meg spread

43
PTT Chemical Public Company Limited Analyst Briefing Presentation 2Q11 Operating Results 1

Upload: jaikumar4485

Post on 04-Oct-2014

169 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: MEG Spread

PTT Chemical Public Company LimitedAnalyst Briefing Presentation

2Q11 Operating Results

1

Page 2: MEG Spread

PTT Chemical Public Company Limited

Disclaimer

The information contained in our presentation is intended solely for your personal reference only. In addition, such information may contain projections and forward-looking statements that reflect the Company’s current views with respect to future events and financial performance. These views are based on assumptions subject to various risks. No assurance is given that future events will occur, that projections will be achieved, or that the Company’s assumptions are correct. Actual results may differ materially from those projected.

2

Page 3: MEG Spread

PTT Chemical Public Company Limited

Agenda

PTTCH 2Q11 Highlights

Market Overview

2Q11 Performance

Conclusions

3

Page 4: MEG Spread

PTT Chemical Public Company Limited

Agenda

PTTCH 2Q11 Highlights

Market Overview

2Q11 Performance

Conclusions

4

Page 5: MEG Spread

Market

PTT Chemical Public Company Limited

2Q11 Highlights

5

Operations & Business

Higher YoY production volumes from COD of new plants i.e. PTTPE cracker (1 Dec. 10), HDPE (I1 & Expansion) (1 Jan. 11), and

LDPE (1 Feb. 11) coupled with olefins plant I-1 and oleflex plants were shutdown for maintenance in the same period of last year

Some plants were shutdown for maintenance in this quarter; LLDPE (29 days) and MEG (30 days)

PTT’s No.1 gas pipeline’s leakage had impact on the Company’s production for only 5 days in 2Q11 (26-30 June). It also has slightly

impact in 3Q11 (1-12 July) as PTTPE has been shutdown from July 13-August 23 for turnaround during warranty period

Baht currency was depreciated further YoY, resulted in higher FX loss in 2Q11

Naphtha (MOPS) 977 (+40%) Ethylene (SEA) 1,291 (+19%) HDPE (SEA) 1,389 (+17%)

LLDPE (SEA) 1,380 (+12%) LDPE (SEA) 1,683 (+22%) MEG (SEA) 1,300 (+26%)

PE prices softened at the end of 2Q11 from de-stocking season, which led to weaker PE prices in June

A closure of Nanya’s MEG plants (1.9 MT) due to fire incidents at Formosa Group’s Mailiao Petrochemical Complex in May caused

MEG price rose to 1,300 USD/ton in 2Q11

Crude oil prices rose YoY from 78 USD/bbl in 2Q10 to 111 USD/bbl in 2Q11 due to higher demand, mainly from emerging markets,

ME political unrest, and OPEC decision not to uplift production. This led to a YoY rise in overall petrochemical product prices (cost-

push effect). 2Q11 Product Prices

Page 6: MEG Spread

PTT Chemical Public Company Limited6

Highlights

24 Feb

BoD meeting to approve amalgamation

Feb – Mar

Merged

Co.

Joint analyst Meeting Investor presentation

BoDapproval

Roadshow

AGM

JointShareholders

MeetingMoC SET

AGM to approve amalgamation

creditor objectionPeriod

21 Apr May-June

“Within 21st of October”

CreditorsObjection Period

Joint Shareholders Meeting to approve establishment of new company

Registration with Ministry of Commerce

Merger completed and New company listed to SET

AGM

Merged Co. Progress

Joint EGM shall be held within 6 months after getting an approval for amalgamation from shareholders on 21 April 2011 (AGM); thus

merger should be completed by 21 October 2011.

