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Deloitte GCC Powers of Construction 2013 Construction section overview

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Page 1: Me Real-estate Gcc Construction Ppt 13

Deloitte GCC Powersof Construction 2013Construction sectionoverview

Page 2: Me Real-estate Gcc Construction Ppt 13

GCC construction sector

UAE construction sector

KSA construction sector

Qatar construction sector

Kuwait construction sector

Oman construction sector

Bahrain construction sector

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Contents

Page 3: Me Real-estate Gcc Construction Ppt 13

GCC Powers of Construction 2013 • Construction sector overview • 3

Preamble

• The following document gives an overview of the construction industry in the GCC region

• Under each of the GCC countries, we set out indicators of value and growth and listed key themes and projects in the market

• A number of sources are used including (but not limited to):- Business Monitor International (BMI)- Middle East Economic Digest (MEED)

• A number of different indicators/predictors of the level of construction industry activity were used, including:- Contracts awarded during a specific calendar year- Projects planned or underway at a current point in time- Construction industry value ▪ This is a measure of the output, derived from GDP, of the construction industry over the reported 12-month period in a nominal value

Page 4: Me Real-estate Gcc Construction Ppt 13

GCC Powers of Construction 2013 • Construction sector overview • 4

GCC construction sector Overview of construction industry

Country Overview Capital Area (sq km) Currency

UAE • The UAE is a federation of seven emirates, of which Abu Dhabi is the largest in area• After gaining Foreign direct investment (FDI) to exploit oil and gas, the UAE has diversified into a prosperous economy

Abu Dhabi 83,600 • UAE DirhamPegged to USD = 3.675 dirham

Saudi Arabia • KSA is one the largest economies in the world, accounting for c.55% of total GCC GDP• Oil accounts for c.90% of exports and 75% of government revenue, which is being used to facilitate an infrastructure boom

Riyadh 2,150,000 • Saudi RiyalPegged to USD = 3.745 riyal

Qatar • Qatar has one of the highest levels of GDP per capita in the world, mainly driven by oil, natural gas and other petrochemicals revenue

• Oxford Business Group reports that the current Emir is initiating liberalising changes to steer the economy towardsdiversification

Doha 11,521 • Qatari RiyalPegged to USD = 3.64 riyal

Kuwait • Kuwait is slowly beginning to diversify its economy, with the hope of reducing dependency on oil revenue• However, it remains relatively closed-minded towards new inward investment

Kuwait City 17,818 • Kuwaiti Dinar- Abandoned $ peg in 2007- Pegged to a currency basket- USD = 0.282 dinar in 2013

Oman • Oman is regarded as one of the more conservative and traditional GCC states, where the local citizens are still a majority ofthe total population

• The construction industry is beginning to see returns from the diversification policies instigated under the Vision 2020 plan

Muscat 309,500 • Omani RialPegged to USD = 0.3850 rial

Bahrain • The Kingdom of Bahrain is an island country in the Persian Gulf and is relatively highly diversified away from oil• There is a major infrastructure overhaul in progress, aiming to cement Bahrain’s place as the gateway to the Northern Gulf

Manama 712 • Bahraini DinarPegged to USD = 0.376 dinar

Key characteristics

Page 5: Me Real-estate Gcc Construction Ppt 13

39%

30%

3%

10%

6%

12%

Value of GCC projects planned or underway as at 28 February 2013

Saudi Arabia

UAE

Bahrain

Kuwait

Oman

Qatar

GCC Powers of Construction 2013 • Construction sector overview • 5

GCC construction sectorOverview of construction industry

• According to the Middle East Economic Digest (MEED), the value of construction and infrastructurecontract awards in the GCC fell by almost 18 per cent in 2012, with USD 51.9bn of contracts awardedduring the calendar year compared with USD 63.4bn in 2011.

• In terms of contract awards, the UAE replaced KSA as the GCC’s largest construction market in 2012with USD 16.2bn, 4 per cent more than the USD 15.6bn of contracts awarded in Saudi Arabia. ▪ This is the first time since 2008 that KSA has not recorded the largest value of construction awards inthe region.- The largest contract awarded in the UAE was the joint venture led by Turkey’s TAV to build theMidfield Terminal building at Abu Dhabi International airport worth USD 2.8bn.- The largest construction deal awarded in Saudi Arabia in 2012 was the deal awarded to expand theMasjid al-Haram in Medina. This will increase the capacity of the mosque from 600,000 to 1 millionworshippers at an estimated cost of USD 1.5bn.

• Qatar was the third most active GCC construction market in 2012, with USD 10.4bn worth of contractsawarded. - Transport infrastructure dominated Qatar’s construction sector, with four of the five biggest contractsawarded for major transport projects.

• Kuwait was the fourth most active construction market in 2012, with USD 8bn worth of deals awarded.- The largest of these was the long-awaited USD 2.6bn deal to build the Subiya Causeway, which hadbeen in the pipeline for almost a decade.

Source: MEED

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Construction spend throughout GCC (2013 - 2015) (incl projects under study, design, bidding & execution)

BahrainKuwaitOmanQatarSaudi Arabia

UAE

Page 6: Me Real-estate Gcc Construction Ppt 13

GCC Powers of Construction 2013 • Construction sector overview • 6

GCC construction sectorU.A.E.

