marketbob's oscar predictions 2011

8/7/2019 MarketBob's Oscar Predictions 2011

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/marketbobs-oscar-predictions-2011 1/17

My writer site http://www.cforgrave.com/ pg. 0

MarketBOB's

Oscar

Predictions

© 2011 by Sportscar Projects Ltd




MarketBOB’s Oscar Picks for 2011

February 17, 2011

The annual Oscar awards show is a terrible

bore, but everybody watches it to see the

stars embarrass themselves and truly give

the performance of their lives as “good

sport” losers. Yes, one star wins and acts

modestly appreciative to all the others who

“helped” them achieve this ultimate treasure

for their ego-driven career. But even theyare “acting” humble. So, why watch? To

pick the winners, of course!

The Oscars are a competition of sorts, a vote

by industry peers on the quality of work

displayed on movie screens each week (if

you’re lucky). Most of the time, the awardsgo to movies few have seen or even care to

see. The Academy voters reward artistic

efforts over box office hits. Art isn’t what

Hollywood is about, although the movie studios strive to

win because winners sells more tickets and allows them to

hire more creative talent who aspire to win Oscars. In an

incestuous business of mutual back-scratching, the annual

Academy Awards show is the social zenith of the moviebusiness.

MarketBOB concentrates on box office hits and their

emotional impact on audiences so the Oscar best picture




list rarely includes movies I review on a weekly basis.

However, despite Hollywood’s best efforts, a few rogue

blockbusters receive nominations and this year is no

different: The Social Network, Inception, Toy Story 3 and True Grit made both lists. For my money, this makes

them winners. However, you can’t enjoy the spectacle of

the Oscar show if you restrict yourself to the big movies

you really liked on opening weekend. No, you have to dig

around the multiplex and watch the anomalies, the “black

swans” of Hollywood that didn’t sell tickets but impressed

the hell out of Academy voters.

The movie with the most nominations (12) is a dull little

story about a pompous ass with a speech impediment who

has to, after a build-up of decades, make the bloody speech

of his life as Britain enters the bloody war against Hitler.

No special effects, no 3D imagery but just a few actors in a

few rooms, talking. And they are the same sex, no less.

So, you wouldn’t walk across the street to see it but when

it wins a ton of awards, you’ll be dying to s-s-see it. The

King’ s Speech is the top contender for the top awards.

Now the second most-nominated movie (10) is True Grit,

a remake of a John Wayne movie produced and directed

by the quirky Coen Brothers, who essentially work outside

of the Hollywood system and have the ability to make

whatever damn movie they want. They keep costs down,attract top actors and stay true to their inner vision of story

and visual themes. They didn’t make #1 at the box office

until the third week of release, which is a remarkable

accomplishment to the power of word of mouth and the




inability of the industry to release a steady stream of new

movies with audience appeal.

The next two big box office champs on the Best Picture

Oscar list are very different. Tied with 8 nominations, TheSocial Network and Inception attracted large crowds who

like to dream about making a billion dollars. That is pretty

much everyone in America. Inception is a visually

stunning, imaginative virtual reality time-shifting rabbit

hole of a movie that challenged audiences to pay attention

or get lost in the many layers of dreamscape fantasies

depicted in the plot. Like Avatar last year, expect thismovie to take the technical categories but be ignored for

the big awards. Hell, the director Christopher Nolan didn’t

even get nominated. The Social Network is a “true”

adaptation of Mark Zuckerberg, the founder and CEO of

Facebook and the mega-success story of his life. It is an

alternate reality story too, but real. This movie was also

the front-runner for best picture until the pre-Oscar awards

picked The King’ s Speech instead and now the

momentum for this film is all on the writing (a brilliant

script full of those wordy speeches and structure Academy

members love) and directing (David Fincher) who made a

story about a few nerds hunched over computers

compelling.

True Grit is a classic American tale, with American actorsand all that, so the patriotic vote is going Gritty. It is also

a great movie, in a cynical lone western sort of way, much

like the anti-government sentiment building across the

country. It may be the movie most in sync with the times




and the Academy voters may reward it for having great

timing as well as great craft.

Toy Story 3 is the last box office hit in the Best Picture

race, but it is a cartoon. There is another category for it,Best Animated Picture so expect it to contend in that

arena.

So, who is going to win?

If you’re in an Oscar pool and have to get the mostright guesses, good luck to you and play the odds based on

the previous awards and your own personal handicap

system. My rule of thumb is to choose the favorite movie

and realize one film usually strings together a series of

wins, building momentum like a sports team marching

down the field. My money is on The King’ s Speech to

take the most high-quality Oscar gold home, followed byThe Social Network and True Grit, with Inception

picking up the tech statues.