PTTCH’s creditors objection period and all consents were completed in June

9 integration teams has currently been working on workflow and culture alignment to be prepared for Day 1

Page 7: MEG Spread

PTT Chemical Public Company Limited7

Merged Co. Strategic Direction

“ To be a Leading Chemical Company in Asia Pacific ”

Page 8: MEG Spread

PTT Chemical Public Company Limited

Planned Shutdown

Propane feedstock supply problems

2010 2011

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

Plant I1 – Cracker 39 days

Plant I1 – Oleflex 59 days

44 days35 days

(21 June-25 July)

Plant I4-1 10 days* 41 days

Plant I4-2 12 days*

PTTPE – Cracker 42 days

(13 July-23 Aug)

HDPE-I 1 12 days 23 days

(20 July-12 Aug)

BPE (250 KT) 21 days

BPE Exp. (250 KT) 16 days

(16-31 July)

LLDPE (400 KT) 29 days 11 days

(1-8 Aug, 13-15 Aug)

TOCGC 18 days 43 days

1 June-13 July

Turnaround for 1-Year Warranty Period

Cleaning

Planned shutdown for maintenance

Cleaning and catalyst changing

Turnaround

8

* From GLOW’s electricity plants’ blackout

Page 9: MEG Spread

PTT Chemical Public Company Limited

Agenda

PTTCH 2Q11 Highlights

Market Overview

2Q11 Performance

Conclusions

9

Page 10: MEG Spread

PTT Chemical Public Company Limited10

Page 11: MEG Spread

PTT Chemical Public Company Limited11

-4,000

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

America Europe Middle East China Other Asia Additional demand

Unit : KMT

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

America5% Middle

East31%

Europe5%

China33%

Other Asia26%

Uncertainty of New Ethylene Capacity and Closure

Source : CMAI and PTTCH

Delay from plans

Morvarid PC Iran500 KTANov-09 to Jan-10

Sharq Saudi.1,200 KTAQ1-09 to Dec-09

Indian Oil India857 KMTQ4-09 to Q2-10

Borouge Qatar1,400 KMTQ2-10 to Q3-10

Ilam Iran458 KMTQ1-12 to Q1-15

ZRCC China1,000 KMTQ1-10 to Q2-10

SINOPEC Wuhan China800 KMTQ1-11 to Feb-13

Saudi Polymers Saudi1,200 KMTQ3-11 to Q1-12

Shanghai PC China600 KMTQ3-12 to Q1-14

Effective Net Supply

Additional (2011-2015) (Unit : MMT)

Supply Demand22.83 30.64

ExxonMobil Singapore1,000 KMTQ3-11 to Q3-12

Page 12: MEG Spread

PTT Chemical Public Company Limited12

Company Country KTA Q2-2011 Q3-2011 Q4-2011 Q1-2012 Q2-2012

LG Chem S. Korea 140

BASF/Yangzi PC China 150

Zhongyuan PC China 100

Saudi Polymers Saudi Arabia 1,200

Samsung Total PC S. Korea 150

Fushun PC China 800

ExxonMobil Singapore 1,000

Top New capacity during 2011 - 2012: Saudi Arabia 1,200 KTAChina 1,050 KTASingapore 1,000 KTA S. Korea 290 KTA

Planned Updated

Q1-10

Q3-12

Q1-11

Source : CMAI

Asia and ME Ethylene New Capacity

Year 2011 Year 2012

New Capacity MT 0.39 3.15

Effective Add. Capacity MT 0.17 2.38

Page 13: MEG Spread

PTT Chemical Public Company Limited13

Q - Q - Q - Q - Q - Q - Q - Q - Q - Q - Q - Q -

Ethylene Spread Propylene Spread

Q2-10 Q2-11 Diff 2010 2011EDiff

(10-11)

Spread (As of Aug-11)

Ethylene 389 314 -19% 363 276 -24%

Propylene 439 510 +16% 419 492 +17%

Olefins Price Movement & Outlook

Q2-11 situation (Y-o-Y): Olefins spread was inconsistent due to Supply side: 1. Higher feedstock cost.

2. Planned and unplanned shutdown of crackers /propylene on purpose plants in the region and Middle East.

Demand side: 1. Sluggish demand as resistance from downstream producers due to high feedstock cost and tighten monetary policy in China especially PE producers.2. However; demand improved higher from MEG producers.

Year 2011 Outlook: Olefins spread will be effected by

Supply side: 1. Uncertainty in energy and feedstock cost.