2008 Actual 2009 Actual 2010 Actual 2011 Actual 2012 Estimate 2013 Forecast 2014 Forecast

GDP

Nominal GDP (USD m) 314,451 259,698 283,877 338,644 391,082 455,479 514,756

Real GDP growth (%) 3.2 -4.8 1.3 4.2 3.4 3.7 4.7

Origin of GDP (% real change)

Agriculture -10.9 -0.4 -1.8 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1

Industry 2.7 -6.6 1.7 5.3 3.8 3.5 4.2

Services 4.1 -2.7 0.9 2.9 3.0 4.0 5.3

Population and income

Population (m) 6.8* 6.5* 6.7* 7.1* 7.5 7.9 8.4

GDP per head (USD at PPP) 55,161* 54,890* 54,484* 55,098* 55,083 55,076 55,437

Fiscal indicators (% of GDP)

Government revenue 39.1 26.8 30.0 35.4 33.5 30.6 29.2

Government expenditure 22.3 39.6 32.2 32.3 29.1 27.5 25.4

Government balance 16.8 -12.8 -2.2 3.1 4.4 3.1 3.8

Net public debt 37.6* 57.3* 53.6* 45.9* 40.3 34.8 30.7

Prices and financial indicators

Consumer prices (av; %) 12.3 1.6 0.9 0.9 0.7 1.5 2.5

Lending interest rate (av; %) 7.8* 5.9* 5.2* 4.7* 4.7 4.8 4.9

Source: Economic Intelligence Unit

Macroeconomic data

*The Economist Intelligence Unit estimates.

Page 7: Me Real-estate Gcc Construction Ppt 13

Crime and theft

Government instability/coups

Tax regulations

Poor public health

Corruption

Tax rates

Inadequate supply of infrastructure

Foreign currency regulations

Insufficient capacity to innovate

Poor work ethic in national labor force

Policy instability

Inefficient government bureaucracy

Inflation

Inadequately educated workforce

Access to financing

Restrictive labor regulations

0 5 10 15 20 25% responses

Global competitiveness - The most problematic factors for doing business

GCC Powers of Construction 2013 • Construction sector overview • 7

GCC construction sectorU.A.E.

Source: World Economic Forum Report 2012-2013

Page 8: Me Real-estate Gcc Construction Ppt 13

GCC Powers of Construction 2013 • Construction sector overview • 8

GCC construction sectorU.A.E.

Strengths

• Government-supported infrastructure spending in transport and utilities will intensify as a means ofdiversifying the economy away from oil, in addition to keeping the population quiescent at a time ofwider unrest.

• A clear regulatory environment and the governing of private investments in infrastructure create afavourable investment climate.

• State-owned utilities (ADEWA, DEWA) are willing to take on majority equity stakes in projects andprovide government guarantees in a bid to attract investors.

Opportunities

• The decline in cement and steel prices in the region reduces the cost of new projects.

• The construction industry remains one of the largest sectors in the UAE, after oil & gas, as thecountry tries to transform its oil-dependent economy by spending billions of dollars on itsinfrastructure and tourism sectors.

• Government willingness in Dubai and Abu Dhabi to allow private participation in infrastructure stillappears high.

• The UAE is becoming a hub for renewables and green tech, with Masdar spearheading newventures.

Weaknesses

• Rising unemployment as a result of the sector's contraction, which occurred following 2008'srecession.

• Previously rapid growth in the residential and commercial construction sector has not been matchedby an equally rapid growth in local utilities sectors. This has resulted in new buildings not havingaccess to power and water, potentially for years, making them unusable.

Threats

• Political stability remains a key threat; with many countries still in a state of political flux andcontagion not contained, the situation remains volatile, all of which adds to the ongoing globalfinancial turbulence that continues to dry up capital and dampen investor sentiment.

Source: Business Monitor International

Page 9: Me Real-estate Gcc Construction Ppt 13

U.A.E. construction industry• According to Business Monitor International (BMI), the UAE’s construction industry value is forecast atapproximately USD 41bn in FY13, representing a real value annual growth of 4.5%.

• MEED estimates the total value of projects planned or underway in the UAE at USD 549bn as at 28 Feb 2013.

• Transport amounts to 13% of the total UAE construction spend.- Within the UAE, road and bridge projects currently underway or in the planning phase amount to USD 58bn. - Phase 2 of the Etihad Railway Network is currently tendering and construction is scheduled to start inearly 2013. The whole project, which has a value of USD 11bn and is part of the wider GCC RailwayNetwork valued at over USD 100bn, will provide a significant boost to the local construction industry.- Abu Dhabi International Airport has also launched a mega project, the purpose of which is to increasethe capacity of the airport from 11mn passengers to 30mn passengers annually. ▪ The cost of the project will amount to USD 6.8bn.▪ Construction was scheduled to begin in Q2 2012, with completion due in Q1 2017.

• Although residential construction only accounts for 3% of total UAE construction spend, there are majorprojects underway.- According to the UAE's President, HH Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed al Nahyan, the UAE is set to start amassive housing project replacing 12,500 houses built before 1990, at a cost of USD 2.7bn.

• Energy and resources accounts for 19% of the total construction spend.- The nuclear power project in Abu Dhabi has been plagued by project delays and cost inflation.▪ The cost estimate has risen by a staggering USD 10bn since its initial announcement, taking the totalto USD 30bn.

- Dubai has an ambitious plan to build a USD 3bn, 1,000-megawatt combined solar park. Ifimplemented, it would become the largest in the world.

GCC Powers of Construction 2013 • Construction sector overview • 9

GCC construction sectorU.A.E.

30% Share of GCC’s project market (planned or underway) as at 28 Feb 2013

5.3% Estimated annual average growth between 2013 and 2021 in UAE constructionsector

2.7% Cement consumption growth 2013 (year-on-year percentage)

USD 95bn Total capital investment estimated in 2013

6,384,800 Estimated total construction workforce in the UAE in 2013

Source: Business Monitor International

Construction industry value, USD bn Construction industry, % of GDP

0

2.0

4.0

6.0

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10.0

12.0

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2011 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f

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Estimated construction growth - UAE

Note: “e”: estimate; “f”: forecast

Page 10: Me Real-estate Gcc Construction Ppt 13

GCC Powers of Construction 2013 • Construction sector overview • 10

GCC construction sectorU.A.E.

