master plan update 17 revised final, 04102014

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Master Plan Update 17 Enrollment-based analysis of construction needs (revised)

April 10, 2014

A new enrollment forecast (Jan. 14, 2014) means that the Cleveland Metropolitan School District must make a 36 percent cut in its

state-funded Facilities Master Plan (June 21, 2010) for remaining K-8 construction but can expand its high school plans. Page 4

The state, which pays for 68 percent of most CMSD construction, requires as a condition of co-funding that the District’s Master

Plan conform to the latest enrollment forecast for the school year in which construction is expected to be completed, now 2018-19.

Two of the K-8 schools (800 total students) in the current, 2010 Plan have been closed, but the District still must cut school space

for 3,006 more K-8 students. The District may add space for 801 high school students, plus 140 slots deleted from the new John

Marshall High, for a total of 941. Page 5

The BAC’s enrollment-based analysis of each neighborhood’s needs has identified potential cuts of 2,700 in K-8 student capacity.

The BAC analysis indicates that remaining K-8 construction planned per the Master Plan of 2010 cannot be cut enough to meet

the co-funding target while still fulfilling every neighborhood’s need for new or fully renovated school space, meaning that the

District would have to spend unmatched local tax dollars to make up the difference.

The analysis of neighborhood-by-neighborhood K-8 capacity need is aimed not only at meeting the state’s co-funding maximum

but also at avoiding waste of construction and maintenance tax dollars from building more than a neighborhood needs.

The BAC used the Master Plan of 2010 as the basis for suggested changes. Even though that Plan was never approved by the

Board of Education, it is the document currently governing the CMSD construction program. Page 6

Cuts suggested by the BAC analysis are insufficient because 23 percent of the K-8 student capacity built so far is technically

unused, yet that capacity still counts toward the district-wide co-funding limit set by the new enrollment forecast. Page 7

The primary cause of unused capacity is enrollment decline caused by rapid population loss and charter school growth that

outpaced enrollment forecasts and adjustments by planners. Pages 8-10

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To more quickly correct miscalculations and react to unforeseen demographic changes, thereby minimizing construction of K-8

space that will not be used as intended, the state’s occasional enrollment forecasts should be supplemented by annual assessments

of whether actual enrollment is following the forecast. Page 10

Analysis of each neighborhood’s enrollment trend is important for properly focusing construction dollars, because the trends vary

markedly across the District. Page 11

BAC analysis / suggestions summary for K-8 schools

2019 estimated

enrollment range

Capacity provided

by 2010 Master Plan

Excess / (shortage) of capacity

provided by 2010 Plan

Suggested changes to capacity

provided by 2010 Plan

Collinwood 1970-2009 1783 (187-226) none

East 2363-2366 3895 1529-1532 cut 900

East Tech 1533-1575 1705 130-172 cut 140

Glenville 505-542 2015 1473-1510 cut 450

Rhodes 16541677 1770 93-116 none

Adams 1089-1160 2370 1210-1281 cut 350

Kennedy 904-910 900 (4-10) none

Marshall 4850-4965 5671 706-821 cut 860

Lincoln-West * 4092-4902 4043 (49) add 350

South 1707-1745 2020 275-313 cut 350

Total suggested changes cut 2700 *Lincoln-West recommendation accounts for specialized program at Thomas Jefferson not

available to general student population, resulting in unused capacity in excess of 400 slots

The BAC analysis is based on straight-line projection until 2018-19 of the average annual enrollment change since 2008 in each of

10 K-8 neighborhoods and three high school regions as previously defined by the School District. The District is now using a 12-

“cluster” model.

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The BAC analysis of changes needed in the co-funded Master Plan is based primarily on enrollment data because projected

enrollment is the determinant of the state’s Master Plan co-funding maximums. School enrollment data and trends show where

parents have chosen to send their children to school, thereby encompassing many other variables, including geographic

accessibility, safety, academic offerings, competition from charter schools, etc. Page 12

The task of reducing the co-funded Master Plan is so difficult because there are fewer places left to cut. Only 19 K-8s are left to

build in the current Master Plan, and 13 of those are in just three neighborhoods – Marshall, Rhodes and Lincoln-West -- where

enrollment has declined by a relatively modest 16% to 21% since 2008. Page 13

After deciding which schools will be replaced or renovated with state co-funding, what is to be done with the numerous existing

schools that are not part of the co-funded Master Plan? The District needs a larger, unofficial Master Plan for what to do with these

schools and any additional schools it deems necessary – and how to pay for it. Page 13

Detailed analysis and charts for 10 K-8 neighborhoods. Pages 14-24

The state’s new enrollment forecast provides for 9,035 high school students. That would allow the District to add 941 slots to its

remaining 2010 Plan, which calls for a new West Side High for 600 students and a new Glenville High for 912 students. However,

the BAC’s analysis identifies a need to add about 1,350 to 2,150 new or fully renovated high school slots to the 2010 Plan. Page

25

The state’s enrollment forecasts, which set the co-funding limit, have consistently underestimated high school enrollment. Page 25

Whatever options are chosen for using the co-funded high school space, the District faces decisions on what to do with the

numerous high schools that inevitably will be left out of the new Master Plan. Essentially, should they be minimally maintained

and eventually closed, or should they be substantially or fully renovated or even replaced using only local tax dollars? Page 25

Detailed analysis and charts for three high school regions. Pages 26-28

Community participation is vitally important for a successful outcome of the Master Plan revision process, which will shape the

final stages of the school construction and renovation program and determine how much more money the District will need to ask

voters to approve. Page 29

The Master Plans of 2008 and 2010. Pages 30-31

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New enrollment forecast

The Cleveland Metropolitan School District’s construction program is guided by a Master Plan designed by the District with

the Ohio Facilities Construction Commission, which pays for 68 percent of most Cleveland school construction costs.

Bond Accountability Commission reports on the Master

Plan have long been based on the idea that the construction

roadmap should be based on probable enrollment – that is, to

avoid wasting the public’s money, the District should not build

or renovate more school space than will be needed to

accommodate the number of students it will have when the

construction program concludes.

As a matter of policy, the OFCC agrees. That is why it

has commissioned and released a consultant’s new forecast of

how many students the District will have in 2018-19, which for

now is the nominal year in which the construction program will

end. That forecast, one of a series dating back to 2002, predicts

that the District will have 32,443 students in 2018-19.

However, the District’s current Master Plan, a “draft”

devised in 2010 to conform to a larger 2009 forecast, would

provide school space for 35,639 students. Therefore, the OFCC

will now require a reduction of 3,196 in the Master Plan’s

student capacity as a condition for co-funding the remainder of

the District’s program, now in Segments 5 and 6 of 10 planned

segments. (Construction would conclude with Segment 9;

Segment 10 consists entirely of demolitions.)

Reduction of co-funded K-8 building plan

Further, the OFCC subdivides its co-funding allotment

according to the number of students forecasted for grades K-8

and the number for grades 9-12. The latest forecast predicts

more high school students than did the projection on which the

2010 Master Plan was based, but considerably fewer K-8

students.

Available co-funded construction space

under enrollment forecast for 2018-19

Built or under way, Segments 1-5

K-8 students high school

students total

students

Segment 1 2437 2967 5404

Segment 2 3506 1005 4511

Segment 3 4101 0 4101

Segment 4 4326 0 4326

Segment 5 2251 2610 4861

Totals 16621 6582 23203

OFCC consultant's draft forecast for 2018-19 23408 9035 32443

Available unbuilt co-funded space 6787 2453 9240

Currently planned co-funded space

Master Plan of 2010 * 9793 1512 11305

Changes from 2010 Master Plan Required * cut 3006 cut 2065

Allowed add 941

* after cutting closed Giddings, deSauze K-8s

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and the number for grades 9-12. The latest forecast predicts more high school students than did the projection on which the 2010

Master Plan was based, but considerably fewer K-8 students.