2. Planned turnaround in Asia and ME.

Demand side: Debts problem in Europe and US will pressure global

economic recovery and F/S price.

Ethylene SEA Propylene SEA

Naphtha MOPS

Price forecast by CMAI as of 5 Aug 2011

Page 14: MEG Spread

PTT Chemical Public Company Limited14

Page 15: MEG Spread

America2%

Middle East41%

Europe2%

China32%

Other Asia23%

PTT Chemical Public Company Limited15

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

America Europe Middle East China Other Asia Additional demand

Unit : KMT

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Delay from plans

Additional (2011-2015) (Unit : MMT)

Supply Demand8.60 10.68

Effective Net Supply

Fujian Ref. China 400 KTAQ1-09 to Sep-09

Dushanzi PC China600 KTAApr-09 to Sep-09

Tianjin PC China300 KTAQ4-09 to Jan-10

Borouge Qatar360 KMTQ2-10 to Q3-10

ZRCC China225 KMTQ1-10 to Q2-10

Indian Oil India475 KTAQ4-09 to Jun-10

SINOPEC WuhanChina300 KMTQ1-11 to Feb-13

Saudi PolymersSaudi.1,100 KMTQ3-11 to Q1-12

Sichuan PC China300 KMTQ3-12 to Q1-14

ExxonMobil Singapore325 KMTQ3-11 to Q3-12

Uncertainty of New HDPE Capacity and Closure

Source : CMAI and PTTCH

Page 16: MEG Spread

PTT Chemical Public Company Limited16

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

America Europe Middle East China Other Asia

Unit : KMT

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Delay from plans

Additional (2011-2015) (Unit : MMT)

Supply Demand6.19 7.53

Effective Net Supply

Fujian Ref. China 400 KTAApr-09 to Sep-09

Dushanzi PC China300 KTAApr-09 to Sep-09

Tianjin PC China300 KTAQ4-09 to Jan-10

Borouge Qatar180 KMTQ2-10 to Q3-10

ZRCC China225 KMTQ1-10 to Q2-10

Indian Oil India175 KTAQ4-09 to Q3-10

SINOPEC WuhanChina300 KMTQ1-11 to Feb-13

Shanghai PC China125 KMTQ3-12 to Q1-14

ExxonMobil Singapore975 KMTQ1-11 to Q3-12

Daqing PC China275 KMTQ2-11 to Q2-13

Middle East11%

China27%

Other Asia61%

Uncertainty of New LLDPE Capacity and Closure

Source : CMAI and PTTCH

Page 17: MEG Spread

PTT Chemical Public Company Limited17

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

America Europe Middle East China Other Asia

Unit : KMT

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Delay from plans

Additional (2011-2015) (Unit : MMT)