Examples of major projects Value (USD bn)

Transport

Etihad Rail 11.0

Dubai Int Airport Concourse 4 and Terminal 4 expansion 7.8

Dubai Metro 7.6

Abu Dhabi International Airport expansion 6.8

Al Maktoum International Airport 3.3

Dubai International Concourse 3 3.0

Abu Dhabi Metro 3.0

Mafraq-Ghweifat highway PPP 2.7

Energy and utility

Abu Dhabi Nuclear Power Plant 30.0

IGCC plant, Dubai 6.0

Gas processing facilities, Abu Dhabi 7.0

Shuweihat 2 IWPP 5.6

Oil storage terminal in Fujairah 5.5

Residential

Dubailand 91.0

Al Ain Aviation City 37.0

Total value of projects planned or underway = USD 549bn (MEED)

U.A.E. project market

Source: Business Monitor International

Source: Business Monitor International

Transport

Residential

Energy & Resources

HealthcareCommercial

Industrial

13%

19%62%

1%3% 2%

Construction project value breakdown per sector in the UAE

Page 11: Me Real-estate Gcc Construction Ppt 13

GCC Powers of Construction 2013 • Construction sector overview • 11

GCC construction sectorK.S.A.

2008 Actual 2009 Actual 2010 Actual 2011 Actual 2012 Estimate 2013 Forecast 2014 Forecast

GDP

Nominal GDP (USD m) 5,522 4,367 5,268 6,695 7,497 7,557 7,901

Real GDP growth (%) 4.2 0.1 4.7 7.0* 5.7 4.1 4.9

Origin of GDP (% real change)

Agriculture 0.7 -0.5 -1.0 2.2 -0.5 -0.3 -1.0

Industry 4.4 -3.4 4.7 8.2 6.6 3.5 4.8

Services 4.6 4.3 5.0 6.6 5.2 5.2 5.0

Population and income

Population (m) 25.5 26.3 27.1* 28.0* 28.9 29.8 30.8

GDP per head (USD at PPP) 26,580 26,018 26,775* 28,361* 29,614 30,483 31,628

Fiscal indicators (% of GDP)

Government revenue 53.2 31.1 37.5 43.9* 43.1 37.5 36.1

Government expenditure 25.1 36.4 33.1 32.0* 30.3 33.3 34.9

Government balance 28.1 -5.3 4.4 12.0* 12.7 4.3 1.2

Net public debt 16.1 19.3 14.1* 11.2* 11.1 11.9 10.6

Prices and financial indicators

Consumer prices (av; %) 9.9 5.1 5.4 5.0 4.5 4.4 3.3

Deposit rate (av; %) 2.9 1.2 1.2* 1.2* 1.1 1.0 1.2

Macroeconomic data

Source: Economic Intelligence Unit

*The Economist Intelligence Unit estimates.

Page 12: Me Real-estate Gcc Construction Ppt 13

GCC Powers of Construction 2013 • Construction sector overview • 12

GCC construction sectorK.S.A.

Government instability/coups

Poor public health

Crime and theft

Tax regulations

Foreign currency regulations

Policy instability

Inflation

Tax rates

Corruption

Inadequate supply of infrastructure

Insufficient capacity to innovate

Poor work ethic in national labor force

Inefficient government bureaucracy

Access to financing

Inadequately educated workforce

Restrictive labor regulations

0 5 10 15 20 25

% responses

Global competitiveness - The most problematic factors for doing business

Source: World Economic Forum Report 2012-2013

Page 13: Me Real-estate Gcc Construction Ppt 13

GCC Powers of Construction 2013 • Construction sector overview • 13

Strengths

• Saudi Arabia has the largest construction sector in the Middle East. Alongside active governmentspending, efforts are also being made to increase private investment. Government-led activityboosted by oil windfalls is driving demand in the construction industry.

• The Ninth Development Plan for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia sets out plans to invest SAR 1,444bn(US$385bn) in social and economic infrastructure between 2010 and 2014.

• The total value of contracts issued in the Kingdom's construction sector grew by 50% year-on-yearin H212 (following a 140% y-o-y increase in awards during 2011).

Opportunities

• The number of ongoing mega-projects means that many multinational firms have a presence in thecountry.

• Increasing private investment should provide opportunities for large foreign contractors to increasetheir involvement in the country.

• As other construction industries in the Gulf stagnate, construction companies look to Saudi Arabiafor opportunities.

• Saudi Arabia remains a 'construction safe heaven' amid both wider political and financial turmoil.

Weaknesses

• The industry is heavily reliant on government contracts rather than a free market driven by theprivate sector. Furthermore, due to delays in government payment (largely due to red-tape andinefficient bureaucracy), government contracts can remain unpaid for months.

• The country has a persistent unemployment problem. According to the government, unemploymentamong Saudi nationals reached 11.0% at the end of 2011.

• The country is facing a power crunch. However, significant investment is being made to meet futuredemand through the construction of numerous power plants.

Threats

• The Arab Spring, which created instability in numerous countries in the Middle East and North Africaregion, catalyzed some discontent in Saudi Arabia. While this was short-lived and quickly contained,it remains a risk.

• The death of crown prince Sultan bin Abdul-Aziz Al Saud raises questions over succession and couldbe a potential source of instability.

GCC construction sectorK.S.A.

Page 14: Me Real-estate Gcc Construction Ppt 13

GCC Powers of Construction 2013 • Construction sector overview • 14

GCC construction sectorK.S.A.

K.S.A construction industry• KSA’s construction industry value is forecast at approximately USD 30bn in FY13, representing a realvalue annual growth of 4.5%.

• MEED estimates the value of projects planned or underway in KSA at USD 732bn as at 28 Feb 2013.

• Under the Ninth Development Plan, the KSA government aims to invest USD 385bn in social andeconomic infrastructure between 2010 and 2014:- USD 16.5bn revamp of the transport system in the holy city of Mecca.- Hotel capacity to increase to 53,000 rooms.- USD 9.4bn high-speed rail-line connecting Mecca with Medina.- USD 66bn was pledged for housing alone, with 500,000 new units in the pipeline.