The upshot is that the District will have to reduce its 2010 building plan by the school space to accommodate about 3,806 K-8

students, about 36 percent of the remaining K-8 construction planned under the Master Plan of 2010. However, two of the schools in

that Plan have been closed, presumably eliminating planned construction for a total of 800 students, which leaves the District with the

task of reducing the Plan by space for 3,006 K-8 students. That is the equivalent of six to seven schools at the typical size,

For high schools, the new enrollment forecast permits the District to expand on the 2010 Plan by 941 students. This would be

in addition to the capacity of 1,512 currently planned for a West Side High (600 students) and Glenville High (912), which could be

amended as well.

Elimination of schools from the Master Plan or reducing the planned size of schools in the co-funded Plan does not mean that

the District cannot build that capacity into the system; it simply means that the state won’t help pay for it. The District may build

whatever else it decides it can afford on its own. (This is likely to be the case with spending on high schools, discussed later in this

report, and probably should be the case with K-8s as well to avoid cutting too much in a few neighborhoods that need the space.)

Also, it should be noted that although this report uses the Master Plan of 2010 as the basis of comparison for what the next

plan should look like, the District may, if it desires, start from a blank slate in determining which schools it wants to include in future

co-funded segments – as long as the total space built or fully renovated stays within the “Available unbuilt co-funded space” in the

chart above.

Goal is to avoid waste

Last March, the BAC’s independent enrollment-based analysis of each neighborhood’s school construction needs suggested

cuts which, when combined with the two school closings by CMSD, would reduce the Master Plan’s K-8 capacity by about 2,850 K-8

students. Now, equipped with an additional year of District enrollment data, the BAC has conducted a new analysis to see where

changes should be made, raising the previous net total K-8 cuts to 3,500, which is 306 short of the deletions needed to meet the

OFCC’s co-funding limit. (See summary, Page 2; neighborhood-by-neighborhood details, Pages 14-24)

The point is not simply to conform to the OFCC’s forecast, although that is required. Rather, the goal in comparing the Master

Plan with the indications of enrollment trends is to avoid waste of taxpayer-financed bond sale proceeds that were authorized by voter

approval of Issue 14 in May 2001 and those that may be authorized in future ballot issues.

Construction of a typical co-funded elementary school now costs $5 million to $6 million in bond-issue money, on which

taxpayers pay off principal and interest for about 20 years. Therefore, building a new school too large or where it is not needed is very

wasteful, especially because taxpayers also will pay for maintenance, security, heating and cooling at that building for decades.

It is therefore very important that construction be based on realistic, enrollment-based assessment of needs rather than

expedience or wishful thinking.

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Master Plan of 2010

The BAC analysis suggests changes to adapt the Master Plan of 2010 to the state’s new enrollment projections while meeting

the needs of 10 neighborhoods as previously designated by the District. Downtown, which previously did not have an elementary

school but does now, is not included in the analysis.

The District Administration has challenged the BAC’s use of the 2010 Plan as the analytical basis on grounds that the 2010

revision, unlike the Master Plan of 2008, was not approved by the Board of Education or by the Ohio School Facilities Commission.

While that is true, no formal approvals were required. What was required as a matter of OSFC policy was that, due to issuance of a

new enrollment forecast in 2009, the Master Plan of 2008 had to be markedly reduced before the state would enter a Project

Agreement with CMSD for Segment 6 of the construction program. The required revision was done by the CMSD and OSFC staffs.

The Segment 6 Project Agreement, approved by the Board in late 2010 and by the OSFC in early 2011, shows that the Master

Plan of 2010, not the formally approved Master Plan of 2008, was the guiding document. (See both Master Plans, Pages 30-31 )

SEGMENT 6 2008 Master Plan Enroll 2010 Master Plan Enroll Project Agreement Enroll

A.G. Bell, new K-8 350 Buckeye-Woodland, new PK-8 450 Buckeye-Woodland, new PK-8 450

Case, renovate K-8 375 Case, new PK-8 450 Case, new PK-8 450

Giddings, new K-8 450 Empire (Glenville), new PK-8 450 Empire (Glenville), new PK-8 450

Gracemount, new K-8 450 A.B. Hart, demo 0 A.B. Hart, demo 0

Paul Revere, new K-8 450 Alexander Hamilton, demo 0 Alexander Hamilton, demo 0

A.J. Rickoff (old), demo 0 A.J. Rickoff (old), demo 0

Audubon, demo 0 Audubon, demo 0

Brooklawn, demo 0

Empire Computech, demo 0 Empire Computech, demo 0

Gracemount, demo 0 Gracemount, demo 0

Henry W. Longfellow, demo 0 Henry W. Longfellow, demo 0

Jesse Owens, demo 0 Jesse Owens, demo 0

John W. Raper, demo 0 John W. Raper, demo 0

Joseph Landis, demo 0 Joseph Landis, demo 0

Louis Pasteur, demo 0 Louis Pasteur, demo 0

Mt. Auburn, demo 0 Mount Auburn, demo 0 Mount Auburn, demo 0

Robert Fulton,demo 0 Robert Fulton,demo 0

Stephen E. Howe, demo 0 Stephen E. Howe, demo 0

Total 2075 1350 1350

2010 Plan changes to 2008 Master Plan

Cut 14 K-8 schools

Added three K-8

schools

Changed capacities of

schools

Cut one high school

Reduced district-wide

K-12 capacity of co-

funded new and fully

renovated schools

from 40,743 students

to 35,639

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Planning in an era of decline

As noted, the BAC analysis of neighborhood needs falls 306 K-8 slots short of the Master Plan cuts needed to meet the state’s

new co-funding limit. How could we apply an unforgiving data-based analysis to the remaining construction plan, leaving only the

schools that are strictly justified by enrollment statistics, and still fail to achieve the total reductions that are needed to qualify for full

OFCC co-funding?

Rather, the primary culprits.

Rather, the primary culprits.

Rather, the primary culprits have been rapid population loss and growth of charter schools. The state’s enrollment forecasts did

not accurately predict the steep enrollment declines experienced by the District, and planners did not adequately adjust for the steeply

declining enrollment trends, especially in some neighborhoods.

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

As-built

student

capacity

Enrolled

now

Segment 5

Segment 4

Segment 3

Segment 2

Segment 1

The answer is simple. Only 77

percent of the K-8 school space built

or renovated in Segments 1-5 is being

occupied by students. The remaining

23 percent, though unused, still

counts toward the District’s

maximum co-funded allotment as

determined by the latest enrollment

forecast.

As we have warned numerous

times, beginning with Master Plan

Update 7 in June 2008, if only a finite

amount of co-funded space is

available district-wide, too much

capacity in one neighborhood can

only mean that another neighborhood

will be underserved by state-matched

construction dollars.

The under-use of new or fully

renovated schools is not simply a

matter of over-building, although

that certainly occurred in some cases.

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Population loss, ‘community schools.’ When the construction program began in 2002, the state authorized construction or

renovation of 111 schools to accommodate 72,000 students. Since then, Cleveland’s population has fallen about 18 percent and

“community schools” (public charter/non-public schools), have grown to enroll 18,575 of the District’s children.

Sixteen of the 33 schools

built in Segments 1-5 are in the

five neighborhoods hit hardest by

enrollment loss. The schools built

in Segment 2 are particularly

underutilized – by 29 percent –

led by Franklin D. Roosevelt,

where enrollment has never been

more than half of its capacity of

1,115.

Planning outpaced by

events. Essentially, planners did

not reduce building plans enough

to account for the magnitude and

speed of demographic changes

that were occurring, especially in

neighborhoods that have

experienced steep population loss.

This was due in part to

reliance on forecasts by the state’s

consultant that repeatedly

underestimated the size and pace

of the changes and that have been

issued only every two or three

years.