Here are the nominees and my picks. I will be

watching and scoring myself, so I won’t care so much

about how lame the actual show is from an entertainment

point of view. I hope you do the same and get more picks

right than wrong. Good luck!




BEST MOTION PICTURE OF THE YEAR

"Black Swan"(Fox Searchlight)

"The Fighter"(Paramount)

"Inception"(Warner Bros.)"The Kids Are All Right"(Focus Features)

"The King’s Speech"(The Weinstein Company)

"127 Hours"(Fox Searchlight)

"The Social Network"(Sony Pictures Releasing)

"Toy Story 3"(Walt Disney)

"True Grit"(Paramount)

"Winter’s Bone"(Roadside Attractions)

And the winner is: The King’s S peech

ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING

"Black Swan"(Fox Searchlight), Darren Aronofsky

"The Fighter"(Paramount), David O. Russell

"The King’s Speech"(The Weinstein Company), Tom

Hooper

"The Social Network"(Sony Pictures Releasing), DavidFincher

"True Grit"(Paramount), Joel Coen and Ethan Coen

And the winner is: The Social Network, David

Fincher

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING

ROLEJavier Bardem in "Biutiful" (Roadside Attractions)

Jeff Bridges in "True Grit" (Paramount)

Jesse Eisenberg in "The Social Network" (Sony Pictures

Releasing)




Colin Firth in "The King’s Speech" (The Weinstein

Company)

James Franco in "127 Hours" (Fox Searchlight)

And the winner is: Colin Firth, The King’s S peech

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A

SUPPORTING ROLE

Christian Bale in "The Fighter" (Paramount)

John Hawkes in "Winter’s Bone" (Roadside Attractions)

Jeremy Renner in "The Town" (Warner Bros.)

Mark Ruffalo in "The Kids Are All Right" (FocusFeatures)

Geoffrey Rush in "The King’s Speech" (The Weinstein

Company)

And the winner is: Christian Bale, The Fighter

(Geoffrey Rush has already won an Oscar)

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADINGROLE

Annette Bening in "The Kids Are All Right" (Focus

Features)

Nicole Kidman in "Rabbit Hole" (Lionsgate)

Jennifer Lawrence in "Winter’s Bone" (Roadside

Attractions)

Natalie Portman in "Black Swan" (Fox Searchlight)

Michelle Williams in "Blue Valentine" (The WeinsteinCompany)

And the winner is: Natalie Portman, Black Swan

(she’ s won every other award so far)




PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A

SUPPORTING ROLE

Amy Adams in "The Fighter" (Paramount)

Helena Bonham Carter in "The King’s Speech" (TheWeinstein Company)

Melissa Leo in "The Fighter" (Paramount)

Hailee Steinfeld in "True Grit"(Paramount)

Jacki Weaver in "Animal Kingdom" (Sony Pictures

Classics)

And the winner is: Melissa Leo, The Fighter

(again, she’ s won all the other awards but she’ s overexposed now so maybe Helena Bonham Carter may

sneak in.)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM OF THE YEAR

"How to Train Your Dragon"(Paramount), Chris

Sanders and Dean DeBlois

"The Illusionist"(Sony Pictures Classics), SylvainChomet

"Toy Story 3" (Walt Disney), Lee Unkrich

And the winner is: Toy Story 3 (It is just a bit more

character-driven than Dragon and Academy voters like

stories with heart)

ACHIEVEMENT IN ART DIRECTION"Alice in Wonderland"(Walt Disney), Production

Design: Robert Stromberg, Set Decoration: Karen O’Hara

"Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1"(Warner

Bros.), Production Design: Stuart Craig, Set Decoration:




Stephenie McMillan

"Inception" (Warner Bros.), Production Design: Guy

Hendrix Dyas, Set Decoration: Larry Dias and Doug

Mowat"The King’s Speech" (The Weinstein Company),

Production Design: Eve Stewart, Set Decoration: Judy Farr

"True Grit" (Paramount), Production Design: Jess

Gonchor, Set Decoration: Nancy Haigh

And the winner is: Inception

ACHIEVEMENT IN CINEMATOGRAPHY

"Black Swan"(Fox Searchlight), Matthew Libatique

"Inception"(Warner Bros.), Wally Pfister

"The King’s Speech"(The Weinstein Company), Danny

Cohen

"The Social Network"(Sony Pictures Releasing), Jeff

Cronenweth

"True Grit"(Paramount), Roger Deakins

And the winner is: True Grit (should win, because

the western never looked better and I love westerns)