• Energy and resources accounts for 47% of the total construction spend within KSA.- As part of a diversification strategy, KSA plans to use solar energy to generate 10% of its electricityneeds by 2020. ▪ This will create 15,000 jobs through the development of solar farms and the establishment offactories.▪ Over USD 800mn has been invested in solar energy plants in Yanbu Port in the Madina region andJubail in the Eastern Province.

• Transportation makes up 20% of total construction spend within KSA.- The expansion of King Abdulaziz International Airport (Jeddah International Airport) is the largestproject under way in the aviation sector.▪ The project will cost USD 7.2bn.▪ The capacity will be increased from 17mn to 30mn passengers annually.

• With almost USD 25bn at bidding stage or under development in the rail sector, KSA is looking toimprove its rail network.- Adding 3,900km of track through three major railway projects.

Construction industry value, USD bn Construction industry, % of GDP

0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

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2011 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f

Estimated construction growth - KSA

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Source: Business Monitor International

39% Share of GCC’s project market (planned or underway) as at 28 Feb 2013

539Schools to be built in addition to the 1,900 schools currently under construction andmore than 750 schools completed in FY2012

60% Plan to increase hotel capacity

1.25 m New housing units are scheduled for completion by end of 2014

92% Percentage oil receipts made up of total revenue in 2012

USD 146bnThe total value of delayed projects estimated by Saudi Arabian contractors in July2012.

Page 15: Me Real-estate Gcc Construction Ppt 13

GCC Powers of Construction 2013 • Construction sector overview • 15

GCC construction sectorK.S.A.

K.S.A. project market

Source: Business Monitor International

Source: Business Monitor International

Examples of major projects Value (USD bn)

Transport

Jazan, Abha, Al Qasim Airports 10.7

King Abdulaziz International airport 7.2

Saudi Landbridge Railway 7.0

Jeddah Monorail 5.6

Phase one of Mecca Mass Rail Transit project (MMRT) 5.3

Energy and utility

16 nuclear reactors 100.0

Ras Al Zour combined desalination and power plant 5.0

Multi-effect desalination plant, Yanbu 4.3

Construction and social infrastructure

Grand Mosque expansion, Mecca 21.3

Jubail refinery scheme 20.0

University building projects 20.0

Jubail refinery scheme 12.0

Total value of projects planned or underway = USD 732bn (MEED)

Transport Commercial

Social Infrastructure

Energy & Resources

Education Healthcare

Industrial

20%

47%

1%

8%

6%

1%

17%

Construction project value breakdown per sector in the KSA

Page 16: Me Real-estate Gcc Construction Ppt 13

GCC Powers of Construction 2013 • Construction sector overview • 16

GCC construction sectorQatar

2008 Actual 2009 Actual 2010 Actual 2011 Actual 2012 Estimate 2013 Forecast 2014 Forecast

GDP

Nominal GDP (USD m) 115,270 97,798 127,332 173,320 194,344 198,310 205,088

Real GDP growth (%) 17.7 12.0 16.7 13.0 5.8 4.7 5.0

Origin of GDP (% real change)

Agriculture 36.7 -17.0 19.1 4.4 3.0 3.0 3.0

Industry 22.5 6.1 22.2 13.0 4.6 2.7 3.2

Services 9.6 23 8.0 13.0 8.0 8.1 8.0

Population and income

Population (m) 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.1

GDP per head (USD at PPP) 72,332 77,782* 91,687* 101,443* 101,620 102,477 101,358

Fiscal indicators (% of GDP)

Government revenue 34.9 44.2 30.9 33.9* 34.0 33.5 33.9

Government expenditure 24.6 30.0 28.2 25.5* 25.7 27.7 29.4

Government balance 10.4 14.1 2.7 8.4* 8.3 5.8 4.5

Net public debt 7.7* 30.7* 29.5* 34.1* 32.5 32.9 32.7

Prices and financial indicators

Consumer prices (end-period; %) 13.2 -10.2 0.4 2.1 2.6 3.6 4.2

Lending interest rate (av; %) 6.8 7.3 7.3 4.6 5.0 5.3 5.5

Macroeconomic data

Source: Economic Intelligence Unit

*The Economist Intelligence Unit estimates.

Page 17: Me Real-estate Gcc Construction Ppt 13

GCC Powers of Construction 2013 • Construction sector overview • 17

GCC construction sectorQatar

Government instability/coups

Tax rates

Crime and theft

Poor public health

Foreign currency regulation

Tax regulations

Corruption

Policy instability

Insufficient capacity to innovate

Poor work ethic in national labor force

Inefficient government bureaucracy

Inadequate supply of infrastructure

Inadequately educated workforce

Restrictive labor regulations

Inflation

Access to financing

% responses0 10 155 20 25

Global competitiveness - The most problematic factors for doing business

Source: World Economic Forum Report 2012-2013

Page 18: Me Real-estate Gcc Construction Ppt 13

GCC Powers of Construction 2013 • Construction sector overview • 18

GCC construction sectorQatar

Strengths

• Construction of large-scale transport infrastructure projects is under way - a move that will ease thestrain on existing infrastructure.

• A number of international companies operate in the country, which is open to international privatesector involvement.

Opportunities

• Qatar is developing its non-oil sector, thereby supporting infrastructure development.

• Hosting the FIFA 2022 World Cup should yield considerable contracts across the construction andinfrastructure sectors.

Weaknesses

• There is just a single mode of overland transport (roads).

• Much of the transport infrastructure is nearing maximum capacity.

• Power generation infrastructure is strained.

Threats

• Demand for Qatar's luxury commercial and residential sectors is still weak as a result of the globaldownturn, which may in turn threaten existing and planned projects.

• Contract disputes between Ashghal and Bilfinger Berger may lead to the perception that there areregulatory uncertainties.

Page 19: Me Real-estate Gcc Construction Ppt 13

GCC Powers of Construction 2013 • Construction sector overview • 19

GCC construction sectorQatar

Qatar construction industry• Qatar’s construction industry value is forecast at approximately USD 7.7bn in FY13, representing a real value annual growth of 5.1%.