For example, in August

2001, when the initial Master Plan

was being devised, the state’s

consultant predicted that the

District would have 67,315

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students in the 2010-11 academic year. In April 2004, as Segment 2 was getting under way, the state’s consultant reduced that

estimate to 60,872 students. In fact, CMSD enrollment turned out to be 45,060 in 2010-11.

Meanwhile, the District built the four K-8 schools of Segment 1. It removed six schools from the Segment 2 plan, moving

them to later segments or putting them “on hold.” However, four of those six were in the Rhodes, Marshall or Lincoln-West

neighborhoods, where population decline has been more gradual, and the plan to renovate Franklin D. Roosevelt for 1,115 in the

Glenville neighborhood was not changed.

It wasn’t until March 2006, as Segment 3 was being started, that the state’s consultant radically down-sized its CMSD

enrollment projections, estimating that the 2010-11 district-wide total would be 45,291.

By then, the consultant was also projecting enrollment further into the future, estimating that enrollment in 2015-16, when the

final segment was to have been completed, would be 40,743. The consultant now estimates the enrollment that year at 35,987.

(Source: FutureThink Draft Report for Ohio Facilities Construction Commission (Jan. 14, 2014)

The District Administration also undertook a major overhaul of the Segment 4 plan, replacing most of the schools with others

from later segments. One of the projects chosen to proceed was Thomas Jefferson, originally planned in 2002 as a “relief” school to

relieve overcrowding on the West Side. The original Jefferson had been closed for years, and by the time of Segment 4, overcrowding

was no longer an issue. Still, the school was built for 785 students. Its enrollment now is 364. The current utilization rate of Segment

4 schools is 78 percent.

Segments 3, 4 altered. After the

consultant’s 2006 forecast, the District

moved six schools from its Segment 3

plan or put them “on hold.” It also

reduced the planned size of some

Segment 3 schools. However, only half

of those postponed or reduced schools

were in the most rapidly declining

neighborhoods, and the District then

added a new Willson, which had been in

Segment 2, for 574 students in the East

neighborhood. Today, Willson has only

344 students; it has not had more than

about 400 since it opened.

Overall, however, the Segment 3

reductions paid off. Current utilization of

the Segment 3 space is 90 percent.

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Master Plan of 2008. When the Master Plan of 2008 was approved, based on the state’s 2006 forecast, the District planned to

build 37 elementary schools in Segments 5-10. Those existing schools had a combined enrollment of 17,249 at the time, and they were

planned to accommodate 17,070. Had the District’s enrollment been stable, this plan would have worked well. But District enrollment

was not stable; it was falling, and the foreclosure crisis – with its cycle of eviction, neglect, vandalism, dereliction and demolition –

was exploding. Since 2008, enrollment decline has ranged from 13.6 percent to 61.4 percent among the 10 neighborhoods.

The Master Plan of 2008 met the co-funding limits of the state’s enrollment forecast, but that forecast was two years old. Just a

year later, in 2009, a new enrollment forecast caused the heavy cuts found in the Master Plan of 2010.

Segment 5. Construction of Segment 5 schools was authorized in November 2008 by the Board of Education, and architecture

contracts were awarded. However, construction contracts were not awarded until 2012, delayed by deliberations over the District’s

Academic Transformation Plan. In the meantime, as enrollment continued to fall, two K-8 schools were dropped from Segment 5.

Still, the utilization rate of Segment 5’s five remaining K-8 schools, four of which just opened this school year, is only about

68 percent.

During the period between Segment approval and the award of construction contracts, enrollment fell sharply at Orchard and

Dunbar in the Lincoln-West neighborhood, from a combined 908 in 2008 to 551 in 2012, but capacities for the schools were not

adjusted and they were built as planned – for a combined 900 students. They have 571 today.

The same holds true for the Marshall neighborhood’s Almira: It had 471 students in 2008, but only 311 when construction

contracts were awarded in 2012 but it was built as planned for 450 students. It has 324 today.

It is a similar story for Miles in the Adams neighborhood. It had 416 students when it was planned in 2008 and 346 when

construction contracts were awarded in 2012; yet it was built as planned, for 450 students. It has 263 now.

Learning from the past

Reassess early, often. The conclusions from this part of the story are that the state’s occasional enrollment forecasts should be

supplemented by annual assessments of whether actual enrollment is following the forecast in order to more quickly correct

miscalculations and react to unforeseen demographic changes.

Further, in a far-flung district such as Cleveland’s, district-wide forecasts and resulting cuts in co-funded capacity are

adequate for protecting the state’s monetary interests but are insufficient for informing the District’s decisions about where to build

specific schools and how large to build them. So before planning each segment, the District should examine neighborhood enrollment

patterns with an eye to how they can inform estimates of future needs. Building plans should be adjusted accordingly. And when a

long delay occurs after planning a segment, the process should be repeated before construction contracts are awarded.

The experiences outlined above lie at the heart of the methodology chosen for the BAC’s analysis of school needs. The goal is

to focus scarce resources – in this case tax proceeds and the state’s co-funding allotment – where they are needed the most, thereby

stopping or minimizing construction of K-8 space that will not be used as intended.

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Analysis by neighborhood. So, the analysis calculates the average annual rate of decline in each neighborhood’s enrollment

since 2008 and extends that rate of decline through the next five years – to the nominal build-out year of 2018-19.

This leads to a calculation of what a given neighborhood’s enrollment is likely to be that year. The probable enrollment is then

compared with the space that would be provided by the Master Plan of 2010. If the Plan would provide more space than needed, then

cuts are suggested. If the Plan would provide less space than needed, additions are suggested.

The analysis looks at each neighborhood individually, rather than the district as a whole. The reason is that enrollment trends

vary by neighborhood.

and (subject to the OFCC minimum size of 350 students) how large they should be.

The BAC’s reports have always used and advocated a neighborhood-by-neighborhood approach to analyzing school needs

based on enrollment trends. Here’s why: The OFCC’s consultant’s latest PreK-8 forecast for the build-out-year is 16.18 percent lower

than the comparable figure from its 2009 study (on which the 2010 Master Plan was based). If it were physically possible (which it is

Neighborhood enrollment % change 2008-14

-70.00%

-60.00%

-50.00%

-40.00%

-30.00%

-20.00%

-10.00%

0.00%

Collinwood

East

East Tech

Glenville

Rhodes

Adams

Kennedy

Marshall

Lincoln-West

South

The OFCC enrollment

forecasts are for the District as a

whole; they do not specify what

enrollment is expected to be in

specific neighborhoods within

Cleveland. And the OFCC

technically does not care where

within Cleveland the District

plans to build as long as the new

schools’ aggregate capacity does

not exceed the district-wide

enrollment forecast.

So it is possible to meet a

co-funding target for a particular

Master Plan revision while

building too much capacity in

some neighborhoods while

seriously underserving others.

It is up to the District to decide

where its new buildings should be

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not), one could mathematically reach the new OFCC capacity limitation by simply reducing the planned construction in each

neighborhood by 16.18 percent.

The next step for K-8 schools

The BAC analysis of changes needed in the co-funded Master Plan is based primarily on enrollment data because projected

enrollment is the determinant of the state’s Master Plan co-funding maximums. School enrollment data and trends show where parents

But such an approach

clearly would be foolish if one

considers, for example, that

enrollment has declined by 41

percent over the last 16 years in the

James Rhodes neighborhood but by

72 percent in the John Adams

neighborhood. Shorter-term data –

from January 2008 to January 2014

-- show similar variation: Following

up on the previous example, the

Rhodes neighborhood K-8

enrollment has declined 20.56

percent during that time, while the

comparable Adams percentage is

40.38

Enrollment trends, like other

demographics, have varied greatly

among the School District’s

neighborhoods over the years, and

there is no basis for presuming that

they will behave identically

between now and 2018-19. This

analysis presumes that the recent

trend of each neighborhood will

continue.

