Mekong BFP ReviewMac Kirby, Mohammed Mainuddin, CSIRO

Matt Chadwick Chayanis Krittasudthacheewa EricMatt Chadwick, Chayanis Krittasudthacheewa, Eric Kemp-Bendict, SEI

David Clayton, MRC

Cali workshop, September 2007

OutlineOutline

•• Brief introduction to the Brief introduction to the M kM kMekongMekong

•• Overview of issuesOverview of issues•• What can change?What can change?•• BFP products & BFP products & pp

disseminationdissemination•• Data sourcesData sources•• General approachGeneral approach•• What worked and whatWhat worked and whatWhat worked and what What worked and what

didn’t didn’t

The Mekong The Mekong

ChinaChina

Myanmar

Laos

Myanmar

Laos•• 6 countries 4 in Mekong6 countries 4 in MekongThailand

Luang Prabang

Thailand

Luang Prabang•• 6 countries, 4 in Mekong 6 countries, 4 in Mekong River Agreement, China River Agreement, China and Myanmar observersand Myanmar observers

VietnamCambodia

500 km

Tonle Sap

Phnom

VietnamCambodia

500 km500 km

Tonle Sap

Phnom

and Myanmar observersand Myanmar observers•• ~60 m people, majority ~60 m people, majority

ruralruralruralrural•• ~4,200 km long; 795,000 ~4,200 km long; 795,000

kmkm22; 495,000 mcm; 495,000 mcmkmkm ; 495,000 mcm ; 495,000 mcm discharge (495 kmdischarge (495 km33))

The Mekong in the CP The Mekong in the CP --wettest basinwettest basin

1.2supply limit

it li it

0.8

1capacity limit

0.6

ET/E

To

MekongGanges

IndusVolta

0.2

0.4 Sao FranciscoLimpopo Niger

Nile

Yellow

Karkheh 800

1000

1200

1400

1600

in, m

m

00 0.5 1 1.5

P/ETo

Karkheh

0

200

400

600Gan

ges

Indus

Karkh

ehLim

popo

Mekon

gNi

ger

Nile

Sao F

rancis

coVo

ltaYe

llow

Rai

P/ETo

Water use accounts Water use accounts --flowflow

Luang Prabang total outflow comparisonobservedmodelled

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

Flow

, mcm

Muong Ngoy

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

ow, m

cm

obsest

ChinaChina

0

5000

10000

1 16 31 46 61 76 91 106 121 136 151 166 181

Months0

1000

2000

3000

1 15 29 43 57 71 85 99 113 127 141 155 169 183 197

Months

Flo

Ublocal flow obs China

Myanmar

China

Myanmar

Ubon

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

low

, mcm

local flow calc Kratie and Luang Prabang

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

Flow

, mcm

Luang PrabangKratie

Laos

Thailand

Luang Prabang

Laos

Thailand

Luang PrabangPhnom Penh total outflow comparison

120000

total flow obs"total flow calc"

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

1 15 29 43 57 71 85 99 113 127 141 155 169 183

Months

F

0

20000

1 13 25 37 49 61 73 85 97 109121133145157169181Months

VietnamCambodia

Tonle Sap

VietnamCambodia

Tonle SapTonle Sap flow model

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

m /m

o

observed fowpredicted flow

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

Flow

, mcm

500 km Phnom 500 km500 km Phnom

-25000

-20000

-15000

-10000

-5000

05000

1 13 25 37 49 61 73 85 97 109 121 133 145 157 169 181

Months

Flow

, mcm

01 17 33 49 65 81 97 113 129 145 161 177

Months

Hydrology Hydrology -- floods floods

•• Extensive in Cambodia and Extensive in Cambodia and deltadeltadelta delta

St l lSt l l•• Store large volumesStore large volumes

•• Also much storage during peak Also much storage during peak flows, in main channel, flows, in main channel, tributaries and wetlandstributaries and wetlandstributaries and wetlands tributaries and wetlands (Songkhram stores large (Songkhram stores large volumes, for example)volumes, for example)volumes, for example)volumes, for example)

Water useWater use

•• Upland ChinaUpland China•• Forested Laos Forested Laos

generates most generates most ggrunoffrunoff

•• Drier, cropped NEDrier, cropped NEDrier, cropped NE Drier, cropped NE ThailandThailand

•• Irrigated deltaIrrigated delta•• Irrigated deltaIrrigated delta

Overall water use

Crop production Crop production -- ricerice

•• Based on national Based on national statistics (are they all statistics (are they all ( y( ymeasured the same?)measured the same?)

