % change 1990s

In each of the last three decades Manchester has experienced population growth, but it has lagged US, NH, and Hillsborough County growth. The percent growth disparity was reduced between 1990 and 2000.

Rank City Minutes1 Barnstead 36.62 Alton 31.13 Newburyport 29.94 Andover 29.15 Hampton 28.86 Amesbury 27.97 Stratham 27.28 York 27.19 Salem 26.4

10 Newmarket 26.111 Nashua 24.712 Somersworth 23.813 Rochester 23.714 Eliot 23.315 Exeter 22.816 Gilford 22.817 Portsmouth 21.518 Dover 21.419 Manchester 21.320 Concord 20.521 Kittery 20.222 Claremont 19.223 Conway 17.224 Durham 17.125 North Conway 14.5

Rank City Percentage1 Barnstead 72.92 Salem 58.13 Alton 56.14 Andover 52.85 Eliot 52.56 Kittery 51.47 Dover 498 Somersworth 44.89 York 44.5

10 Durham 35.411 Hampton 33.612 Newmarket 33.413 Rochester 33.114 Nashua 30.215 Newburyport 28.416 Portsmouth 27.217 Stratham 26.918 Manchester 25.819 Claremont 25.320 Amesbury 25.221 Exeter 24.322 Gilford 2123 Concord 20.924 Conway 8.225 North Conway 6.5

Place of Work and Commuting Manchester ranks 18th of 25 on percent of residents that work outside county of residence and 19th of 25 on mean travel time to work. Concord is the only main comparison city with its residents showing less of a commute to work. Residents of Manchester tend to work close by and not commute to Boston area.