may 24 the dunfey hotel san mateo,...

1989

The Eighth Annual SEMICON/West Seminar: Status 1989

May 24 The Dunfey Hotel San Mateo, California

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sponsored by Dataquest's Semiconductor Equipment and Materials Service

DataQuest a company of The Dun& Bradsticct OxporatKHi 9/1

The Eighth Annual SEMICON/West Seminar: Status 1989

i h e world semiconductor and semiconductor equipment industries have recently enjoyed healthy growth, but there are signs that both of these industries are slowing down. This year's seminar will present a snapshot of these industries as they are today along with Dataquest's forecasts for the next several years.

To accomplish this, Dataquest analysts will focus on the following topics:

• General industry outlook • Electronic equipment demand • Semiconductor demand • ASICs as technology drivers • A comparison of U.S. and Japanese fabs • Worldwide capital spending • Semiconductor equipment and materials trends • Japanese semiconductor equipment market

This morning seminar will offer an opportunity for executives, strategic planners, R&D managers, and financial analysts to better understand the dynamically changing business environment of the semiconductor equipment and materials industries.

Agenda Registration and Continental Breakfast—7-8 a.m.

Wekome and Introduction Joseph Grenier Director Semiconductor Equipment and Materials Service

Semiconductor Demand: Forces, Forecast, and Fears Mel Thomsen Director Strategic Analysis

Technology Drivers: Present and Future Krishna Shankar Industry Analyst Semiconductor Equipment and Materials Service

A Comparison of U.S. and Japanese Fabs Mark Reagan Research An^yst Semiconductor Equipment and Materials Service

Break

Reply Card

• Capital Spending and Capacity Utilization: Overcapacity? George Burns Industry Analyst Semiconductor Equipment and Materials Service

• Wafer Fab Equipment Industry—Status 1989 Joseph Grenier Director Semiconductor Equipment and Materials Service

• Silicon Markets and Technology Dr. Peggy Marie Wood Industry Analyst Semiconductor Equipment and Materials Service

* Japanese Equipment Markets Kaz Hayashi Industry Analyst Semiconductor Equipment and Materials Service/Japan

Adjourn

oeminar Information Location Dunfey San Mateo Hotel, 1770 South Amphlett Blvd. San Mateo, California 94402, telephone (415) 573-7661

Soninar Fees Fees for the Semiconductor Equipment and Materials Service SEMICON/West Seminar are:

• Subscriber (or designee) from SEMS client compai^ . . : . . . , No Charge

• Each additional attendee from any Dataquest client compaiiy $95.00

• Each attendee from a nonclient company $145.00

Registration • The registration deadline is Friday, May 19, 1989.

Please register as soon as possible by completing in full and returning the registration form. Confirmation of your registration will be mailed to you. For attendees outside the United States, please include a fax or telex number for your confirmation.

Cancellation Policy • Cancellation deadline is May 19, 1989.

Ri^istrants who either cancel after May 19, 1989, or who do not attend will be assessed a $25 service charge imless they send a replacement. Notice of cancellation must be made to the Dataquest Conference Department, (408) 437-8245. "Vbu will be given a cancellation number when you call.

D Please register me for the 1989 Semiconductor Equipment and Materials SEMICON/Wes t Seminar.

(Please securely attach a business card to ensure the correa spelling of your name and company.)

Last Name

Title

ritv

Telephone { )

D SEMS clienl

D Client from any other

Firjf

.Stafft

TMPI

BUideThoider's name

Hataqiip-'a Inrtin^tTy <;pTvirp .

Zip

M l

D Client—FSP

D Client—Prudential-Bache

G Nonclient conqiai^ attendee

D I cannot attend, but please send me information on Dataquest's Semiconductor Equipment and Materials Service

• Form of payment for conference or proceedings fees only: D Check enclosed D Money order enclosed

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I>ataQyest n n a company of MmmM The Dun &Bradstreet Corporation

1290 Ridder Park Drive San Jose, California 95131-2398

DataQuest a company d ttK; Dun tk Ki^flTvcI Corporalion

1290 Ridder Park Drive San Jose, California 93131-2398

Annual SEMICON/West Seminar: Status 1989

Ir ^

NO POSTAGE NECESSARY IF MAILED

IN THE UNITED STATES

Business Reply Mail FIRST CLASS PERMIT NO. 7279 SAN JOSE. CA

POSTAGE WILL BE PAID BY ADDRESSEE

Dataquest Incorporated Attn: Conference Departmrat (M.S. 1174) 1290 Ridder Park Drive San Jose, CA 95131-9980

Semiconductor Equipment and Materials Service

The Eighth Annual SEMICON/West Seminar:

Status 1989

Dataquest Incorporated

May 24, 1989

Dunfey San Mateo Hotel

DataQuest n n a company of UMlThe Dun& Bradstieet CorporatK SEMICON/West Seminar

May 24, 1989 San Mateo, California

List of Attendees

AG Associates Donald M. Yoshikava, Product Manage

ASM Epitaxy L. David Sikes, Vice President and General Manager

ASM International N.V. Herbert Lakens, Director Marketing Arthur H. del Prado, President and Chief Executive Officer

ASM Lithography, Inc. Doug Marsh, Vice President, Worldwide Sales

ASQ Technology, Inc. Steve Lee, President

ATEQ Corporation Georg Schacht, Marketing Manager

AVI Management Partners Eugene Flath, General Partner

Acer International Corporation Stephen Su, Vice President

Advanced Chemical Systems International Inc.

Richard Brewer, President & CEO

Advanced Mechanization, Inc. Richard Bayani, Marketing Manager Jerry Sesta, Engineering Manager

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. C. Richard Deininger, Director, Manufacturing Technology Gary Heerssen, Vice President & Group Executive, Wafer Fabrication Ops Oolep Indreko, Director, Strategic Technology Planning

1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 (408) 437-8000 Telex 171973 Fax (408) 437-0292

Air Products & Chemicals, Inc. Mark Fitzgerald Dennis Peavler, Manager, Strategic Development Robert Shay, Manager, Electronics R&D Andre M. Williams, Marketing Manager

AIRCO Electronic Gases Jeffrey D. Eagles, Manager, Electronic Business Team

Align-Rite International Pic. John P. Traub, Vice President

American Semiconductor Equipment Tech.

Greg Reyes, President and Chief Executive Officer

Anelva Corporation Fukuta Muneshige, Senior Program Manager, Plamning Office

Apple Computer, Inc. Tom Caldervood, Manager of Metrics & Standards

Terry Kaspar, Procurement Manager: Memory Mary Segesta, Procurement Specialist: ROM Marty Walt

Applied Materials Japan, Inc. Seisaku Takata, Assistant Manager Marketing

Applied Materials, Inc. Carol Bacchetti, Product Marketing Engineer Peter Hanley, Vice President & General Manager, Etch Products Division Dennis Hunter, Director, Corporate Development Grant Imper, Marketing Manager

Applied Micro Circuits Corporation Donald E. Schrock, Vice President, Operations

Arthur Young & Company Alton D. Page,

Dataquest Incorporated, a company of Tfie Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292

Ashland Chemical Company J. A. Duquin, VP & Gen Mgr, Electronic & Lab Products

Asyst Technologies, Inc. Richard A. Darlow, Director, Marketing

Autoclave Engineers Inc. Robert Brown, Chief Operating Officer Thomas Guelcher, Vice President Corporate Development, CFO

BTU Engineering Corporation Peter H. Goebel, Vice President

Bandgap Technology Corporation Dominique Cone, Market Analyst

Bank of America Judy Sanchez, Vice President

Bank of the Vest Marsha M. Poenisch, Vice President

Bechtel National, Inc. William D. Blackwell, Technical Director Chris R. Kniel, Manager, Project Operations

Branson International Plasma Corporation

Lou Perrone, Vice President, Marketing & Technology

CTI-Cryogenics Michael Grandinetti, Director of Sales

Cirrus Logic, Inc. Michael Canning, Vice President, Manufacturing

Citicorp North America, Inc. Kevin Nater, Account Officer

Cybeq Systems Kanegi Nagai, General Manager

Daifuku U.S.A. Inc. Sam Nakajima, Manager, Sales

Dexter Corporation Larry Baxter, Marketing Manager, Powder Products

Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292

Dynachem Kerry Grimes, Director of Marketing Sales

E.I. DuPont de Nemours & Company Neil Washburn, Development Specialist, Speciality Polym

ESI Sandra L. Bayless, Product Specialist

Eaton Corporation Gaylord Noblitt, Director, Marketing

Electronic Manufacturing News John Krukovski

Equitable Lomas Leasing Kim Atkins, AVP Vendor Program Steven Grundon, Vice President, Marketing Service Colleen Lusian, Assistant Vice President, Equipment Evaluation Ellie Sanchez, Market Research Manager

FSI International Don Burkman, Vice President, Marketing & Development Walt Kalin, Director of Marketing Cindy Metzger, Marketing Communications Assistant Mary Jo Peters, Public Relations Coordinator

GCA Corporation Robert Selzer, Technical Director, Advanced Applications Research, Development & Engineering

GSIC Special Investments Jimmy Hsu, Assistant Director

General Signal Corporation James Greed, Director, Technology Hiroshi Ishiwata, Sales & Marketing Manager

Genus, Inc. Ron Dornseif, Director, Strategic Programs

William W.R. Elder, President and Chief Executive Officer Robert McGeary, Director, SEMATECH & IBM Programs

Ameeta Soni, Product Marketing Manager

Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (40g) 437-0292

Gould AMI Semiconductors Joe O'Neill, Vice President, Sales

Hampshire Instruments, Inc. Tom Kulczycki, Director, Sales & Marketing Moshe Lubin, President & CEO

Hewle 11-Packard Company Dick Eichenseer, Commodity Manager James K. Lee, Commodity Manager

High Yield Technology Michele Klein, Vice President, Marketing

Honejrwell Microswitch Gary Tighe, Product Pleuiner

Hualon Microelectronics Corporation Chen Yong Lin, Process Manager

Hyundai Electronics America H. K. Kim, Manager, Marketing Planning

IVS, Inc. Hans F. Hoyer, President & CEO

Insystems, Inc. Chris Billat, President Susan Billat, Vice President, Technology Development Anthony J. Carrozzo, National Sales Manager

Intel Corporation Saraih Robinson, Senior Researcher Jacques J. Vuye, Manager, Strategic Research Group

Italtel Franco Mammucari, Procurement Manager

J. C. Schumacher Company Loren F. Sutherland, Director, Sales/Marketing

JEOL Ltd. Tetsuyuki Itch Kazuhiko Moriya, Section Manager Semiconductor Equipment Division

Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292

KLA Instruments Corporation Robert Boehlke, Executive Vice President George Duebner, Product Marketing Engineer C. Keith Van Sickle, Product Marketing Manager

Keithley Instruments, Inc. Gary A. Pinkerton, Product/Market Manager John Snyder, Product/Market Manager