•• Rice average yieldRice average yieldI Th il d l ?I Th il d l ?•• Is Thailand low?Is Thailand low?

•• Increases everywhere?Increases everywhere?

4 00

5.00

6.00

on/h

a

Laos

Thailand

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

Ric

e yi

eld,

to

Cambodia

Vietnam

Vietnam Central0.00

1990 1995 2000 2005

Year

highlandsVietnam MekongRiver Delta

Gross value of Gross value of productionproductionproductionproduction

•• GVP per capita GVP per capita -- also also have per hectare etchave per hectare etchave per hectare etchave per hectare etc

•• No increase?No increase?

60

80

100

120

ce, $

/cap

ita

Laos

Thailand

Cambodia

0

20

40

1990 1995 2000 2005

GVP

of r

i

Vietnam

Vietnam CentralhighlandsVietnam Mekong1990 1995 2000 2005

YearRiver Delta

Water productivity Water productivity --ricericericerice•• Based on estimated ET Based on estimated ET

(FAO crop coefficient (FAO crop coefficient ( p( papproach)approach)

•• Thailand Cambodia low?Thailand Cambodia low?

0.400

0.600

0.800

duct

ivity

, kg/

m3 Laos

Thailand

Cambodia

0.000

0.200

1990 1995 2000 2005

Wat

er p

rod

Vietnam

Vietnam CentralhighlandsVietnam MekongRiver Delta

Year

Other cropsOther crops

•• Sugar and maizeSugar and maize•• SugarSugar -- Thailand high?Thailand high?Sugar Sugar Thailand high?Thailand high?

6.00

Laos

1 00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

Mai

ze y

ield

, ton

/ha

aos

Thailand

Cambodia

Vietnam

0.00

1.00

1990 1995 2000 2005

Year

Vietnam CentralhighlandsVietnam MekongRiver Delta

80

20

40

60

garc

ane

yiel

d, to

n/ha

Laos

Thailand

Cambodia

Vietnam

01990 1995 2000 2005

Year

Su Vietnam CentralhighlandsVietnam MekongRiver Delta

LivestockLivestock

•• Not increasing as Not increasing as percentage or per capitapercentage or per capitap g p pp g p p

80

100

as %

Ag Laos

Thailand

0

20

40

60

GVP

of l

ives

tock

a

Cambodia

Vietnam

Vietnam Centralhighlands0

1990 1995 2000 2005

Year

highlandsVietnam MekongRiver Delta

40

50

apita Laos

10

20

30

40

P of

live

stoc

k, $

/ca

Thailand

Cambodia

Vietnam

0

10

1990 1995 2000 2005

Year

GVP Vietnam Central

highlandsVietnam MekongRiver Delta

FisheriesFisheries

•• Very important inland fisheries Very important inland fisheries -- especially capture fisheries especially capture fisheries Tonle Sap and rapidly increasing aquaculture in deltaTonle Sap and rapidly increasing aquaculture in deltaTonle Sap and rapidly increasing aquaculture in deltaTonle Sap and rapidly increasing aquaculture in delta

•• Estimates of yield unclear Estimates of yield unclear -- consumption estimates regarded consumption estimates regarded as more reliable and are 2as more reliable and are 2--3 x production estimates. 3 x production estimates.

•• However, few trend estimates for consumption.However, few trend estimates for consumption.•• Current growth rate unclear (uncertain estimates), but Current growth rate unclear (uncertain estimates), but

maybe 0 5 m tonnes last ten years mainly aquaculturemaybe 0 5 m tonnes last ten years mainly aquaculturemaybe 0.5 m tonnes last ten years, mainly aquaculturemaybe 0.5 m tonnes last ten years, mainly aquaculture

1200000

1400000Change in measurements

400000

600000

800000

1000000

All f

ish,

tonn

es

0

200000

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

Laos Thailand Cambodia Vietnam VCH VMD

Fisheries Fisheries --productionproductionproductionproduction

30000

35000

40000

350000

400000Cambodia Laos

10000

15000

20000

25000

Prod

uctio

n,

150000

200000

250000

300000

Prod

uctio

n,

AquacultureCapture

0

5000

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

0

50000

100000

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

1500

2000

n, 0

00 t

Other farmed productFarmed shrimpFarmed fishSea productCaptured Inland product

Production, ton

200000

250000

Thailand

Vietnam

500

1000

Pro

duct

io

50000

100000

150000

Prod

ucito

n,

019

95

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Year0

50000

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Fisheries Fisheries -- as as proportion of totalproportion of total