• MEED estimates the total value of projects planned or underway in Qatar at USD 222bn.

• Ahead of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, and in line with the country's 2030 Vision, Qatar's infrastructurespend is expected to reach US$150bn.- According to BMI, the long lead-times experienced by the majority of the awarded projects means theimpact will not be notable on construction sector growth until 2013, and will only make a considerableimpact by 2016 and beyond.

• A series of infrastructure projects are in the pipeline:- USD 20bn investment in roads.- USD 25bn to be invested in railways.- USD 15.5bn to be spent on a new airport. - USD 4bn to be invested in stadiums. - USD 8bn to be spent on a deepwater seaport.- USD 1bn transport corridor project in Doha.

• Commercial construction accounts for 23% of total construction spend:- Work has begun on the USD 1.37bn Doha Festival City project.- Lusail City when completed, will cover an area of 35 square kilometers and will house 200,000residents, 80,000 visitors and 170,000 workers.- The Hamad Medical City, currently under construction, with a 2018 completion date, is set to become the largest hospital complex in the world.

• Transport construction accounts for 58% of total construction spend:- USD 20bn Doha Metro attracted more than 60 bids from international consortia competing for the US$7bn first phase of the contract.▪ Reportedly 10 of the interested companies are Chinese, highlighting how Asian companies areincreasingly looking to international markets amid a slowdown in their own.

Construction industry value, USD bn Construction industry, % of GDP

0

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2011 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f

Estimated construction growth - Qatar

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12% Share of GCC’s project market (planned or underway) as at 28 Feb 2013

9% Estimated average growth in construction between 2017 and 2021

EUR 51,000 One of the world's highest levels of GDP per capita

USD 18bnInvestment in tourism and industry projects within the Egyptian economy over the nextfive years

40%Percentage of its budget Qatar's government has allocated between 2011 and 2016 toinfrastructure projects

USD 18.9bnInvestment in the expansion of the country's electricity and water networks over thenext 10 years

Source: Business Monitor International

Page 20: Me Real-estate Gcc Construction Ppt 13

GCC Powers of Construction 2013 • Construction sector overview • 20

GCC construction sectorQatar

Qatar project market

Source: Business Monitor International

Source: Business Monitor International

Examples of major projects Value (USD bn)

Transport

Developments in Doha Metro 20.0

New Doha International Airport 15.5

Abu Dhabi - Qatar Causeway 13.0

New Doha Port Project 9.0

New Doha Port 6.9

Qatar-Bahrain Causeway 5.0

Energy and utility

Ras Girtas C (formally Ras Laffan C) IWPP 3.8

Residential

Lusail City 14.0

Musheireb development 5.5

Golf City Project (Lusail City) 4.9

Doha Festival City project 1.8

Total value of projects planned or underway = USD 222bn (MEED)

Commercial

Airports

Residential

Power plants & Transmission Grids

RailPorts

Roads and bridges Oil and Gas pipeline

Water

13%

13%

16%

16%1%

10%

3%

23%

5%

Construction project value breakdown per sector in the Qatar

Page 21: Me Real-estate Gcc Construction Ppt 13

GCC Powers of Construction 2013 • Construction sector overview • 21

GCC construction sectorKuwait

2008 Actual 2009 Actual 2010 Actual 2011 Actual 2012 Estimate 2013 Forecast 2014 Forecast

GDP

Nominal GDP (USD m) 147,391 105,993 119,902 160,895 169,404 171,612 184,774

Real GDP growth (%) 4.2 -7.8 11.4 9.3* 5.0 4.6 5.2

Origin of GDP (% real change)

Agriculture -2.9 25.6 -15.5 10.0* 3.0 1.0 3.0

Industry 8.6 -13.9 3.0 8.9* 4.9 4.7 5.0

Services 0.3 -2.1 18.8 9.6* 5.1 4.5 4.6

Population and income

Population (m) 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 4.0 4.1

GDP per head (USD at PPP) 41,946 38,441 42,198 45,592 47,200 48,636 50,267

Fiscal indicators (% of GDP)

Government revenue 53.0 58.0 62.6 68.1 65.0 61.0 58.8

Government expenditure 46.1 36.9 47.2 38.3 37.3 40.0 38.8

Government balance 6.9 21.1 15.4 29.8 27.8 21.0 20.0

Net public debt 9.6 11.0 10.9 7.5* 7.1 6.8 6.4

Prices and financial indicators

Consumer prices (end-period; %) 9.0 2.1 6.0 3.1 2.6 3.9 3.6

Lending interest rate (av; %) 7.6 6.2 4.9 5.2 5.8 4.9 5.0

Macroeconomic data

Source: Economic Intelligence Unit

*The Economist Intelligence Unit estimates.

Page 22: Me Real-estate Gcc Construction Ppt 13

GCC Powers of Construction 2013 • Construction sector overview • 22

GCC construction sectorKuwait

Tax regulations

Tax rates

Poor public health

Foreign currency regulations

Crime and theft

Infaltion

Insufficient capacity to innovate

Government instability/coups

Poor work ethic in national labor force

Inadequately educated workforce

Inadequate supply of infrastructure

Corruption

Access to financing

Policy instability

Restrictive labor regulations

% responses0 105 2015 25

Inefficient government bureaucracy

Global competitiveness - The most problematic factors for doing business

Source: World Economic Forum Report 2012-2013

Page 23: Me Real-estate Gcc Construction Ppt 13

GCC Powers of Construction 2013 • Construction sector overview • 23

GCC construction sectorKuwait

Strengths

• With large oil reserves, Kuwait has a significant cushion to weather economic difficulties.

• The country has been generating surpluses for a number of years, meaning it has financing availablefor large projects.

• USD 12.6bn infrastructure investment will further boost development and growth.

• Tighter integration with neighboring states makes Kuwait a more enticing investment prospect.

• Kuwait has a strong country structure and Kuwaiti firms have considerable infrastructure andconstruction expertise.