13

have chosen to send their children to school, thereby encompassing many other variables, including geographic accessibility, safety,

academic offerings, competition from charter schools, etc.

The BAC found that the East, Glenville, Adams, and South neighborhoods currently are planned for more new or fully

renovated space than they need now, let alone five years into the future, and that Marshall is planned for about what it needs now, not

in 2019, despite a recent trend of significant enrollment loss.

The task of reducing the co-funded Master Plan is so difficult because there are fewer places left to cut. Only 19 K-8s are left

to build in the current Master Plan, and 13 of those are in just three neighborhoods – Marshall, Rhodes and Lincoln-West -- where

enrollment has declined by a relatively modest 16% to 21% since 2008.

Vision for accessibility, cost control. Whether or not the School District follows the BAC’s suggestions for how to trim the

co-funded Master Plan, the Plan must be cut. Those decisions need to be made in the context of a larger vision of how to maintain or

improve accessibility while controlling costs.

After deciding which schools will be replaced or renovated with state co-funding, what is to be done with the numerous

existing schools that are not part of the co-funded Master Plan? The District needs a larger, unofficial Master Plan for what to do with

these schools and how to pay for it. Some could be replaced or renovated – partially or completely – using only local tax dollars. Some

could be simply maintained, if the District has a way to pay for it. Some could be closed and sold or demolished with state co-funding.

Geographic accessibility – safe walking routes, reasonable walking distances – is generally not addressed by the BAC analysis.

In areas where population density has decreased sharply, transportation solutions may provide the most economical way to make use

of already built new-school capacity while minimizing capital and operational spending on more space – co-funded or not – that is or

will be under-used.

Charter schools. Availability of high-performing charter schools could help the District decide whether to spend capital

money on nearby CMSD schools. The BAC analysis did not consider availability of charter schools because the OFCC-funded Master

Plan does not include them and because charters, unlike the School District, are not required to remain in operation.

Multi-neighborhood schools. The BAC’s analysis treats K-8 schools that have multi-neighborhood appeal, chiefly the boys

and girls academies, as if they draw only from the academic neighborhood in which they are located. To the extent that they draw

from other neighborhoods, the BAC’s suggestions should be regarded with that in mind. Currently, only one of the academies, Warner

in the South neighborhood, is a Master Plan school. If Warner drew all of its students from outside South, it would not change the

analysis’ suggestion for that neighborhood.

Growth areas. Finally, the vision for accessibility must include consideration of areas where population density has increased

or is planned to increase because of housing development, including downtown, University Circle/Little Italy, Hough, Ohio City,

Detroit-Shoreway. Planners need to assess how many of the residents of new developments are likely to have children that would

attend a District school and whether the District has or could have schools to address such demand. (In the case of downtown, there is

already proven demand for a high-quality CMSD elementary school – Campus International, currently in Cleveland State University’s

Cole Center.) Then the question becomes whether to spend tax dollars in anticipation of demand or to wait for demand to develop.

14

By the numbers: Plan vs. need

Methodology. This report therefore uses the average annual change in each neighborhood’s PreK-8 enrollment over the last

six years to make a straight-line calculation of what the enrollment will likely be in the nominal build-out year of 2018-19. It then

compares those estimates with the 2010 Master Plan’s provisions to see where the building plan for each of the 10 neighborhoods (as

formerly defined by the District) should be reduced or increased. The same technique has been applied to the District’s three high

school regions, though the results may be less instructive due to the districts’ size and by the city-wide draw of specialty schools.

How to read the charts:

Third column – The Master Plan for each school. For example, if a school is to be demolished in Segment 6, the chart says D-6. If it is to

be built new, it says N-6, or renovated, R-6. If it is not to be replaced or demolished, it says Keep.

Fourth-16th

columns – The PreK-8 enrollment of each school, per CMSD, followed by the percentage change in each school’s enrollment

over the specified period.

17th

column – The capacity of a new or fully renovated school specified in the Master Plan.

Last column—The Master Plan capacity as a percentage of the current enrollment. The key percentage is in the row PreK-8 Totals. A

percentage over 100 indicates that the Master Plan provides for more space than the current enrollment requires. If a particular school is listed for

zero capacity, it is not planned for renovation or replacement.

Ave. annual survival factor: The average rate by which one year’s neighborhood enrollment has survived to the next year, based on

CMSD data from 2008-2014.

Projected enrollment in 2018-19: The number produced by multiplying the February 2014 enrollment by the average annual survival

factor for each of the five following years.

Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19: The difference between the neighborhood Master Plan capacity and the projected

enrollment. A (negative) number indicates that the Master Plan would not provide enough space for the specified number of expected students; a

positive number indicates that the Master Plan would provide space for the specified number of students that are not expected to exist.

Ave. annual survival factor, adjusted: The average rate by which one year’s neighborhood enrollment has survived to the next year,

based on CMSD data from 2008-2014, except that the year of least change and the year of most change are omitted.

Projected enrollment, adjusted: The number produced by multiplying the February 2014 enrollment by the adjusted average annual

survival factor for each of the five following years.

Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19, adjusted: The difference between the neighborhood Master Plan capacity and the

adjusted projected enrollment. A (negative) number indicates that the Master Plan would not provide enough space for the specified number of

expected students; a positive number indicates that the Master Plan would provide excess space.

15

Collinwood PreK-8 Address

2010

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East Clark ES 885 East 146th St N-3 277 249 230 394 409 336 331 -10% -8% 71% 4% -18% -1% 450 136%

Euclid Park 17914 Euclid Ave. N-4 277 249 230 334 357 343 372 -10% -8% 45% 7% -4% 8% 351 94%

H. Gibbons 1401 Larchmont Rd N-2 267 269 251 260 313 313 281 1% -7% 4% 20% 0% -10% 351 125%

H. Longfellow 650 East 140th St. D-6 347 250 240 0 0 0 0 -28% -4% -100% NA NA NA 0 NA

Iowa Maple 12510 Maple Ave. D-10 383 329 346 366 423 372 333 -14% 5% 6% 16% -12% -10% 0 0%

Kenneth Clement 14311 Woodworth Keep 125 153 188 187 194 173 180 22% 23% -1% 4% -11% 4% 0 0%

Memorial 410 East 152nd St. N-1 504 513 493 513 506 451 447 2% -4% 4% -1% -11% -1% 631 141%

Oliver H. Perry 18400 Schenely Ave. ??? 389 443 416 417 333 309 273 14% -6% 0% -20% -7% -12% 0 0%

PreK-8 Totals 2569 2455 2394 2471 2535 2297 2217 -4% -2% 3% 3% -9% -3% 1783 80%

Ave. annual survival factor 0.97669

Projected enrollment in 2018-19 1970

Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19 (187)

Ave. annual survival factor, adjusted to remove highest and lowest years 0.98046

Projected enrollment, adjusted, in 2018-19 2009

Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19, adjusted (226)

Collinwood: Likely enrollment is 187 to 226 students more than would be accommodated by the 2010 Master Plan. However,

the minimum school size for co-funding is 350. Therefore, based only on enrollment, no changes to the Master Plan are needed.

However, the neighborhood is divided from east to west by Interstate 90 and a large railroad yard. Taking that into account, the

northeast portion of the neighborhood has no new or fully renovated school in the Master Plan. An option would be to partially

renovate O.H. Perry using only District money not matched by the OFCC. Change from 2010 Master Plan: 0.