1500

800

1,000

proportion of totalproportion of total

Cambodia Laos

500

1000

GV

P, m

illion

200

400

600

800

GV

P, m

illio

n $

Cambodia

01993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

YearCrop Livestock Fisheries Fish - high estimate

01993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Year

Crop Livestock Fish low estimate

4000

5000

n

4000

5000

on $

Thailand Vietnam

1000

2000

3000

GVP

, mill

ion

0

1000

2000

3000

GVP

, mill

io

01995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

YearCrop Livestock Inland fisheries

01995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

YearCrop Livestock Fish low estimate

Total Thai fish , Mekong agriculture

Poverty related indicators These data were classified

by equal interval value. We indicators y qare testing with the different classifications as well (such

as the data distribution)

No agri land ownership (%) Non permanent structured Lack of food security (%)No agri. land ownership (%) Non-permanent structured house (%)

Lack of food security (%)

No TV (%) No cow and buffalo (%)No motorcycle (%)

Non-permanent structured house (%)-classified by four quantiles

Water constraintsDrought

Indicator- April NPP departure from longterm

mean April NPP

Flooded area (%)

No access to safe water within 150m (%)Malaria Incidence

(cases per 1000 people)No access to sanitation-toilet (%)

Mekong issuesMekong issues

•• Population ~60 m, +13m (18 %) to 2015, +58m Population ~60 m, +13m (18 %) to 2015, +58m (80 %) to 2050(80 %) to 2050(80 %) to 2050(80 %) to 2050

•• Economic development, increasing energy Economic development, increasing energy demands demands -- upstream hydropower developmentupstream hydropower development

•• Increasing food consumption, changed food Increasing food consumption, changed food g p , gg p , gdemandsdemands

•• Climate change, IPCC 2001Climate change, IPCC 20012020s2020s 2050s2050s 2080s2080s

Shorter more intense wet season longer moreShorter more intense wet season longer more

Temp change, Temp change, °°C C +1+1 +2+2 +3+3

Rain change, %Rain change, % +2+2 +4+4 +7+7Shorter more intense wet season, longer more Shorter more intense wet season, longer more intense dry seasonintense dry seasonMost systems (food & fibre production, Most systems (food & fibre production, ecosystems, health) vulnerableecosystems, health) vulnerable

•• Fisheries and delta irrigation fully exploited?Fisheries and delta irrigation fully exploited?•• Water quality / saline intrusion delta Water quality / saline intrusion delta DEM

Mekong Mekong issues 2issues 2issues 2issues 2

Dam development

Changing land use, shifting cultivation,sustainability, sedimentation

Seasonal waterSeasonal water shortage, poor soils, low rice productivity

Agricultural and dam development, downstream impacts

Fish & environmental impacts of upstream, Salinisation, water p p ,competition land quality, highly developed

What can change?What can change?(caution 1)(caution 1)(caution 1)(caution 1)

•• History of Cambodia History of Cambodia -- “rulers “rulers and great powers came andand great powers came andand great powers came and and great powers came and went; some were benign, went; some were benign, some oppressive; they some oppressive; they fought their battles andfought their battles andfought their battles and fought their battles and intrigues largely remote from intrigues largely remote from the daily lives of the the daily lives of the common people but couldcommon people but couldcommon people, but could common people, but could nevertheless greatly nevertheless greatly influence the common plight; influence the common plight; th l li d th i lith l li d th i lithe people lived their lives as the people lived their lives as best they could in spite of it best they could in spite of it all...”all...”