Opportunities

• The tight integration of infrastructure development between Gulf states throughout the GCCprovides opportunities for Kuwaiti firms to win contracts in the region.

• The Al-Zour refinery project appears to be back on track, offering opportunities for both energyinfrastructure and wider construction projects.

• The government's continuing support for infrastructure stimulus provides opportunities fordevelopments. Improvements in power and transmission systems are particularly beneficial forsustained growth.

Weaknesses

• Corruption and political instability both threaten the investment environment. This has alreadyresulted in projects being canceled or postponed. Poor growth rates and uncertainty about majorprojects dissuade private investment, further reducing potential infrastructure projects.

• Kuwait has a weak business environment compared with other GCC countries. A lengthy anddifficult tendering process, large bias towards Kuwaiti firms, majority state control and high levels of corruption are just some areas in which it is compromised.

Threats

• Kuwait has a weak business environment compared to other GCC members, and this will potentiallymake Kuwait the slowest member to recover economically.

• Continuing political disagreement with Iraq and other neighbors may threaten regional stability.

• Continued lack of private investment may result in a period of extended stagnation as investors lookelsewhere for returns.

• The threat of domestic political unrest is growing.

Source: Business Monitor International

Page 24: Me Real-estate Gcc Construction Ppt 13

GCC Powers of Construction 2013 • Construction sector overview • 24

GCC construction sectorKuwait

Kuwait construction industry• Kuwait’s construction industry value is forecast at approximately USD 3.2bn in FY13, representing a real value annual growth of 3.6%.

• MEED estimates the total value of projects planned or underway in Kuwait at USD 188bn.

• Transport construction accounts for 76% of total construction spend:- Kuwait City's USD 7bn metro project has been subject to delays, although there are signs of progress.The project is expected to be completed by 2020.- USD 3.3bn Kuwait International Airport (KIA) terminal will open in September 2016. ▪ Initial terminal capacity will be 13mn passengers annually, with plans to increase this to 25mn and50mn through further development.

- Kuwait is to invest approximately USD 6.2bn in a series of motorway construction projects with anapproximate length of 550 kilometers. Tenders for the projects will be issued between 2012 and mid-2015.- The Subiya causeway is a 37.5km bridge that will cross Kuwait Bay, linking Kuwait City, the Subiyapeninsula and Boubyan Island.▪ This project is estimated to cost around USD 2.6bn.

• Energy and resource construction accounts for 20% of total construction spend.- Kuwait National Petroleum Company is set to construct the largest oil refinery in the Middle East. ▪ The USD 14.5bn facility will have a daily processing capacity of 615,000 barrels from 2018.- USD 1.8bn water and power project is being developed at Al-Zour North.▪ It will have an overall capacity of 1,500MW and be capable of producing up to 107 gallons ofpotable water daily.

• Social construction accounts for 4% of total construction spend.- Kuwait has at least USD 5bn of university building projects either in the planning stage or underconstruction.▪ The largest is the USD 3bn Sabah al-Salem New University at Shadadiyah, which is located 20km west of Kuwait City.

Construction industry value, USD bn Construction industry, % of GDP

0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

2011 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f

Estimated construction growth - Kuwait

Con

stru

ctio

n in

dust

ry v

alue

USD

bn

Con

stru

ctio

n in

dust

ry %

of G

DP

Note: “e”: estimate; “f”: forecast

10% Share of GCC’s project market (planned or underway) as at 28 Feb 2013

USD 23.7bn Total capital investment estimated in 2013

USD 6.6bn Estimated construction industry value by 2022

9,000MW Additional required production capacity by 2020

85% Percentage of Kuwait roads that are paved

518km Length of railway in Kuwait as part of the Gulf Railway Network

Source: Business Monitor International

Page 25: Me Real-estate Gcc Construction Ppt 13

GCC Powers of Construction 2013 • Construction sector overview • 25

GCC construction sectorKuwait

Kuwait project market

Source: Business Monitor International

Source: Business Monitor International

Examples of major projects Value (USD bn)

Transport

Boubyan Port Construction 11.4

Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) 7.0

East – West Railway network 6.6

Motorway construction packages 6.2

Expansion of Kuwait airport 6.0

Railway network from Kuwait to Oman 5.6

Energy and utilities

Upgrades and expansions for Mina Abdulla and Ahmadirefineries

4.0

Al-Zour IWPP 2.7

Power plant, Subiya 2.7

Thermal power plant and desalination plant – ShuaibaNorth

1.3

Construction and social infrastructure

Sabah al-Salem University 3.0

Total value of projects planned or underway = USD 188bn (MEED)

Power plants and transmission grids

Oil & Gas PipelineRoad and bridges

Airports Rail

Social

Ports

Water

9%

5%

35%

27%

7%

12%

1% 4%

Construction project value breakdown per sector in the Kuwait

Page 26: Me Real-estate Gcc Construction Ppt 13

GCC Powers of Construction 2013 • Construction sector overview • 26

GCC construction sectorOman

2008 Actual 2009 Actual 2010 Actual 2011 Actual 2012 Estimate 2013 Forecast 2014 Forecast

GDP

Nominal GDP (USD m) 60,744 48,240 58,813 69,972 77,559 83,400 90,080

Real GDP growth (%) 13.2 3.3 5.6 0.3 5.0 5.1 4.8

Origin of GDP (% real change)

Agriculture 7.2 4.8 10.8 2.2 1.6 1.7 2.0

Industry 12.2 10.0 5.9 1.6 5.0 5.1 5.0

Services 14.1 -1.3 5.3 7.8 6.5 6.0 5.9

Population and income

Population (m) 2.9 3.2 3.2 3.30* 3.4 3.5 3.6

GDP per head (USD at PPP) 24,677 23,273 24,641 24,536* 25,540 26,553 27,590

Fiscal indicators (% of GDP)

Government revenue 32.7 36.4 35.0 46.4 49.5 44.8 42.8

Government expenditure 32.4 40.1 35.2 39.9 40.3 42.2 40.5

Government balance 0.4 -3.7 -0.2 6.5 9.2 2.6 2.3

Net public debt 4.1 5.6 5.0 4.6 4.1 4.1 3.9

Prices and financial indicators

Consumer prices (av; %) 12.5 3.5 3.2 4.1 2.9 3.4 3.5

Lending interest rate (av; %) 7.1 7.4 6.8 6.2 5.9 5.9 5.9

Macroeconomic data

Source: Economic Intelligence Unit

*The Economist Intelligence Unit estimates.

