market situation cereals mer… · eu ms exporting wheat 2011/12 & 5 average my average eu...

Market situationCereals

AGRI C 5Advisory Group on Cereals, Oilseeds and Proteins

30 March 2012

2

World cereal balance : IGC

303

373404

373

121159 172

137 131 (130)

378 (369)

1802 1799

1699

1841 (1830)

1753

1678

1768

1731

1836 (1831)

1784

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

2007 2008 2009 2010 est 2011 fcst

mio

t

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1850

1900

mio

t

World Ending Stocksof which 8 major exportersWorld ProductionWorld Consumption

Source: IGC Feb. report

3

World cereal prices since 30 August 2011 ($/t)

225

245

265

285

305

325

30/08

/2011

6/09/2

011

13/09

/2011

20/09

/2011

27/09

/2011

4/10/2

011

11/10

/2011

18/10

/2011

25/10

/2011

1/11/2

011

8/11/2

011

15/11

/2011

22/11

/2011

29/11

/2011

6/12/2

011

13/12

/2011

20/12

/2011

27/12

/2011

3/01/2

012

10/01

/2012

17/01

/2012

24/01

/2012

31/01

/2012

7/02/2

012

14/02

/2012

21/02

/2012

28/02

/2012

6/03/2

012

13/03

/2012

20/03

/2012

27/03

/2012

quot

atio

n in

$ /

tonn

e

Wheat - Black Sea Milling - $ 275 Wheat - US SRW Gulf - $ 259 Wheat - FR Rouen - $ 281Maize - US 3YC Gulf - $ 274 Maize - FR Bordeaux - $ 282 Barley - FR Dlvd Rouen feed - $ 281

4

World wheat balance sheet: IGC

132

172199 196

4769 77 71 76 (74)

211 (204)

607

685678

653

695 (690)

602

645651 656

681 (681)

0

100

200

300

400

500

2007 2008 2009 2010 est 2011 fcst

mio

t

520

540

560

580

600

620

640

660

680

700

720

mio

t



5

IGC: Wheat production forecastAll wheat

138

56 54

29 25 22 2314

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0

EU Russia USA Australia Canada Ukraine Kazakhstan Argentina

Mt

2009 2010 (est.) 2011 (fcst.) Source: IGC Feb. report

6

Wheat export prices since 1/1/2007

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

01/20

0704

/2007

07/20

0710

/2007

01/20

0804

/2008

07/20

0810

/2008

01/20

0904

/2009

07/20

0910

/2009

01/20

1004

/2010

07/20

1010

/2010

01/20

1104

/2011

07/20

1110

/2011

01/20

12

quot

atio

n in

€ o

r $

/ ton

ne

Wheat - Canada CWRS St Lawrence - $ 366 Wheat - US HRW Gulf - $ 292Wheat - US SRW Gulf - $ 259 Wheat - Australia ASW Eastern States - $ 248Wheat - Argentina Trigo Up River - $ 258 Wheat - Black Sea Milling - $ 275Wheat - Black Sea Feed - $ 255

7

EU wheat export commitments 2011/12

0

4

8

12

16

20

Mill

ion

tonn

es

2010/2011 Average 5MY trimmed avg 5MY 2011/2012

AVERAGE 5MY

TRIMMED AVERAGE 5MY

MY 2010/11

MY 2011/12

WHEAT CUMULATED EXP

8

EU wheat import commitments 2011/12

0

2

4

6

Mill

ion

tonn

es

Soft wheat 2011/12 Soft wheat 2010/11 soft wheat average 5MY soft wheat trimmed average

AVERAGE 5MY

TRIMMED AVERAGE 5MY

MY 2011/12

MY 2010/11

WHEAT CUMULATED IMP

9

EU wheat exporting MS and destinationsMain EU-27 Common Wheat (incl. flour groats, ...) exporters and destination countries