•• Be humble and realisticBe humble and realistic

What can change?What can change?(caution 2)(caution 2)(caution 2)(caution 2)

•• Great change occurring Great change occurring anywayanywayanywayanyway

•• Growing populationGrowing population•• Shift to urbanShift to urban•• Shift to urbanShift to urban•• Rising living standards Rising living standards

(uneven)(uneven)(uneven)(uneven)•• Trade and Trade and

communicationscommunicationscommunicationscommunications•• Hydropower developmentHydropower development

What can change?What can change?Small scaleSmall scaleSmall scaleSmall scale

•• No single solutionNo single solutionL lL l•• Local Local democratisation of democratisation of water governancewater governancewater governancewater governance

•• Rice Rice -- fish systems fish systems delta and elsewheredelta and elsewheredelta and elsewhere delta and elsewhere -- LaosLaos

•• Crop managementCrop management --Crop management Crop management fertilisersfertilisers

Fisheries growth Fisheries growth prospects?prospects?prospects?prospects?•• Demand will increase due to population increase Demand will increase due to population increase

and diet changeand diet changeand diet changeand diet change•• Expected increase ~ 1 m tonnes by 2020, 3.5 m Expected increase ~ 1 m tonnes by 2020, 3.5 m

tonnes by 2050tonnes by 2050•• Current growth rate unclear (uncertain estimates), Current growth rate unclear (uncertain estimates),

but maybe 0.5 m tonnes last ten years, mainly but maybe 0.5 m tonnes last ten years, mainly aquacultureaquacultureaquacultureaquaculture

1200000

1400000Change in measurements

400000

600000

800000

1000000

All f

ish,

tonn

es

0

200000

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

Laos Thailand Cambodia Vietnam VCH VMD

What can change?What can change?Medium scaleMedium scaleMedium scaleMedium scale

•• Balanced assessment of Balanced assessment of developmentsdevelopments -- Pak MunPak Mundevelopments developments Pak Mun, Pak Mun, Khone FallsKhone Falls

•• Agricultural productivityAgricultural productivity --Agricultural productivity Agricultural productivity low in Cambodia (soils, low in Cambodia (soils, varieties, fertilisation, varieties, fertilisation, management) and management) and Thailand (soils, Thailand (soils, ?f tili ti )?f tili ti )?fertilisation)?fertilisation)

Crop production, Crop production, growth prospects?growth prospects?g p pg p p

•• Demand will increase with Demand will increase with growing populationgrowing population

•• There is growth but ThailandThere is growth but Thailand•• There is growth, but Thailand There is growth, but Thailand and Cambodia could do better and Cambodia could do better with water (Thailand) and with water (Thailand) and fertilisersfertilisersfertilisersfertilisers

•• + 4m tonnes rice Thailand in + 4m tonnes rice Thailand in high agriculture / irrigation high agriculture / irrigation development scenariodevelopment scenario -- butbutdevelopment scenario development scenario but but would it destroy Tonle Sap fish?would it destroy Tonle Sap fish?

5.00

6.00

/ha

Laos

Thailand

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

Ric

e yi

eld,

ton/ Thailand

Cambodia

Vietnam

Vi t C t l0.00

1990 1995 2000 2005

Year

Vietnam CentralhighlandsVietnam MekongRiver Delta

Per capitaPer capita

•• Based on national Based on national statistics for yield and statistics for yield and Mekong social atlas for Mekong social atlas for populationpopulation

•• No or very modestNo or very modest•• No or very modest No or very modest increase, except increase, except Vietnam Vietnam -- exportexport

600

800

1000

1200

on, k

g/ca

pita Laos

Thailand

Cambodia

0

200

400

600

Ric

e pr

oduc

tio Cambodia

Vietnam

Vietnam CentralhighlandsVi t M k1990 1995 2000 2005

Year

Vietnam MekongRiver Delta

Livestock growth Livestock growth prospectsprospectsprospectsprospects•• There will be a shift to meat There will be a shift to meat

(especially Thailand)(especially Thailand)•• Not increasing as percentageNot increasing as percentage•• Not increasing as percentage Not increasing as percentage

or per capitaor per capita

80

100

% A

g Laos

20

40

60

VP o

f liv

esto

ck a

s Thailand

Cambodia

Vietnam

Vietnam Central

01990 1995 2000 2005

Year

GV Vietnam Central

highlandsVietnam MekongRiver Delta

40

50

apita Laos

10

20

30

40

P of

live

stoc

k, $

/ca

Thailand

Cambodia

Vietnam

0

10

1990 1995 2000 2005

Year

GVP Vietnam Central

highlandsVietnam MekongRiver Delta

What can change?What can change?Large scaleLarge scaleLarge scaleLarge scale

•• Strengthening the Strengthening the Mekong RiverMekong RiverMekong River Mekong River Agreement and other Agreement and other regional agreements.regional agreements.regional agreements. regional agreements.

