merchant pv, a new dawn for pv development and challenges...2020/09/02 · versus merchant. what is...

Merchant PV, a new dawn for PV development and challenges

JOSE DONOSOGENERAL DIRECTOR

UNEF

Session 1: Merchant PV and commercial PPAs: a new perspective on competitive PV development

EU PVSEC – September 9th, 2020

What is UNEF?

The Spanish Photovoltaic Union (UNEF) is the reference

Association of the Spanish PV sector.

An Association that brings together practically all the industry:

producers, installers, engineers, manufacturers of raw

materials, modules and components, distributors and other

related companies.

UNEF also holds the Presidency and Co-Secretariat of

FOTOPLAT, the Spanish Technological Photovoltaic Platform.

The Platform brings together Universities, Research Centers

and leading companies of photovoltaic R & D in Spain.

www.unef.es - EU PVSEC - 2020/09/07 2

85%of the PV sector

≈ 470 companies

Installers & Engineers

Mixed

Producers

Manufacturers

Distributors

UNEF represents


125

493

2.733

41

438 404299

1067 35 5 2 26

4.201

0

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

6.000

7.000

8.000

9.000

10.000

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

4.000

4.500

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Pote

ncia

insta

lada acum

ula

da (

MW

)

Pote

ncia

insta

lada anual (M

W)

Potencia solar FV - Instalada anual (MW) Potencia solar FV - Acumulada (MW)

4

2019: New record of PV capacity

Utility-scale ground mounted (MW)

Source: REE

Installed annually Accumulated

An

nu

alin

sta

lled

ca

pa

city

(MW

)

Accu

mu

late

din

sta

lled

ca

pa

city

(MW

)

www.unef.es - EU PVSEC - 2020/09/07

5

Source: PNIEC

What about the future? PNIEC

Renewables 42% of final energy consumption

Emissions - 23 % with respect to 1990

Renewables 74% of electricity generation

In 2030


https://www.miteco.gob.es/es/cambio-climatico/participacion-publica/eae-pniec.aspx

6

Stable evolution of photovoltaic capacity (MW) to meet the 2030 target scenario of PNIEC

Source: REE and PNIEC

We need a stable deployment

4.201

2.751

8.915

39.181

0

5.000

10.000

15.000

20.000

25.000

30.000

35.000

40.000

45.000

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

4.000

4.500

Pote

ncia

insta

lada a

cum

ula

da (

MW

)

Pote

ncia

insta

lada a

nual

(MW

)

Potencia solar FV - Instalada anual (MW) Potencia solar FV - Acumulada (MW)Installed annually Accumulated

An

nu

alin

sta

lled

ca

pa

city

(MW

)

Accu

mu

late

din

sta

lled

ca

pa

city

(MW

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27 28 30

44 46

59

6771

77 78 8084 86 88

71 71

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49

5850

3632

2821 22 21

34 33

2125

3240

5158

6773

82 8387

98 99

109

92

104109

103 103 10599

103 105

120 121

31-mar 30-abr 31-may 30-jun 31-jul 31-ago 30-sep 31-oct 30-nov 31-dic 31-ene 29-feb 31-mar 30-abr

2019 2020

Sol. Autorizadadas Sol. en tramitación Sol. Rechazadas Total solicitudes

Uds: GW

7

Network access and connection permits (GW) for PV

Source: REE

Granted In process Rejected Total requests


8

How do we get there?

Market (€/MWh)

The new projects have three formulas of economic

exploitation with different degrees

of income stabilization.

AuctionsHeld by the regulator for a price for the energy generated (€/MWh)

PPAsPrivate energy purchase and sale contracts at a certain price (€/MWh)

MerchantObtain the income only from the market assuming the price risk


Prices during covid-19

9

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S

March April

Ave

rag

e d

aily p

rice

(€

/MW

h)

2020 2019 2018 2017

State of alarm

(14th March)


35%

70%

63%

73%68%

54

17

8 5

11

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Enero Febrero Marzo Abril Mayo Junio

Pre

cio

(€

/MW

h)

Ge

ne

ració

n r

en

ova

ble

% Gen renovable Precio mercado

10

Impact of covid-19

Daily average of spot price in Spain (€/MWh) and Renewables share (%)

Source: OMIE and REE

RES Share (%)

RE

S S

ha

re (

%)

Ma

rke

tp

rice

(€/M

Wh

)

Market price (€/MWh)

January Februrary March April May June

Start of social

distancing measures


Impact on Utility Scale Plants

11

• Short term:

• Delays in the planning process

• Delays in the connection of plants in construction

• Medium/Long term:

• How the investors will integrate these day´s low electricity

prices in their investment decisions ?

• Will the banks change their financial terms?


Recovery Plan Proposal

12

Ground Floor

• Speeding the planning process

• Auctions

• Access to good terms financing


13

The PV sector on the crossroad: Auctionsversus merchant. What is the best solution?

Auctions: • Give stability• Easier finance• Allow more players

But… too agresive pricesDifficult finace

Big pressure on technological enterprises



P.P.A.: • Strong presure to reduce prices due to COVID19 electricity prices

and auctions prices• Not enough oftakers for PNIEC targets

Merchant: • Inadecuation of the marginalist price system• Big incertitude about future price curve: canibalitation• Not all the banks are ready to finance• Less players

The PV sector on the crossroad: Auctionsversus merchant. What is the best solution?

Thank you for your attention

merchant pv, a new dawn for pv development and challenges...2020/09/02 · versus merchant. what is...

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