ACHIEVEMENT IN COSTUME DESIGN

"Alice in Wonderland" (Walt Disney), Colleen Atwood

"I Am Love" (Magnolia Pictures), Antonella Cannarozzi"The King’s Speech" (The Weinstein Company), Jenny

Beavan

"The Tempest" (Miramax), Sandy Powell

"True Grit" (Paramount), Mary Zophres




And the winner is: Alice in Wonderland (costumes

and sets make up this movie – but not make-up)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE"Exit through the Gift Shop" (Producers Distribution

Agency), A Paranoid Pictures Production, Banksy and

Jaimie D’Cruz

"Gasland", A Gasland Production, Josh Fox and Trish

Adlesic

"Inside Job" (Sony Pictures Classics), A Representational

Pictures Production, Charles Ferguson and Audrey Marrs"Restrepo" (National Geographic Entertainment), An

Outpost Films Production, Tim Hetherington and

Sebastian Junger

"Waste Land"(Arthouse Films), An Almega Projects

Production, Lucy Walker and Angus Aynsley

And the winner is: Exit through the Gift Shop

(because of all the anxiety wondering if Banksy will be his usual no show/hooded man of mystery or accept with

a monkey mask which would be absolutely terrific,

IMHO)

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

"Killing in the Name", A Moxie Firecracker FilmsProduction, Nominees to be determined

"Poster Girl", A Portrayal Films Production, Nominees

to be determined

"Strangers No More", A Simon & Goodman Picture




Company Production, Karen Goodman and Kirk Simon

"Sun Come Up", A Sun Come Up Production, Jennifer

Redfearn and Tim Metzger

"The Warriors of Qiugang", A Thomas Lennon FilmsProduction, Ruby Yang and Thomas Lennon

And the winner is: Got me…(pick the most tragic

story that tugs at your heart)

ACHIEVEMENT IN FILM EDITING

"Black Swan"(Fox Searchlight), Andrew Weisblum"The Fighter"(Paramount), Pamela Martin

"The King’s Speech"(The Weinstein Company), Tariq

Anwar

"127 Hours"(Fox Searchlight), Jon Harris

"The Social Network" (Sony Pictures Releasing), Angus

Wall and Kirk Baxter

And the winner is: The Social Network

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM OF THE YEAR

"Biutiful"(Roadside Attractions), A Menage Atroz, Mod

Producciones and Ikiru Films Production, Mexico

"Dogtooth"(Kino International), A Boo Production,

Greece"In a Better World"(Sony Pictures Classics), A Zentropa

Production, Denmark

"Incendies"(Sony Pictures Classics), A Micro-Scope

Production, Canada




"Outside the Law (Hors-la-loi)"(Cohen Media Group),

A Tassili Films Production, Algeria

And the winner is: Biutiful

ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND EDITING

"Inception"(Warner Bros.),Richard King

"Toy Story 3"(Walt Disney), Tom Myers and Michael

Silvers

"Tron: Legacy"(Walt Disney), Gwendolyn Yates Whittleand Addison Teague

"True Grit"(Paramount), Skip Lievsay and Craig Berkey

"Unstoppable" (20th Century Fox), Mark P. Stoeckinger


ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND MIXING"Inception"(Warner Bros.), Lora Hirschberg, Gary A.

Rizzo and Ed Novick

"The King’s Speech"(The Weinstein Company), Paul

Hamblin, Martin Jensen and John Midgley

"Salt"(Sony Pictures Releasing), Jeffrey J. Haboush, Greg

P. Russell, Scott Millan and William Sarokin

"The Social Network"(Sony Pictures Releasing), Ren

Klyce, David Parker, Michael Semanick and Mark Weingarten

"True Grit" (Paramount), Skip Lievsay, Craig Berkey,

Greg Orloff and Peter F. Kurland





ACHIEVEMENT IN VISUAL EFFECTS"Alice in Wonderland"(Walt Disney), Ken Ralston,

David Schaub, Carey Villegas and Sean Phillips

"Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1"(Warner

Bros.), Tim Burke, John Richardson, Christian Manz and

Nicolas Aithadi

"Hereafter" (Warner Bros.), Michael Owens, Bryan

Grill, Stephan Trojanski and Joe Farrell

"Inception" (Warner Bros.), Paul Franklin, Chris

Corbould, Andrew Lockley and Peter Bebb

"Iron Man 2"(Paramount and Marvel Entertainment,

Distributed by Paramount), Janek Sirrs, Ben Snow, Ged

Wright and Daniel Sudick


ADAPTED SCREENPLAY"127 Hours" (Fox Searchlight), Screenplay by Danny

Boyle & Simon Beaufoy

"The Social Network"(Sony Pictures Releasing),

Screenplay by Aaron Sorkin"Toy Story 3"(Walt Disney), Screenplay by Michael

Arndt, Story by John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton and Lee

