mas@ :aˆ b ¥ † œ 2987055 :¢ @ œ2987053 /4 ? …§±...

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  • ( (

    : 19671997

    1998

  • !( 1998 ()! &% #" (

    3033. . ) 19111. .

    MAS@planet.edu: " B"2987055A: @A !G !I ( H (!A )"N )>O! & (I ! & K" )I "((H "%

    "A G (R Q&A < ) D"" H" )>O" SOA(TU V! ! A

    ) &! &) )( K WGHN - ! .1994 YZ7 D7 @ )! )D Q XH (! "R7 @ 7!

    @ @" A) \ AU DG )" _^ WH H]H G QH7\ 7!" \ f . ^ ed I 7!@" &! (! d HG bb7 AZc I X7 )"

    #"H HR7 g G!HR% IH hi! \ .

    j &! G\ )f A" b -"WH )" @ UX Hk GHN H ) H! " H Hf R G:

    GHN "cWH &" .GHN

    :

    Ak G A( 1996) @ G j #Qo @ f o" bm A"1996

    D(71996 [ f"& @ f o" bm 1996!% AB : [ H"@

    @ !H7 R7" !A1996 QO" I@ I R e : "HN (" 7R7 (1996

    @ QH @" R j 1996 f o" bm " H" "m GHN Q@B ]A)>ZHH "m ( bm "o f1997@

    1997!q% "I AB Q&(H : ( ! H# @ f o" bm 1997

    W DG GHN @ f o" bm 1997 I@ @ % AB 1997@"

    I @ I QH @ f o" bm Z G( hU1997 I@ @ >eH j GU \G H H "iZ71997

    QO" I@ :@ IK& I GU 1997 eG >eH 1998[" r@ : GU m G )HO G\ eo R! & @ f o" bm

    1998m Q!H" "H W t" m" " :." ) ,+ *(" %$#') '" %$# " @ f o" bm

    G uH : 1994-k)"" jOA1997 X u jOA1997 )"" k : 1994-

    71997)" : 1994- )!

    : ( 1997 bm d R f o" 1997 @ @I AB 1997WH H! : & @ f o" bm

    ".3 %.*# D G1 "b) 1997 D G2 !A1997 D G3 "b) 1998

    ".3 5%*4+ D G1 Ai !A1998

    . "N\ 7 H" H G H\ ! veG:# 64

  • ( (

    : 19671997

    1998

  • QO@ " QH1997-1967 :

    VZ7 :w"@ \: # @ y).

    ( ( ) 3

    z1998 ! (()! &% #" (

  • a

    ) ( 1967 ! "#$% &'() *+,- .&/$ $01 &2+ . 4+ + 50 6+7 80 9+'(: & ;0(

    1975?1990 8@: 90 A1 B# 80 .& C D= A1 &/$ &,- . . &'() E) F4+ 0/G H+= IJ G0 KGL $1993 MN O $1 R E) (#$ SC T$U .F4++ 9+'(: & ;0( VL W0I E) 4+IJ F7X K04 / YZ SC *OO( [ &0 .&'() . RJ SC K!\L $

    G$= ]L *^IL _ .F4 B K$`1 $ + 50 SZ !J + ` +a ]L b c+O .1#d (1992 .116,000= . G$e 9+'(: & ;0( 36,000 &= 1996 j! l ]_ .

    D .: G0+ ]_ H+= B(L m7n1 *0 op _ ` H+= IJ +'( = H+= q . = .

    D= 6^O+ F4+ B>G 0J KPO K(#$ G$ .RJ SC K!\L

    + 9+r G%d sI ]_ &'() & = & 50 t(d >_ & = u> $01 $`J . $ k/ ." ! "I = O *+,-1993 . E) v 0k0 Dw, op &O>

    ' D x+h D y4+ G%d 9+'(: & ;0( . &'() H+=z #0Rz *P_tR %= $ .KO4 &'L k/ .9((L 1993 . F "mX_ 7{1 i |L d)1975?1987"mk SIJ o+1 &'() SIJ #0Rz F ; ]_ 6 ..

    $ _ $1 ;: (( *I1993=d "$ H+= y4+ G%d G

    &2+ #$% _ &'() . P} +% SC &,- Q = m1 ]) ! &'() B +% HO1 .op j#m/z . >_ & = u> G~: +r q1#$ `0 .( > L D X_ .y4+ G%d 0

    ,4 0 t(d . .&'() 4+ + +O4J ;>} j! 0^O D $` E) R C9+r G%d . $=41 &'() ;0 9 K(( BI0 R C .op H+= =

    +2 q1#$ G` H+= 9+r G%d .

  • b

    $=) $! q 0` `2O G#0J & K(( 0 9X^O 2J D I (#$ SC G y4+ `G%d K(4 eL) .( RJ SC B1 ]O- ]0I ,2 $1 D $ d

    KlJ G-#: . ] P ;$ jC) D &_ ,- D o_ $ d $O= = .$ (L ._& Z Ez KG04J H+= w jUl H+= ;.

