© OECD/IEA 2014© OECD/IEA 2014

Medium-Term Gas Market ReportInternational Economic Forum of the Americas, MontrealJune 10, 2014Maria van der Hoeven, Executive Director, International Energy Agency

© OECD/IEA 2014

Air pollution issues encourage gas use in China

Gas demand in China will gain 150 bcm over 2013-19: this is 2 times UK’s gas consumption and 2 times China’s gas production growth

China’s gas demand by sector, 2013-19

© OECD/IEA 2014

Europe: flat and lacking options

Even in a context of anemic demand, Russia remains a large component of Europe’s supplies

European gas imports, 2000-19

© OECD/IEA 2014

Africa will be one of the fastest-growing regions

Africa’s thirst for natural gas means that most of the incremental production will be dedicated to the domestic market

Africa’s gas demand, 2000-19 (bcm)

© OECD/IEA 2014

The gas-price stalemate

The wide gap between US and Asian gas prices prompts Asian buyers to seek spot-indexed gas, invest in new LNG export regions or consider developing an Asian trading hub

Global gas prices, 2004-14

© OECD/IEA 2014

Demand grows at 2.2% per year

Demand in the FSU and Europe does not increase

Incremental gas demand by region, 2013-19

Africa8%Non-OECD Asia

15%

China30%Latin America8%

Middle East22%

OECD Americas10%OECD Asia Oceania6%

© OECD/IEA 2014

Supply is growing, but not all is available for export

OECD Americas and Asia Oceania will represent 40% of additional supply, while FSU production falls significantly behind

Incremental gas supply, 2013-19

© OECD/IEA 2014

Two OECD regions contribute 40% of the additional supply

150 bcm of LNG export capacity is under construction; much of that is coming from Australia

LNG liquefaction capacity, existing and under construction

© OECD/IEA 2014

Most of the new LNG will be consumed by Asia

Consequently, global LNG trade will rise from 320 bcm in 2013 to 450 bcm in 2019

LNG imports, 2013-19

© OECD/IEA 2014

LNG exports are crucial for Canada’s gas production

Canadian LNG liquefaction projects approved by NEB (May 2014)

Canada has to look at other export options than pipeline gas to the United States; LNG has therefore become crucial

© OECD/IEA 2014

Conclusions

China and non-OECD Asia

Europe

LNG – Australia and North America

Enough investment to meet demand in 2020s?

© OECD/IEA 2014© OECD/IEA 2014

Medium-Term Gas Market ReportInternational Economic Forum of the Americas, MontrealJune 10, 2014Maria van der Hoeven, Executive Director, International Energy Agency