Mentor – a performance support system for forecasters

Chris Ryan1, Ankur Jha2 and Swarup Joshi2

1Commonwealth Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia

2RMIT University, Melbourne, Australia

GoalsRecord some of the knowledge of experienced forecastersProvide data and statistics on subjective facets of the forecasting processProvide real-time assistance for forecastersAssist training of forecasters

Technical DetailsModelled on the “Coach” system at Tulsa WFOWeb forms using Java Server Pages (JSP) and JavascriptOracle databaseThin client architecture (application runs on central server with distributed output to clients)Each day’s entry is represented by one row in the database relation.

Using Mentor – Initial Data EntryEntered once per forecasting shift (2-3/day)Entered by shift representative or supervisorAutomatically determines current “Synoptic Type” and calculates relevant statisticsEntries are requested on:

Expected weather Mesoscale features affecting the forecastPossible hazardous weatherProblems of the dayConfidence in the NWP guidanceDegree of model dispersionLevel of difficulty of the forecast

Using Mentor - Follow-up Data EntryEntered once per shift (2-3/day)Entered by shift representative or supervisorEntries record the performance of the forecasts made the previous dayEntries are requested on the same topics as for “Initial Data Entry”, plus:

Perceived overall forecasting performanceLevel of surprise at the observed weather

Using Mentor - SearchThe Mentor database can be searched for situations similar to the current one by:

Examining the most recent entriesSpecifying a dateSpecifying values of any recorded parameters such as NWP confidence, Synoptic Type, Problems of the Day, etc.

PlansOperational trials in first half of 2003Improve interfaceRoutine operational use in 7 RFCs from mid-2003Analysis of database when sufficiently populated (1 year)

IssuesFitting another job into the forecaster’s scheduleEfficient user interface Perceived value of subjective data