  • c

    4+ + 50+ " ! 2 9+'(: & ;0( &,- . D !J m 2J 504 B># H+= 7 o . j! &/$ B`01 H+= F4++ . ]L d)

    op 5GL $ .9+'(: ;04 E) F4+ 0/G H+= IJ G0 $` j41 K4 BI0y4+ G%d mO_

  • d

  • e

    !"

    1#$ 1

    2 #% ! $&'& & $( 3

    2#1 $)*& $+, 3

    2#2-./ & 4

    2?2 ?1 G 4 2?2 ?2KPO ;41 5 2?2 ?34+ `_J W%: 'G !() 6

    2#3 0!& 6

    2?3 ?1+ 50 4 ]00 2J 7 2?3 ?2 0! 7 2?3 ?3O 10 2?3 ?4D!J 10 2?3 ?5#0Rz 11 2?3 ?6R#$J m K 11

    2#4%+1 2 11

    2#5$3.4 12

    3 #%56 78 $29& $0:& ; $,80& $& < & 14

    3#1=80& '& > 14

    3?1 ?1P,4 x'%a ,4 0 15 3?1 ?22J Kd$ _# 16 3?1 ?3= K 17

    3#2$&8& 17

    3#3$3.4 18

    4 #?)@ ; $,80& $&'& ?AB 20

    4#1C?)D '& E ) F@ G 3 & $H 20

    4#2 78 $0:& G' ?AB ?)@ ; %56 22

    4?2 ?1 :01L D`L D 22 4?2 ?2>0$ x'%a 23

  • f

    4?2 ?3 9= _ 24 4?2 ?4y!J _ 25 4?2 ?5 9= Rd m7n ?9+'(: ;04+ G%d 26

    4#3?)@ ; $,80& $&'& C0I !& 1 26

    4?3 ?1 ]0 ?]0P0P L 26 4?3 ?2z K#O=d &2 27 4?3 ?3 F m ?FP0P m L 28 4?3 ?44+ 0 +4 0k G%d 0_01 28

    4#4$3.4 30

    5 #?)@ F@ $,80& $& JK %+L M)N 32

    5#1O!)P Q R* SK E R$&8& 33

    5?1 ?1 > 1968 1973 : t &= 34 5?1 ?2 > 1974 1987 : #0Rz &= t 34 5?1 ?3 1988?1990 : m$1 >"_2J & ;0(" 36 5?1 ?4 1993?1997 :KO4 &'z `0+ G0=45 36 5?1 ?5&2 H+= 9+r G%d #$ 37

    5#2 $,80& $&'& T C?)D U8& :$,& M)K 38

    5?2 ?1&'() 9= $h(d Km1 38 5?2 ?29+'(: & ;0( D`/} & ]04+ 39 5?2 ?3y4+ & +,1 40 5?2 ?4: & ;0( 4P 9+'( 40

    5#3?)@ ; W,80& G'& X >0Y :XA!P 2 $)& 41

    5?3 ?1z 0 Z 41 5?3 ?2+'(: Y1(d K#01 42

    5#4$3.B 44

    6 3 !& $3.4 45

    [S 46

    \H. [41]

  • g

    G] $^?P

    $R1: F4+ ],4+ x'%a1967?1993 )op m _` i Td} #z( [45]

    $R2: + 50+ x'%a :1968 ? 1997 )`0J O4 Kd$J Td} #z( [46]

    $R3: . + 50 _#2 Kd$1968?1997 [48] $R4L: 4+ + 9= B`01970?1997 [50] $R4t: &'() 4+ + 9= B`01970?1997

    [51]

    $R5: D F+ B`01) . Td} (% . & ],

  • h

    GP $^?P

    &,-1: L . . _#2J Kd$1968?1997 [67] t . . _#2J Kd$1968 ?1997 [68] R . _#2J Kd$ . 1968?1997 [68]

    &,-2: L . & ],

  • 1

    1#$

    9+'(: d 1967 K$ = .) ( H+=&/$ $0 9((L #$% _ &'() E) Q>$1 . *0 9> + 50 jY q> s=1

    1967?1992 9+r ;04 KG .33 %> . &'() *%25% ?35 % 4+ + 50 D1975 8@: 90 &/$ B# q= A1 &/$ &X .

    + .0 YZ d0 / G &/$ = *^(d &'() E) + $` 1970?1990 K 7 8@: 90 &/$ = q *^( .F1 D X_ (World Bank 1993).

    H+= = .]_ q, .F4++ S> &/$ H+= &'() & VL %1 i .op

    K B'O H+= "4+> "G = H(#L .9+'(: G%d y4+ G%d # ((L = K$/ H+= B+4 H+= 9+'(: $ #G L$

    m O .