Supply Demand3.19 3.47

Effective Net Supply

Amir Kabir PC Iran300 KTAQ4-09 to Q4-10

America2%

Middle East46%Europe

21%

China23%

Other Asia8%

Uncertainty of New LDPE Capacity and Closure

Source : CMAI and PTTCH

Page 18: MEG Spread

PTT Chemical Public Company Limited18

Company Country KTA Q2-2011 Q3-2011 Q4-2011 Q1-2012 Q2-2012

HDPE New Capacity

Kayan Saudi Arabia 400

Chandra Asri PC Indonesia 50

Saudi Polymers Saudi Arabia 1,100

Fushun PC China 575

Honam PC S. Korea 210

ExxonMobil Singapore 325

LLDPE New Capacity

Chandra Asri PC Indonesia 50

Zhongyuan PC China 60

Evolue Japan Japan 40

Fushun PC China 225

ExxonMobil Singapore 650

ExxonMobil Singapore 325

LDPE New Capacity

QAPCO Qatar 300

Hanwha Chemical S. Korea 30

Asia and ME Polyethylene New Capacity

Company Country KTA Q2-2011 Q3-2011 Q4-2011 Q1-2012 Q2-2012

HDPE New Capacity

Kayan Saudi Arabia 400

Chandra Asri PC Indonesia 50

Saudi Polymers Saudi Arabia 1,100

Fushun PC China 575

Honam PC S. Korea 210

ExxonMobil Singapore 325

LLDPE New Capacity

Chandra Asri PC Indonesia 50

Zhongyuan PC China 60

Evolue Japan Japan 40

Fushun PC China 225

ExxonMobil Singapore 650

ExxonMobil Singapore 325

LDPE New Capacity

QAPCO Qatar 300

Hanwha Chemical S. Korea 30

Q1-11

Q3-12

Q3-12

Q1-10

Q3-12

Q3-12

Q1-10

Top New capacity during 2011 - 2012:Saudi Arabia 1,500 KTASingapore 1,300 KTAChina 860 KTAQatar 300 KTAS. Korea 240 KTA

Source : CMAI

Year 2011 Year 2012

HDPE LLDPE LDPE PE HDPE LLDPE LDPE PE

New Capacity MT 0.45 0.11 - 0.56 2.21 1.24 0.33 3.78

Effective Add. Capacity MT 0.425 0.04 - 0.465 1.751 0.678 0.33 2.759

Page 19: MEG Spread

PTT Chemical Public Company Limited19

Q - Q - Q - Q - Q - Q - Q - Q - Q - Q - Q - Q -

HDPE Spread LDPE Spread LLDPE Spread

Q2-10 Q2-11 Diff 2010 2011EDiff

(10-11)

Spread (As of Aug 11)

HDPE 99 99 - 148 168 +14%

LDPE 307 393 +28% 377 440 +17%

LLDPE 175 89 -49% 214 177 -17%

Polyethylene Price Movement & Outlook

Q2-11 situation (Y-o-Y):

PE spread was unstable due to

Supply Side: 1. Operational issues of some plants in Asia and Middle East.2. High energy and ethylene feedstock prices.

Demand Side: 1. Boosting up demand from restocking season for higher demand of plastic producers

2. Negative impact on demand was from the tightened monetary policy in China to cool down their economy.

Year 2011 Outlook: Supply Side: 1. Volatile crude and ethylene prices

2. Planned turnaround in Asia and Middle East.3. No new capacity brought on-steam.

Demand Side: Demand is expected to improve due to high season in 4Q. However, concerns about debt problems in Europe and US coupled with higher inflation in many countries and high energy prices may have negative impact on demand.

HDPE SEA

Ethylene SEA

Price forecast by CMAI as of 5 Aug 2011

LDPE SEA

LLDPE SEA

Page 20: MEG Spread

PTT Chemical Public Company Limited20

Page 21: MEG Spread

PTT Chemical Public Company Limited21

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

Europe India Middle East China

Unit : KMT

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Additional (2011-2015) (Unit : MMT)

Supply Demand3.60 7.49

Effective Net Supply

Ahead from plans

Delay from plans

Yansab Saudi.800 KTAJul-09 to Aug-09

Sharq Saudi.800 KTADec-09 to Aug-09

Shell Singapore750 KMTQ1-10 to Nov-09

Tongliao Jinmei China200 KTADec-09 to Apr-10

Sinopec Tianjin China420 KTADec-09 to Feb-10

Liaoning Huajin China220 KMTJan-10 to Mar-10

Sinopec ZhenhaiChina650 KMTJan-10 to Mar-10

Middle East39%

India6%

China58%

Uncertainty of New MEG Capacity and Closure

Source : CMAI and PTTCH

Europe

Page 22: MEG Spread

PTT Chemical Public Company Limited22

Company Country KTA Q2-2011 Q3-2011 Q4-2011 Q1-2012 Q2-2012

Global Biochem China 80

Saudi Kayan Saudi Arabia 15

PetroChina China 380

Yangzi PC China 60

Global Biochem China 80

Asia and ME MEG New Capacity

Source : PCI

Top New capacity during 2011 - 2012:China 600 KTASaudi Arabia 15 KTA

Source : PCI

Planned Updated

Year 2011 Year 2012

New Capacity MT 0.08 0.535

Effective Add. Capacity MT 0.047 0.502

Page 23: MEG Spread

PTT Chemical Public Company Limited23

MEG Price Movement & Outlook

Q - Q - Q - Q - Q - Q - Q - Q - Q - Q - Q - Q -

Spread MEG - . Ethylene

Ethylene SEA

Q2-10 Q2-11 Diff 2010 2011Diff

(10-11)

Spread (As of Aug-11)

MEG 124 340 +174% 208 412 +98%

Q2-11 situation (Y-o-Y): Supply Side: 1. No new supply from Asia and Middle East.

