meteorological uncertainty management for trajectory based
TRANSCRIPT
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Founding Members
Prof.DamiánRivasProjectCoordinator
MeteorologicalUncertaintyManagementforTrajectoryBasedOperations—TBO-METTBO-Metworkshop
Salzburg,Austria,3-4May2018
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TBO-MetConsortium
ProjectTBO-Met:MeteorologicalUncertaintyManagementforTBOH2020-SESAR-2015-1“Environment&MeteorologyforATM”
TBO-MetWorkshop 2
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Outline
1.Projectoverview2.Projectachievements3.Potentialforfollow-up
TBO-MetWorkshop 3
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ProjectOverview(1)
ObjectiveTheoverallobjectiveoftheprojectisthreefold(asindicatedintheGrant
Agreement):• Toadvanceintheunderstandingoftheeffectsofmeteorological
uncertaintyinTBO.• Todevelopmethodologiestoanalyse,quantifyandmanagetheeffectsof
meteorologicaluncertaintyinTBO.• Topavetheroadforafutureintegrationofthemanagementof
meteorologicaluncertaintyintotheATMsystem.
TBO-MetWorkshop
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ProjectOverview(2)
Focus,SpecificObjectivesandGeneralApproachWefocusontwoparticularproblems,bothatthepre-tacticalandtacticallevels:
• TrajectoryplanningunderMETuncertainties(trajectoryscale;microscale)• PredictionofsectordemandunderMETuncertainties
(trafficscale;mesoscale)Hence,therearetwospecificobjectives:
• Toimprovethepredictabilityofaircrafttrajectorieswhensubjecttoweatheruncertaintykeepingacceptablelevelsofefficiency(trade-offbetweenpredictabilityandefficiency).
• Toincreasetheaccuracyofthepredictionofsectordemandwhenweatheruncertaintyistakenintoaccount(assessmentofthepredictabilityofthesectordemandwhenthepredictabilityoftheindividualtrajectoriesisimproved).
Thetrajectoryplanningandsectordemandanalysesaremadeusingprobabilisticapproaches(theweatheruncertaintyismodeledprobabilistically).
TBO-MetWorkshop
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ProjectOverview(3)
ImpactTheexpectedimpactsofTBO-Metareasfollows:Fromthepointofviewoftheintegrationofmeteorologicalinformationinto
ATMplanning:• assessmentofhowexistingmeteorologicalproductscanbeusedto
enhancepredictabilityofaircrafttrajectorieswithinTBO;• assessmentofhowimprovementsoftheexistingmeteorologicalproducts
couldenhancepredictabilityofaircrafttrajectorieswithinTBO.FromthepointofviewoftheoverallefficiencyoftheATMsystem:• fromtheairlinesperspective,thereductionofcostsandrisks;• fromtheANSPside,thebetterallocationofresourcesandreducedATC
workload;• fromtheNetworkManager,thebetteridentificationoftheATFCM
measurestobeapplied(forexample,rerouting,advancingtraffic,orslotallocation).
TBO-MetWorkshop
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ProjectOverview(4)
TBO-MetWorkshop 7
MeteoInput
DataProce ssing
Proj ectOutput
Solutio nsEvalua tion
WP3:Surve y
WP5:Sectorde mandanalysis
WP4:Traje ctoryplann ing
WP2:Dataprovi sionandda taprocessin g
WP6:Evalua tionandassessm entofsolutions
WP8:Ethicsreq uirem ents
WP7:Dissemi nation,explo itationandcom muni cation
WP1:Proj ectmanage ment
TBOResear chTopics
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ProjectOverview(5)
Input Trajectoryanalysis
Trafficanalysis
Validation
Midterm 100% 100% 100% 100%
Shortterm 100% 100% 100% 100%
WP2 WP4 WP5 WP6
TBO-MetWorkshop
§ 3 research topics: • mid-term trajectory planning considering weather forecast uncertainties • short-term trajectory prediction under thunderstorm activity • sector demand analysis considering weather forecast uncertainties
§ 8 technical problems
8
§ stakeholders’ survey WP3
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TBO-MetWorkshop 9
ProjectOverview(6)
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ProjectOverview(7)
RobustAircraftTrajectoryPlanningunderWindUncertaintyusingOptimalControl.D.González-Arribas,ManuelSoler,andManuelSanjurjo.JournalofGuidance,Control,andDynamics,Vol.41(3),2018,pp.673-688.https://doi.org/10.2514/1.G002928
Wind-BasedRobustAircraftRouteOptimizationusingMeteorologicalEnsemblePredictionSystems.D.González-Arribas,ManuelSoler,andManuelSanjurjo.6thSESARInnovationDays(SID),2016.AvailableatOpen-Aire.