Kobe Development Corporation Kazuo Ogata, General Manager Takeo Tanaka, Secretary General

Komatsu Silicon USA Inc. Steven Kawamoto, Vice President

Kyocera America, Inc. Chuck E. DeMars, Vice President, Microelectronics Division David Grooms, Product Manager, Microelectronics Group

L'Air Liquide Jean-Pierre Brevignon, Corporate Liaison Officer Jean-Francois Piffard, Electronics Corporate Marketing Manager

LFE Corporation Ronald Nickerson, General Manager

LTX Europe Ltd Paul Scrivens, Director

Lam Research Corporation Steve P. DeOrnellas, Vice President, Marketing Joe Monkovski, President, CVD Division John Osborne, Senior Vice President, Strategic Development Bruce Rhine, Vice President, Marketing CVD Division

Liquid Air Corporation Susan Schmertmann, Product Manager, Alphagaz Division


Lucky Advanced Materials, Inc. J. S. Choo, Senior Managing Director S. K. Hahn, President

Marubeni Hytech Co., Ltd. Yasuhiko Morita, General Manager, Semiconductor Equip Division

Marubeni International Electronics Koichi Ando, Vice President

Micrion Corporation William M. McMakin, President

Microelectronics Technology Company Akira Miura, President & General Manager

Millipore Corporation Chris Lavin, Product Manager James Ogg, Microelectronics Marketing Manetger Gerald Y. Walle, Vice President & General Manager

Motorola Semiconductor, Inc. Don Tolliver, Contamination Manager

N. B. K. Corporation Dr. Kaz Augusa, Director, Quality Assurance Tetsho Miyhzhki, Philip Yin, Vice President, Sales & Marketing

NCR Corporation Andy McKelvey, Division Director of Manufacturing

NEC Corporation Ken Kunitomo, Director, Corporate Planning Group

Nikon Corporation Shigemasa Hisatsugu, Managerial Staff, Ind. Supplies & Equipment Division

Takao Naito

Nikon Inc. Connie Hewitt, Regional Manager Jack Isaacson, Field Sales Manager, Hi-Tech Instruments


Nikon Precision, Inc. Richard Fallon, Marketing Product Line Manager

Oak Technical Inc. Murray Collette. President

Olin Hunt Specialty Products, Inc. Joe Daltner, Director, Marketing

Orasis Corporation Robert Welch, President, CEO

Osaka Sanso Kogyo, Ltd. Michael Solomon, General Manager

Oxford Partners Eric Schiffer, Associate

Pall Ultrafine Filtration Corp Reed Sarver, Electronics Sales Manager

Perkin-Elmer Corporation Keen Kossoudji, Western Regional Marketing Manager Charles Symborski, Director, Marketing Randall M. Young, Manager, Marketing

PlanTek Larry Campbell, Senior Vice President

Plaser Corporation Behrooz Ataee, President & CEO

Price Waterhouse Technology Annette Adler, Senior Manager Louise Claeys, Information Specialist Ellen Stover, Business Analyst

Processing Technology (1988) Limited Rick B. Desbrisay, President

Prometrix Corporation Paul Covec, Director, Marketing

Prudential-Bache Capital Funding Mark Bode, Associate Account Officer

Prudential-Bache Securities Lou Gerkin, Managing Director Chad Keck, Managing Director

Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292

Quantum Corporation Marc E. Beckman, Purchasing Manager Lonnie Blackwell, Supplier Engineer Romano Ed, Buyer, Planner

Rosenberg Capital Management Huachen Chen, Analyst Walter Price, Analyst

Ross-Dove Company, Inc. Bruce V. Leister, National Account Executive

SAMES Paul Kruger, Manager, Engineering

SEH America, Inc. Parker Brinson, Director, Sales and Marketing Isao Ivashita, President

Schlumberger Technologies Steve Harari, Vice President, Marketing North America

SEMI Tonya Maudlin, Data Collection Administrator

Semiconductor Systems Mark Siegel, President

SiSCAN Systems Gerry Leever, Marketing Manager

Singapore Economic Development Board Lit-Cheong Chong, San Francisco Center Director

Software Express Craig Pilgrim, President & CEO

Solid State Technology Magazine Sid Marshall, Editor

Standard Microsystems Corporation Frank Wanlass, Chief Scientist

Sumitomo Eaton Nova Corporation Wagner Dean, Director

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp.

Klaus C. Wiemer, President


legal Corporation Craig Keith, Comptroller Corey J. Mullins, Marketing Manager

Tel America, Inc. Kazuhiko Nakamura, Executive Vice President

Temescal R. J. Hill, Director, Technology

Tescon America Inc. Raymond Phillips, Vice President, Operations

Tokyo Electron, Ltd. Akira Inoue, Senior Managing Director

U.S. Semiconductor Corporation William Closser, President, CEO

ULVAC Ted Pappas, National Sales Manager

Union Carbide Corporation Randy O'Brien, Business Manager

Union Carbide Industrial Gases Inc. William R. Couch, Senior Applications Engineer Bill Schmeh, Region Sales Manager Thomas L. Singman, Marketing Manager

United Microelectronics Corporation Eric Chen, Product Planning Manager James Wu, Test Engineer

Varian Extrion Michael Pippins, Product Manager

Varian Associates Steve Jensen, General Manager, Thin Film Technology Thomas D. Sege, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer R. Bruce Thayer, Marketing Manager

Veriflo Corporation Burt Lancaster, Vice President, Marketing


Westech Systems, Inc. Tom Tucker, President

Xynetics Gordon C. Westwood, Vice President


DataQuest a company of The Dun & Bradstieet Corporation

•

DataQuest n n a company of MMMM TheDun&BradstreetCorporatK

Annette Adler

Koichi Ando

Behrooz Ataee

Kim Atkins

Kaz, Dr. Augusa

Carol Bacchetti

Larry Baxter

Richard Bayani

Sandra L. Bayless

Marc E. Beckman

Chris Billat

Susan Billat

Lonnie Blackvell

William D. Blackwell

Mark Bode

Robert Boehlke

Jean-Pierre Brevignon

Richard Brewer

Parker Brinson

Robert Brown

Don Burkman

Tom Calderwood

Larry Campbell

SEMICON/West Seminar May 24, 1989

San Mateo, California

List o£ Attendees

Price Waterhouse Technology

Marubeni International Electronics

Plaser Corporation

Equitable Lomas Leasing

N. B. K. Corporation

Applied Materials, Inc.

Dexter Corporation

Advanced Mechanization, Inc.

ESI

Quantum Corporation

Insystems, Inc.

Insystems, Inc.

Quantum Corporation

Bechtel National, Inc.

Prudential-Bache Capital Funding

KLA Instruments Corporation

L'Air Liquide

Advanced Chemical Systems Int'l Inc.

SEH America, Inc.

Autoclave Engineers Inc.

FSI International

Apple Computer, Inc.

PlanTek

1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 (408) 437-8000 Telex 171973 Fax (408) 437-0292

Michael Canning

Anthony J. Carrozzo

Eric Chen

Huachen Chen

Lit-Cheong Chong

J. S. Choo

Louise Claeys

William Closser

Murray Collette

Dominique Cone

William R. Couch

Paul Covec

Joe Daltner

Richard A. Darlow

Chuck E. DeMars

Steve P. DeOrnellas

Wagner Dean

C. Richard Deininger

Rick B. Desbrisay

Ron Dornseif

George Duebner

J. A. Duquin

Jeffrey D. Eagles

Romano Ed

Cirrus Logic, Inc.

Insystems, Inc.

United Microelectronics Corporation

Rosenberg Capital Management

Singapore Economic Development Board

Lucky Advanced Materials, Inc.


U.S. Semiconductor Corporation

Oak Technical Inc.

Bandgap Technology Corporation

Union Carbide Industrial Gases Inc.

Prometrix Corporation

Olin Hunt Specialty Products, Inc.

Asyst Technologies, Inc.

Kyocera America, Inc.

Lam Research Corporation

Sumitomo Eaton Nova Corporation

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.

Processing Technology (1988) Limited

Genus, Inc.


Ashland Chemical Company

Airco Electronic Gases

Quantum Corporation

Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradsfreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Teiex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292

Dick Eichenseer

William W.R. Elder

Richard Fallon

Mark FitzGerald

Eugene Flath

Steven Francis

Lou Gerkin

Peter H. Goebel

Michael Grandinetti

James Greed

Kerry Grimes

David Grooms

Steven Grundon

Thomas Guelcher

S. K. Hahn

Peter Hanley

Steve Harari

Gary Heerssen

Connie Hewitt

R. J. Hill

Shigemasa Hisatsugu

Hans F. Hoyer

Jimmy Hsu

Dennis Hunter

Hewle 11-Packard Company

Genus, Inc.

Nikon Precision, Inc.

Air Products & Chemicals, Inc.

AVI Management Partners

Brent Chemicals International PLC

Prudential-Bache Securities

BTU Engineering Corporation

CTI-Cryogenics

General Signal Corporation

Dynachem

Kyocera America, Inc.

Equitable Lomas Leasing

Autoclave Engineers Inc.

Lucky Advanced Materials, Inc.


Schlumberger Technologies


Nikon Inc.

Temescal

Nikon Corporation

IVS, Inc.

GSIC Special Investments



Grant Imper

Oolep Indreko

Akira Inoue

Jack Isaacson

Hiroshi Ishivata

Tetsuyuki Itoh

Isao Ivashita

Steve Jensen

Walt Kalin

Terry Kaspar

Steven Kawamoto

Chad Keck

Craig Keith

H. K. Kim

Michele Klein

Chris R. Kniel

Keen Kossoudji

Paul Kruger

John Krukowski

Tom Kulczycki

Ken Kunitomo

Herbert Lakens

Burt Lancaster

Chris Lavin

James K. Lee



Tokyo Electron, Ltd.

Nikon Inc.

General Signal Corporation

JEOL Ltd.

SEH America, Inc.

Varian Associates

FSI International


Komatsu Silicon USA Inc.

Prudential-Bache Securities

Tegal Corporation

Hyundai Electronics America

High Yield Technology

Bechtel National, Inc.

Perkin-Elmer Corporation

SAMES

Electronic Manufacturing News

Hampshire Instruments, Inc.

NEC Corporation

ASM International N.V.

Veriflo Corporation

Millipore Corporation

Hewlett-Packard Company


Steve Lee

Gerry Leever

Bruce W. Leister

Chen Yong Lin

Moshe Lubin

Colleen Lusian

Franco Mammucari

Doug Marsh

Sid Marshall

Tonya Maudlin

Robert McGeary

Andy McKelvey

William M. McMakin

David W. McMullen

Cindy Metzger

Akira Miura

Tetsho Miyhzhki

Joe Monkovski

Yasuhiko Morita

Kazuhiko Moriya

Corey J. Mullins

Fukuta Muneshige

Kanegi Nagai

Takao Naito

Sam Nakaj ima

ASQ Technology, Inc.