2. Planned and unplanned shutdown in Asia and Middle East.3. Increase in ethylene feedstock prices.

Demand Side: 1. Strong demand from downstream polyester and PET in China

Year 2011 Outlook: MEG spread is pressured by Supply Side: 1. Planned turnaround in Asia and Middle East.

2. Volatile in energy and feedstock cost.

3. Minimal MEG capacity will be added Demand Side: 1. Tight credit control measure from China government may

impact on demand.2. High seasonal demand of Polyester and PET business in 2nd half of year.

MEG CMP

Ethylene SEA

Price forecast by CMAI as of 5 Aug 2011

Page 24: MEG Spread

PTT Chemical Public Company Limited24

Page 25: MEG Spread

PTT Chemical Public Company Limited25

Oleochemicals Price Movement & Outlook

Q - Q - Q - Q - Q - Q - Q - Q -

Spread FA to . CPKO CPKO Fatty Alcohol

Q - Q - Q - Q - Q - Q - Q - Q - Q - Q - Q - Q -

Spread ME to . CPO CPO Methyl Ester

Methyl Ester (Local) Pricing

Fatty Alcohol Pricing

Un

it :

$/M

TU

nit

: $

/MT

Q2-10 Q2-11 Diff 2010 2011Diff

(10-11)

Spread (As of Aug11)

Methyl Ester 260 222 -15% 232 255 +10%

Fatty Alcohol * 331 637 +92% 348 426 +15%

Source : PTT Chemical

Page 26: MEG Spread

PTT Chemical Public Company Limited26

Methyl Ester (ME) : 2011 Domestic Market (Y-o-Y)• 2011’s overall spread is expected to increase from 2010 due to rising in CPO price

• Spread of 2Q11 was lower YoY, mainly from the new ME price formula started in 3Q10. The new ME price formula caused the ME

price lower than the old formula around 1 – 1.5 B/litre (30 - 40 USD/Ton)

• Price and Spread of ME in 2H11 is expected to be lower than 1H11 as CPO production will increase and be able to cover demand

Fatty Alcohol : 2011 International Market (Y-o-Y)

• Fatty Alcohol price , especially Fatty Alcohol C12-C14, has been increased significantly since the end of 2010 due to the increasing

demand in Oleochemical products and high feedstock cost.

• However, price of short chain fatty alcohol and some cuts of long chain fatty alcohol dragged the total fatty alcohol price due to the

demand slowdown in some end used applications.

• In 2Q11, spread for FA reached 637 USD/Ton, the highest level in the past few years due to the strong demand in Oleochemicals

especially on Mid-cut Fatty Alcohol C12-C14. It is expected that FA prices will be soften in 2H11 following by lower feedstock cost.

However, overall spread in 2011 will be improved from 2010.

Oleochemicals Price Movement & Outlook

Page 27: MEG Spread

PTT Chemical Public Company Limited27

2011Asia + ME Effective

AdditionalCapacity (KMT)

2011Asia + MEAdditional Demand

(KMT)

2011Surplus

PTTCH Portfolio(% by Capacity)

Price Spread ($/MT)

2010(Actual)

2011(Forecast)

Olefins :EthylenePropylene

3,2974,779

4,3073,024

-1,0101,755

57%47%10%

Olefins SEA – MOPS

363 419

276492

Polymers :HDPELLDPELDPE

1,430540270

1,3111,029530

119-489-260

30%16%8%6%

PE SEA – Ethylene SEA

148 214377

168177440

EO Based : MEG 758 1,207 -449

8%8%

MEG ASP – 63% Ethylene SEA

208 412

Oleochemical :ME

FA

5%4%

1%

ME – (CPO x 1.02)