6 months of marketing year 2011/12: 8.3 mio t

00.20.40.60.8

11.21.41.61.8

22.22.42.6

France 66% Germany 13% Romania 7% Lithuania 3% Utd. Kingdom 2% Spain 2%

mio

t

Algeria Morocco Saudi Arabia Angola Egypt Sudan Cuba OthersSource:Eurostat

10

EU wheat exporting MS and destinationsMain EU-27 Common Wheat (incl. flour groats, ...) exporters and destination countries

Average for 6 months of marketing years 2006-10: 8.3 mio t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

France 51% Germany 20% Romania 7% Hungary 4% Bulgaria 4% Poland 3%

mio

t

Algeria Morocco Egypt Libya Iran South Africa Yemen OthersSource:Eurostat

11

EU MS exporting wheat2011/12 & 5 average MY

Average EU Common Wheat exports by Member State (incl. flour, groats …)

6 months of marketing years 2006-10: 8.8 mio t

France 50%

Germany 20%

Romania 7%

Hungary 4%

Bulgaria 4%

Poland 3%

Lithuania 3%

Latvia 2%

Belgium 2%

Others 5%

Source: Eurostat

EU Common Wheat exports by Member State (incl. flour, groats …) 6 months of marketing year 2011-12: 8.3 mio t

France 65%

Hungary 2%Latvia 1% Belgium 1%

Utd. Kingdom 2%

Spain 2%

Germany 13%

Lithuania 3%

Romania 7%

Others 3%

Bulgaria 1%

Source: Eurostat

12

EU wheat export destinations

EU Common Wheat (incl. flour, groats ... ) export destinations6 months of marketing years 2006-10: 8.8 mio t

Algeria 18%

Morocco 10%

Egypt 9%

Libya 4%

Iran 4%

South Africa 3%

Yemen 3%Angola 3%

India 2%

Pakistan 2%

Senegal 2%

Others 34%

Ivory Coast 2%

Tunisia 2%

Cameroon 2%

Source: Eurostat

EU Common Wheat (incl. flour, groats ... ) export destinations6 months of marketing year 2011-12: 8.3 mio t

Algeria 30%

Morocco 12%

Egypt 4%

South Africa 2%

Ivory Coast 2%

Others 23%

Syria 2%

Libya 2%Senegal 2%Cameroon 2%

Norway 2%

Cuba 3%

Sudan 3%

Saudi Arabia 7%

Angola 4%Source: Eurostat

13

EU MS importing wheatEU Soft Wheat Imports by MS

Average from 6 months of marketing years 2006-10: 2.5 mio t

Spain 40%

Italy 25%

Portugal 3%

Belgium 5%

Greece 8%

Utd. Kingdom 12%

Romania 2%

Others 5%

Source: Eurostat

EU Soft Wheat Imports by MS6 months of marketing year 2011-12: 3 mio t

Spain 43%

Italy 28%

Netherlands 5%

Portugal 6%

Greece 6%

Utd. Kingdom 7%

Belgium 2%

Poland 1%

Others 2%

Source: Eurostat

14

EU wheat imports originsEU Soft Wheat Import Origins

Average from 6 months of marketing years 2006-10: 2.5 mio t

Ukraine 33%

USA 23%

Canada 19%

Russia 15%

Kazakhstan 4%

Croatia 3%

Serbia 2%

Others 1%

Source: Eurostat

EU Soft Wheat Import Origins6 months of marketing year 2011-12: 3 mio t

Ukraine 40%

Russia 35%

Canada 10%

USA 9%

Serbia 3%

Kazakhstan 2%

Others 1%

Source: Eurostat

15

World durum wheat balance: IGC

1.7

3.6

4.9

3.1

0.9

1.9

2.7

1.61.3 (1.2)

2.3 (2.3)

35

39

41

35

3738 38

38

36 (36)