SiSCAN Systems

Ross-Dove Company, Inc.

Hualon Microelectronics Corporation

Hampshire Instruments, Inc.

Equitable Lomas Leasing Co.

Italtel

ASM Lithography, Inc.

Solid State Technology Magazine

Semiconductor Microelectronics Int'l

Genus, Inc.

NCR Corporation

Micrion Corporation

AMP Incorporated

FSI International

Microelectronics Technology Company



Marubeni Hytech Co., Ltd.

JEOL Ltd.

Tegal Corporation

Anelva Corporation

Cybeq Systems

Nikon Corporation

Daifuku U.S.A. Inc.


Kazuhiko Nakamura

Kevin Nater

Ronald Nickerson

Gaylord Noblitt

Randy O'Brien

Joe O'Neill

Kazuo Ogata

James Ogg

John Osborne

Alton D. Page

Ted Pappas

Dennis Peavler

Lou Perrone

Mary Jo Peters

Raymond Phillips

Jean-Francois Piffard

Craig Pilgrim

Gary A. Pinkerton

Michael Pippins

Marsha M. Poenisch

Walter Price

Greg Reyes

Bruce Rhine

Sarah Robinson

Ellie Sanchez

Tel America, Inc.

Citicorp North America, Inc.

LFE Corporation

Eaton Corporation

Union Carbide Corporation

Gould AMI Semiconductors

Kobe Development Corporation

Mlllipore Corporation


Arthur Young & Company

ULVAC


Branson International Plasma Corporation

FSI International

Tescon America Inc.

L'Air Liquide

Software Express

Keithley Instruments, Inc.

Varian Extrion

Bank o£ the Vest

Rosenberg Capital Management

American Semiconductor Equipment Tech.


Intel Corporation

Equitable Lomas Leasing Co.


Judy Sanchez

Reed Sarver

Georg Schacht

Eric Schiffer

Bill Schraeh

Susan Schmertmann

Donald E. Schrock

Paul Scrivens

Thomas D. Sege

Mary Segesta

Robert Selzer

Jerry Sesta

Robert Shay

Mark Siegel

L. David Sikes

Thomas L. Singman

John Snyder

Michael Solomon

Ameeta Soni

Ellen Stover

Stephen Su

Loren F. Sutherland

Charles Symborski

Seisaku Takata

Takeo Tanaka

Bank of America

Pall Ultrafine Filtration Corp

ATEQ Corporation

Oxford Partners


Liquid Air Corporation

Applied Micro Circuits Corporation

LTX Europe Ltd

Varian Associates


GCA Corporation

Advanced Mechanization, Inc.


Semiconductor Systems

ASM Epitaxy


Keithley Instruments, Inc.

Osaka Sanso Kogyo, Ltd.

Genus, Inc.


Acer International Corporation

J. C. Schumacher Company


Applied Materials Japan, Inc.

Kobe Development Corporation


R. Bruce Thayer

Gary Tighe

Don Tolliver

John P. Traub

Tom Tucker

C. Keith Van Sickle

Jacques J. Vuye

Gerald Y. Walle

Marty Walt

Frank Vanlass

Neil Washburn

Robert Welch

Gordon C. Westwood

Klaus C. Wiemer

Andre M. Williams

James Wu

Philip Yin

Donald M. Yoshikava

Randall M. Young

Arthur H. del Prado

Varian Associates

Honeywell Microswitch

Motorola Semiconductor, Inc.

Allgn-Rite International Pic.

Westech Systems, Inc.


Intel Corporation

Millipore Corporation


Standard Microsystems Corporation

E.I. DuPont de Nemours & Company

Orasis Corporation

Xynetics

Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg. Corp.


United Microelectronics Corporation


AG Associates


ASM International N.V.

Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Parl< Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292

DataQuest n n a company of MMMM The Dun &BradstFeet Corporation

THE EIGHTH ANNUAL SENI(XM/mSI SEMINAR: STAIUS 1989

May 24, 1989 Dunf ey San Mateo Hotel San Mateo, California

7:00 a.m. to 8:00 a.m. Registration and Continental Breakfast

8:00 a.m. Seminar Begins

Welcome and Introduction Jc^&pb. Grenier Director Semiconductor Equipment and Materials Service Datac^est Incorporated

Sendconductor Demand: Forces, Forecast, and Fears Ifel Ihcansen Director Strategic Analysis Dataquest Iixorporated

ERAMs and ASICs as Technology Drivers Krishna Shankar Industry Analyst Semiconductor Ecjiipment and Materials Service Dataquest Incorporated

A Conparison of Japanese and U.S. Fabs Mark T. Reagan Industry Analyst Semiconductor Equipment and Materials Service Dataquest Incorporated

Break

(Continued)


Capital Spending: Stability Achieved George Bums Industry Analyst Semiconductor Equipnnent and Materials Service Dataquest Incorporated

Wafer Fab Equipnnent Industry Status 1989 Jose0i Grenier Director Semiconductor Eqiupment and Materials Service Dataquest Incorporated

Silicon Wafers: Existing Markets and Future Ofportunities Dr. Peggy Marie Wood Industry Analyst Semiconductor Equipmait and Materials Service Dataqpest Incorporated

Japanese Equipment Markets Kaz Hayashi Industry Analyst Semiconductor Equipment and Materials Service Dataquest Japan Limited

12:00 Noon Adjourn

DataQuest T B V B ^ELomp^nvol X U l ThcD0nSi'Bi3d&iitTrcrirpDTaL»on

DataQuest n n a company of MMMM The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation

1989 SEMIOON/WEST SIHCNAR QUESTIONNAIRE

In order to continually inprove the Semiconductor Equipment and Materials SEMICCaVWest Seminar, we need to better understand your information needs. Please help us by ccsorpleting the following questionnaire. We would appreciate it if you would list your ccatpariy name

1. Is your coirpany a Dataquest client? Yes No

2. Which of the following best describes your conpany's primary activities?

Semiconductor manufacturer

Seiniconductor equipment supplier

Semiconductor materials si- plier

Other (Please specify)

3. Which of the following best describes your position/title?

CEO, President, Vice President

Strategic Planning/Business Develc^ment

Sales and Marketing Marageanent

Product Development/R&D/Engineering Management


4. How did you learn about this seminar?

The brochure was mailed directly to me

Someone in my ccaipany gave me the brochure

Scsneone from Dataquest called me



5. Please list your main reasons for attending this seminar:

Highest Lowest

6. How well did the seminar meet your dDJectives? 1 2 3 4 5

7. In the future, should the length of this seminar be: Shorter Longer The same?

8. What speeches were the most iirportant to you?

9. What speeches were the least iitportant to you?

10. Topics you would like to hear about at next year's seminar:

11. Please use this spac:e for your comments on any aspect of our seminar:

Name (Optional)

3 r^ O at •<

IftMOMOl.WO »l(»»)5iAl

Dataquest's Annual SEMICON/West Seminar May 24, 1989

SEMICON/WEST SEMINAR 1989 JOSEPH GRENIER

Director Semiconductor Equipment and Materials Service


© 1989 Dataquest Incorporated May 24 — Reproduction Prohibited


liMowxemo O K I M O S ^

ELECTRONICS INDUSTRY FOOD CHAIN 1988 MARKETS

20 Dataquest Services

10 Dataquest Services

SEMS

Source: Dataquest

IBMOHxnwo mtaaaSBEl

SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT AND MATERIALS SERVICE

SEMS

Semiconductor Equipment and

Materials

1 Semiconductor Manufacturing



|B&3060(M IMG Oa iVeP iGREl

SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT, MATERIALS,

AND MANUFACTURING SERVICE

Semiconductor Equipment and

Materials

— Joseph Grenier — Peggy Wood — Kaz Hayashi

SEMMS

Semiconductor Manufacturing

— Krishna Shankar — Mark Reagan — George Burns

J530500S.1MG OSf1&ift3.<5RlEl

AGENDA

1. Semiconductor Demand: Forces, Forecast, and Fears

2. Technology Drivers: Present and Future 3. A Comparison of U.S. and Japanese Fabs

Coffee Break

4. Capital Spending and Capacity Utilization: Overcapacity?

5. Wafer Fab Equipment Industry - Status 1989 6. Silicon Markets and Technology 7. Japanese Equipment Markets

Adjourn

1989 Dataquest Incorporated May 24 — Reproduction Prohibited


Dataquest a company of The Dun & Bradslrcet Corporation

n n a company of

IteiiwBi.iia iBioa/^tWol

Dataquest*s Annual SEMICON/West Seminar May 24. 1989

SEMICONDUCTOR DEMAND: FORCES, FORECAST, AND FEARS

MEL THOMSEN Director, Strategic Analysis



Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292

IMiitoniia Maito7Uti\


Forces

Economic

International trade

Semiconductor industry trends

Company performance

Inventory levels

<.*ia l.imi«l^•T^^T

ESTIMATED UNITED STATES GNP GROWTH RATE

Percent Change (SAAR)

7 | O

A .;:::: Ill::

IHii iiiii Q .ll:: l_ll:: l

2 III-II "" I I - 1 #» l:::l : l:::

• 1

***** ^H^^^^H^L

• - l : : l l ::

iiiii iiiii ^^^^ li

- !«I I - I l l i l - I l l i i - I i i l i - i i i i i - i l lH- l i

i \ / 7 m m II gk' lllli lliil

I I ' ! • * * . #4*** ^ ^ T ^ ^ 4***4 • » • • • ! • - • • • • . ^•m « • • » . ****+ • • ' •>«• J ***** •» .*•< i m ^ '

I * ! | I M 1

Q1 Q2 03 04 Q1 02 Q3 04 Q1 02 03 04 01 02 03 04 1987 + 1988 ^-' 1989 ^h 1990 »

Souce: Dun & Biadstieet


Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose. CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292

I g t i b o M irB <t AH^ :T^ dl

ESTIMATED CHANGE IN EQUIPMENT FIXED INVESTMENT

Percent Change (SAAR)

30

01 02 03 04 01 02 03 04 01 02 03 04 01 02 03 04 f- 1987 + 1988 ^- 1989 + 1990 ^

Souree: Dun & BiadsMel

BUfatoUJa otto«t:T\<6|

ECONOMIC FORCES

• Slower U.S. growth, but no recession

• Most companies will maintain or increase capital spending

Caution over higher interest rates - Higher cost of capital - Pressure on exports


Dataquest Incorporated, a company of Ttie Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292

IKtfaeitfJaa alWrtftTtiai

S^EMICONDUCTOR DEMAND: FORCES, FORECAST, AND FEARS

Forces

• Economic

• International trade

• Semiconductor industry trends

• Company performance

• Inventory levels

miOmMi (ato»:ntO|

THE MARKET SHARE BATTLE Market Share, %

25

1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 Soiace: Daiaqiiesi



latlMoroiMa oatoafeniOl

U.S. SEMICONDUCTOR INTERNATIONAL SALES

Percent of Sales

300

250

200

150

100

50

1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 Souice: Oalaquest

IKitiowAia o^toaaTHol

YEN-TO-DOLLAR EXCHANGE RATE January 1985 to April 1989

n II 1 j::o^.;^\^,

im nil in ^^p i i j i

• • • • i ÎgJJ-fiJig^:

^P :;:;:;i'5:;:;:j:-:;::¥':;:;^^:

L 'X > '.-v'. • >X V'.- X+I "C v > I "vWI "C C" I+irC">

1 1

l i. %¥:

1 1

t'l;

3? +;*i'

II II H

i

1 1 1

1 1 1

i i

1 1 1

i l ^Â'.v;^',*.^^

î^SiJSwi;:* ^^:^^^':y^x^^y:^^:&:

1 1 J OIÎ

. • . • . ^ K-' I

II II

I CCi i •! "C "^^X "i»!' K •

• M

-:y

:^» ^

II 1

1 ^

11 1 1 1 1 1 1 r _ffTT^ff-^^Cgr ' t m 11

1

1 II

1

1 1

1

1 1

1

1 1

1

1 1

1

1 1

1

1 1

1 1 II • ^ j l

1

1 •

1 1 1

1 1 1 1 1 I I

:;:;.;:::-..;-

XvM-M^M+X'Xi'-t-i'Xv-'-M'^^'M-i-X;:::

^x^^^^^x^^sf^-^^^^l^^^^^^-^^^î^^tvt^^^^

itt^Sl :fem>,¥::fe«ii::

Hiîiiiiil i ; •:•& fi^ > / • ' • X v

S i'iv

H 1 • ' i w

11 «f>\

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N O J F M A M J J A S O N O J F M A M J J A S O N O J F M A

1985 —*\^ 1986 4- 1987 — 4 " 1988 H 1989 Souioe: Dataquest



iBitoai^ma oiiM4rtD:mm

UNITED STATES SEMICONDUCTOR Difference between Consumption and Production

DRAM SRAM

Nonvolatile MPU MCU

Bipolar Gate Array MOS Gate Array

MOSPLD Bipolar Std. Logic

Analog Transistor

Opto

1 ] Consumption

Production

2 1 0 1 Billions of Dollars

Soince: Oalaquest

IMIMOIInUd OMMWBrltiai

UNITED STATES SEMICONDUCTOR Consumption/Production Profile

DRAM SRAM

Nonvolatile MPU MCU


MOS PLD Bipolar Std. Logic

Analog Transistor

Opto

^ B uunaun by US.

Produa iiyU.&

ed

d

1 0 1 Billions of Dollars

Source: Dataquest

© 1989 Dataquest Incorporated May 24 — Reproduction Prohibited Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation

1290 Ridder Park Drive San Jose CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292

mitioiiaa" ?lf!B\

JAPANESE SEMICONDUCTOR Consumption/Production Profile

DRAM SRAM

Nonvolatile MPU MCU



Analog Transistor

Opto

:

Consumed by Japan

Produced by Japan

1 0 1 Billions of Dollars

Souice: Dataquest

IhifewuJia cUoumL'TMil

JAPANESE SEMICONDUCTOR Difference t}etween Consumption and Production

DRAM SRAM

Nonvolatile MPU MCU



Analog Transistor

Opto

tijiirji Production

I

10

^

^3

m m

B 3

IT^JJ

1 1 0 1

Billions of Dollars

Source: Dataquest


1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292

mianoitlta oawMftingl

EUROPEAN SEMICONDUCTOR Consumption/Production Profile

DRAM SRAM

Nonvolatile MPU MCU



Analog Transistor

Opto

1.0 05 0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

Billions of Dollars Souice: Daiaquest

IHfl15301g.Wg OBHWWfcfHOI

EUROPEAN SEMICONDUCTOR Difference between Consumption and Production

DRAM SRAM

Nonvolatile MPU MCU



Analog Transistor

Opto

EMj ^

|;::::::::;:::x

Consumption Production

«»««*•

m

mi! nil

m m

I i m I

2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0 0.5 Billions of Dollars

1.0 1.5 2.0

Souice: Dataquest



iBai»30i7.iiiid (gamfctHBl

REST OF WORLD SEMICONDUCTOR Consumption/Production Profile

DRAM SRAM

Nonvolatile MPU MCU



Analog Transistor

Opto

M I I H

luiui

ED I

Hi

E OH

^ i

IHD Consumed by Rest of World

2.0 15 1.0 0.5 0 0.5

Billions of Dollars

Produced by Rest of World

_ J I I 1.0 1.5 2.0

Source: Dataquest

IMl5i0l».ltrB TBOl

REST OF WORLD SEMICONDUCTOR Difference tietween Consumption and Production

DRAM SRAM

Nonvolatile MPU MCU



Analog Transistor

Opto

^

consumption Productiion

J L-2.0 15 1.0 0.5 0 0.5

Billions of Dollars 1.0 15 2.0

Source: Dataquest


Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Parl< Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292

mitjii^iwa oiwtwtntoi

WHERE DO THEY GET THEIR REVENUE?

North American Companies (Percent of 1988 Revenue)

9.6% ROW \ 19.7% Europe

10.4% Japan

60.4% North America

Souice: Daiaqueat

laniitoama (ii*»toin<>i


Japanese Companies (Percent of 1988 Revenue)

9.8% ROW ^ 5.7% Europe

71.8% Japan

12.8% North America Souioe: Oaiaquest


1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292

IWIBiW ua oWaWtTWOI


ROW Companies (Percent of 1988 Revenue)

54.2% ROW

^ 11.7% Europe 4.4% Japan

29.7% North America

Souioe: Dataquest

mib02g. lMG <B«3W9:TWOj


Forces

Economic

International trade


Company performance

Inventory levels



ia5153023.IMG 06Waffla:Tw6|

WORLDWIDE SEMICONDUCTOR SHIPMENT FORECAST

Billions of Dollars

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

SSSSiSSS!!

«iS

^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ W

, . . , n ^

issaswsftWi i g g s ; ^ ^ v'vVv^ yyWWVS*»

KWiSKftWS

jjcmi*j*B" T^^yn '"^

^^^^^^^^w

1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 Source: Dataquest

ia5itoog^.iM6 08«w6:^H6l

AVERAGE NORTH AMERICAN SEMICONDUCTOR SALES

RELATIVE TO LONG-TERM TREND Millions of Dollars 100

75

50

25

-25 -50 -75

-100

\

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M

— 1986 H- 1987 'I' 1988 •] 1989 Souice: Dataquest



IBiiiteslUa 06tow:TH6t

NORTH AMERICAN SEMICONDUCTOR THREE-MONTH AVERAGE BOOKINGS

Millions of Dollars 1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0

g M a i c n - j j ^ ^

mm-mMî\\^'^'n IMM-tme HkiWi;

w^^m^ "•1 ••5- -rf^r

~:—.\\.^ ^ ; - . . ' • : . : % T - j : ; - ; ; : • • • • • • . . . . • ^ . . - l i ' L l H : - ! ! . : - ! ' : ]

VF-r

^ T ^ g S S r ^ 1 ^

1 1 l^ ' " " r ' "^g^MwB7fch |_ j tn_ P F ^ o 5 ^ L ^ . . . . . O ^ 1 . V. . . [^ i i r i r^ . -g l tL^^- jLL^Ji i^r i rp j

l!!!?!isS'B3fesrssST:=sr;-™Si^

i 5™™^^s^s^^

- : " . { ; i l i i^ ;^^™™=^

?:-;:jr::;;; ;.r/""i":=:v: |T:-::-;.;"::. 3i;r '^\; i i i l f i ; :-^;^î iM^^^

;jîS5;;.-S,:E;sjSi5

•-oiST^'ryi",'E.Ti-in^=;-T''^:T["-r'i

' l ^ r l? i rn ' { ; ' \ i : ' : ' - ' t : 'n ' l •': 7~]'^'- ^-••- - ^ c - ' j ; l - I . i.

f ^ ; l ^ | : ; : ] T 4 ^ T ^ 3 = ^ ^ ^ ^

-n-i:.-:{r;.T-:i-i i4;;^^?îJ

• •'••',••• : • : • ; • ' • L - l i J ^ i E r i l l ^ f ^

i ' ^ ' ^ . T T T

4iV;^D--:t;;- Li/r-l:!:- L'J. ;!'; il:^:-; i.Ll TJ^JJ.LliL. ,-J: •i.LW'i -^

ssiSKli f lsiBSsSi&J'î '^Tr ':•;•: i^"'fr;"? il'li'SLj^îiT — I " " : ^ : i i - L -' "',' ••-!-;— I""-—'•• i i i r - ' - . ^ • • • - • • • . • . : - r ; -•:^T^-^n--T-ifr^-^^^^?^^^^^^^^^^•^J=??^"

" • v |

:--'':;'i S.t^:

WmmMM^ i s -

• I . ^V ' . i . i g l iTTn-n^r^ .^ --.

JSa^K»jt;»? Ti l j j . - - i-i-.i.; :-^r

: .y: : ;^: i¥Trrs- is™s^^^ ^ ^ - n r • i = i i ^ : i : i i i ^ ^ j r jL j . . . •. • - . . • . . . • •

4JsSyS2S^SS3l;-L;j-;l^.:;i:j:..: i.iivi:':

-^J^^îv3a^::^^;.,:•!^-;-;^•.i,v;-!^•v:^v•^J^:-:T7^:^•^^-^-^^--^- • , - •:: . . , v E . - - - ^ . v ^ t i = ; ^ . . ^ - : . . . . : ! ; : . • : : . . ; ; : ; - - . . . . .