RobustOptimalTrajectoryPlanningunderUncertainWindsandConvectiveRisk.DanielGonzález-Arribas,ManuelSoler,JavierGarcía-Heras,ManuelSanjurjo-Rivo,UlrikeGelhardt,JuergenLang,DanielSacher,ThomasHauf,andJuanSimarro.ATM/CNSEIWACConference2017.Inreviewfor“AirTrafficManagementandSystemsIII-Selectedpapersofthe5thENRIinternationalworkshop,2017”,Springer.
Sectordemandanalysisundermeteorologicaluncertainty.AlfonsoValenzuela,AntonioFrancoandDamiánRivas.7thEuropeanConferenceforAeronauticsandSpaceSciences(EUCASS),2017.
EffectsofReducingWind-InducedTrajectoryUncertaintyonSectorDemand.AlfonsoValenzuela,AntonioFranco,DamiánRivas,JavierGarcía-HerasandManuelSoler.7thSESARInnovationDays(SID),2017.
EffectsofWeatherUncertaintyinSectorDemandatTacticalLevel.AlfonsoValenzuela,AntonioFranco,DamiánRivas,DanielSacher,JavierGarcía-HerasandManuelSoler.InternationalSymposiumonSustainableAviation(ISSA),2018.
TBO-MetWorkshop 10
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Outline
1.Projectoverview2.Projectachievements3.Potentialforfollow-up
TBO-MetWorkshop 11
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Projectachievements(1)
ConclusionsTheresultshaveshownthat
• thepredictabilityofaircrafttrajectoriescanbeincreased• thestormavoidancestrategycanbebetteranticipated• theaccuracyofsectordemandforecastcanbeimproved
hence,basedontheseresults,theoverallconclusionisthat
theATMefficiencycanbeenhancedbyintegratingintotheATMplanningprocesstheavailableinformationabouttheuncertaintyofweatherforecasts.
TBO-MetWorkshop
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Projectachievements(2)Specificachievements• Forthemid-termtrajectoryplanningproblem,theachievementisthecapability
ofgeneratingmorepredictabletrajectoriesconsideringtheuncertaintyofweatherpredictions;theoutputisasetofalternativeroutes,accordingtothedifferenttrade-offs;
• Forthestormavoidanceproblem,theachievementisthecapabilityofbeingbetterinformedabouttheevolutionofthehazardousconvectiveweatherregions;theoutputnowisanensembleofpossibledeviationtrajectoriesthatavoidthepotentialstormrealisations,leadingtoamoreproactivewayoffacingthunderstorms.
• Forthesectordemandproblem,theachievementisthecapabilityofimprovingtheaccuracyofthesectordemandforecast;theoutputisaquantitativemeasureoftheuncertaintyofsectordemand,whichcanbeupdatedaccordingtothereleaseofnewforecastsandthemovementoftheaircraft.
TBO-MetWorkshop
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Projectachievements(3)
OutcomeandpotentialbenefitsTheoveralloutcomehasbeenthedevelopmentofmethodologiestoquantify
andbetterunderstandtheimpactofwinduncertaintyandconvectiveweatherintrajectoryplanningandsectordemand,bothatmid-termandshort-termlevels.