37 (37)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2007 2008 2009 2010 est 2011 fcst

mio

t

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

mio

t

3 Major exporters StocksCanadaWorld ProductionWorld Consumption


16

World durum wheat prices since 01/2007

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

01/20

0704

/2007

07/20

0710

/2007

01/20

0804

/2008

07/20

0810

/2008

01/20

0904

/2009

07/20

0910

/2009

01/20

1004

/2010

07/20

1010

/2010

01/20

1104

/2011

07/20

1110

/2011

01/20

1204

/2012

quot

atio

n in

€ o

r $ /

tonn

e

Durum - US Minneapolis HADW - € 277 (20/3/2012) Durum - FR Port-La-Nouvelle - € 267Durum - IT Bologna - € 276 Durum - ES Average - € 267Wheat - FR Rouen - € 211

17

EU durum imports originsEU Durum Wheat Import Origins

Average for 6 months of marketing years 2006-10: 1 mio t

Canada 46%

USA 22%

Mexico 17%

Syria 4%

Kazakhstan 3%

Turkey 2%

Others 6% 0%

Source: Eurostat

EU Durum Wheat Import Origins6 months of marketing year 2011-12: 1 mio t

Canada 64%

USA 16%

Kazakhstan 1%Others 1%

Russia 1%

Argentina 3%

Mexico 5%

Australia 9%

Source: Eurostat

18

EU MS exporting durum wheatEU Durum Wheat Exports by MS


France 46%

Italy 22%

Spain 16%

Greece 10%

Hungary 1%

Cyprus 1% Belgium 1%

Others 1%

Bulgaria 2%

Source: Eurostat

EU Durum Wheat Exports by MS6 months of marketing year 2011-12: 0.8 mio t

France 64.5%Italy 22.5%

Austria 0.4%

Hungary 0.5%

Greece 1.2%

Spain 10.0%

Cyprus 0.4%Slovenia 0.2%

Others 0.2%

Source: Eurostat

19

World barley balance sheet: IGC

26

34

40

29

713

18

11 10 (9)

27 (26)

133

155

150

124

146 145

135135 (134)

135136 (136)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2007 2008 2009 2010 est 2011 fcst

mio

t

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

mio

t

World Ending StocksEU ending stocksWorld ProductionWorld Consumption


20

Barley prices since 01/2007

75

125

175

225

275

325

01/20

0704

/2007

07/20

0710

/2007

01/20

0804

/2008

07/20

0810

/2008

01/20

0904

/2009

07/20

0910

/2009

01/20

1004

/2010

07/20

1010

/2010

01/20

1104

/2011

07/20

1110

/2011

01/20

12

quot

atio

n in

€ o

r $ /

tonn

e

Barley - FR Dlvd Rouen feed - € 210 Barley - UK FOB London feed - € no quotation Barley - FI Dlvd Naantali feed - € 169 Barley - Black Sea feed FOB - € 199Barley - FR Dlvd Rouen malting - € 247

21

EU barley export commitments 2011/12

0

1

2

3

4

5

Mill

ion

tonn

es

2011/2012 2010/2011 Average 5MY trimmed avg 5MY

AVERAGE 5MY

TRIMMED AVERAGE

MY 2010/11

MY 2011/12

BARLEY CUMULATED EXP

22

EU barley exporting MSEU Barley and Malt Exports by Member State


Germany 20%

Belgium 19%

Romania 7%

Estonia 1%

Bulgaria 3%

Lithuania 3%

Denmark 4%

France 23%

Czech Republic 1%Hungary 1%

Sweden 2%

Finland 2%

Spain 4%

Utd. Kingdom 4%

Netherlands 4%

Others 2%

Source: Eurostat

EU Barley and Malt Exports by Member State6 months of marketing year 2011-12: 3.5 mio t

Romania 15%

Germany 15%

Belgium 14%

Netherlands 3%Lithuania 3%

Utd. Kingdom 5%

Hungary 2%Finland 2%

Estonia 1%Others 3%

France 25%

Denmark 7%

Sweden 2%

Bulgaria 3%

Source: Eurostat

23

EU barley export destinations

EU Barley and Malt Export DestinationsAverage for 6 months of marketing years 2006-10: 3.5 mio t

