mega-ships: do the benefits outweigh the costs to the ... · mega-ships: do the benefits outweigh...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Mega-ships: do the benefits outweigh the costs to the ... · Mega-ships: do the benefits outweigh the costs to the transport chain? Olaf Merk 1 June 2016 10th International Harbour](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040906/5e7b366c31f8f3377a3c6127/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Mega-ships: do the benefits outweigh the costs to the transport chain?
Olaf Merk
1 June 2016
10th International Harbour Masters Congress
Vancouver, Canada
![Page 2: Mega-ships: do the benefits outweigh the costs to the ... · Mega-ships: do the benefits outweigh the costs to the transport chain? Olaf Merk 1 June 2016 10th International Harbour](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040906/5e7b366c31f8f3377a3c6127/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Big is beautiful?
• Bigger ships
• Bigger costs, peaks, risks
• Bigger shipping lines
• Bigger ports and terminals
• Always bigger?
2
![Page 3: Mega-ships: do the benefits outweigh the costs to the ... · Mega-ships: do the benefits outweigh the costs to the transport chain? Olaf Merk 1 June 2016 10th International Harbour](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040906/5e7b366c31f8f3377a3c6127/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
“The Impact of Mega-Ships” Report
3
![Page 4: Mega-ships: do the benefits outweigh the costs to the ... · Mega-ships: do the benefits outweigh the costs to the transport chain? Olaf Merk 1 June 2016 10th International Harbour](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040906/5e7b366c31f8f3377a3c6127/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Bigger ships
4
Container ships
Bulkers
Passenger & Cruise
Tankers
Ro/Ro-ships
General cargo
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Sh
ip s
ize g
ro
wth
(d
wt;
10
0=
ind
ex)
![Page 5: Mega-ships: do the benefits outweigh the costs to the ... · Mega-ships: do the benefits outweigh the costs to the transport chain? Olaf Merk 1 June 2016 10th International Harbour](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040906/5e7b366c31f8f3377a3c6127/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Bigger container ships
5
![Page 6: Mega-ships: do the benefits outweigh the costs to the ... · Mega-ships: do the benefits outweigh the costs to the transport chain? Olaf Merk 1 June 2016 10th International Harbour](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040906/5e7b366c31f8f3377a3c6127/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Cost savings for shipping lines
6
,100 $
,150 $
,200 $
,250 $
,300 $
,350 $
,400 $
,450 $
5,000 7,000 9,000 11,000 13,000 15,000 17,000 19,000
US
$/
TE
U
Nominal TEU size
cost at 16 knots
cost at 22 knots
old units at 22 knots, contains first ~15,000 TEU units and hypothetical fast 19,000 TEU ship
modern units at 22 knots
old units at 16 knots, contains first ~15,000 TEU units and hypothetical fast 19,000 TEU ship
modern units at 16 knots
Assumptions: Round trip: 21,000 nm, three weeks tied up for port operations Average cost of main engine fuel: US$ 600/ton
Utilization of nominal capacity: 85%
8,500 TEU vessel built ~ 2003
![Page 7: Mega-ships: do the benefits outweigh the costs to the ... · Mega-ships: do the benefits outweigh the costs to the transport chain? Olaf Merk 1 June 2016 10th International Harbour](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040906/5e7b366c31f8f3377a3c6127/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Bigger costs for the transport chain
7
![Page 8: Mega-ships: do the benefits outweigh the costs to the ... · Mega-ships: do the benefits outweigh the costs to the transport chain? Olaf Merk 1 June 2016 10th International Harbour](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040906/5e7b366c31f8f3377a3c6127/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
8
![Page 9: Mega-ships: do the benefits outweigh the costs to the ... · Mega-ships: do the benefits outweigh the costs to the transport chain? Olaf Merk 1 June 2016 10th International Harbour](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040906/5e7b366c31f8f3377a3c6127/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
9
![Page 10: Mega-ships: do the benefits outweigh the costs to the ... · Mega-ships: do the benefits outweigh the costs to the transport chain? Olaf Merk 1 June 2016 10th International Harbour](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040906/5e7b366c31f8f3377a3c6127/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
10
![Page 11: Mega-ships: do the benefits outweigh the costs to the ... · Mega-ships: do the benefits outweigh the costs to the transport chain? Olaf Merk 1 June 2016 10th International Harbour](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040906/5e7b366c31f8f3377a3c6127/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
11
![Page 12: Mega-ships: do the benefits outweigh the costs to the ... · Mega-ships: do the benefits outweigh the costs to the transport chain? Olaf Merk 1 June 2016 10th International Harbour](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040906/5e7b366c31f8f3377a3c6127/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
12
![Page 13: Mega-ships: do the benefits outweigh the costs to the ... · Mega-ships: do the benefits outweigh the costs to the transport chain? Olaf Merk 1 June 2016 10th International Harbour](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040906/5e7b366c31f8f3377a3c6127/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
13
![Page 14: Mega-ships: do the benefits outweigh the costs to the ... · Mega-ships: do the benefits outweigh the costs to the transport chain? Olaf Merk 1 June 2016 10th International Harbour](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040906/5e7b366c31f8f3377a3c6127/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Bigger peaks
14
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
30/7 19/8 8/9 28/9 18/10 7/11 27/11 17/12
GT
Yard
AVG DAYS
GT daily volume of container shipsmoored over 50 000 GTGT daily volume of container shipsmoored <= 50 000 GT
![Page 15: Mega-ships: do the benefits outweigh the costs to the ... · Mega-ships: do the benefits outweigh the costs to the transport chain? Olaf Merk 1 June 2016 10th International Harbour](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040906/5e7b366c31f8f3377a3c6127/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Pressure on terminals
15
![Page 16: Mega-ships: do the benefits outweigh the costs to the ... · Mega-ships: do the benefits outweigh the costs to the transport chain? Olaf Merk 1 June 2016 10th International Harbour](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040906/5e7b366c31f8f3377a3c6127/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Bigger is not faster
16
![Page 17: Mega-ships: do the benefits outweigh the costs to the ... · Mega-ships: do the benefits outweigh the costs to the transport chain? Olaf Merk 1 June 2016 10th International Harbour](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040906/5e7b366c31f8f3377a3c6127/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
How much faster is possible?
