1. ..-

2. (1) 1 . , . 3. (2) 2Incremental sales Baseline salesPost-promotion dipTotal sales = Baseline sales + Immediate incremental salesIncremental sales = f (temporary price reduction, displays, features, ) Baseline sales = f (regular shelf price, advertising stock, distribution, competitive activity, seasonality, ) 4. 3 - : ; ; ; . 5. Forward-backward (A.C.Nielsen) 4BLQFt Q t 1 (1 )BLQFt 1 BLQR t Q t 1 (1 )BLQR t 1 BLQFt BLQR t BLQt 2 6. Forward-backward (A.C.Nielsen) 5BLQFt Q t 1 (1 )BLQFt 1 BLQR t Q t 1 (1 )BLQR t 1 BLQFt BLQR t PBLQt 2 SADJ t Qiti 1S PBLQiti 1BLQ t ADJ t * PBLQt 7. Forward only (Nielsen Solution System) 6 BLQFt Q t 1 (1 )BLQFt 1 BLQR t Q t 1 (1 )BLQR t 1 PBLQt BLQFt BLQR t 2 NADJ t Qiti 1N PBLQiti 1SCOR t Qiti 1S PBLQiti 1BLQ t G t * PBLQt ADJ t Gt N * ADJ t (20 N) * COR tN 20 N 20 8. Forward only (IRI Promotionscan) 7DLQFt Qt (1 )DBLQFt 1 ItPBLQt I t * DBLQFt 1 NADJ t Qiti 1N PBLQiti 1BLQ t ADJ t * BLQPt 9. Forward-Backward .8 : 105 : : Forward-Backward : - - - - 10. 1 .9 44881212MSMPE0,0 0,0213,19 717,0-3,33 -8,510,0 0,0187,69 486,0-3,03 -12,850,0 1,0416,38 761,13-3,09 0,41BLFQt BLRQt 87,75 71,00BLFQt BLRQt 79,25 60,00BLFQt BLRQt 84,75 59,88BLFQt BLRQt 81,25 53,630,0 0,0173,19 301,989-2,60 -8,1967 76,5 57,080,5 1,0292,75 241,71-0,47 5,3567 74,33 55,000,0 0,0244,72 215,83-4,64 -1,92BLFQt BLRQt BLFQt BLRQt 79707265 11. 2 ( ) .10 4 4 8 8 12 1279 70 72 67 67 65 66 75 73 78 78 80 12. .111. . 2. . 3. . 13. ! louizov@abv.bg