::; .:.;|;

^ j i ^ T r r i ! ' •:

•^r-!-;;^:!:; \ '• ^

- i lT jT iJ^JT^

Ti^lfTl-IÂ"^

ti^TT^îfî

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M

l-i 1986 — »j« 1987 ^- 1988 — • — ^ 1989 Souico: Sofnfconduclor Industry Association

Dataquest

|g»nh«».**5 06MW»:TOol


Long-Term Trend Millions of Dollars 1,400

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N O J F M A M J J A S O N O J F M

l-i 1986 '^ 1987 >\* 1988 ^ 1989 Souice: SemJconduclor Indusby Association

Dataquest


Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation


BBIMtofJM i taJM^mOl


RELATIVE TO LONG-TERM TREND Millions of Dollars 100

75

50

25

0

-25

-50

-75

-100 iipii J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N O J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M

h- 1986 H- 1987 4 . 1988 ——H 1989 Souico! DattKiuest

Ifatikrtiiiia flato«>:TV<u|


Forces

Economic

International trade


Company performance

Inventory levels



\titi3oa.m 06i(>u89:TM6|

CONCENTRATION OF POWER Cnrtpany Revenue ($B)

Share of Total Market

....................

li^jjiraiii

i ^ slaS:?: alW^i i-mc^-

^^^^^m

ii fti-•iiiMm •.mm^i^

§ • 1988

i r a 1983

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 2 0 2 2 24 2 6 2 8 3 0 3 2 3 4 3 6 3 8 4 0 4 2 4 4 4 6 4 8 5 0

Industry Rank

Soiace: Daaquest

mitowi.lMQ oBwaffla-gol

TOP 10 SEMICONDUCTOR COMPANIES' WORLDWIDE REVENUE

NEC Ibshiba Hitachi

Motorola Texas instruments

Fujitsu Intel

Mitsubishi Matsushita

Philips

2 3 Billions of Dollars

Souos; Oa^quest



mitoCT.ma MAh^Kb\


Forces

Economic

International trade


Company performance

Inventory levels

rg!liMii3t.*ld oawamt^ol

DAYS OF SEMICONDUCTOR INVENTORY FOR ALL USERS

Days Relative to Target

12

6

3

0

-3

sPiiiil iiiiiii

111 I;: I \A, u.

I 5

M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A l-i 1987 4* 1988 H-^ 1989—H

Souioe: Dataquest



IKiiiiti4ii TTO]

ACTUAL INVENTORY RELATIVE TO TARGET Actual Days of Inventory 50

20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 Target Days of Inventory

Souce: Dataouest

IBtiitoiJMa am«B:1Uo\

SEMICONDUCTOR DEMAND FORCES, FORECAST, AND FEARS

Forecast

Buyers' expectations

Important markets

Emerging and fast-growing markets

Semiconductor forecast

Hot semiconductor products



BUYERS' EXPECTATIONS Expected Change in Target Inventory Levels

(Percent of Total Respondents)

lflittoo«>.i»» osrowtTHOI

^ ^

Increase

Decrease

Stay the

Same

•S .1 "Z"! rSf i ! : : : : : : "iiz tii i

19S7 1988 1989

T

' T ' 1 * t y i*J Titii H JJi i i i i i J ••••••'•• ' - y * • • • • • • • — ••'

I 10 20 30

Percent 40 50

Source: Dataquest

[a5tS303BlMG flB/03/«):A<U|

BUYERS' EXPECTATIONS

Users expect to increase semiconductor purchases by 17.8% percent In 1989

Souice: Dataquest



ItoisaoJT.iMQ o6/oawo:Ttio|

BUYERS* EXPECTATIONS

The Users' Track Record

ExpemEtions 'Hndustry Total

6.2% 21.4%

.. ^^24.7%

* Dataquest Forecast

Souioe: Dataquest

iB5IS3041.IWQ flawaW):Tmj|


Forecast

• Buyers' expectations

• Important markets

• Emerging and fast-growing markets

• Semiconductor forecast

• Hot semiconductor products


1290 Bidder Parl< Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292

UJtiUii.iJa yam

ESTIMATED WORLDWIDE ELECTRONICS MARKETS

Data Processing |

Communications p i M i ^

Industrial I

Consumer

Military

Transportation

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Billions of Dollars

Souce: Dataquest

ltei53iM3.i*iii osidiim^lHy}

U.S. COMPUTERS AND OFFICE EQUIPMENT Percent Change 25

20

15

10

5

0

-5

-10

n h L • • • 12/12 Shipments j • ;• 1 k .. - - ^ ^ T . 1 . . i 1 ) 1 F U A • • 12/12 Bookinqs

\. S. ^ •^ r*"^J''^* '

4 \ ". 'V'"' ] s,. iilo ' J^"'"v'i

J F M A M J J A S O N O J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N O J F

h 1985 4* 1986 •!- 1987 4" 1988 H 1989 Soureo: Dinjjt In MI^ of Conmmce

Daiaquest



IBinioB.iWa ce^aMb:^6|

U.S. COMMUNICATIONS EQUIPMENT Percent Change

J F M A M J J A S O N O J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F

H 1985 4- 1986 H- 1987 4* 1988 H 1989 Soivco: Osparfinont of ConHncfCO

DatSKiuost

IWmti^ H A cBiiii^THOj

U.S. INSTRUMENTATION Percent Change

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N O J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F

h 1985 4- 1986 •I" 1987 4" 1988 H 1989 SouRw: Departmenl of Commerce

Dataquest



jB5l53tt<6-)MG 05/0a«b:'rtloi


Forecast






|gtiiii<t4>.IMB <i»n>/tefl<a|

FASTEST-GROWING LARGE MARKETS

Segment

Estimated U.S. Revenue (Millions of Dollars)

1988 ' 1992 CAGR

Processing Terminals Optical Disk Drives Electronic Publishing 3- to 4-Inch Disk Drives Workstations Factory Networks LAN Connections Cellular Radio Voice Messaging Systems 3.5-Inch Floppy Drives

0.1 0.4 1.6 3.7 1.9 0.7 2.4 3.6 0.5 1.1

1.0 3.0 6.6

14.2 4.8 1.7 5.4 7.9

15.8 17.5

86.7% 61.8% 42.4% 39.5% 25.6% 23.9% 22.4% 21.9%

137.2% 99.7%

SotHce: Dalaquest



IKis3iH4.iMa cMnrtttlBol


Forecast






gimMOjmo o6/(wao:fflo]

WORLDWIDE SEMICONDUCTOR SHIPMENTS HISTORY AND FORECAST

Billions of Dollars

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

^11 I I llliliisn I

1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993

Souioe: Oalaquest



|B5ta3051.IMG 06«W80:THO|

WORLDWIDE SEMICONDUCTOR CONSUMPTION FIVE-YEAR FORECAST GROWTH PATTERN

Rve-Year Growth Rictor

31

25

2

1.5

1

0.5

' : '>M- ' : ; : :>>>I>>7HW^; •'''•M'>:':*:*:r:r:r:-:,>>:.>:.x.:r:r;.,,..i ^..,.,,,,,............., !

The Industry revenue more than doubles

every five years

1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 Souice: Dalaquest

nSiAioso.iMfl oinvio-.TUol

WORLDWIDE SEMICONDUCTOR CONSUMPTION QUARTER-TO-QUARTER GROWTH RATES

Percent of Dollars

01 Q2 03 04 01 02 03 04 01 02 03 04 I-" 1988 <]" 1989 4- 1990

Soivce: Dalaquest



Ifeii»i^.*a o»WAP:BJ6l

NORTH AMERICAN SEMICONDUCTOR CONSUMPTION QUARTER-TO-QUARTER GROWTH FORECAST

Percent of Dollars

15

10

5

0

-5

-10

2snk

11.4%

6.2% 73%

ai%

<3H £3%

•«3% |::::::::1

•moor -1JB%

unnr -12%

-&2%

Q1 02 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 04 Q1 Q2 Q3 04 I-— 1988 —^i^ 1989 4- 1990

Somco! DataquGst

misiWwSliMO oa»<wo:'rwo|

NORTH AMERICAN SEMICONDUCTOR CONSUMPTION QUARTERLY REVENUE FORECAST

Billions of Dollars

02 03 04 01 02 03 04 01 02 03 04 - 1988 '\^ 1989 4- 1990

Somce: Dalaqiiest



IKi53<a4*i<i iBmmy.Ku\

NORTH AMERICAN SEMICONDUCTOR CONSUMPTION QUARTERLY REVENUE FORECAST

Billions of Dollars

7

6

5 4

3

2

1

n

fHIil MOS Memory

^M All Other Semiconduclors

li:;!i;!H ^M t 1 h::!""! L::::::: E « ^ > > . . » l I . A O X O ^ [ < * » « * > «

liijIjriHfl^^B "

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 II

:!::;:::

rTTTTTTTl

1 1 1 I I I

|j^i|||ii

: : : : : : : J H —

^ I s l S II

1 1 1 1

1 1 Q1 Q2 Q3 0 4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 1988 -« 1989 '

Q1 Q2 Q3 0 4 1990

Source: Dataquest

|BSl530».ii«G <g«waa:TtiO|

ESTIMATED WORLDWIDE SEMICONDUCTOR CONSUMPTION

MOS MEMORY AND MICROCOMPONENTS Billions of Dollars

1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 Souree: Oalaquesl



ItoiMoaioia Qgwattfl^lJI

ESTIMATED WORLDWIDE SEMICONDUCTOR CONSUMPTION MOS LOGIC AND BIPOLAR LOGIC

Billions of Dollars

1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 Souce: Oaiaquest

Altaos>-*ld flS/04fflO:THo1

ESTIMATED WORLDWIDE SEMICONDUCTOR CONSUMPTION

ANALOG AND DISCRETE COMPONENTS Billions ot Dollars

1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 Sowce: Dataquest


1290 Ridder Park Drive San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292

l^isaw.iUfl mtano-^Ud]


Forecast






IBiMnaSliMG OM)OW>:THUI

A DRAM-HUNGRY WORLD

Worldwide PC Memory Content Forecast

1 Mbyte 3-4 Mbytes

1988 1990

6-8 Mbytes

1992

(Average memory content for new PCs shipped in a particular year)



ISistomiUa <gMii«t:ft<ol

A DRAM-HUNGRY WORLD Estimated PC DRAM Consumption as a Percentage

of Worldwide DRAM Production

1986

1988 1990

PC Other

Source: Ddaquest

|M^4ioiaii« oawwa^ul

HOT SEMICONDUCTOR PRODUCTS

Product

FIFO Video RAM Palette DACs

(Millions of Dollars)

High-Speed A/D Converters PC Chip Sets Switching Regulators

1988

56 244 104 115 397

83

1992

142 626 250 260 775 210

CAGR

26.2% 26.5% 24.5% 22.6% 18.2% 26.0%

30%

15% ^

Semiconductors with growth rates between 15 and 30 percent

1988 1992 Souice: Daiaquest



imMo*4.Ma JBSsasim

SUPER-HOT SEMICONDUCTOR PRODUCTS


Product

RISC Microprocessors BiCMOS SRAM w/ECL I/O BiCMOS Gate Arrays CMOS PLDs Digital Signal Processors High Performance Graphics 32-Bit Microprocessors BiCMOS SRAM wHTL I/O

1988

40 25 56

177 147 148 835

65

1992

548 332 598 971 695 547

2,745 214

CAGR

92.4% 91.8% 78.5% 53.0% 47.5% 38.6% 36.5% 34.9%

3(rn

15%

r J / .

~rx ^ n

l^ f

•

Semiconductors with growth rates greater than 30 percent

1988 1992 Souce: Dataquest

IbistortiUS itioitm.niu]

CONCLUSIONS

• Long-term outlook (five years) is for aggressive growth

• Intermediate outlook (18 months) generally flat with some months slightly down. Computer market unsettled, causing great concern.

• Tighter inventory control and ^ster production cycles result in month-to-month variations in order rates

• Capacity generally not strained, resulting in high percentage of turns business

• Semiconductor manufacturers have low backlogs and low visibility to future business; consequently, cautious about future business


1290 Ridder Parl< Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292

iMtaoitf.iiaa oMMfflfciHui

All things considered, the current semiconductor market environment is more lil^e a road with

roclis, ruts, and potholes going up a mountain rather than a smooth ride like falling off a cliff.