•• Strengthening the Strengthening the (ineffectual?) MRC (ineffectual?) MRC ( )( )

•• Regional approaches Regional approaches to water, land and to water, land and ,,energyenergy

Dam developmentDam development

ChinaChinaPhnom Penh reachPhnom Penh reach

Increased dam storage for hydropowerIncreased dam storage for hydropower -- maximummaximum

Myanmar

Laos

Myanmar

Laos

Increased dam storage for hydropower Increased dam storage for hydropower maximum maximum development scenario of MRC: ~ 23,000 mcm China; development scenario of MRC: ~ 23,000 mcm China; 27,000 Thailand, Laos, Vietnam27,000 Thailand, Laos, Vietnam

Reduces flood peaks increases dry season flowsReduces flood peaks increases dry season flows

Thailand

Luang Prabang

Thailand

Luang PrabangReduces flood peaks, increases dry season flowsReduces flood peaks, increases dry season flows

Impact on flood dependent ecosystems and fisheries?Impact on flood dependent ecosystems and fisheries?

Phnom Penh Observed flowCalculated flow

VietnamCambodia

500 km

Tonle Sap

Phnom

VietnamCambodia

500 km500 km

Tonle Sap

Phnom 60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

c

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

Flow

, mc

0

10000

20000

1 12 23 34 45 56 67 78 89 100 111 122 133 144 155 166

Months

Dams and agriculture Dams and agriculture developdevelop

ChinaChina

ppPhnom Penh reachPhnom Penh reach

Increased dam storage for hydropower and increased Increased dam storage for hydropower and increased f d l ( l )f d l ( l )

Myanmar

Laos

Myanmar

Laos

areas of irrigated agriculture (one scenario only)areas of irrigated agriculture (one scenario only)

Dry season flows not increased as much as dam Dry season flows not increased as much as dam development only development only -- water diverted for irrigationwater diverted for irrigation

Thailand

Luang Prabang

Thailand

Luang Prabang~ 4m Tonnes extra rice vs impact on flood dependent ~ 4m Tonnes extra rice vs impact on flood dependent ecosystems and fisheries?ecosystems and fisheries?

Phnom Penh Observed flowCalculated flow

VietnamCambodia

500 km

Tonle Sap

Phnom

VietnamCambodia

500 km500 km

Tonle Sap

Phnom 60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

c

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

Flow

, mc

0

10000

20000

1 12 23 34 45 56 67 78 89 100 111 122 133 144 155 166

Months

Climate changeClimate change

ChinaChinaPhnom Penh reachPhnom Penh reach

Myanmar

Laos

Myanmar

Laos

Increased intensity of wet season Increased intensity of wet season

Greater flood peaksGreater flood peaks

More destructiveMore destructive but also may help preserve floodbut also may help preserve flood

Thailand

Luang Prabang

Thailand

Luang PrabangMore destructive More destructive -- but also may help preserve flood but also may help preserve flood dependent ecosystems and fisheriesdependent ecosystems and fisheries

VietnamCambodia

500 km

Tonle Sap

Phnom

VietnamCambodia

500 km500 km

Tonle Sap

Phnom 100000

120000

140000

m/m

CurrentClimate change

40000

60000

80000

flow

, mcm

0

20000

0 50 100 150 200months

Tensions will remainTensions will remain

•• Upstream Upstream -- downstreamdownstreamD l tD l t•• Development Development --environmentenvironment

•• HydropowerHydropower fossil fuelfossil fuel•• Hydropower Hydropower -- fossil fuelfossil fuel•• Big power Big power -- sharing riversharing river

Ri hRi h ( )( )•• Rich Rich -- poor (access)poor (access)

•• No easy answersNo easy answers

What can change?What can change?International?International?International?International?

•• “1000 projects”“1000 projects”Wh t th biWh t th bi•• What are the big What are the big issues?issues?