    $`z YC W# D, $1 D= S$ d{4 .

    #$ #/ B1 [ K,2J g qR0` 0I0J C 6e L ]n .C m_ D $ d .6O>0J KPO +J K,2J $`$ .5/L PL P# + + m . 'G 4 m 9!> .

  • 2

    9+'(: _J W%: 1968 (#$1968?1993 .41 R#G $% ]L j# $= o- BI0 *P_ +'(: #z ;

    +, +4+( >01 [ J $0 KPO HO1 |L d) .FXO D $`$ . 'G #G% *+ ( $ 4+ `_J W%:1994 . KP 0Y> op $RL $1994 D, d

    ! . & l &O D $ J $ K` $ 1 4+ +'(: #G%J D _ ] Bd (#$ !2 j( tO(z + A'P H+= ]% | d) .$ . D G(d * _

    op 41 +_ .FXO g CRL K(#G .

    * 48 0^ H+= (#$ :!$% !G 6 D >0J KPO O z W ` .9+'(: y4+ & ;0( *+/G [ + 50 &,C X W M4` . 6X W Q70`

    !J 9= j!`01 .9+'(: & ;0( G$=L

  • 3

    2#% ! $&'& & $(

    OO4 &,- j!> &R D KPO O E) ."dL .; D $ d .&'() E) YZ K0I0J 0 >0J . .50 SC jY $`$ H+= -O &,2 7{1 KPO B@ $h4J

    &'() G$= 0 #02J #z G H+= Cm7n1 0 #$ H+= &'() E) tR #0Rz #G 6^O `z "((L "L . X #0Rz 0 4

    IJ X G0 . G &0= #G m41 H+= 1#$ O 0 >0J KPO O G$ D YZ BY21 . !> G$ H+= W0 9+` >0J KPO G 2 ]> 8

    4+ YZ tO(d .

    + &_2 H+= .G= . ]$+O + 50 KP 01 . .K0Y D 1 9!>4 0 & 21 d |L D .$ $= D], . 0 >0J KPO BI ]L d)

    o_ . 9+'(: W%: _ > $>1968 G%d 0 +- X, L KP k/ & .= y4+ . b y4+ G%d D= KPO B@ D= q{4 K (

    1993 6 . KPO m/z *@ $ 4+ `_J W%: 'G E) {4J SC C$ *+P 1995$=%> .1#$%J $ ` Q+` > .$ & l Kk01 H+= .$ K` H+= ]

    !%1 KPO B . +'(: KPO D H+=L R#$ 070 4+ KPO ]L $` qP d)&% C !^I01 j` T0( tO(z.

    2#1 $)*& $+, 2

    H+= 9+'(: W%: _ $ =" 50 4QJ + "(TLFS) KPO H+= 0%^+ C2P .z . .04J *`RL $1968 H+= & 21 mO_ '%) = H+= .+%> 8900

    ! .(L6700 (L 2200 .32 $ 0 KP *X( |L d) . . `$1 $4 '%) K=0 7 E) (z j41 )]$J .FR K .5 ],( (

    1 + KP >01 d19944+ 0 +4 E) +'(: K+4 D K{4J &P *># > `#G &_2 $ YP . 2 lP .KPO B@ ` 0 X_ &k1 H+= 0%^+ : 4+ `_J W%: 'G1997 j# .+ 50 4 .7u .23 ?31

    9+'(: W%: _1992u 04 9'%: t, . .103 ?107. 3 *0 B jY . H+= *+ - $>4200(L 1968 ?1973 E) KG .6200 1974 G` K ( .

    *+ b8900 1992 .(ICBS 1992). 4 E) '02= .!^4 ~ [ .(z j41 j` 4_ + j` .K=0 0R D .F F1 CX( j` .F F1 ! &

    F F1 !).

  • 4

    (L &, `4 ]L W= .`G0= O '02= = $h( opX K=0 . E) ]0+ $0 0 v (z G>L ]L 9=` d qP d) .t0+(z Z + $'0 j# V) 9+r B '2 g #/ E) t0+(z C G{` $ .8 .Z0 L !4P ,4 J

    ./} !KPO " o 7$ . o+1 B 9+'(: _J &O D + 4J K` jY41 $ & l m` B &'() OJ(UNCTAD 1996).

    .2 1995 .9+'(: W%: _ &X !+X .* +( .O + $ & l K`1 . mO_ = H+= K$ =)7640(L ( t0+(n C#/ .

    &J '7 `G0= O '02= ` .`#G ]L d)9+'(: 4J q $1 & ]_ 4J 5 ) 4+ `_J W%: 'G1997( qPz _L +>L 4+ `_J W%: 'G 4 & . D= #G% KW%: P# O%1 o D, o+1 B 4+ `_J W%: 'G, m 9+'(: W%: _ D= #G% .

    $ Q+1 &_2 $= D

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