DataQuest a company of The Dun& Brathtreet OMporation

|BSg71001.IMG 06/10/»a<A|


DRAMS AND ASICs AS TECHNOLOGY DRIVERS

KRISHNA SHANKAR Industry Analyst

Semiconductor Equipment and Materials Service Dataquest Incorporated


Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive San Jose CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292

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Is It easier to produce a million jelly beans than a box of Godlva chocolates?

The Jelly Bean Factory The Candy Shoppe

T

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AGENDA

• Memory and ASIC markets • Industry structure • Semiconductor technology drivers • DRAM technology and process equipment • ASIC technology and process equipment • Special ASIC process Innovations • Fab configuration • Synergy and convergence • Conclusions



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WORLD MEMORY AND ASIC MARKETS Billions of Dollars

25

20

15

10

5

Wm SRAMs "nn-DRAMS' I I ASICs

1987

mm 'mv'i

mM

•\<: Xi ^

^

• i«w»

I: 1989 1991

Calendar Year

?M§J

ViVÂ'v^'i

s-ms

1993

Source: D^quest

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INDUSTRY STRUCTURE

DRAMS ASICs

O Capital intensive

O Oligopolistic structure

C5 Low product differentiation

O Vertically integrated

companies

O One product per

technology generation

© Customer-service intensive

6 Numerous competitors

© High product differentiation

© Small merchant companies and

large captive companies

© Hundreds of low-volume

products for each

technology generation



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TECHNOLOGY DRIVERS

DRAMS ASICs

CD High volume/low cost O Advanced device structures O Submicron lithography CD "Hardwired" automation

© Low-volunne/time to nfiarket @ Design automation © Multilevel interconnect © "Flexible" automation

|BSg710O7.MG 06/1(Weg:SHA^

MINIMUM DESIGN RULES Gate Arrays and DRAMs

^ ^ ^ i 1991 ,500K Gate Array r ^ ^ ^ l ^ 1989 16 Mbit DRAM

™ ™ T

1987 100K Gate Array 1985 1 Mbit DRAM

1985 20K Gate Array g ^ l l ^ ^ ' ^ ^ ^ ^ l ^ ^ P i n 1983 256K DRAM

X

Gate Arrays ^ DRAMS

1 1 2 3

Minimum Design Rule (Microns) W

Source: Dataquest



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"AVERAGE" INDUSTRY METAL LEVEL Gate Arrays and DRAMs

^ ^ ^ S f t S f t ' ^ l f t S i f f t h ? : ^ : ' ^ ^ * ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^

.-A'-y^AVA.y.n^';

I i 16 Mbit DRAM

^^"•'^•••••'••'^'••' ^ l l ^ i : : - . J . ^

'rJhVlHjWvSSM

4 Mbit DRAM

TJTTTJ^^SH™?'

I 500K Gate Array

200K Gate Array

S3SSSSSS!55SS5IMSOTS^^5E5S^S!5SS5?35SSS3^SSSfei™M««;:a ,nt\if fata A,f=w iW>lW(yww>)i'vy>> w/.v- i-.-i- - •yt-'.-i-mwww .YiYiWjfjii-.-iWi-.-.-yw J

- ;PP lv | | i | yv^ , V- % ] 1 Mbit DRAM

20K Gate Array ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ •v- -v, "- iS^^^m^ . ^ ^ 256KDRAM

Gate Arrays DRAMs

2 3

Number of Metal Levels Sourtse: Dataquesl

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TYPICAL 4Mb DRAM TECHNOLOGY

Features

O High-quality EPI

C^ Retrograde wells

O Deep capacitor trenches

O Stacked capacitor

O Oxide-nitride-oxide dielectric

c:> Trench refill CVD oxide

<^ 0.8-micron gate length

Process/Equipment Needs

Economical EPI process?

High-dose/high-energy implants

High throughput, low RIE damage

Conventional etch process

Vertical furnace or RTP

TEOS conformal CVD reactors

Submicron capability steppers



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PROCESS STRUCTURE FOR IBM's 4Mb DRAM

Bit Line Word Line Silicide

Vertical Parasitic FET

Trench Capacitor

Source: lEDM

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TECHNOLOGY FOR 200K TRIPLE-METAL ASIC GATE ARRAY

Feature

© Salicide © Local interconnect © Planarized CVD between metals

© Contact and VIA plugs © Triple-metal interconnect

© Custom metallization option © Many product configurations

Process/Equipment Need

RIP titanium silicide RTP titanium nitride Spin-on-glass planarization

or In-situ PECVD planarization Tungsten CVD High-resolution, defect-free

interconnect patterning Flexible photoetch process Quick-turn maskmaking;

good reticle management



i6&271012IMG 06/1WeaSHA|

FUTURE CMOS 200K TRIPLE-METAL ASIC GATE ARRAY

VIA-2 Plug

VIA-1 Plug

Contact Plug

X X CVD-3

X ^ s^'

CVD-2 B Mi ,1 . Locaj Planarlzed CVD-1

.^ / Ifiofconoea '^^fe^.

^

Metal-3

Metai-2

Metai-l

Source: Dataquest

|BS27t013.mG 06/Wep-aiAt

ASIC PROCESS AND EQUIPMENT INNOVATIONS

©Laser-based interconnect patterning; quick-turn ASICs

g Focused ion beam tungsten direct-write interconnects

© E-beam lithography for maskless, direct-write ASICs

© Single-wafer etching and deposition systems

© Steppers with elaborate reticle management

© Multiproduct, computer-integrated manufacturing



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FAB CONFIGURATION

4Mb DRAM Fabs ASIC Fabs

O Maxifabs($150M-$200M)

C^ High-volume, single product

c:> Dedicated automation

O Serial "assembly line"

C5 Fab organized by function

O High throughput, dedicated

steppers for each layer

O Mix of batch and single-

wafer processing

© Minifabs ($20M.$50M)

© Low-volume, multiproduct

© Programmable automation

© Autonomous lines in parallel

© Fab organized by product

© Flexible steppers with low

setup time

© Single-wafer processing

equipment

© Portable/desktop fabs?

|5g71(nSIWG CWIQWaAHAl

SYNERGY AND CONVERGENCE

• ASIC products with increasing on-chip SRAM memory

• Custom DRAMs and SRAMs for video, graphics applications

• Universal BiCMOS process for ASICs and high-speed SRAMs

• DRAM process trend toward 3-D silicon structure

• Multilevel interconnect technology now standard for ASIC and memory products

• Memory producers getting into ASIC manufacturing to balance fab capacity and offer one-stop shops

• Modular, reliable, flexible architecture equipment needed



|M71016.HiG 06'10We:&HA|

CONCLUSIONS

• DRAMs drive silicon device innovations and low-cost/high volume manufacturing

• ASICs drive design automation, multilevel interconnect technology, and flexible manufacturing

• Evolving synergy between memory (especially SRAMs) and ASIC processes

• Equipment design needs to be modular, highly reliable, and offer a "systems solution" to IC manufacturing

• Equipment and processes need to offer "open systems architecture"

|h&2710l7J<G 06/tOWOaiA|

T

I I ~n—n—n—rt

JH^HE



DataQuest a company of llieDun&BradstreetCorpOTation

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Dataquest's Annual SEMICONAVest Seminar May 24, 1989

A COMPARISON OF JAPANESE AND U.S. FABS

MARK T. REAGAN Industry Analyst




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AGENDA

Current capacity analysis

New tabs and 200mm-wafer activity

Market response strategies

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AGENDA




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ESTIMATED SILICON PILOT AND PRODUCTION LINES

On-Shore Only

Number of Fab Lines

25

1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 Source: Dataquest

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SILICON-BASED FABS

Production Lines Source: Dataquest



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More Fabs In United States

But Japanese Fabs Are Bigger

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PRODUCT MIX

Memory MPU Logic ASIC Other

Japan 39%

United States 25%

7% 6% 14% 34%

14% 8% 26% 27% Source: Dataquest


Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, Sari Jose CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292

IBS^aaoio.iMG c f t « a « r ^

SILICON PILOT AND PRODUCTION LINES Monthly Capacity by Wafer Size

200mm 150mm 125mm 100mm 3-Inch 2-Inch

Source: Dataquest

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WAFER SIZE


Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive San Jose CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292

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LINE GEOMETRIES

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MICRON MIX

<^\l <^.5\l <2.o^ <2L\I < 3 ^ ^ 3 ^

Japan

United States

26%

18%

33%

33%

27%

23%

0

4%

10% 4%

12% 12% Source: Dataquest



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AGENDA


New tabs and 200mm-wafer activity

|B51330U.tMG 06«9rtO.i—[

ESTIMATED SILICON PILOT AND PRODUCTION LINES

Onshore Only

Number of Fab Lines

m Japan fi^ United States

1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991

Source: Dataquest



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8-INCH PILOT AND PRODUCTION LINES

1987 1988

1989

1990

Japan

NEC, Sagamihara IBM, Yasu Works Fujitsu, Mie Tl, Hiji Plant

Fujitsu, Iwate Hitachi, Musashi IBM, Yasu Works NEC, Sagamihara Tl, Miho?

United States

IBM, Burlington IBM, Burlington

Tl, Dallas IBM, E. Fishkill IBM, Burlington IBM, Burlington

8-INCH PILOT AND PRODUCTION LINES

Japan United States

1991 NEC, Chugoku Toshiba, Gita

1992 1993 NEC, Chugoku

Toshiba, Gita

NEC, Roseville Tl, Dallas Motorola, Gakhlll? Tohoku Semiconductor? Intel, Rio Rancho

Source: Dataquest


Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Rldder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292

I519300SJMG 0 & > 0 9 f K / 7 ^

AGENDA

• Current capacity analysis

• New tabs and 200mm-wafer activity

• Market response strategies

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FAB CONSTRUCTION TIMETABLE

Permits Break Ground Install Turn On

and to Complete Clean Room to Full

Planning Shell and Equipment Production

Japan 1 Year 7 Months 7 Months 6 to 9 Months

United states 5 Months 11 Months 11 Months 1 to 11/4 Years

Source: Dataquest


Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Parl< Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292

IS193018JMG 0&H»flOTMl

TWO APPROACHES TO BUILDING A FAB

Japan

One-step shopping for architecture and engineering

United States

Hire a person to act as a contractor

Established relationships among owner, contractor, and subcontractors

Contractor uses bidding system

Very little bidding Company may not have the same subcontractors building all fabs

(Continued)

I&1930T9JMG oMiaeaTwl


Japan

Less friction between subcontractors; teamwork

Ergonomic coordination

Design and planning is completed before breaking ground

Changes usually are not allowed after ground is broken

United States

- Political friction

- Get in each other's way

- Design as you build

Delays due to internal conflicts and changes after the fact

(Continued)



|6i93QeoJi*3 oawwes^iSI


Japan

Contractor is responsible from design to installation of equipment

Contractor guarantees operating performance and equipment installation schedule

United States

Contractor usually not involved in the whole process

Subcontractors point fingers at each other

^ a^oa^tD^]