16

East

PreK-8 Address

2010

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Alexander G. Bell 11815 Larchmere D-10 392 403 371 0 0 0 0 3% -8% -100% NA NA NA 0 NA

Buckeye-Woodland 9511 Buckeye Rd. N-6 272 270 266 305 276 220 224 -1% -1% 15% -10% -20% 2% 450 201%

Case 4050 Superior Ave. N-6 536 447 369 451 381 396 347 -17% -17% 22% -16% 4% -12% 450 130%

Chas. Orr 9711 Lamont Ave. D-10 191 157 177 173 0 0 0 -18% 13% -2% NA NA NA 0 NA

Daniel Morgan 8912 Morris Court N-2 481 438 380 354 353 313 317 -9% -13% -7% 0% -11% 1% 480 151%

Harvey Rice 2730 East 116th St. N-3 266 235 370 459 477 499 485 -12% 57% 24% 4% 5% -3% 450 93%

John Raper 1601 East 85th St. D-6 468 405 352 0 0 0 0 -13% -13% -100% NA NA NA 0 NA

John D. Rockefeller 5901 Whittier Ave. D-10 250 246 220 0 0 0 0 -2% -11% -100% NA NA NA 0 NA

Margaret Ireland 1800 East 63rd St. D-10 169 171 79 57 0 0 0 1% -54% -28% -100% NA NA 0 NA

Mary Martin 8200 Brookline Ave. R-2 342 416 336 316 479 443 407 22% -19% -6% 52% -8% -8% 490 120%

Mary Bethune 11815 Moulton R-2 361 348 362 388 337 348 338 -4% 4% 7% -13% 3% -3% 500 148%

Sunbeam 11731 Mt.Overlook D-10 244 210 209 256 257 251 261 -14% 0% 22% 0% -2% 4% 0 NA

Wade Park 7600 Wade Park N-3 242 194 388 396 413 379 351 -20% 100% 2% 4% -8% -7% 501 143%

Willson 1126 Ansel Rd. N-3 0 0 0 393 399 380 344 NA NA NA 2% -5% -9% 574 167%

PreK-8 Totals 4214 3940 3879 3548 3372 3229 3074 -7% -2% -9% -5% -4% -5% 3895 127%



Excess / (deficit) Master Plan slots, 2018-19 1529

Ave. annual survival factor, without highest, lowest years 0.94874


Adj. excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots, 2018-19, 1532

East: The 2010 Master Plan would provide space for about 1,530 more students than the neighborhood is likely to have in

2018-19. The neighborhood has only two more schools planned for replacement, Case and Buckeye-Woodland (both Segment 6),

totaling planned capacity of 900. Geographic considerations aside, those two schools are not needed. Alternatives include partial

renovation, without OFCC matching funds, of those schools and/or Sunbeam. Change from 2010 Master Plan: minus 900.

17

East Tech

PreK-8 Address

2010

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Alfred Benesch (Stokes) 5393 Quincy Ave. D-10 0 0 0 0 0 0 383 NA NA NA NA NA NA 0 NA

Anton Grdina 2955 East 71st St. , N-4 547 532 484 366 377 357 341 -3% -9% -24% 3% -5% -4% 540 158%

George W. Carver 2200 E. 55th St. , N-4 426 435 447 346 533 472 373 2% 3% -23% 54% -11% -21% 450 121%

Audubon 3055 MLK, Jr. Dr. D-6 496 443 326 0 0 0 0 -11% -26% -100% NA NA NA 0 NA

Bolton 9803 Quebec Ave. D-10 369 369 336 436 394 318 312 0% -9% 30% -10% -19% -2% 0 NA

Dike (CSA K-5) 2501 East 61st St. ??? 390 396 399 499 417 357 318 2% 1% 25% -16% -14% -11% 0 NA

CSA (6-8) (@ Davis) 2064 Stearns Rd. N-5 0 0 201 189 214 162 171 NA NA NA 13% -24% 6% 225 NA

Giddings * 2250 East 71st St. N-8 328 307 292 284 0 0 0 -6% -5% -3% -100% NA NA 0 NA

Marion Sterling 3033 Central Ave. R-8 538 530 506 533 499 374 366 -1% -5% 5% -6% -25% -2% 490 134%

Carl & Louis Stokes 2225 East 40th St. D-10 550 543 523 586 494 424 0 -1% -4% 12% -16% -14% -100% 0 NA

PreK-8 Totals 3644 3555 3514 3239 2928 2464 2264 -2% -1% -8% -10% -16% -8% 1705 75%

* Giddings is in current Master Plan but was removed from analysis when District closed it.



Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19 172



Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19, adjusted 130

East Tech: The 2010 Master Plan would provide space for about 130 to 172 more students than the neighborhood is likely to

have in 2018-19. The only remaining planned project in the neighborhood is renovation of Marion Sterling for 490 students even

though it has only 366. The obvious solution would be to replace, rather than renovate, Sterling for 350 students or to replace the now-

closed Stokes for 350 and eliminate Sterling. Benesch has received about $1.5 million in repairs and improvements since 2007.

Change from 2010 Master Plan: minus 140.

18

Glenville PreK-8 Address

2010

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Arthur Roth 12523 Woodside

Ave. D-10 343 299 281 304 0 0 0 -13% -6% 8% -100% NA NA 0 NA

Empire 9113 Parmalee D-6 338 282 231 0 0 0 0 -17% -18% -100% NA NA NA 0 NA

Glenville ??? N-6 0 0 0 0 NA NA NA NA NA NA 450 NA

F.D. Roosevelt 800 Linn Dr. R-2 324 360 499 613 552 468 426 11% 39% 23% -10% -15% -9% 1115 262%

Forest Hill Parkway 450 East 112th St. D-5 402 360 259 0 0 0 0 -10% -28% -100% NA NA NA 0 NA

Joseph F. Landis 10118 Hampden D-6 398 360 350 0 0 0 0 -10% -3% -100% NA NA NA 0 NA

Louis Pasteur 815 Linn Dr. D-6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA NA NA NA NA NA 0 NA

Charles Lake 9201 Hillock Ave. D-4 274 213 0 0 0 0 0 -22% -100% NA NA NA NA 0 NA

Michael R. White 1000 East 92nd St. D-10 390 349 322 462 437 380 326 -11% -8% 43% -5% -13% -14% 0 NA

Patrick Henry 11901 Durant Ave. N-3 385 334 334 347 378 371 351 -13% 0% 4% 9% -2% -5% 450 128%

PreK-8 Totals 2854 2557 2276 1726 1367 1219 1103 -10% -11% -24% -21% -11% -10% 2015 183%







Glenville: The 2010 Master Plan would provide space for about 1,473 to 1,510 more students than the neighborhood is likely

to have in 2018-19. Under the Plan, only one school, for 450 students at an unspecified location, is yet to be built (Segment 6).

Geographic considerations aside, that school clearly is not needed. The chief culprit for overcapacity in Glenville is Franklin D.

Roosevelt school, which was renovated in Segment 2 for 1,115 students but has only 426. In addition, Patrick Henry, built new in

Segment 3 for 450 students, has only 351. Transportation solutions for making use of unused space at FDR and Henry would

eliminate any need for another new school in Glenville. Change from 2010 Master Plan: minus 450.

19

Rhodes

PreK-8 Address

2010

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Benjamin Franklin 1905 Spring Rd. D-10 691 678 630 667 634 558 591 -2% -7% 6% -5% -12% 6% 0 NA

Charles A. Mooney * 3213 Montclair Ave. ??? 614 606 563 725 490 505 505 -1% -7% 29% -32% 3% 0% 0 NA

Denison 3799 West 33rd St. N-7 707 712 712 617 634 571 484 1% 0% -13% 3% -10% -15% 720 149%

William C. Bryant 3121 Oak Park Ave. R-7 502 449 424 350 370 389 417 -11% -6% -17% 6% 5% 7% 600 144%

William R. Harper 5515 Ira Ave. N-9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA NA NA NA NA NA 450 NA

Totals 2514 2445 2329 2359 2128 2023 1997 -3% -5% 1% -10% -5% -1% 1770 89%

* Has additional 162 in Facing History New Tech 9-10th Grades



Excess / (deficit) Master Plan slots in 2018-19 116




Rhodes: The 2010 Master Plan would provide space for about 93 to 116 more students than the neighborhood is likely to have

in 2018-19. The relatively small difference means that no changes in the Master Plan are needed to match expected enrollment.

