matt masek nws meteorologist, wfo north platte, ne may 25, 2011
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Summer 2011A Climate Outlook
Warm or ColdWet or Dry
Matt MasekNWS Meteorologist, WFO North Platte , NE
May 25, 2011
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Today’s OutlineRevisit last year (2010)What has happened this spring (2011)Summer Outlook (2011)
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North Platte Spring/Summer 2010 (2011)
North Platte Spring (March, April, May)
North Platte Summer (June, July, August)
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North Platte Spring/Summer 2010 (2011)
MAY MAY
2010 2011
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North Platte Spring/Summer 2010 (2011)
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Valentine Spring/Summer 2010 (2011)
Valentine Spring (March, April, May)Valentine Summer (June, July, August)
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ValentineSpring/Summer 2010 (2011)
MAY MAY
2010 2011
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ValentineSpring/Summer 2010 (2011)
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ENSOEl Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)3 Phases – Based on a section of the southern
Pacific Ocean (region Niño 3.4) temperature, departure from normal.ENSO Warm (3 months +0.5°C) - El NiñoENSO NeutralENSO Cool (3 months -0.5°C) - La Niña
Effects on the United StatesMost prevalent in Winter MonthsHurricane Season
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Winter Months (Dec – Feb)
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ENSO 2010Summer 2010 Phase
Weakening El Niño
Winter 2010-11 Phase Moderate-strong
La NiñaSummer 2011 Phase
Weakening La Niña
2010 to 2011 Opposites
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U.S. Drought Monitor
After an El Nino Winter
After an La Niña Winter
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So what is expected for the rest of the Spring and
Summer of 2011?
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CPC OutlooksCPC – Climate Prediction Center6 to 10 day outlook & 8 to 14 day outlooks are
produced daily (Above Normal, Normal, Below Normal)
One month outlook and 3 month outlooks issued on the third Thursday of the month (Tercile Forecast)
One month outlook updated on the last day of the month (Tercile Forecast)
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6 to 10 Day OutlookMay 30 – June 3
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8 to 14 Day OutlookJune 1 – June 7
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CPC Long Range OutlooksTercile Forecast (What?)3 Categories (both Temperature & Precipitation)
Above Normal (33.3%)Normal (33.4%)Below Normal (33.3%)
No shading is NOT normal expectedNo shading is not enough skill to predict one
way or the other (Labeled EC or Equal Chance for any of the three categories to happen)
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Summer OutlookJune
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Summer OutlookJune – July – August
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Why?June – Weakening La Niña, Atmosphere still
acting like La Niña - more active northern storm track
JJA – ENSO becoming neutral, transition period difficult to predict, when La Niña pattern disappears
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??Potential??Heat “bubble” across southwestern U.S. and
southern plains could develop and become dominating weather pattern for western and central Nebraska
More likely over southwest NebraskaIf “heat ridge” does develop, above normal
temperatures and dry will become more widespread, possible drought?
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***www.weather.gov/northplatte***
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Summer 2011 No Clear Signs
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Thank YouQuestions ???