232 255

FA – (CPKO x 1.20)348 426

2011 Margin Summary

Page 28: MEG Spread

PTT Chemical Public Company Limited

Agenda

PTTCH 2Q11 Highlights

Market Overview

2Q11 Performance

Conclusions

28

Page 29: MEG Spread

417,087

612,408

80%

85%

75%

78%

81%

84%

87%

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

2Q10 2Q11

Olefins

PTT Chemical Public Company Limited

YoY Production Volumes & U-Rates

tons tonstons

%

106,075

205,437

85%

103%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2Q10 2Q11

HDPE U-Rate

55,567

59,612

56%

60%

54%

55%

56%

57%

58%

59%

60%

61%

53,000

54,000

55,000

56,000

57,000

58,000

59,000

60,000

2Q10 2Q11

LLDPE U-Rate

82,039

47,041

83%

48%

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

2Q10 2Q11

MEG U-Rate

tons tons

Overall production volumes and utilization rates improved YoY except MEG due to plant shutdown for maintenance for 30 days in 2Q11

0

61,244

82%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

2Q10 2Q11

LDPE U-Rate

Note: 2Q10 based on olefins capacity of 1.863 MTA2Q11 based on olefins capacity of 2.888 MTA

Note: 2Q10 based on HDPE capacity of 500 KTA2Q11 based on HDPE capacity of 800 KTA

Note: 2Q10 and 2Q11 based on MEG capacity of 395 KTA

29

Olefins HDPE LLDPE

LDPE MEG

Page 30: MEG Spread

209,837

205,437

105%

103%

102%

103%

104%

105%

106%

200,000

205,000

210,000

215,000

1Q11 2Q11

HDPE U-Rate

PTT Chemical Public Company Limited

603,874

612,408

84%85%

70%72%74%76%78%80%82%84%86%88%90%

595,000

600,000

605,000

610,000

615,000

1Q11 2Q11Olefins U-Rate

QoQ Production Volumes & U-Rates

tonstons

89,040

59,612

89%

60%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

1Q11 2Q11

LLDPE U-Rate

tons

51,571

61,24469%

82%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

46,000

48,000

50,000

52,000

54,000

56,000

58,000

60,000

62,000

1Q11 2Q11

LDPE U-Rate

75,957

47,041

77%

48%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

1Q11 2Q11

MEG U-Rate

30

Olefins HDPE LLDPE

LDPE MEG

Page 31: MEG Spread

PTT Chemical Public Company Limited

18% 15%9%

18% 18% 17% 16%7%

19% 18% 17%22% 18% 14%

82% 85%91%

82% 82% 83% 84%93%

81% 82% 83% 78% 82% 86%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1Q/08 2Q/08 3Q/08 4Q/08 1Q/09 2Q/09 3Q/09 4Q/09 1Q/10 2Q/10 3Q/10 4Q/10 1Q/11 2Q/11

583 609 584 379 623 648 663 626 443 571 460 562 860 858

Naphtha portion was 14% in 2Q11 due to PTTPE’s cracker COD in Feb; therefore, more natural gas was used.

Feedstock Used

31

Page 32: MEG Spread

Olefins 239,367 190,110 191,986 26% 25%

HDPE 203,046 96,864 198,932 110% 2%

LLDPE 64,171 39,097 77,779 56% (21%)

LDPE 50,331 n.a. 37,953 n.a. 33%

MEG 54,425 82,599 72,724 (34%) (25%)

TOTAL 611,340 408,670 579,374 50% 6%

PTT Chemical Public Company Limited

Sales Volumes

Sales Volumes increased due to higher productionvolumes mainly from COD of new plants; however, MEGsales volumes decreased YoY and QoQ and LLDPEdecreased QoQ due to plant shutdowns for maintenance

32

2Q/11 2Q/10 1Q/11% Change

YoY QoQ

% Change

Page 33: MEG Spread

PTT Chemical Public Company Limited

Product Prices and Spreads

Product prices improved YoY due to global economyrecovery and higher crude oil price; while some slightlydecreased QoQ due to de-stocking season.

