master thesis nr. 315 a simulation platform for power trading
DESCRIPTION
MASTER THESIS Nr. 315 A SIMULATION PLATFORM FOR POWER TRADING. Jurica Babić. Zagreb, July 2012. Outline. Background and motivation Power Trading Agent Competition (Power TAC) CrocodileAgent 2012. Background and Motivation Transition from traditional to smart grids. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Department of Telecommunications
MASTER THESIS Nr. 315
A SIMULATION PLATFORM FOR POWER TRADING
Jurica Babić
Zagreb, July 2012
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Department of Telecommunications
Outline
¨ Background and motivation¨ Power Trading Agent Competition (Power TAC)¨ CrocodileAgent 2012
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Department of Telecommunications
Background and MotivationTransition from traditional to smart grids
¨ Some limitations of traditional power grids: centralized production energy losses not able to cope with intermittent and decentralized renewables
(e.g., wind turbines and solar panels) ¨ Smart grids:
ICT layer - advanced grid management new market opportunities
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Department of Telecommunications
1. market design needed
Motivation and background (2)Smart grid as an enabler of market applications
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Traditional grids
Smart grids
2. risk-free environment for testing needed
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Department of Telecommunications
Power Trading Agent Competition (Power TAC)Introduction
¨ Power market simulator¨ International project (6 universities)¨ Purpose – test market designs for smart grids¨ Combines market agents and the element of competition¨ Software agent in a role of self-interested broker:
buys and sells energy for customers intention of earning a profit minimizes energy imbalance
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Department of Telecommunications
Distribution utility – owns/operates local grid
(regulated monopoly)
Large Energy Suppliers
Retail CustomersProducers, Consumers, Prosumers
Power TAC
Brokersbuild portfolios,buy and sell power
Tariff Market
Sim
ulati
on e
nviro
men
tPa
rtici
pant
s
Balancing
MarketWholesale Market
Power TACGame scenario
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CrocodileAgent 2012
Visualizer
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Department of Telecommunications
CrocodileAgent 2012Overview
¨ A software agent for power trading in Power TAC¨ Emphasis was placed on:
customer market (i.e., tariff market) activities wholesale market activities forecasting using Holt-Winters method
¨ Modular design¨ Main advantage is its active tariff offering adjustments
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Department of Telecommunications
CrocodileAgent 2012Tracks customers energy usage patterns
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No periodicity – WindmillCoOpWeekly periodicity – OfficeComplex
Daily periodicity – CentervilleHomes
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Department of Telecommunications
CrocodileAgent 2012Holt-Winters: customers energy usage forecasting
¨ = Holt-Winters (trained by minimizing NRMSE)¨ = energy usage values¨ = periodicity¨ = number of forecasted values
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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 240
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Usage
Predicted usage
TAC hours
Ener
gy u
sage
(MW
h)OfficeComplex: actual vs predicted values
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Department of Telecommunications
CrocodileAgent 2012Activities in the customer market
¨ Chooses and applies an appropriate tariff model: fixed price multi-rate flate rate (with periodic payment*) special tariffs
¨ Evaluates existing tariffs: deriving tariff utility replacing low-rated tariffs with new ones
* amount of money each of the subscribed customers pay in each TAC hour to the broker
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Department of Telecommunications
CrocodileAgent 2012Wholesale market in Power TAC: day-ahead market
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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132333435363738394041424344454647480
10
20
30
40
50
TAC hours
Pric
e [€
]
Hour-ahead display of market clearings
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Department of Telecommunications
CrocodileAgent 2012Activities in the wholesale market (2)
¨ = past wholesale clearing prices¨ bidding strategy: higher prices for closing markets
Energy usage forecast + wholesale price forecast + bidding strategy = wholesale order
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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 2420
30
40
50
60
Clearing price
Predicted clearing price
Pric
e [€
]
TAC hours
Wholesale prices: actual vs predicted values
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Department of Telecommunications
CrocodileAgent 2012Improving competition design
¨ CrocodileAgent 2012 has identified two main drawbacks in the current game design: infinite periodic payment
customers are ignorant toperiodic payment
PAC-MAN syndrome frequent spawn of similar
tariffs yields to a highermarket share
¨ more rounds in a yearly cycle of Power TAC needed13 of 14
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Department of Telecommunications
Conclusion and Future Work
¨ Power TAC is a promising simulator for the evaluation of market design ideas
¨ CrocodileAgent design focus: customer and wholesale market activities
¨ Holt-Winters method for forecasting¨ Proposal: more rounds of Power TAC ¨ Future Work: more sophisticated portfolio and wholesale m.
management
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