CONCLUSIONS

Japanese manufacturing is leading edge

Technology and techniques are moving from Japanese fabs to U.S. fabs



DataQjiest aconmanyof The Dun & Bradstieet Corporation

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Dataquest's Annual SEMICONAVest Seminar May 24, 1989

CAPITAL SPENDING: STABILITY ACHIEVED

GEORGEBURNS Industry Analyst




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Happy days were here again (what happened last year)

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SEMICONDUCTOR CAPITAL SPENDING GROWTH IN 1988

Percent Change, 1987-1988

120

Japan U.S. Europe ROW World Souice: Dataquest



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HOW DID WE DO? Forecast Comparison

Billions of Dollars

30

25

20

15

10

rnnil May ISSS Forecast

bas h

^ - - - ^

lay 1989 Fore

BSfiffifflfiS

:ast

miiimiiimiff

-d iS^^^ ' '

U ""'

^

^ ^ ^

I

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 Souice: Dataquest

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Happy days will probably continue (forecasts)



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ESTIMATED SEMICONDUCTOR PRODUCTION BY REGION

Billions of Dollars

60

50

40

30

20

10

0 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 m

-ffl -Si

m

. 1 1 Japan r United 1 Europe

rm.

u ^

btate

li

!S

nun

ts mill

uE ssjssri 1^ irtftfl

^ * ^

m^ itLti;^

illlllllVV^^^^

( • • I " " r1

J /

#1 ^

« ^

a L*

Year Souice: Dataquest

IBsaTSOIO.llWj 06/0OWg.a(JH|

ESTIMATED PRODUCTION IN EUROPE AND ROW

Billions of Dollars

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93

Year Souice: Daiaquest

C^

BS

null

-Eu'ope 1 ROW

lllll^ lllllt Q : :

lUlU mm ux ^ mill iiii y

! « «

ott ^

, 1

U^ ^

#*] —.ivV

ftw**

1 u

^ p^

%

/

^

.4 [^

I



Ito>501».*<<i 0»A10«8:SJ51

ESTIMATED CAPITAL SPENDING BY REGION

Billions of Dollars

14

1 ^

m lU

n U

p U i1

o

0 lUU

iMji Japan ^ ) D United |Stat

_BK_ Europe • b ROW

l!U!l ilU^ i m

s

ii U <

d W%* 4 u

A

.....Tv\SS

[^<(S[«»" 1" »i;;£.H<<«f»^

•*1 r

i

/

u U' eJ^ * ^

75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93


a75oa)-iMG o6rto/es:Bu'H1

CAPITAL SPENDING AND PRODUCTION Actual vs. Trend

l-og (Capital Spending and Production)

5.5

5

4.5

4

3.5

3

2.5

i!!<a

^

B«*

j C

' ^

u C!fi!>

•3 i

fitfll

u

^

^

Kse

U*

a«s

0^

^

^

^

**M

^tS fiSWi

' ^ i

RK!(i

StS

*!!«

S ^

nrni

•11

ssc

S"

Pro

aini

• ! •

duct

ImW

\iiS

on/

ISSH

• * *

ctua

"Production Trend

Capital Actual Effli Capital Trend

n f 1 1 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93

Year Souice: Oataquest


1290 Ridder Park Drive San Jose CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292

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ROW GROWTH PLANS

Taiwan

Huaion

TSMC

UMC

Winbond

l5a7»<»UJMB oawawainSI

ROW GROWTH PLANS

Offshore Investment

• Chartered Semiconductor

• Motorola

• SGS/Thomson

• Sony

• Vitelic


1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292

I B M 7 ^ 1 » . I M 6 0<i«l»t»:8uAI

ESTIMATED CAPITAL SPENDING IN ROW AND EUROPE

Closing the Gap

Billions of Dollars

3

<i.O

2

1.5

1

n c U.O

0 M l

j n ^

4A!

Europe RC

BiJ

w

0 H L: Jr'i'''

W V I ^ ^ ^ B I S ^ ^

• 11 ^ 1

1 % *

>

^ .

fw^

» 1 * l ^ * • n

. *

75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 Year

Source: Dataquest

I5275OT1.IMG 0aO9re9:BURt

ROW GROWTH PLANS

Korea

• Goldstar

• Hyundai

• Samsung


Dataquest incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Parl< Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Teiex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292

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EUROPE 1992

Production increase of $1 billion

Fujitsu

Hitachi

Texas Instruments

Toshiba 99999

I t o a ^ t o a * ^ ohioMftSiJHl

But we should bring umbrellas


1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292

|5ZyS<»7IMG <»OaBO:^urti

ESTIMATED CAGRs OF SEMICONDUCTOR REVENUE AND CAPITAL SPENDING

CAGR (CAPX) less (CAGR) Revenue

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

20

s-^n

V

ik.

/

f \ 1 V

\ ^ Ns

>

/

/

r

V \

\

\

\

\

U

i

y /

/

r

" ^ k

s ^ >

r s» ^v

77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93

Year Source: Oatac jest

|Sg750q7.]MG OaOMa9:BU(iH

ESTIMATED CAPITAL SPENDING AS A PERCENT OF REVENUE

Percentage of Revenue

30

25

20

15

10

5

n 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93




|5a'S06e.lMQ 0W>3f89BUfl|

HIGHER CAPITAL SPENDING/REVENUE

New technologies to master

Increased equipment cost

Increased fab costs

|5Z?501B.IMG 0MIQ«9:BUH|

WORLD REVENUE/PPE FORECAST Revenue/PPE

1.4

1.3

1.2

1.1

1

nq 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993

Souice: Dataquest



ItoiTsortiMiS oit«a«i>:auftl

CAPACITY UTILIZATION FORECAST Percentage

100

80

60

40

20

*'».

1 > • • • ,v

>•

»*•*" \

s mim

.^^iM,

^ "

« i a i *%* • *

• ! • • I »

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 Year

Source: Dataquest

|BS2750g1.tMG OmOfflQ:BUR|

CONCLUSIONS

Capital equipment cycles are becoming smoother

However, potential exists for overcapacity in 1994 (keep your umbrella handy!)



DataQuest • w n a company of M M B The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation

iaite<iAi.iUa naliewfeiWAI


WAFER FAB EQUIPMENT INDUSTRY STATUS 1989

JOSEPH GRENIER Director




WORLDWIDE

tezknajUS-inrtiMftSBri

WAFER FAB EQUIPMENT MARKET


1987 1988

$3,158 $4,773

Growth

5 1 % Some: Dataquest

liiS!iUS3jU& oinSSSSmg]

REGIONAL WAFER FAB EQUIPMENT MARKET

*

Japan United States Europe ROW

.


1988

$2,150 1,545

662 416

$4,773

1988 Growth

64% 42% 25% 8 1 %

5 1 %

1988 Share

45% 32 14 9

100% Sowce: Dataquest



laMZHXHUlta O IOlW iWI

WAFER FAB EQUIPMENT MARKET 1982 versus 1988

United States Japan Europe ROW

1982 1988

Source: Dataquest

lazko^MiS (WiowaigaEl

WAFER FAB EQUIPMENT COMPANIES WORLDWIDE REVENUE


Companies by Rank

1-10 11-20 21-30 31-165

1988 Percent of Revenue

52.2% 18.0 9.4

20.4

100.0% Source: Dataquest


Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation T290 Bidder Park Drive San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292

Bitoootjua o^oMBrsaei

WAFER FAB EQUIPMENT COMPANIES

>60% of the companies had revenue <$10M in 1988

12 companies had >$100M in 1988; only 4 did in 1986

These 12 companies accounted for 57% of revenue

18% of the companies provided 80% of the revenue

Concentration of power in wafer fab equipment Industry

Source: Oataquest

mriiKrfJua ojHi^tfcaMi

WAFER FAB EQUIPMENT Concentration of Power

Millions of Dollars

500

400

300

200

100

ol 1 10

- •

20 30 40 Companies

50 60

Souice: Oalaquest



b3tooi*J>a oinawaAflEI

WAFER FAB EQUIPMENT

1988 High-Growth Equipment Segments

Segment

Implant Dry Etch CD/Wafer Inspection CVD Steppers Dry Strip Track Diffusion

All Segments

Worldwide Growth

100% 96% 78% 76% 76% 73% 52% 51%

77%

Japanese Growth

145% 144% 67% 98% 99% 93% 94% 39%

101%

United States Growth

75% 68% 82% 66% 49% 40% 28%

120%

62%

Source: Oataqueet

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STEPPERS 1988

(Units)

:«

Japan United States Europe ROW Total World

1988 Growth

92% 2 1 % 15% 83% 55%

Japan has largest installed base of steppers ROW installed 40% more steppers than Europe Japan/ROW accounted for > 60% of stepper market

Source: Daiaquest



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STEPPERS 1988

Concentration of Power Market Share (Units)

Nii<on Canon GCA ASM Lithography

53% 18% 10% 6%

Souice: Oaiaquest

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LITHOGRAPHY EVENTS IN 1988

• Introduction of high-N.A. g-line lenses for 0.65-micron resolution

• At SPIE conference, g- and i-liners talked about 0.5-micron resolution

• Continued improvements in excimer laser steppers

• Perkln-Elmer announced Micrascan

• What's an X-ray? Souroe: Daaquest



l»£3cAiJiii& OBivnGBEi

CHEMICAL VAPOR DEPOSITION 1988

Unit Growth

Tube CVD 10% Nontube CVD 67%

ASP($K)

$215 $650

• 80% of the CVD market revenue growth in 1988 was due to nontube DVD

• Nontube CVD accounted for 64% of CVD market in 1988; 40% in 1985

• Tube CVD units have declined by 40%; revenue has Increased by only 16%

Smnce: Daiaquest

BtortiJufci toinw»:6MI

CHEMICAL VAPOR DEPOSITION 1988

Concentration of Power Market Share (Revenue)

Nontube Reactors Tube Reactors

Applied Materials 32% ASM International 47% Watkins-Johnson 13% BTU/Bruce 9% Genus 12% Tokyo Electron 7% Novellus 8%

Souice: Dataquest



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CD/WAFER INSPECTION 1988 Market Growth = 78%

@ ASP Growth

^ Unit Growth

• Emphasis on submicron measurement capability • Emergence of automated defect detection systems • Result is very high ASP systems

Source: Dataquest

I663230H.IMO (gnaaKSlgl

AUTOMATED WAFER INSPECTION TOOLS 1988

Kl-A and Insystems Others

Units Revenue

Source: Dataquest


Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292

lto3230ii.lMS osnwaaiSBEl

EQUIPMENT BUSINESS INDEX AND BOOK-TO-BILL

500

400

300

200

100

Shipments ($M) Book-toBill

(

J

y

/

/

\

V / \ /

^ ^

rP ^

y^ - ^

/

— Book-to-8ill 1

» 1.25

0.75

05

0.25

1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990

Somce: SEMI Dataquest

IteaaoiV.iMG (e/iowaSBEl

SEMICONDUCTOR PRODUCTION (Millions of Dollars)

12( 000

90^00

60,000

30,000

1902 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993

Souice: Dataquest



IBS323016.IMG fl6n0W9:GHEl

WAFER FAB EQUIPMENT (Millions of Dollars)

15,000

12fl00

1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993

Souice: Daiaguest

li3i30193Mi l>WH»89<5Hg|

SUMMARY

• Japan largest equipment market

• Concentration of power

• Wafer fab equipment up 18% in 1989

• Strong growth in 1991-1993 Source: Dataquest



Dataquest a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation

165137001.fcilG 06KB/ft>ww|

Dataquest's Annual SEMICONAWest Seminar May 24, 1989

SILICON WAFERS: EXISTING MARKETS

AND FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES PEGGY MARIE WOOD, Ph.D.