Spread; however, mostly decreased YoY and QoQ dueto higher naphtha cost

33

Unit: $/ton 2Q11 2Q10 1Q11 % Change % Change

YoY QoQ

Crude (Dubai) $/BBL 111 78 100 42% 11%

Naphtha (MOPS) 977 699 903 40% 8%

Ethylene (SEA) 1,291 1,088 1,238 19% 4%

HDPE (SEA) 1,389 1,187 1,372 17% 1%

LLDPE (SEA) 1,380 1,227 1,423 12% (3%)

LDPE (SEA) 1,683 1,383 1,731 22% (3%)

MEG (SEA) 1,300 1,030 1,250 26% 4%

Ethylene-Naphtha 314 389 335 (19%) (6%)

HPDE-Naphtha 412 488 469 (16%) (12%)

LLDPE-Naphtha 403 528 520 (24%) (23%)

LDPE-Naphtha 706 684 828 3% (15%)

MEG-0.63 Ethylene 487 345 470 41% 4%

Page 34: MEG Spread

PTT Chemical Public Company Limited

Sales Revenues Structure

Improving YoY Sales Revenues from 23,993 MB to 38,192 MB due mainly to higher sales volumes

Base Chemicals Polymers Performance Oleochemicals Inter. Business

23,993 MB

38,192 MB

2Q10 2Q1137%

27%

12%

8%

16%

34%

38%

8%

7%

13%

2Q10 2Q11

34

Page 35: MEG Spread

PTT Chemical Public Company Limited

Consolidated Financial Performances (YoY)

35

M.Baht % M.Baht % M.Baht % Change

Sales Revenue 38,192 100% 23,993 100% 14,199 59%

Feedstock Cost (23,735) (62%) (15,846) (66%) 7,889 50%

Gross Margin 14,457 38% 8,147 34% 6,310 77%

Processing Cost (4,587) (12%) (3,264) (14%) 1,323 41%

Other Revenue 899 2% 663 3% 236 36%

S&A Expenses (1,620) (4%) (1,324) (5%) 296 22%

EBITDA 9,148 24% 4,222 18% 4,927 117%

Depre.&Amort. (1,791) (5%) (1,284) (5%) 507 40%

EBIT 7,357 19% 2,938 12% 4,419 150%

Financing Expenses (479) (1%) (515) (2%) (36) (7%)

FX and Derivative Gain(Loss) (310) (1%) (48) 0% 262 546%

Share of profit of associates 571 1% 388 2% 183 47%

Profit attributable to Non-controlling interest (143) 0% (89) 0% 54 61%

Corporate Tax (564) (1%) (375) (2%) 189 50%

Net Profits 6,432 17% 2,299 10% 4,134 180%

EPS (Bt./Sh.) 4.24 1.53 2.71 177%

Unit: Mil. Baht 2Q/11 2Q/10 YoY

Page 36: MEG Spread

PTT Chemical Public Company Limited

Consolidated Financial Performances (QoQ)

36

M.Baht % M.Baht % M.Baht % Change

Sales Revenue 38,192 100% 35,373 100% 2,819 8%

Feedstock Cost (23,735) (62%) (22,049) (62%) 1,686 8%

Gross Margin 14,457 38% 13,324 38% 1,133 9%

Processing Cost (4,587) (12%) (3,902) (11%) 685 18%

Other Revenue 899 2% 743 2% 156 21%

S&A Expenses (1,620) (4%) (1,353) (4%) 267 20%

EBITDA 9,148 24% 8,812 25% 336 4%

Depre.&Amort. (1,791) (5%) (1,849) (5%) (58) (3%)

EBIT 7,357 19% 6,963 20% 394 6%

Financing Expenses (479) (1%) (513) (1%) (34) (7%)

