marketing intelligence_la statistica a servizio della business intelligence
DESCRIPTION
Marketing Intelligence, 5 novembre 2014 - Verona Intervento del Prof. Guerriero (Università degli Studi di Verona)TRANSCRIPT
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“Statistical thinking will one day be as
necessary as the ability to read and write!”
Herbert George Wells (1866 - 1946)
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Non mi fido molto delle statistiche, perché un uomo con la testa nel forno
acceso e i piedi nel congelatore statisticamente ha una temperatura
media.
(Charles Bukowski, poeta; 1920-1994)
Ci sono tre generi di bugie: le bugie, le dannate bugie e le statistiche.
(Benjamin Disraeli, politico e scrittore1804-1881)
Da li conti che se fanno/ seconno le statistiche d'adesso/ risurta che te
tocca un pollo all'anno:/ e, se nun entra ne le spese tue,/ t'entra ne la
statistica lo stesso/ perché c'è un antro che ne magna due.
(Trilussa, poeta; 1871-1950)
Aforismi
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Nella scala sociale lo statistico è piuttosto in basso….
Una figura simile a quella del vigile urbano o dell’esattore
delle tasse….
La statistica stessa è considerata noiosa, tortuosa,
complessa, PERICOLOSA….
Dunn ed Everitt
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PROFESSIONISTI POCO
RACCOMANDABILI
e
SOCIALMENTE NON DESIDERABILI
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STATISTICO vs STATISTA
cose dello Stato stato delle cose
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Disciplina che si occupa di predisporre
adeguati metodi quantitativi per
• raccogliere e organizzare
• elaborare e sintetizzare
• analizzare e interpretare
dati e informazioni utili per esaminare i fenomeni reali
Che cosa è
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The Three faces of Statistics
1. Descriptive Statistic - Variability
2. Probability
3. Inference Statistic - Sampling
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Not all numbers are equal
DATA
QUALITATIVE
NOMINAL
(DICOTHOMOUS)
ORDINAL
(RANK)
QUANTITATIVE
DISCRETE CONTINUOUS
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L’attuale disponibilità di elaboratori
sempre più potenti e di programmi
sempre meno costosi e più sofisticati ha
favorito lo sviluppo e la diffusione delle
analisi statistiche
Analisi dei dati
Data Mining
Big data
Statistica oggi
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Zona TOSCANA (%)
VENETO (%)
DOC 17 62
DOCG 64 0
IGT 19 38
TOTALE 100 100
Tables
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Histogram of FEV1 (l.)
(bins = 10)
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Histogram of FEV1 (l.)
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Histogram of FEV1 (l.) – kernel function
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Histogram of FEV1 (l.) by COPD diagnosis
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Line Plot
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When to use mean or median:
Use both by all means.
Mean performs best when we have a
symmetric distribution with thin tails.
If distribution is skewed, use the median.
Remember: the mean follows the tail.
Mean vs Median
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y = 6.8904x - 19.891 R² = 0.8809
0
50
100
150
200
250
14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34
# V
OC
AB
OLI
# SCARPE
Relazione causale?
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y = -4.5x + 182.5 R² = 0.216
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
15,5 16 16,5 17 17,5 18 18,5 19 19,5
# V
OC
AB
OLI
# SCARPE
2 anni
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y = -3x + 175,5 R² = 0,9
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
19,8 20 20,2 20,4 20,6 20,8 21 21,2
# V
OC
AB
OLI
# SCARPE
3 anni y = -0,5x + 142
R² = 0,0909
129,5
130
130,5
131
131,5
132
132,5
21,5 22 22,5 23 23,5
# V
OC
AB
OLI
# SCARPE
4 anni
y = -0,5x + 171,5 R² = 0,4545
157,5
158
158,5
159
159,5
160
160,5
23 24 25 26 27 28
# V
OC
AB
OLI
# SCARPE
5 anni y = -0,6949x + 219,12
R² = 0,4829
194195196197198199200201
26 28 30 32 34
# V
OC
AB
OLI
# SCARPE
6 anni
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# SCARPE # VOCABOLI
ETA’
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Cos’è un modello statistico?
Un modello statistico è un tentatico di semplificare e rappresentare la realtà. Per assolvere alla sua funzione di sintesi della realtà, un modello deve esssere il più semplice possibile, deve cioè rispettare il principio del rasoio di Occam. Ovviamente nessun modello è in grado di rappresenatre esattamente la realtà! Tutti i modelli sono sbagliati ma alcuni sono utili!
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Come si costruisce un modello statistico?
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· Il fatturato annuo della vendita di detersivi per una certa
azienda dipende dal costo della
pubblicità che l’azienda ha sostenuto in quell’anno? Di
quanto?
Il modo con cui espongo le automobili nel salone influenza le
vendite?
Esempi
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In una località degli Stati Uniti fu rilevato il consumo di
gelato mensile (Y, pinte pro-capite) e la temperatura media mensile (X, gradi
F)):
Esempio
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Statistica – prendere decisioni in condizioni di incertezza
Approccio scientifico
Modello statistico – stocasticità vs determinismo
Statistica e modelli statistici al servizio dell’I.T.
STATISTICA? SI’, GRAZIE
Take Home Messagge
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