Page 27: Me Real-estate Gcc Construction Ppt 13

GCC Powers of Construction 2013 • Construction sector overview • 27

GCC construction sectorOman

Crime and theft

Tax regulations

Government instability/coups

Inadequate supply of infrastructure

Poor public health

Tax rates

Foreign currency regulations

Inefficiant government bureaucracy

Access to financing

Poor work ethic in national labor force

Policy instability

Corruption

Insufficient capacity to innovate

Inadequately educated workforce

Restrictive labor regulations

Inflation

% responses

0 105 15 25 3020

Global competitiveness - The most problematic factors for doing business

Source: World Economic Forum Report 2012-2013

Page 28: Me Real-estate Gcc Construction Ppt 13

GCC Powers of Construction 2013 • Construction sector overview • 28

Strengths

• The government’s strategy to diversify away from oil is well under way and is helping to driveinfrastructure and tourism development.

• The government is keen to attract the private sector, including foreign companies, and has a strongmarket orientation.

Opportunities

• Growing tourism and transport infrastructure offer opportunities for developers and new business inthe country.

• Diversification of the economy will lead to a number of construction contracts and investment intoaccompanying infrastructure.

Weaknesses

• The country does not yet have a rail network, and has therefore become over-reliant on roads.

• The government has appeared indecisive when choosing which power plant projects to prioritize,indicating an inefficient bureaucracy.

• Public protests have eased; however, continued uncertainty across the border (most notably Yemen)could potentially spill over into Oman.

Threats

• Royal succession is a potential threat to Oman's political future.

• Demographic change and regional instability could pose challenges.

GCC construction sectorOman

Source: Business Monitor International

Page 29: Me Real-estate Gcc Construction Ppt 13

GCC Powers of Construction 2013 • Construction sector overview • 29

Oman construction industry• Oman construction industry value is forecast at approximately USD 4.3bn in FY13, representing a real value annual growth of 5.5%.

• MEED estimates the total value of projects planned or underway in Oman at USD 116bn.

• The government has also set specific targets for diversification of the economy:- Planning to reduce crude oil’s share of GDP down from 41% in 1996 to 9% in 2020.- The Omani government continues with its five year (2011-2015) aggressive infrastructure spendingprogramme which totals about USD 78bn.

• Transport construction accounts for 66% of total construction spend.- New road ventures have a spending allocation of around USD 4.4bn. ▪ One of the biggest road projects is the second phase construction of the 240km al-Batinah coastal road.

- Oman is carrying out plans for the construction of six new airports and the expansion of the existingairports at Muscat and Salalah.▪ The plans include a new international airport at Duqm which is due to be operational by 2014.▪ Development of Muscat International Airport is worth USD 1.8bn.▪ The Salalah Airport project requiring an investment of USD 765mn.- USD 12bn Port of Sohar investment project, which will make it one of the largest port developmentprojects in the world.

• Energy and resources construction accounts for 25% of total construction spend- USD 2bn worth of renewable projects are planned including:▪ A solar panel production facility. ▪ a 400MW solar power plant.▪ a renewable energy university.

Construction industry value, USD bn Construction industry, % of GDP

0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

2011 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f

Estimated construction growth - Oman

Con

stru

ctio

n in

dust

ry v

alue

USD

bn

Con

stru

ctio

n in

dust

ry %

of G

DP

Note: “e”: estimate; “f”: forecast

6% Share of GCC’s project market (planned or underway) as at 28 Feb 2013

USD 22.9bn Total capital investment estimated in 2013

42mn tonnes The total volume of freight likely to be handled by the rail network in 2020

20% Drop in cement prices over 2011

OMRANCompany set up by the government to deliver major projects and manage assets andinvestment in the tourism sector

42,000km Length of Oman’s road network (majority is unpaved)

12.7%Percentage year-on-year increase of passengers handled at Muscat InternationalAirport

Source: Business Monitor International

GCC construction sectorOman

Page 30: Me Real-estate Gcc Construction Ppt 13

GCC Powers of Construction 2013 • Construction sector overview • 30

Examples of major projects Value (USD bn)

Transport

Construction of the GCC railway 14.0

Oman National Railway Project 12.9

National rail network 10.0

Duqm Port 2.0

Muscat International Airport new terminal 1.8

Energy and utility

Kish gas field pipeline 12.0

Terra Nex solar PV energy development 2.0

Sur IPP 1.5

Haya Water Project 1.0

Construction and social infrastructure

Steel plant 3.0

Oman Conference and Exhibition Centre, Muscat 1.0

Total value of projects planned or underway = USD 116bn (MEED)

GCC construction sectorOman

Source: Business Monitor International

Source: Business Monitor International

Ports RailAirports

Commercial IndustrialWater

Oil & Gas Pipelines Power Plants & Transmission GridsRoads & Bridges

6%

6%

45%9%

15%

7%

3%4%

5%

Construction project value breakdown per sector in the Oman

Page 31: Me Real-estate Gcc Construction Ppt 13

GCC Powers of Construction 2013 • Construction sector overview • 31

GCC construction sectorBahrain

2008 Actual 2009 Actual 2010 Actual 2011 Actual 2012 Estimate 2013 Forecast 2014 Forecast

GDP

Nominal GDP (USD m) 22,151 19,620 25,713 28,991 27,913 29,055 30,289

Real GDP growth (%) 6.2 2.5 4.3 1.9 3.9 3.6 3.7

Origin of GDP (% real change)