Unkrich

"True Grit" (Paramount), Written for the screen by Joel

Coen & Ethan Coen




"Winter’s Bone"(Roadside Attractions), Adapted for the

screen by Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini

And the winner is: The Social Network, AaronSorkin

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

"Another Year"(Sony Pictures Classics), Written by

Mike Leigh

"The Fighter"(Paramount), Screenplay by Scott Silverand Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson, Story by Keith

Dorrington & Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson

"Inception"(Warner Bros.), Written by Christopher Nolan

"The Kids Are All Right"(Focus Features), Written by

Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg

"The King’s Speech"(The Weinstein Company),

Screenplay by David Seidler

And the winner is: The King’s S peech

ACHIEVEMENT IN MAKEUP

"Barney’s Version"(Sony Pictures Classics), Adrien

Morot"The Way Back"(Newmarket Films in association with

Wrekin Hill Entertainment and Image Entertainment),

Edouard F. Henriques, Gregory Funk and Yolanda

Toussieng

"The Wolfman"(Universal), Rick Baker and Dave Elsey




And the winner is: Barney’ s Version (because it’ s

a Canadian story)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE"How to Train Your Dragon"(Paramount), John Powell

"Inception"(Warner Bros.), Hans Zimmer

"The King’s Speech"(The Weinstein Company),

Alexandre Desplat

"127 Hours" (Fox Searchlight), A.R. Rahman

"The Social Network"(Sony Pictures Releasing), Trent

Reznor and Atticus Ross

And the winner is: The Social Network (the music

rocked in this film)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

"Coming Home" from "Country Strong" (Sony Pictures

Releasing (Screen Gems)), Music and Lyric by Tom

Douglas, Troy Verges and Hillary Lindsey

"I See the Light" from "Tangled" (Walt Disney), Music

by Alan Menken, Lyric by Glenn Slater

"If I Rise" from "127 Hours" (Fox Searchlight), Music by

A.R. Rahman, Lyric by Dido and Rollo Armstrong

"We Belong Together" from "Toy Story 3" (Walt

Disney), Music and Lyric by Randy Newman

And the winner is: Who cares? (This is such a

lame category – but I liked Randy Newman back in the

1970’ s))




BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM

"Day & Night" (Walt Disney), A Pixar Animation

Studios Production, Teddy Newton

"The Gruffalo", A Magic Light Pictures Production,Jakob Schuh and Max Lang

"Let’s Pollute", A Geefwee Boedoe Production, Geefwee

Boedoe

"The Lost Thing", (Nick Batzias for Madman

Entertainment), A Passion Pictures Australia Production,

Shaun Tan and Andrew Ruhemann

"Madagascar, carnet de voyage (Madagascar, a

Journey Diary)", A Sacrebleu Production, BastienDubois

And the winner is: Day & Night

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM

"The Confession" (National Film and Television School),A National Film and Television School Production, Tanel

Toom

"The Crush"(Network Ireland Television), A Purdy

Pictures Production, Michael Creagh

"God of Love", A Luke Matheny Production, Luke

Matheny

"Na Wewe"(Premium Films), A CUT! Production, Ivan

Goldschmidt"Wish 143", A Swing and Shift Films/Union Pictures

Production, Ian Barnes and Samantha Waite




And the winner is: Na Wewe, (take your pick here,

but vote for a movie with kids and death and guns and

tragedy, if possible get all of them in one movie)

So, there you have it. Place your bets, grab your popcorn

and enjoy the greatest worst show on earth!

Craig Forgrave

(MarketBOB) For all my books and writing

projects, drop by my writer site

http://www.cforgrave.com/ and my home base for terrific

ideas at http://ideariffic.com/ For the latest analysis of

movies and how they make us feel, go to

http://www.marketbob.com/ and read a free excerpt from

my book on Amazon Kindle.

http://www.cforgrave.com/


http://ideariffic.com/



http://www.marketbob.com/


http://www.amazon.com/Movies-Love-Times-Depression-ebook/dp/B003U2TGEQ/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&m=AZC9TZ4UC9CFC&s=books&qid=1295084227&sr=8-2







marketbob's oscar predictions 2011

Documents