FX and Derivative Gain(Loss) (310) (1%) (107) 0% 203 189%

Share of profit of associates 571 1% 255 1% 316 123%

Profit attributable to Non-controlling interest (143) 0% (118) 0% 24 21%

Corporate Tax (564) (1%) (301) (1%) 262 87%

Net Profits 6,432 17% 6,178 17% 254 4%

EPS (Bt./Sh.) 4.24 4.08 0.16 4%

Unit: Mil. Baht 2Q/11 1Q/11 QoQ

Page 37: MEG Spread

PTT Chemical Public Company Limited37

USD Liabilities

1 Engaged in 4Q072 Engaged in 1Q113 Engaged in 2Q11

Type of Liabilities Amount (MUSD)

1. USD Debentures 300

2. Cross Currency Swap 142

3. Forward Contract (Phase 1) 4002

1

4. Forward Contract (Phase 2) 1803

Total 1,022

Note: PTTCH’s hedging policy is approximately 80% of P2F Margin

Page 38: MEG Spread

PTT Chemical Public Company Limited

16,773 19,152 22,035

111,063 109,240 107,143

21,365 24,831 30,471

11,050 14,838 21,280

101,093 107,377 117,864

44,472 45,266 45,679

14,686 15,418 17,386

Unit: Million Baht

2009 2010 2Q11

180,929

160,251

168,056

Total Liabilities & Shareholders' Equity

Cash

CA

PP&E

Non-CA

Equities

Loans

Other

Liability

38

*

* PTTCH’s cash on hand was 17,451 MB while the rest was from subsidiaries

Page 39: MEG Spread

PTT Chemical Public Company Limited

14,668 14,782

29,138 28,628

2010 Q2 2011

THB USD&ForeignUnit : Bt mn

30 Jun 11 - Debt Structure & Cost

• Cost of long term debts ~ 5.1% (Include W/H Tax)

• % Total fixed-rate long term debt ~ 72%

(THB fixed-rate debt ~ 61%, Int. ~ 5.5%,

USD fixed-rate debt ~ 95%, Int. ~ 5.7%)

• Average Loan Life 5.4 Years

Consolidated L/T Debts ~ Bt 43.41 bnRepayment Schedule

(After Refinancing Drawn 2013-2015)

Conso. Debt Profile: Cost Control & Risk Mgt.

-0.9%

43,806 43,410

(67%)

(33%)

(66%)

(34%)

39

Unit : Bt mn

Page 40: MEG Spread

1.16

2.20

1.74

0.96

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

2008 2009 2010 2Q/2011

PTT Chemical Public Company Limited

Consolidated Key Financial Ratios

Net Debt/ EBITDA Net Debt/ Equity

Return on Asset Return on Equity

0.24

0.34

0.27

0.21

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

2008 2009 2010 2Q/2011

8.21

4.24

6.24

10.12

2

4

6

8

10

12

2008 2009 2010 2Q/2011

12.32

6.73

9.81

15.66

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2008 2009 2010 2Q/2011

40

Page 41: MEG Spread

PTT Chemical Public Company Limited

Agenda

PTTCH 2Q11 Highlights

Market Overview

2Q11 Performance

Conclusions

41

Page 42: MEG Spread

PTT Chemical Public Company Limited

Lower production volumes QoQ due to plants shutdown for maintenance; however,

Gas received from PTT is expected to be more stable, as the 34” pipeline was already repaired and

has resumed its operation since August 15

Product price is expected to sustain and/or slightly increase due to crackers turnaround in ME,

Taiwan and Singapore as well as higher demand from re-stocking season

2H11 Outlook

3Q11 Outlook

Minimal additional world capacities

Product prices is expected to remain at relatively high level, supported by high crude oil price

Demand for petrochemical products from Japan for reconstruction phase is expected to resume

More integration margins from downstream products, particularly from PTTPE

TOCGC’s suspended MEG capacity of 95 kta is expected to resume operation in late 3Q11

Conclusions

42

Page 43: MEG Spread

PTT Chemical Public Company Limited

Thank YouWebsite : WWW.PTTCHEMGROUP.COM

Contact IR Division:Tel. +662-265-8400 Ext. 8574,8533-4

Fax. +662-265-8500

43