17
![Page 18: Mega-ships: do the benefits outweigh the costs to the ... · Mega-ships: do the benefits outweigh the costs to the transport chain? Olaf Merk 1 June 2016 10th International Harbour](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040906/5e7b366c31f8f3377a3c6127/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
How much faster is possible?
18
![Page 19: Mega-ships: do the benefits outweigh the costs to the ... · Mega-ships: do the benefits outweigh the costs to the transport chain? Olaf Merk 1 June 2016 10th International Harbour](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040906/5e7b366c31f8f3377a3c6127/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Who is going to pay?
19
![Page 20: Mega-ships: do the benefits outweigh the costs to the ... · Mega-ships: do the benefits outweigh the costs to the transport chain? Olaf Merk 1 June 2016 10th International Harbour](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040906/5e7b366c31f8f3377a3c6127/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
More flexibility
20
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Container arrivals/departures by road transport per hour of day in 2014
![Page 21: Mega-ships: do the benefits outweigh the costs to the ... · Mega-ships: do the benefits outweigh the costs to the transport chain? Olaf Merk 1 June 2016 10th International Harbour](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040906/5e7b366c31f8f3377a3c6127/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
21
![Page 22: Mega-ships: do the benefits outweigh the costs to the ... · Mega-ships: do the benefits outweigh the costs to the transport chain? Olaf Merk 1 June 2016 10th International Harbour](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040906/5e7b366c31f8f3377a3c6127/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Bigger risks
22
![Page 23: Mega-ships: do the benefits outweigh the costs to the ... · Mega-ships: do the benefits outweigh the costs to the transport chain? Olaf Merk 1 June 2016 10th International Harbour](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040906/5e7b366c31f8f3377a3c6127/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Bigger risks
23
![Page 24: Mega-ships: do the benefits outweigh the costs to the ... · Mega-ships: do the benefits outweigh the costs to the transport chain? Olaf Merk 1 June 2016 10th International Harbour](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040906/5e7b366c31f8f3377a3c6127/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Bigger container shipping lines
24
![Page 25: Mega-ships: do the benefits outweigh the costs to the ... · Mega-ships: do the benefits outweigh the costs to the transport chain? Olaf Merk 1 June 2016 10th International Harbour](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040906/5e7b366c31f8f3377a3c6127/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Bigger shipping lines: alliances
25
![Page 26: Mega-ships: do the benefits outweigh the costs to the ... · Mega-ships: do the benefits outweigh the costs to the transport chain? Olaf Merk 1 June 2016 10th International Harbour](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040906/5e7b366c31f8f3377a3c6127/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Bigger terminals: alliances of terminals
26
![Page 27: Mega-ships: do the benefits outweigh the costs to the ... · Mega-ships: do the benefits outweigh the costs to the transport chain? Olaf Merk 1 June 2016 10th International Harbour](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040906/5e7b366c31f8f3377a3c6127/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Need for bigger ports?
27
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 10 20 30
Cu
mu
lati
ve m
ark
et
sh
are
(%
)
Rank
North Europe
Carriers
Ports
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 10 20 30
Cu
mu
lati
ve m
ark
et
sh
are
(%
)
Rank
Mediterranean
Carriers
Ports
![Page 28: Mega-ships: do the benefits outweigh the costs to the ... · Mega-ships: do the benefits outweigh the costs to the transport chain? Olaf Merk 1 June 2016 10th International Harbour](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040906/5e7b366c31f8f3377a3c6127/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Bigger ports
28
![Page 29: Mega-ships: do the benefits outweigh the costs to the ... · Mega-ships: do the benefits outweigh the costs to the transport chain? Olaf Merk 1 June 2016 10th International Harbour](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040906/5e7b366c31f8f3377a3c6127/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Can the ships be filled?
29
![Page 30: Mega-ships: do the benefits outweigh the costs to the ... · Mega-ships: do the benefits outweigh the costs to the transport chain? Olaf Merk 1 June 2016 10th International Harbour](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040906/5e7b366c31f8f3377a3c6127/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Where are we heading?
30
![Page 31: Mega-ships: do the benefits outweigh the costs to the ... · Mega-ships: do the benefits outweigh the costs to the transport chain? Olaf Merk 1 June 2016 10th International Harbour](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040906/5e7b366c31f8f3377a3c6127/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Cascade effects
31
![Page 32: Mega-ships: do the benefits outweigh the costs to the ... · Mega-ships: do the benefits outweigh the costs to the transport chain? Olaf Merk 1 June 2016 10th International Harbour](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040906/5e7b366c31f8f3377a3c6127/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Big, bigger, biggest: vicious circle?
32
Need to cut costs
Bigger ships
Overcapacity
Lower freight rates
![Page 33: Mega-ships: do the benefits outweigh the costs to the ... · Mega-ships: do the benefits outweigh the costs to the transport chain? Olaf Merk 1 June 2016 10th International Harbour](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040906/5e7b366c31f8f3377a3c6127/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
“The Impact of Mega-Ships” Report
33