However, the plan for Rhodes includes building a new Denison for 720 students although it has only 484. Given the enrollment trend

and relative isolation of Denison, which is separated from the rest of the neighborhood by the Cleveland Metroparks Zoo and Pearl

Road/West 25th

Street, the Denison plan needs to be cut to 450. The current Plan for the rest of the neighborhood is to eventually

demolish the well-attended Benjamin Franklin (591 students) and Charles Mooney (505 students). The District recently spent more

than $2 million to convert the third floor of Mooney to a New Tech high school program. Under the Plan, those two schools

essentially are to be replaced by a new William R. Harper, currently closed, for 450 students, and a renovated William C. Bryant

(currently 417 students), for 600 students. Does the District really intend to close Mooney and Franklin? If not, then the plans for

Harper and Bryant need to be revisited. Renovation of Franklin or the rest of Mooney would seem to eliminate any need to replace

Harper. Change from 2010 Master Plan: 0.

20

Adams PreK-8 Address

2010

Master

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A.J. Rickoff 3500 East 147th St. N-1 604 572 544 504 540 513 515 -5% -5% -7% 7% -5% 0% 720 140%

Charles Dickens 13013 Corlett Ave. N-4 384 312 313 433 413 369 319 -19% 0% 38% -5% -11% -14% 450 141%

Corlett 13013 Corlett Ave. D-4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA NA NA NA NA NA 0 NA

Miles 11918 Miles Ave. N-5 416 354 339 385 346 281 263 -15% -4% 14% -10% -19% -6% 450 171%

Nathan Hale 3588 MLK, Jr. Dr. N-4 367 333 318 412 435 402 381 -9% -5% 30% 6% -8% -5% 400 105%

Paul Revere 10706 Sandusky N-7 481 420 420 508 476 348 288 -13% 0% 21% -6% -27% -17% 350 122%

Robert Fulton 3291 East 140th St. D-6 316 284 283 0 0 0 0 -10% 0% -100% NA NA NA 0 NA

Woodland Hills 9201 Crane Ave. D-10 394 347 293 348 0 0 0 -12% -16% 19% -100% NA NA 0 NA

PreK-8 Totals 2962 2622 2510 2590 2210 1913 1766 -11% -4% 3% -15% -13% -8% 2370 134%







Adams: The 2010 Master Plan would provide space for about 1,210 to 1,281 more students than the neighborhood is likely to

have in 2018-19. All but one of the schools planned for this neighborhood have already been built. Only Revere, planned for 350 with

a current enrollment of 288, remains. A new Revere is clearly not needed, especially in view of underutilization of the new Charles

Dickens (Segment 4) and new Miles (Segment 5), with a combined capacity of 900 and current enrollment of 582. Change from 2010

Master Plan: minus 350.

21

Kennedy

PreK-8 Address

2010

Master

Plan

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2008

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Adlai Stevenson 18300 Woda Ave. N-4 299 282 279 288 388 438 375 -6% -1% 3% 35% 13% -14% 450 120%

Charles Eliot 15700 Lotus Dr. D-10 326 336 345 466 510 485 416 3% 3% 35% 9% -5% -14% 0 NA

Cranwood 13604 Christine Ave. D-10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA NA NA NA NA NA 0 NA

Emile deSauze * 4747 East 176th St. N-7* 356 319 295 284 0 0 0 -10% -8% -4% -100% NA NA 0 NA

Whit. Young (2-8) 17900 Harvard Ave. D-10 182 165 124 208 184 171 147 -9% -25% 68% -12% -7% -14% 0 NA

Gracemount 16200 Glendale Ave. D-6 504 441 470 0 0 0 0 -13% 7% -100% NA NA NA 0 NA

Robert Jamison 4092 East 146th St. N-4 586 522 463 442 438 417 432 -11% -11% -5% -1% -5% 4% 450 104%

Totals 2253 2065 1976 1688 1520 1511 1370 -8% -4% -15% -10% -1% -9% 900 66%

* deSauze is in current Master Plan but was removed from analysis when District closed it.



Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19 (10)




Kennedy: The 2010 Master Plan would provide space for about 4 to 10 fewer students than the neighborhood is likely to have

in 2018-19. No more new schools are planned or needed for the neighborhood. Change from 2010 Master Plan: 0

22

Marshall PreK-8 Address

2010

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Almira 3380 West 98th St. N-5 471 473 369 379 311 323 324 0% -22% 3% -18% 4% 0% 450 139%

Artemus Ward 4315 West 140th St. N-3 428 449 505 470 508 527 491 5% 12% -7% 8% 4% -7% 450 92%

Brooklawn 11801 Worthington D-6 317 278 235 0 0 0 0 -12% -15% -100% NA NA NA 0 NA

H. Barbara Booker 2121 West 67th St. N-9 531 446 472 454 439 431 381 -16% 6% -4% -3% -2% -12% 450 118%

Clara Westropp 19202 Puritas Ave. N-7 686 616 575 534 458 431 413 -10% -7% -7% -14% -6% -4% 540 131%

D. MacArthur 4401 Valleyside

Rd. Keep 96 165 196 228 271 296 309 72% 19% 16% 19% 9% 4% 0 NA

Garfield 3800 West 140th St. N-3 160 153 387 440 537 541 509 -4% 153% 14% 22% 1% -6% 426 84%

Louis Agassiz 3595 Bosworth Rd. D-10 337 347 354 352 326 325 297 3% 2% -1% -7% 0% -9% 0 NA

Louisa May Alcott 10308 Baltic Rd. R-5 212 233 225 239 201 234 221 10% -3% 6% -16% 16% -6% 226 102%

Marion C. Seltzer 1468 West 98th St. R-9 641 590 588 534 485 454 413 -8% 0% -9% -9% -6% -9% 423 102%

McKinley 3349 West 125th St. N-7 340 308 283 308 277 275 265 -9% -8% 9% -10% -1% -4% 450 170%

Newton D. Baker 3690 West 159th St. D-10 478 458 477 514 400 334 356 -4% 4% 8% -22% -17% 7% 0 NA

Riverside 14601 Montrose N-1 530 554 521 529 463 462 474 5% -6% 2% -12% 0% 3% 436 92%

R.G. Jones 4550 West 150th St. N-3 393 396 395 390 429 412 447 1% 0% -1% 10% -4% 8% 450 101%

Valley View 17200 Valleyview D-10 98 134 151 191 196 212 196 37% 13% 26% 3% 8% -8% 0 NA

Watterson-Lake 1422 West 74th St. N-7 550 564 500 379 380 336 267 3% -11% -24% 0% -12% -21% 650 243%

Wilbur Wright 11005 Parkhurst Dr. R-9 632 607 623 573 487 481 398 -4% 3% -8% -15% -1% -17% 720 181%

Totals 6900 6771 6856 6514 6168 6074 5761 -2% 1% -5% -5% -2% -5% 5671 98%



Excess / (deficit) Master Plan slots in 2018-19 706

Ave. annual survival factor, without highest and lowest years 0.96616


Ajusted excess / (deficit) Master Plan slots, 2018-19 821

Marshall: The Master Plan would provide space for about 706 to 821 more students than the neighborhood is likely to have in

2018-19. Opportunities for reducing capacity: Watterson-Lake (267 students) from planned 650 to 350; McKinley (265 students) from

450 to 350; Clara Westropp (413 students) from 540 to 450; Barbara Booker (381 students) from 450 to 350; replacing Wilbur Wright

(398 students) for 450 students instead of renovating it for 720. Change from 2010 Master Plan: minus 860.