•• What are the gaps?What are the gaps?•• What are the gaps?What are the gaps?•• CoordinationCoordination

S th iS th i•• SynthesisSynthesis

BFP products and BFP products and disseminationdisseminationdisseminationdissemination

•• Synthesis reports Synthesis reports ddand mapsand maps

•• AgricultureAgriculture•• Fish Fish •• PovertyPovertyPovertyPoverty•• SynthesisSynthesis

SynthesisSynthesis

•• Poverty based on a range of indices Poverty based on a range of indices -- physical physical and socialand socialand socialand social

Probability that poverty is low, medium and high

DisseminationDissemination

•• ReportsReports•• Maps and datasetsMaps and datasets•• Workshops and Workshops and pp

visitsvisits•• Partnership inPartnership inPartnership in Partnership in

networks networks (SUMERNET)(SUMERNET)(SUMERNET)(SUMERNET)

•• Via the MRC Via the MRC (partner)(partner)(partner)(partner)

ImpactsImpacts

•• Follow on AusAID climate change projectFollow on AusAID climate change project•• Invited to comment on AusAID strategy for theInvited to comment on AusAID strategy for the•• Invited to comment on AusAID strategy for the Invited to comment on AusAID strategy for the

Mekong, and new AusAID water and climate Mekong, and new AusAID water and climate strategy (all regions)strategy (all regions)strategy (all regions)strategy (all regions)

•• Invited to do analogous integrated work at smaller Invited to do analogous integrated work at smaller scale in Krishna basin (ACIAR)scale in Krishna basin (ACIAR)a a ba ( )a a ba ( )

•• SUMERNETSUMERNET

•• Potential beyond this?Potential beyond this?

Data sourcesData sources

•• Many…..Many…..•• Climate river flowClimate river flow

Jan Feb Mar Apr Jan Feb Mar Apr

Climate, river flowClimate, river flow•• Agriculture, fisheriesAgriculture, fisheries•• Human, povertyHuman, poverty May Jun Jul Aug May Jun Jul Aug p yp y•• International datasetsInternational datasets•• MRC MRC -- social atlas, social atlas,

hydrology water usehydrology water use DDhydrology, water usehydrology, water use•• National databases National databases --

poverty, agriculture, poverty, agriculture,

Sep Oct Nov Dec Sep Oct Nov Dec

p y, g ,p y, g ,fishfish

•• Research literatureResearch literature•• Grey literatureGrey literature

> 200< 200< 175

Monthly NPP (Average for 1982-1993, g/m2/month)Monthly NPP (Average for 1982-1993, g/m2/month)

•• Grey literatureGrey literature < 150< 125< 100< 75< 50

General approachGeneral approach

•• Water use account Water use account •• Poverty surveyPoverty survey

•• Food productivity Food productivity --actual constraintsactual constraints

•• Poverty surveyPoverty survey

•• Poverty mappingPoverty mappingactual, constraints actual, constraints and opportunitiesand opportunities

•• Poverty mappingPoverty mapping

•• Linking poverty to Linking poverty to food and waterfood and waterfood and waterfood and water

•• Trends, constraints Trends, constraints and opportunities and opportunities pppp

Poverty Poverty -- water water modellingmodellingmodellingmodelling

•• Bayesian Bayesian t k d lt k d lnetwork modelnetwork model

Interested in areas with Higher incidence of

poverty Interested in areas with Higher incidence of

poverty

•• Low penetration Low penetration improved water improved water

cropland affected by drought

Given low water

p y(High: 42%>26% ) cropland affected by

drought

Given low water

p y(High: 42%>26% )

accessaccess Given low water supplies

Given low water supplies

Interested in areas with cropland affected by

drought

Lower incidence of poverty

(Low: 40%>23%)Interested in areas with

cropland affected by drought

Lower incidence of poverty

(Low: 40%>23%)

•• High High penetration penetration i d ti d t

Given high water supplies

Given high water supplies

improved water improved water accessaccess

What worked and What worked and what didn’twhat didn’twhat didn twhat didn t

•• Did…..Did…..•• Basin focus and overviewBasin focus and overviewBasin focus and overviewBasin focus and overview•• Mix of expertise Mix of expertise -- physical to social, systemsphysical to social, systems•• Basin tour Basin tour -- very importantvery important•• Participants with direct, long term experienceParticipants with direct, long term experience•• Water accountsWater accounts•• Livelihood assets approach to poverty with water based assetsLivelihood assets approach to poverty with water based assets•• Livelihood assets approach to poverty, with water based assets Livelihood assets approach to poverty, with water based assets

included in Bayesian modelincluded in Bayesian model•• Different issues and solutions in different areasDifferent issues and solutions in different areas•• Integrated issues Integrated issues -- eg energy and watereg energy and water

•• Didn’tDidn’t•• Didn t…..Didn t…..•• Water povertyWater poverty•• Who is it for Who is it for -- CPWF or basinCPWF or basin