meteo risk response presentation at international disaster and risk conference in davos
TRANSCRIPT
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A smart approach to manage Weather related exposures
Eivind Helland - Swissnor GmbH, Baden, Switzerland. Hanspeter Frei - Global Risk Experts AG, Wollerau, Switzerland Sebastian Glink - MeteoGroup Schweiz AG, Appenzell, Switzerland.
Natural Hazards over the last 30 years • causes widespread destruction and loss of life • almost USD 4 trillion in economic losses
• 75% are storm- and flood related • 40% of these losses alone in Asia
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• Integrate advanced weather technology onsite risk assessments quantitative risk analytics
• User-friendly cloud based solution – readily accessible company-wide from anywhere
Meteo Risk Response Methodology
The ‘Meteo Risk Response’ Wheel©
Applicable to Storm & Flood Hazards
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What is the Difference to the Common Approach?
Improving Predictability and Readiness
On-site weather stations
Following parameters are
measured and transmitted every
10 minutes via GPRS/ SMS:
- Temperature
- Humidity
- Wind speed
- Wind gusts
- Wind direction
- Air pressure
- Rainfall
- Global irradiation
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Different mathematical meteorological and hydrological models for storm and water levels include:
• Meteorological & hydrological* forecasting models for studies on precipitation and run-off processes
• Hydrological and hydraulic reservoir inflow forecasting models
• Hydrological and hydraulic river/channel models covering the area upstream
• Models describing sediment transport in the catchment area
* DHI (Danish Hydrological Institute) is our partner as world leading company in hydrological modeling
Modeling Approach
Developing Site-specific Loss Scenarios
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Analysing Cost / Benefit of Treatment
Approach for Triggering Warnings and Alerts
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Flood Severity Distribution Function
• Potential annual loss-outcomes
• The most probable loss is defined as the threshold event
Risk Management Dashboard
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Meteo Risk Response Deliverables • Site specific meteorological / hydrological models with information of
wind, flood levels, frequency and historical data
• Site assessment with clear description of loss scenarios, evaluation of exposure regarding frequency and severity, loss estimation, values at risk
• Tailored risk treatment by elimination, reduction or prevention, with estimated implementation expenditure , pay-back period and reduction of cost of risks
• Emergency response and alarm plans before and after corrective actions are implemented. Training & testing.
• Weather station on-site providing regular, streaming weather data.
• MRR / TERM software as a risk management platform to manage initiate alarms, notify pre-defined audiences, and to provide emergency response actions based on the alarm level and defined plans.
• Most advanced weather stations with hourly forecasting
• A dynamic risk management software in a modern web-based solution, incl. incident & risk analytics, quantification of earnings at risk, risk indicator monitoring, alarm notification, emergency response plan, including activation and various modeling & reporting features
• Loss forecasting and risk treatment of natural hazards by elimination or reduction of probabilities and/or severity of losses
• Improved budget planning as well as optimization of reserves and insurance solutions regarding natural catastrophe impacts
• Understanding of dependencies and supply chain vulnerabilities impacting the bottom line and cash flows
Benefits of the approach
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• Facilitating the decision on risk appetite and risk tolerance levels
• Improved reputation and meeting investors’, stakeholders’ and supply chain expectations regarding stable earnings, predictability and transparency by proactive Risk Management
• Supports the commitment to corporate social responsibility and climate change impacts
• For organizations with multiple sites a triage process will help to identify high risk locations to optimize efficiency of the MRR services with the aim to reduce overall cost.
Benefits of the approach (cont.)
Added value for the Post 2015 Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction
• Support of the implementation of the Hyogo Framework for Action: – Action 2: Identify, assess, monitor and mitigate disaster risks
– Enhance early warning and preparation for the event and post-event recovery
– Implementing the MRR approach also benefit the local communities by sharing highly reliable weather data and early warnings at no costs
– Supports the commitment to corporate social responsibility and climate change impacts
• Further steps to be addressed in the Post 2015 Framework – Research: Further calibration of modelling approach with back-testing
– Education & Training: Education of personnel to implement emergency response plans and preparedness training