23

Lincoln-West PreK-8 Address

2010

Master

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Buhrer 1991 Barber Ave. N-3 443 447 333 332 351 365 376 1% -26% 0% 6% 4% 3% 350 93%

Clark 5550 Clark Ave. R-7 595 560 587 551 608 611 592 -6% 5% -6% 10% 0% -3% 540 91%

Jos. M. Gallagher 6601 Franklin Blvd. N-8 812 780 758 690 647 654 701 -4% -3% -9% -6% 1% 7% 720 103%

Luis Munoz Marin 1701 Castle Ave. N-9 892 823 784 820 718 709 639 -8% -5% 5% -12% -1% -10% 540 85%

Orchard 4200 Bailey Ave. N-5 593 537 368 371 369 314 333 -9% -31% 1% -1% -15% 6% 450 135%

Paul Dunbar 2200 West 28th St. N-5 315 271 342 205 182 208 238 -14% 26% -40% -11% 14% 14% 450 189%

Scranton 1991 Barber Ave. D-10 457 447 466 430 435 431 406 -2% 4% -8% 1% -1% -6% 0 NA

Thomas Jefferson (preK-8) ** 3145 West 46th St. N-4 0 0 0 167 232 245 256 NA NA NA 39% 6% 4% 265 104%

Tremont 2409 West 10th St. D-10 456 470 507 522 575 603 567 3% 8% 3% 10% 5% -6% 0 NA

Walton 3409 Walton Ave. N-9 592 572 603 544 460 352 311 -3% 5% -10% -15% -23% -12% 450 145%

Waverly 1810 West 54th St. D-10 448 487 462 419 338 320 301 9% -5% -9% -19% -5% -6% 0 NA

PreK-8 Totals 5603 5394 5210 5051 4915 4812 4720 -4% -3% -3% -3% -2% -2% 3765 80%

** Jefferson PreK-8 2010 Master Plan capacity is an estimate, accounting for dual use as a high school and its current unavailability to non-immigrants



Excess / (deficit) Master Plan slots in 2018-19 (327)

Ave. annual survival factor, without highest and lowest years 0.97187


Adjusted excess / (deficit) Master Plan slots 2018-19 (327)

Lincoln-West: The 2010 Master Plan would provide space for about 327 fewer students than the neighborhood is likely to

have in 2018-19. Because four schools remain to be built under the current Plan, there are multiple options for adjusting student

capacity in the neighborhood. Use of Jefferson as a K-12 for immigrants hinders analysis of the school’s Master Plan contribution to

overall neighborhood capacity. One obvious question that also needs to be addressed is what to do with Tremont Montessori. Located

in a neighborhood with ongoing housing construction, the school has 567 students but tentatively is planned for demolition in Segment

10. The similarly planned demolition of Scranton could fill up currently unused space in the new Paul Dunbar and Orchard (although

transportation could be required), posing the question of where would the Tremont students attend school? Addition of 350 to Lincoln-

West’s planned capacity is suggested. Change from 2010 Master Plan: plus 350.

24

South PreK-8 Address

2010

Master

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Albert B. Hart 3901 East 74th St. D-6 374 408 328 0 0 0 0 9% -20% -100% NA NA NA 0 NA

Fullerton 5920 Fullerton Ave. Keep 374 398 367 401 316 309 297 6% -8% 9% -21% -2% -4% 0 NA

Miles Park 4090 East 93rd St. N-1 549 444 502 565 578 551 552 -19% 13% 13% 2% -5% 0% 650 118%

Mound 5935 Ackley Rd. N-4 317 248 235 253 499 485 417 -22% -5% 8% 97% -3% -14% 450 108%

Union 6701 Union Ave. D-10 243 272 233 254 0 0 0 12% -14% 9% -100% NA NA 0 NA

Willow 5004 Glazier Ave. N-9 244 222 215 227 237 228 265 -9% -3% 6% 4% -4% 16% 350 132%

Warner 8315 Jeffries Ave. N-2 128 197 264 302 354 350 395 54% 34% 14% 17% -1% 13% 570 144%

Totals 2229 2189 2144 2002 1984 1923 1926 -2% -2% -7% -1% -3% 0.16% 2020 105%







South: The 2010 Master Plan would provide space for about 275-313 more students than the neighborhood is likely to have in

2018-19. The only school remaining to be built in South is Willow, which has 265 students and is planned for a capacity of 350. The

school is geographically isolated, the only CMSD facility in its Zip Code. No other planned or current single new school is nearby or

has enough excess capacity to handle the Willow enrollment, which increased 17 percent in the last year. However, a transportation

solution would be better than creating overcapacity. Change from 2010 Master Plan: minus 350.

25

High schools

The state’s new enrollment forecast provides for 9,035 high school students (including career technical training). That would

allow the District to add 941 slots to its 2010 Plan, which calls for a new West Side High for 600 students and a new Glenville High

for 912 students.

Unfortunately, the BAC’s analysis – using the same methodology employed for the K-8 schools -- identifies a need to add

about 1,350 to 2,150 new or fully renovated high school slots to the 2010 Plan. Details are on the following pages with charts for each

of three high school regions as previously defined by the District.

As with the K-8 schools, the solution may be to use only local tax dollars to build needed space that is not deemed eligible for

co-funding by the state. Unlike with the K-8 schools, the problem does not stem largely from under-use of capacity already built.

Rather, the problem may lie with the forecasts themselves.

Here, we can only note that the state consultant’s draft reports have consistently underestimated the District’s high school

enrollment. In 2006, the forecast for the current school year was for 9,604 students. In 2009, the forecast for this year was 10,208. The

2011 forecast predicted 11,023 students this year. The actual high school enrollment in 2013-14? At least 12,291.

That record does not mean that the latest forecast is off-target, but it does suggest that if the District goes ahead and plans for

more high school construction and renovation than currently qualifies for co-funding -- financing the excess with only local tax money

-- the next forecast in two or three years might further expand the co-funding allowance for high schools.

Whatever options are chosen for using the co-funded high school space, the District faces decisions on what to do with the

numerous high schools that inevitably will be left out of the new Master Plan. Essentially, should they be minimally maintained and

eventually closed, or should they be substantially or fully renovated or even replaced using only local tax dollars?

Although these decisions will not be part of the official, state co-funded Master Plan, they need to be made now so that the

District will know how much more capital improvements money it needs.

26

High Schools Address

2010

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Plan

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WEST REGION

West Side ??? N-5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA NA NA NA NA 600 NA

Rhodes 5100 Biddulph R-2 1416 1374 1271 1189 1184 1232 1226 -3% -7% -6% 0% 4% 0% 1005 82%

New Tech @ Mooney 3213 Montclair 0 0 0 0 0 62 162 NA NA NA NA NA 161% 0 NA

Garrett Morgan 4016 Woodbine D-10 227 214 250 366 311 304 302 -6% 17% 46% -15% -2% -1% 0 NA

Lincoln-West 3202 West 30th Keep 1414 1384 1449 886 842 825 887 -2% 5% -39% -5% -2% 8% 0 NA

Lincoln-West 9th grade 3202 West 30th N-4 0 0 0 362 293 256 209 NA NA NA -19% -13% -18% 0 0%

T. Jeff. Newcomers HS** 3145 West 46th N-4 0 0 0 60 76 92 108 NA NA NA 27% 21% 17% 520 565%

John Marshall 10-12**** 3952 West 140th N-5 1668 1642 1597 1162 1036 840 834 -2% -3% -27% -11% -19% -1% 1260 150%

Carl Shuler (Marshall) 13501 Terminal D-10 369 348 483 0 0 0 0 -6% 39% -100% NA NA NA 0 NA

Marshall 9th @ Shuler*** 13501 Terminal D-10 0 0 0 342 293 301 337 NA NA NA -14% 3% 12% 0 NA

Max Hayes Vo-Ed/New Tech

Detroit Ave./W.

