methanol market services asia pte ltd (mmsa) acid 285 810 430 carbon monoxide 203 3970 methyl...
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Primary Derivative Secondary Derivative Tertiary Derivative Quartenary DerivativeAcetic Acid Vinyl Acetate Polyvinyl Acetate Polyvinyl Alcohol
EVAAcetic Anhydride Cellulose Acetate (filter tow)Terephthalic Acid Polyesters (polyethylene terepthatlate)
Formaldehyde Phenol Formaldehyde ResinsUrea Formaldehyde ResinsMelamine ResinsPolyoxymethylene (POM or Polyacetal)PolyolsButanediol Polyesters (polybutyl terepthalate)MDIIsoprene Rubber (polyisoprene)ParaformaldehydeHexamine
Methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE)
Methyl Methacrylate Polymethylmethacrylate (PMMA)Methacrylate/Acrylate Co Polymers
Methyl Chloride (Chloromethane) Methylene Chloride (CH2Cl2) Chloroform (CHCl3) Carbon Tetrachloride
Methylamines
OthersDimethyl terephthalate (DMT) Terephthalic Acid PolyestersReducing agent Chlorine DioxideMethyl Mercaptan (methanethiol) DL-methionine (amino acid)
Developmental UsesAlternative FuelsFuel CellsMethanol-to-OlefinsDimethyl Ether (DME)
– Comparison of Middle East Supply sources versus Chinese coalbased producers
– Comparison of Middle East Supply sources versus Chinese coalbased producers
By Region, 1999 - 2009E
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004E 2005E 2006E 2007E 2008E 2009E
Asia Americas Europe Rest of World China
Methanol Demand By Derivative - World
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004E 2005E 2006E 2007E 2008E 2009E
Others
Methanol-to-Olefins
Fuel Cells
Direct Uses (gasolineblending)
Methyl Chloride(Chloromethane)
Methylamines
Methanethiol (MethylMercaptan)
Dimethyl terephthalate(DMT)
Methyl Methacrylate
Methyl tert-Butyl Ether(MTBE)
Acetic Acid
Formaldehyde
By Region, 1999 - 2009E
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004E 2005E 2006E 2007E 2008E 2009E
-000
-to
nne
s
Asia Americas Europe Rest of World Middle East
By Region, 1999 - 2009E
-15000
-10000
-5000
0
5000
10000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004E 2005E 2006E 2007E 2008E 2009E
-000
-to
nnes
Asia Americas Europe Russia Middle East Africa
Methanol Supply and Demand - World
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004E 2005E 2006E 2007E 2008E 2009E
Th
ou
san
dT
on
nes
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Total Demand Production Net Trade Production Capacity
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
2004E 2005E 2006E 2007E 2008E 2009E
Cumulative Addition Rationization Net Capacity Growth Cumulative Net Demand Growth
-000- metric tons
42%
17%
11%
6%4%5%
3%6%6%
50%
15%
9%
6%
3%4%
3%5%
5%
China Japan South Korea Taiwan SingaporeMalaysia Indonesia India Other Asia
Methanol Supply and Demand - Asia
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004E 2005E 2006E 2007E 2008E 2009E
Tho
us
and
Ton
nes
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
Total Demand Production Net Trade Production Capacity
Within Asia External to Asia
Country Capacity to Produce Country Capacity to Produce Supply to Asia(Million metric tons) (Million metric tons) (Million metric Tons)
China 6.40 Saudi Arabia 4.41 2.43Indonesia 0.94 Iran 1.74 0.95Malaysia 0.73 Qatar 0.91 0.55New Zealand 0.52 Bahrain 0.47 0.23India 0.45 Others 2.1 0.40
Total Asia 9.04 Total External 9.63 4.56
Total Available Capacity for Asia:13.60 million metric tons
Demand, Asia, 2004E:11.84 million metric tons
Methanol Production Capacity Serving Asia, 2004E
Methanol Supply and Demand - China
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004E 2005E 2006E 2007E 2008E 2009E
Th
ou
san
dT
on
nes
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
Total Demand Production Net Trade Production Capacity
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
1213 14
15 16GUANGDONG
FUJIAN
ZHEJIANG
JIANGSU
SHANDONG
TIANJIN
Methanol Use in AsiaBy Derivative
37%
12%9%4%
3%5%
1%
27%38%
14%7%
3%
3%
5%
1%
27%
Formaldehyde Acetic Acid Methyl tert-Butyl Ether (MTBE) Methyl Methacrylate