Industry Analyst Semiconductor Equipment and Materials Service




|5t3700g li ilG <MgW8g1WOO^

EXISTING MARKETS - SILICON AND EPITAXIAL WAFERS

Agenda

• Market overview

• Wafer pricing update

• Looking ahead at 8"

• Acquisitions revisited

fB51T7000 IMG (W2&;9L»W()C

1988 MERCHANT SILICON AND EPITAXIAL WAFER MARKET BY REGION

M Japan

^ U.S.

E] Europe

• ROW

Total = $2.16 Billion

Source: Dataquest



165137004.tMG IWg7/a0WX>]

WAFER PRICING UPDATE Polished CZ Wafers

Range in Percent Change 8

4-

0

- 4 -

- 8 -

-12-

-16

^ ^ v • A ^ • ^ / • • A • . ' •%ftAAA/l.\^AAi" L'I

'^^WVJi-V-J-J. Vr.A.\AA^.^/ .'•J-Jl. Average

Average

United States ($/Square Inch)

Japan (Yen/Square Inch)

Souice: Dataquest

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LOOKING AHEAD TO 8"

• 8" fab activity

• Wafer size forecast



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WORLDWIDE WAFER SIZE DEMAND Percent Square Inches

Wafer Diameter

200mm L"!*!*"**!*!*!

150mm ||injn|nijin ||ttttt[[l|'"ii'''ii''i^

125mm I^^^MlilliJ|l|Mll|^^

100mm liMlliillilMliiilliil^^

-^ H I

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n 1993 • 1 1988

10 20 30 40 50 Source: Dataquest

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SILICON ACQUISITIONS REVISITED

Year Company

1988 Monsanto Electonic

Materials Company

1988 Cincinnati Milacron

1987 Dynamit Nobel Silicon

1986 U.S. Semiconductor

1986 Siltec Corporation

1985 NBK Corporation

Acquired By

Huels AG

Osaka Titanium Company

Huels AG

Osaka Titanium Company

Mitsubishi Metal

Kawasaki Steel

Source: Dataquest



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SHIFTING SHARE IMPACT OF RECENT ACQUISITIONS

1988 = $2.16 Billion

Before Acquisitions After Acquisitions

Regionally Owned Companies

Japan

1.7%

U.S. Europe ROW

1.7%

1B%

Source: Dataquest

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FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES -SILICON ON INSULATOR

Agenda

• Advantages and applications

• SOI suppliers

• Technology overview

• Outlook



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WHAT IS SOI?

SOI (silicon on insulator) wafers consist of a thin epitaxial layer of silicon on an insulating layer of silicon dioxide over a silicon substrate.

Ill iiiiiiiiiiiii l U M m m Epitaxial Layer Silicon Dioxide Layer

Silicon Substrate

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SOI ADVANTAGES

• High packing density/freedom from latch-up

• High-speed operation

• Inherent radiation hardness

• High-temperature operation

• High-voltage capability

• Standard silicon processing



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SOI APPLICATIONS

Military, aerospace, automotive, and telecommunications

• Fabricated devices include: - 3-GHz ring oscillator (Hughes) - Linear ICs (Silicon General) - 16K/64K CMOS SRAMs (Tl)

Company

Applied Electron Corporation

Kopin Corporation

Ibis Technology Corporation

Spire Corporation

|51370U I M 5 ~ W 0 2 « ) W O O |

SOI WAFER SUPPLIERS

SOI Wafer Technology

EBZMR

ISE/ZMR

SIMOX

SIMOX

Initial Technology Development

Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins

MIT Lincoln Labs

Eaton Corporation

Spire, Texas Instruments

EBZMR = Electron-Beam Zone Melt Recrystallization ISE/ZMR - Isolated Silicon Epitaxy/Zone Melt Recrystallization SIMOX = Separation by IMplantatlon of OXygen

Souice: Dataquest



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SOI TECHNOLOGY OVERVIEW Isolated Silicon Epitaxy (ZMR)

Movable Upper Strip Heater

Lower Strip Heater

Wafer

Molten Zone Source: Kopin Corporation

Dataquest

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SOI TECHNOLOGY OVERVIEW Electron-Beam ZMR

Line-Source Electron Beam

Deposited Silicon

Single-Crystal Silicon

Wafer Motion Silicon-on-lnsulator (SOI) Source: Applied Electron Corporation

Dataquest



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SOI TECHNOLOGY OVERVIEW SIMOX

0+ 200 kev 1.8 x 10 8 ions/cm2

Silicon Layer ^y^^piiininn^^^ifcftHiM Oxide Layer

Source: Ibis Technology Corpotaiion Dataquest

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SOI OUTLOOK

Moving Down the Learning Curve

• Lower defect densities

• Lower wafer prices



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SOI OUTLOOK

Moving Down the Learning Curve

• Lower defect densities

• Lower wafer prices

New Market Opportunities



DataQuest a company of Tlic Dun & Bradslreet Corporation

T V ' n a company of

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JAPANESE SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT MARKET STATUS

KAZ HAYASHI Industry Analyst

Semiconductor Equipment and Materials Service Dataquest Japan Limited



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AGENDA

Semiconductor production analysis and forecast

Capital spending analysis and forecast

Fabrication equipment demand analysis - Lithography - Etch and clean - Deposition - Diffusion and rapid thermal processing (RTP) - Implantation

Summary

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ESTIMATED JAPANESE SEMICONDUCTOR PRODUCTION AND CAPITAL SPENDING

1984-1988


1984 1985 1986 1987 1988

Japanese Semiconductor $12,007 $10,651 $14,686 $18,958 $25,903 Production

Capital Spending $3,900 $3,336 $1,850 $2,432 $4,568

Source: Oataquest



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ESTIMATED JAPANESE SEMICONDUCTOR PRODUCTION AND CAPITAL SPENDING

1989-1993


1989 1990 1991 1992 CAGR

1993 1988-93

Japanese Semiconductor $29,632 $28,492 $32,537 $39,270 $51,536 15% Production

Capital Spending $5,488 $4,972 $6,915 $9,439 $12,864 23% Source: Dataquest

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ESTIMATED JAPANESE COMPANY CAPITAL SPENDING

Company

Total

1980

$638


Calendar Year

1981 1982 1983

Fujitsu Hitachi Matsushita Mitsubishi NEC Oki Sanyo Sharp Toshiba Others

$111 93 89 36

133 53 36 38 49

0

$834 $921 $1,698

1984

$ 4 8 5 506 464 274 544 110 135 110 574 468

$3,671

Source: Dataquest


Dataquest incorporated, a company of Tfie Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Dnve, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Teiex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292

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ESTIMATED JAPANESE COMPANY CAPITAL SPENDING

Company

Fujitsu Hitachi Matsushita Mitsubishi NEC Oki Sanyo Sharp Toshiba Others

1984

(Millions of Dollars) Calendar Year

1985 1986 1987 1988

$ 462 500 385 308 423 285 223 269 615

1.015

1989

$ 462 538 462 385 538 308 269 346 615

1,508

% Change 1988-1989

0% 8%

20% 25% 27%

8% 2 1 % 29%

0% 48%

Total $3,671 $3,219 $1,766 $2,345 $4,485 $5,431 2 1 %

Source: Dataquest

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ESTIMATED JAPANESE CAPITAL SPENDING


15,000

12,000

9,000

6,000

3,000

0 vT'X'v./Cv •-VvV^VA/

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V k V i V ^ ^ V . V i ' ^ ' i ^

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^ - ^ A V l ^ J ' .n^W^V, ÂAAATW A/WW^y-, ^^'^"•HrV^ ^V-V^rt/JAA ^ ^

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îmani 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993

Source: Dataquest


Dataquest Incorporated, a company of Ttie Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292

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JAPANESE WAFER FAB EQUIPMENT MARKET

1982

$580


1988

$2,150

CAGR


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JAPANESE FABRICATION EQUIPMENT MARKET


Etch and Clean Deposition Diffusion and RTF Implantation

Total

1982

$76 121 48 48

$293

1988

$ 396 414 129 220

$1,159

CAGR 1982-1988

31.7% 22.8% 18.0% 28.9%

25.70/0 Source: Dataquest



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LITHOGRAPHY


Contact/Proximity Projection Aligners Steppers Direct-Write E-Beam X-Ray Automatic Photoresist

Processing Equipment

Total N/A = Not Available

1982 1988

$ 2 6 29 60 28

0 28

$171

$ 4 25

423 67

2 120

$641

CAGR 1982-1988

(26.8%) (2.4%) 38.6% 15.7%

N/A

27.5%


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ETCH AND CLEAN

Wet Process Dry Strip Dry Etch

Total


1982

$27 10 42

$76

1988

$ 9 2 59

245

$396

CAGR 1982-1988

22.70/0 34.5% 34.2%

31.70/0 Source: Dataquest



DEPOSITION ^


1982 1988

Chemical Vapor Deposition $43 $190 Physical Vapor Deposition 46 126 Silicon Epitaxy 32 98

Total $121 $414

DIFFUSION AND RTP


1982 1988

Diffusion $47 $122 Rapid Thermal Processing 1 7

Total $48 $129

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CAGR 1982-1988

28.2% 18.3% 20.6%


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CAGR 1982-1988

18.1% 38.4%




ION IMPLANTATION


1982

Medium Current $22 High Current 26 High Voltage < 1

Total N/A = Not Applicable

$48

1988

$59 161 <1

$220

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CAGR 1982-1988

17.9% 39.4%

N/A

28.9%

Source: Dataquest

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JAPANESE WAFER FAB PLANTS BY REGION

Sotme: Oatifuest



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SUMMARY

Will continue to increase Japanese capital spending

Will expand Japanese market shares for semiconductor equipment worldwide

Will establish new fab lines worldwide



Dataoyest n n a company of MMMM TheDun&BradstreetCorporation

may 24 the dunfey hotel san mateo,...

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