65th & Walworth N-5 472 510 518 517 761 826 893 8% 2% 0% 47% 9% 8% 800 97%

Halle CLC 7901 Halle D-10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA NA NA NA NA 0 NA

Totals 5566 5472 5568 4884 4796 4738 4958 -2% 2% -12% -2% -1% 5% 4185 88%







West Region. The Region is projected to be short 351 to 769 new or fully renovated high school spaces in 2019 IF the planned

West Side High is built for 600 students. If it is assumed that Max Hayes enrollment comes evenly from all three high school regions

and Thomas Jefferson is removed from the equation because it is not available to the general population, then the Region’s need for

additional new or fully renovated high school Master Plan space is 473 to 654 slots.

The range of unbuilt but needed high school slots in the Region is therefore 951 to 1,369 slots.

John Marshall is being built for 1,260 students, and the current Marshall Grade 9-12 enrollment is 1,171, so overcrowding is

unlikely there, especially considering that Carl Shuler, which has undergone more than $5 million in renovations for service as a

swing school during Marshall construction, will be available later to serve as a Marshall 9th

Grade Academy or a specialty high school.

27

However the Garrett Morgan School of Science is tentatively planned for demolition in Segment 10, and James Rhodes High,

fully renovated in Segment 2, remains enrolled over capacity even though the third floor of nearby Charles Mooney has been

converted to a New Tech high school. Lincoln-West is not in good repair and is a candidate for replacement or renovation.

The District is also installing a Bard Early College high school at the former Brooklawn elementary school on West 117th

St.

The conservative unbuilt-but-needed range allows for replacement or renovation of Lincoln-West and/or replacement of

Garrett Morgan, a new West Side High, full renovation of Mooney as a high school, full renovation of Brooklawn. Suggested change

to 2010 Master Plan: add 350 to 700 slots.

SOUTHEAST REGION High Schools Address

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Washington Park 3875 Wash. Park ??? 0 0 0 139 148 193 195 NA NA NA 6% 30% 1% 0 NA

South HS (now closed) 7415 Broadway Keep 966 920 788 0 0 0 0 -5% -14% -100% NA NA NA 0 NA

John F. Kennedy HS 17100 Harvard Keep 908 976 878 1013 794 840 782 7% -10% 15% -22% 6% -7% 0 NA

Whitney Young (9-12) 17900 Harvard Keep 237 221 218 198 149 126 111 -7% -1% -9% -25% -15% -12% 0 NA

John Adams HS 3817 MLK Jr. N-1 1262 1176 1174 1077 1154 1021 1055 -7% 0% -8% 7% -12% 3% 1335 127%

Totals 3373 3293 3058 2427 2245 2180 2143 -2% -7% -21% -7% -3% -2% 1335 62%




Ave. annual survival factor, adjust to remove highest, lowest years 0.95024


Excess / (deficit) Master Plan slots in 2018-19, adjusted (325)

Southeast Region. The BAC analysis finds that the Southeast Region will be short of high school space for 153 to 325

students. The OFCC’s minimum size for a new school is 350. Kennedy has already received $2.5 million in locally financed repairs

and renovations. The former Cranwood elementary will host the Kennedy 9th

Grade next year. The best option seems to be locally

funded improvements at Kennedy, though a small (350) renovation – Young, Washington Park? – may be appropriate. Suggested

change to 2010 Master Plan: add 0 to 350 slots.

28

High Schools Address

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NORTHEAST REGION

Collinwood HS 15210 St. Clair Keep 987 889 807 697 625 620 598 -10% -9% -14% -10% -1% -4% 0 NA

Ginn Academy 655 East 162nd D-10 0 204 277 258 219 201 259 NA 36% -7% -15% -8% 29% 0 NA

Glenville HS 650 East 113th N-9 1383 1136 1040 939 787 703 641 -18% -8% -10% -16% -11% -9% 912 142%

East HS 1349 East 79th. Keep 711 661 627 0 0 0 0 -7% -5% -100% NA NA NA 0 NA

Margaret Ireland 1800 East 63rd D-10 46 94 78 120 0 0 0 104% -17% 54% -100% NA NA NA

East Tech HS 2439 East 55th Keep 764 793 795 862 772 680 643 4% 0% 8% -10% -12% -5% 0 NA

Cle. School of Arts 9-12 2064 Stearns Rd. N-5 374 403 445 428 414 379 384 8% 10% -4% -3% -8% 1% 550 143%

John Hay 2075 Stokes R-1 593 722 831 859 842 868 910 22% 15% 3% -2% 3% 5% 1232 135%

MLK High 1651 East 71st Keep 581 497 500 565 549 494 465 -14% 1% 13% -3% -10% -6% 0 NA

Jane Addams 2373 East 30th Keep 497 410 541 615 661 522 371 -18% 32% 14% 7% -21% -29% 0 NA

SuccessTech 1440 Lakeside R-1 245 245 246 231 235 198 196 0% 0% -6% 2% -16% -1% 400 204%

MC2 STEM 2124 Chester NA 0 81 163 224 292 313 340 NA 101% 37% 30% 7% 9% 0 NA

Design Lab 1740 East 32nd Keep 0 0 0 0 0 175 NA NA NA NA NA NA 0 NA

Jesse Owens Acad. 11711 Larchmere D-6 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA NA NA NA NA NA 0 NA

Totals 6181 6135 6350 5798 5396 4978 4982 -1% 4% -9% -7% -8% 0% 3094 62%







Northeast Region. The Region is projected to be short of needed new or fully renovated high school space for about 1,003 to

1,092 students. If one assumes that John Hay, Cleveland School of the Arts, SuccessTech, and MC2 STEM draw students equally

from the three high school regions, the need rises slightly to 1,128 to 1,171.

Meanwhile, the 2010 Plan calls for a new Glenville for 912 students although the school has only 641 now.

If the Glenville plan were reduced to 600 and 1,100 slots were added to the 2010 plan, the District could allocate new or fully

renovated space for about 1,400 additional students in the region.

29

Options for using that additional space are numerous: renovation of part of East Tech, as specified in the 2008 Master Plan;

replacement of Collinwood; renovation of Martin Luther King Jr.; a new downtown school; a permanent home for MC2 STEM and

Design Lab, renovation of Jane Addams. Clearly, all of these cannot be co-funded, and the rest would require local-only funding.

The possibilities for the Northeast Region would be expanded if the District elected to move Glenville High to the half-unused

Franklin D. Roosevelt K-8 building, although that would entail finding a home for the K-8 students. Suggested change to 2010

Master Plan: add 1,000 to 1,100 slots.

Community involvement

Much clearly is at stake for Cleveland in the current Master Plan revision process. Community participation is vitally

important for a successful outcome.

The new co-funded Master Plan will shape the final stages of the District’s school construction and renovation program and

determine whether, at its conclusion, the program will provide access to modern educational facilities for all of the city’s children. The

new co-funded Master Plan will likely be part of larger Plan that includes many projects not co-funded by the state. Together they will

determine how much more money the District will need for construction and renovation.

The District Administration currently plans soon to formally present its Master Plan proposal to the Board of Education,

though at a date as yet unspecified, and then to hold a series of community meetings about the proposals. Based on public input from

those meetings, the District intends present a revised proposal to the Board and to the Ohio Facilities Construction Commission.

Eventually, the District will have to decide if and when to ask voters to approve money to execute the plans. The $335 million

approved by voters in 2001 to launch the program is nearly depleted.

master plan update 17 revised final, 04102014

Documents

new enrollment forecast

enrollment decline

actual enrollment

construction dollars

districts master plan

master plan update

plan collinwood

latest enrollment forecast