measurement without numbers #1. measurement is an observation that reduces an uncertainty expressed...
TRANSCRIPT
Measurement without Numbers #1
Measurement
is an observation that reduces an uncertainty
expressed as a quantity.
Measurement
As a verb, measurement is making such observations.
BUT
It is not necessary to measure everythingwith numbers….
In fact, some things are best not measured with numbers…
Some things can best be observed….
Gaining information from
Observation
But, if we are going to do use observation,we need to be careful,
observation is not always as easy as it seems.
http://www.theinvisiblegorilla.com/videos.html
Some things disappear in plain sight.Other things are misperceived.
And, some are subliminal!
http://www.smart-words.org/count-number-f-sentence.html
A new study found that nearly 1 in 4 overweight American women believes her body weight is normal, while
conversely, around 1 in 6 normal weight women regards herself as overweight.
But…If a number must be given….
Observation:They almost always are in the form of counts
(frequency).
Observation:
Rule:
“Always believe what a person does before you believe what he or she says.”
Observation:
Can be of two kind:
Overt: Open to view…..
Observation:
Can be of two kind:
Overt: Subject open to view….. Or interruption…..
Observation:
Can be of two kind:
Non-overt: Subjects do not know they are being observed….
or are not interrupted…
Observation: Advantages
1. Can be more accurate.
Observation:1.Can be more accurate.2. May be easier.
Observation:1.Can be more accurate.2. May be easier.3. May be faster.
Observation:1.Can be more accurate.2. May be easier.3. May be faster.4. Some people can’t verbalize.
Observation:1.Can be more accurate.2. May be easier.3. May be faster.4. Some people can’t verbalize.5. Information not subject to memory errors.
Observation:1.Can be more accurate.2. May be easier.3. May be faster.4. Some people can’t verbalize.5. Information not subject to memory errors.6. What do people actually do?
Observation:
6. What do people actually do?
A driver!?
Observation:1.Can be more accurate.2. May be easier.3. May be faster.4. Some people can’t verbalize.5. Information no subject to memory errors.6. What do people actually do?7. Non-reactive.
Observation:1.Can be more accurate.2. May be easier.3. May be faster.4. Some people can’t verbalize.5. Information no subject to memory errors.6. What do people actually do?7. Non-reactive.
What does this mean?
Observation:7. Non-reactive.
Suppose that you asked someone what theiropinion was…..
Observation:7. Non-reactive.
Suppose that you asked someone what theiropinion was…..
You looked, but there wasno opinion…..
Observation:7. Non-reactive.
But the person is smart and thinks they shouldhave an opinion….
Observation:7. Non-reactive.
But the person is smart and thinks they shouldhave an opinion….
So they create one based on what they haveheardseen, orread.
Observation:7. Non-reactive.
That now becomes the person’s opinion!!
The opinion was created because an opinionwas asked for.
That is a REACTIVE measure.
Observation:7. Are Non-reactive.
Question:
Who is more likely to be influenced by propaganda?
The professor?
Or, the peasant?
Types of observations:
Types of observations:1. Audits
Types of observations:1.Audits Physical records
Types of observations:1.Audits
Physical records Sales audits
Types of observations:1.Audits
Physical recordsSales audits Pantry audits
Types of observations:1.Audits
Physical records Coupon redemption
Sales auditsPantry audits
Types of observations:1. Audits 2. Trace Analysis
Physical traces of past behavior…
Types of observations:1. Audits Erosion2. Trace Analysis
Physical traces of past behavior…
Types of observations:1. Audits Accretion2. Trace Analysis
Physical traces of past behavior…
Types of observations:1. Audits 2. Trace Analysis
Physical traces of past behavior…ErosionAccretion
Magazine collection
Types of observations:1. Audits 2. Trace Analysis
Physical traces of past behavior…ErosionAccretion
Magazine collectionGarbage research
Why garbage research?
Types of observations:1. Audits 2. Trace Analysis3. Content Analysis
Look at the content of communications.
58 64 69 74 80 85 90 95 033.5
34
34.5
35
35.5
36
36.5
37
37.5
38 LegendBustHipsLinear TrendLinear Trend
Centerfold Models 1954-2000
Types of observations:1. Audits 2. Trace Analysis3. Content Analysis
Look at the content of communicationsand advertisements.
It is possible to understand the marketingstrategy of a companyby studying its ads.
De-construction
Gender roles can bestudied by inspectingthe content of ads.
Changes in culture and politicscan be studied.
Types of observations:1. Audits 2. Trace Analysis3. Content Analysis
Graphology
Types of observations:1. Audits 2. Trace Analysis3. Content Analysis
Graphology License Plates, etc.
Where do gamblers come from?
Types of observations:1. Audits 2. Trace Analysis3. Content Analysis4. Mechanical Observation
Types of observations:1. Audits 2. Trace Analysis3. Content Analysis4. Mechanical Observation
Stand-alone devices
Types of observations:4. Mechanical Observation
Facilitating devices
Types of observations:4. Mechanical Observation
Facilitating devicesTachistoscopes
Types of observations:4. Mechanical Observation
Facilitating devicesGalvanometers
Types of observations:4. Mechanical Observation
Facilitating devicesEye Cameras
Types of observations:4. Mechanical Observation
Facilitating devices Timers (RT)
Types of observations:4. Mechanical Observation
Voice-Pitch analysis
This raises an interesting issue!
An instruments is accurate 65% of the timein identifying a lie.
Correct
Wrong
Lie Told
Does this mean that it is a good instrument?
The company markets the instrument by reporting how many lies it detects…
Why is this deceptive advertising?
Correct
Wrong
Truth Told
A person gets 40 messages, 20 are true and 20 are false.The instrument correctly identifies 13 of the false as false,and 7 false as true. If the instrument was 100% accurate in
finding true to be true, it would now identify 27 as true when only 20 were true (74%).
Further, suppose a detector said that every statement was a lie…..
What percent of lies would it detect?
Types of observations:4. Mechanical Observation
Facilitating devicesTimers (RT) Voice-Pitch analysisBrain-wave research
Types of observations:4. Mechanical Observation
Facilitating devicesTimers (RT) Voice-Pitch analysisBrain-wave researchCAT, fMRI Scans
(and others)
Problems with observation:1.Need high frequency behavior, or very expensive behavior
Problems with observation:1. Need high frequency behavior2. It may be biased… must observe the observers
Problems with observation:1. Need high frequency behavior2. It may be biased… must observe the observers3. Maybe unethical or illegal.
Problems with observation:1. Need high frequency behavior2. It may be biased… must observe the observers3. Maybe unethical or illegal. 4. Basic problem!!
Problems with observation:1. Need high frequency behavior2. It may be biased… must observe the observers3. Maybe unethical or illegal. 4. Basic problem!!
Observation never tells you WHY.