Dimethyl terephthalate (DMT) Methanethiol (Methyl Mercap tan) Methylamines Methyl Chloride (Chloromethane)Direct Uses (gasoline blending) Fuel Ce lls Methanol-to-Olefins Others
2009E15.36
millionmetrictons
2004E11.81
millionmetrictons
Formaldehyde Demand By Derivative - World
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004E 2005E 2006E 2007E 2008E 2009E
Others
MelamineFormaldehyde ResinHexamine
Urea FormaldehydeConcentrates
Paraformaldehyde
Phenol FormaldehydeResinsMDI
1,4 BDO
TMP, TME, NPG
Pentaeryithrytol
POM
Urea FormaldehydeResins
Acetic Acid Demand By Derivative - World
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004E 2005E 2006E 2007E 2008E 2009E
Others
Acetate Esters
Acetic Anydride
Terephthalic Acid
Vinyl AcetateMonomer
By Region, 1999 - 2009E
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004E 2005E 2006E 2007E 2008E 2009E
Asia Americas Europe Russia Middle East Africa
Formaldehyde Supply and Demand - Asia
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004E 2005E 2006E 2007E 2008E 2009E
Th
ou
san
dT
on
nes
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
Total Demand Production Production Capacity
– Comparison of Middle East Supply sources versus Chinese coalbased producers
China Methanol Price FactorsMonthly, Historical
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Jan-0
0
Apr-00
Jul-0
0
Oct-0
0
Jan-0
1
Apr-01
Jul-0
1
Oct-0
1
Jan-0
2
Apr-02
Jul-0
2
Oct-0
2
Jan-0
3
Apr-03
Jul-0
3
Oct-0
3
Jan-0
4
Apr-04
Jul-0
4
Oct-0
4
Do
llars
per
met
ric
ton
PG Netback Margin Northeast Asia USD/metric ton Methanol China Spot, Avg. CFR Shanghai USD/metric tonDelivered Cost Parity Imports to China USD/metric ton
• US methanolproductionhas, willcontinue tobe lessinfluential
• China andMiddle Easteconomicsincreasinglydictatepricing floors
• Currentlywell aboveboth pricing,with highmarginspromotingnew project“mania”
Cash Cost per Ton Methanol, Gas vs Coal, Hypothetical ChinaRough Estimate, For Demonstration Only, Requires Further Verification
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
$200
$220
$240
$15.0 $17.5 $20.0 $22.5 $25.0 $27.5 $30.0 $32.5 $35.0 $37.5 $40.0 $42.5 $45.0 $47.5 $50.0
Coal Cost, $/ton
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
$200
$220
$240$2.50 $2.75 $3.00 $3.25 $3.50 $3.75 $4.00 $4.25 $4.50 $4.75 $5.00 $5.25 $5.50 $5.75 $6.00
Coal - Modern Coal - Small Scale Natural Gas
Likely China
Likely China
Likely China
Middle East Delivered to China, incl Duty, Typical
Global Methanol Pricing
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
US
Dol
lars
per
me
tric
ton
Methanol China Spot , Avg. CFR Shanghai USD/metric ton
Methanol US Posted Transaction FOB USGC USD/metric ton
Methanol West Europe Contract (T2) FOB Rotterdam USD/metric ton
Methanol Enduse TypicalPrices
Other Feeds Methanol"Affordability"FOB Persian
Gulf*
MethanolConsumption,
2009E
Low High USD/MT USD/MT -000- metric tons
Formaldehyde (37%aq.) 140 550 240 air, steam 143 15357
Acetic Acid 285 810 430 Carbon Monoxide 203 3970
Methyl tert-Butyl Ether (MTBE) 170 780 390 n-butane 187 6620
Methyl Methacrylate 900 1950 1200 Acetone Cyanohydrin 570 1273
Methanethiol (Methyl Mercaptan) N/A N/A 1100 H2S 1025 528
Methylamines 850 1650 1060 Ammonia 893 933
Methyl Chloride (Chloromethane) 550 1010 710 Hydrogen Chloride 487 1859
ASP PriceRange,
USD/Ton
Methanol Value By Enduse
*"Affordability" is a calculation of the price of methanol that would enable "typical" costs (using MMSA models) plus 12% return netback to PG; actual affordability is variable anddependent upon numerous factors
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000
Cumulative Consumption of MeOH
Application Market Size, Global (-000- metric tons)Current Potential*
Alternative FuelsGasoline Blends 150 - 400 15,000 - 35,000Biodiesel 200 - 250 25,000 - 40,000Dimethyl Ether (DME) 50 - 80 10,000 - 15,000
Fuel Cells 2 - 3 3,000 - 8,000
Methanol to Olefins 5 - 6 20,000 - 30,000
Direct Combustion - e.g.Power Generation 0 40,000 - 60,000
*Rough estimates of peak demand calculated as replacement percentage of existing globaldemand as a substitute, for discussion purposes
Developing Methanol Markets - Summary