Thepotentialbenefitsarethefollowing:
• Reductionofthebuffertimesusedbyairlines• Better-informeddecisionmaking• Increaseofdeclaredsectorcapacities• Betteridentificationofdemand-capacitybalancingmeasures
TBO-MetWorkshop
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Projectachievements(4)
TBO-MetWorkshop
TRL-criteriaID Trajectoryplanning Stormavoidance Sectordemand
1 Achieved Achieved Achieved
2 Achieved Partial-NonBlocking Partial-NonBlocking
3 Achieved Achieved Achieved
4 Achieved Achieved Achieved
5 Achieved Partial-NonBlocking Achieved
6 Achieved Achieved Achieved
7 Achieved Achieved Achieved
8 Partial-NonBlocking Partial-NonBlocking Partial-NonBlocking
9 Achieved Partial-NonBlocking Achieved
10 Partial-NonBlocking Partial-NonBlocking Partial-NonBlocking
11 Achieved Achieved Achieved
12 Achieved Achieved Achieved
Maturity
The three research topics show maturity to go from TRL 0 to TRL 1
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Outline
1.Projectoverview2.Projectachievements3.Potentialforfollow-up
TBO-MetWorkshop 16
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Projectfollow-up(1)
Technicallessonslearned
• Theneedforenhancedmeteorologicaldata,includingcalibrationofEPSsandimprovedprobabilisticnowcasts
• Theneedforanimprovedrobusttrajectoryplanner(withhypothesesrelaxation)
• Theneedforanextendedmethodologyforsectordemandanalysisatmulti-sectorscale
TBO-MetWorkshop
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Projectfollow-up(2)
Intrajectoryplanning,thefollowingresearchisneededforthefuture:• Theinclusionofothersourcesofuncertaintydifferentfromthe
meteorologicalone,e.g.,onaircraftdynamics.• TheuseofcalibratedEPSobtainedthroughstatisticalprost-processing
techniques,forinstanceEnsembleModelOutputStatistics.• Theenrichmentofaircraftperformancemodelling,e.g.,considering
BADA4,whichaccountsforcompressibilityeffects.• Theconsiderationofstructuredairspacesas,forexample,FreeRouting
Airspace.• Theconsiderationofthree-dimensionalflights,includingthusvariable
barometricaltitude.Thiswouldallowthecomputationofcompleteflights.
• Theconsiderationofmeteorologicalforecaststhatevolveovertime,e.g.,toconsideraseriesofsnapshotsoftheforecastedstatusoftheatmosphereforthewholedurationoftheflight.
TBO-MetWorkshop
Recommendations for future steps
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Projectfollow-up(3)
Inthestormavoidanceproblem,thefollowingresearchisneededforthefuture:• Theinclusionofothersourcesofuncertaintydifferentfromthelocation
oftheconvectivecells.• Theimprovementofthunderstormuncertaintymodelling,e.g.,extracting
probabilisticfieldsbyusingprobabilisticnowcasts.• Incaseoftheavailabilityofnowcastsproviding3Dstormcells,the
considerationofverticalavoidancemanoeuvres.• Theconsiderationofoperationalenvironmentconstraints,suchas
preventingthedeviationtrajectoriesfromenteringintorestrictedorreservedairspaces.
TBO-MetWorkshop
Recommendations for future steps
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Projectfollow-up(4)
Inthesectordemandproblem,thefollowingresearchisneededforthefuture:• ExtensiontoTMAenvironment,consideringclimbing/descending
trajectories,whichmayenter/exitthesectoralsobytheupperandlowerlimits.
• Multi-sectoranalysis,thatis,theextensionofthemethodologytobeabletoanalysetrafficconsideringseveralsectorsatonce.
• Variablesectorconfiguration,totakeintoaccountthattheATCsectorscanbeopenedand/ormerged.
TBO-MetWorkshop
Recommendations for future steps
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Projectfollow-up(5)
Input Trajectoryanalysis
Trafficanalysis
Midterm EPS TP/OptControl 1sector
Furtherresearch
Calibration ImprovedTP Multisector/Variable
configuration
Input Trajectoryanalysis
Trafficanalysis
Shortterm Nowcast DIVMET 1sector
Furtherresearch
Probabilisticnowcast
ImprovedDIVMET
Multisector/Variable
configuration
TBO-MetWorkshop
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Founding Members
ThisprojecthasreceivedfundingfromtheSESARJointUndertakingundertheEuropeanUnion’sHorizon2020researchandinnovationprogrammeundergrantagreementNo[number]
Theopinionsexpressedhereinreflecttheauthor’sviewonly.UndernocircumstancesshalltheSESARJointUndertakingberesponsibleforanyusethatmaybemadeoftheinformationcontainedherein.
Thankyouverymuchforyourattention!
MeteorologicalUncertaintyManagementforTrajectoryBasedOperations—TBO-METTBO-Metworkshop