Agriculture 0.2 11.1 -7.9 1.6 1.5 2.5 3.0

Industry 4.7 0.1 2.3 1.5 1.8 2.5 2.4

Services 7.8 5.0 6.3 2.2 5.0 6.4 6.5

Population and income

Population (m) 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3* 1.3 1.4 1.5

GDP per head (USD at PPP) 24,580 23,809 24,028 24,221* 24,333 24,361 25,154

Fiscal indicators (% of GDP)

Government revenue 32.1 23.2 22.5 25.9 30.0 27.1 26.4

Government expenditure 25.6 29.2 27.3 26.2 31.1 32.5 32.5

Government balance 6.6 -6.0 -4.8 -0.3 -1.1 -5.4 -6.2

Net public debt 28.3 41.7 45.9 48.1 54.5 58.9 63.0

Prices and financial indicators

Consumer prices (end-period; %) 5.1 1.6 1.0 0.2 2.6 2.6 2.8

Lending interest rate (av; %) 5.1 7.9 7.2 6.8 6.3 6.8 6.8

Macroeconomic data

Source: Economic Intelligence Unit

*The Economist Intelligence Unit estimates.

Page 32: Me Real-estate Gcc Construction Ppt 13

GCC Powers of Construction 2013 • Construction sector overview • 32

GCC construction sectorBahrain

Poor public health

Tax regulations

Tax rates

Corruption

Foreign currency regulations

Crime and theft

Government instability/coups

Insufficient capacity to innovate

Inadequately educated workforce

Access to financing

Inadequate supply of infrastructure

Infaltion

Restrictive labor regulations

Inefficient government bureaucracy

Policy instability

Poor work ethic in national labor force

% responses

0 105 15

Global competitiveness - The most problematic factors for doing business

Source: World Economic Forum Report 2012-2013

Page 33: Me Real-estate Gcc Construction Ppt 13

GCC Powers of Construction 2013 • Construction sector overview • 33

GCC construction sectorBahrain

Strengths

• Strong government initiative by way of investment in construction projects.

Opportunities

• Burgeoning population in the region, including a skilled expatriate workforce.

• Labor market reforms and abolition of quotas spell fresh potential for local enterprise.

Weaknesses

• A complicated and sluggish project approval process discourages leading companies from investingin infrastructure projects in Bahrain.

• Rising costs of credit and lower confidence in the banking sector have weakened project financingconditions

• Persistent political uncertainty and lack of policy continuity is deterring new projects.

Threats

• Increasing competition from UAE and Qatari markets. Possible double-dip recession.

Source: Business Monitor International

Page 34: Me Real-estate Gcc Construction Ppt 13

GCC Powers of Construction 2013 • Construction sector overview • 34

GCC construction sectorBahrain

Bahrain construction industry• Bahrain construction industry value is forecast at approximately USD 1bn in FY13, representing a real value annual growth of 4.0%.

• MEED estimates the total value of projects planned or underway in Bahrain at USD 62bn.

• BMI forecasts moderate real GDP growth of 2.7% in 2013 due to:- Expected fiscal expenditure spending to deteriorate.- Bahrain’s construction industry is more exposed than other sectors to the prevailing political uncertaintyas foreign investors and tourists remain cautious, thus suppressing demand for multi-year projects.

• According to MEED only USD 295m of contracts had been awarded during the 2012 calendar year by November.- This is down 83 per cent from the USD 1.7bn awarded in 2011. - 2011 was Bahrain’s best year for new awards since 2003.

• Transport construction accounts for 32% of total construction spend.- USD 4.8bn has been committed to the Bahrain International Airport expansion project to triple airportcapacity to 27m passengers per annum.- USD 4.2bn for the 40km Bahrain-Qatar Friendship Bridge.

• Commercial and residential construction accounts for 47% of total construction spend.- USD 2.5bn waterfront and commercial development called Bahrain Bay.- The Bahrain government announced in July 2011 that 30,000 new housing units will be built in theKingdom over the next five years, at a cost of USD 3.18bn.- The largest contract awarded in 2012 was the USD 70m to the local Abdulaal Construction Services forthe construction of phase two of the Majaal industrial development, which consists of the constructionof warehouses and office space.

Construction industry value, USD bn Construction industry, % of GDP

0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

2011 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f

Estimated construction growth - Bahrain

Con

stru

ctio

n in

dust

ry v

alue

USD

bn

Con

stru

ctio

n in

dust

ry %

of G

DP

Note: “e”: estimate; “f”: forecast

3% Share of GCC’s project market (planned or underway) as at 28 Feb 2013

USD 37.7bn Total capital investment estimated in 2013

11% Percentage of Bahrain’s GDP which is contributed by the oil sector

34% Percentage hotel occupancy rates in Manama in June 2012

580 Average flights Bahrain International Airport handles a week

79% Percentage of Bahrain’s roads which are paved

1,028,300 Estimated total construction workforce in Bahrain in 2013

Source: Business Monitor International

Page 35: Me Real-estate Gcc Construction Ppt 13

GCC Powers of Construction 2013 • Construction sector overview • 35

GCC construction sectorBahrain

Examples of major projects Value (USD bn)

Transport

Expansion of Bahrain International Airport 4.8

Bahrain – Qatar Friendship Bridge 4.2

Energy and utilities

Al Dur 1 IWPP 1.6

3rd phase of Al Hidd Power Complex 1.3

Construction and social infrastructure

30,000 new housing units 3.2

Durrat Al Bahrain 3.0

Infrastructure development at Amwaj Islands 1.5

Social housing programme 1.3

Lulu Island mixed development 1.3

Hidd steel mill civil engineering works 1.2

Total value of projects planned or underway = USD 62bn (MEED)

Source: Business Monitor International

Source: Business Monitor International

Commercial

Airports Power plants and transmission gridsRail

Industrial

Residential

Water

16%

16%

5%

8%28%

8%

19%

Construction project value breakdown per sector in the Bahrain

Page 36: Me Real-estate Gcc Construction Ppt 13

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