Saudi Arabia 33%

Tunisia 5%

Venezuela 5%

Brazil 5%Japan 4%

China 4%

Jordan 4%

Morocco 3%

Russia 3%

Algeria 2%

Syria 2%

Others 30%

Source: Eurostat

EU Barley and Malt Export Destinations6 months of marketing year 2011-12: 3.5 mio t

Saudi Arabia 34%

Algeria 9%

Russia 5%

Jordan 4%

Morocco 4%Venezuela 3%Japan 3%

Vietnam 3%Brazil 3%

Tunisia 3%

China 2%Nigeria 2%

Others 25%

Source: Eurostat

24

World maize balance sheet: IGC

134150 148

133

41 43 4329 20 (21)

126 (125)

797 800

820

779784

821

864 (861)

828

871 (867)

844

0

100

200

300

400

500

2007 2008 2009 2010 est 2011 fcst

mio

t

700

720

740

760

780

800

820

840

860

880

mio

t

World Ending Stocksof which USWorld ProductionWorld Consumption


25

IGC: maize production forecast

Maize

314

65 5823 23

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

USA EU Brazil Argentine Ukraine

Mio

t

2007 2008 2009 2010 (est.) 2011 (fcst.) Source: IGC Feb. report

26

Maize export prices since 1/1/2007

125

175

225

275

325

01/20

0704

/2007

07/20

0710

/2007

01/20

0804

/2008

07/20

0810

/2008

01/20

0904

/2009

07/20

0910

/2009

01/20

1004

/2010

07/20

1010

/2010

01/20

1104

/2011

07/20

1110

/2011

01/20

1204

/2012

quot

atio

n in

€ o

r $ /

tonn

e

Maize - US 3YC Gulf - $ 274 Maize - Argentina Feed Up River - $ 260Maize - Brazil Feed Paranagua - $ 258 Maize - Black Sea Feed - $ 270

27

EU Maize import commitments 2011/12

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Mill

ion

tonn

es

Maize other than seed 2011/12 Maize other than seed 2010/11

Maize other than seed average 5MY Maize other than seed - Trimmed Average

AVERAGE 5MY

TRIMMED AVERAGE 5MY

MY 2010/11

MY 2011/12

MAIZE CUMULATED IMP

28

EU MS importing maizeMaize Imports (incl. processed products) by Member StateAverage for 6 months of marketing years 2006-10: 3.4 mio t

Spain 45%

Portugal 14%

Netherlands 9%

Italy 6%

Romania 2%

Slovenia 1%

Greece 2%

Belgium 2%

France 3%

Germany 4%

Cyprus 1%Bulgaria 1% Ireland 1%

Poland 1%

Others 2%

Utd. Kingdom 6%

Source: Eurostat

Maize Imports (incl. processed products) by Member State6 months of marketing year 2011-12: 2.5 mio t

Spain 36%

Portugal 20%

Netherlands 17%

Ireland 1% Romania 1%Others 2%

Germany 1%

Belgium 1%

Slovenia 3%

Utd. Kingdom 4%

Greece 4%

Italy 8%

Cyprus 1%

Poland 1%

Source: Eurostat

29

EU maize imports originsMaize (incl. processed products) - Origin of EU Imports


Brazil 55%

Argentina 20%

Serbia 9%

Ukraine 6%

Paraguay 4%

USA 2%

Croatia 2%

Others 2%

Source: Eurostat

Maize (incl. processed products) - Origin of EU Imports6 months of marketing year 2011-12: 2.5 mio t

Ukraine 44%

USA 19%

Russia 10%

Argentina 9%

Serbia 8%

Brazil 5%

Croatia 2%

South Africa 1% Others 2%

Source: Eurostat

30

EU maize importing MS and originsMaize (incl. processed products)

Main EU Importers and Country of Origin 6 months of marketing year 2011/12: 2.5 mio t

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Spain 37% Portugal 20% Netherlands 17% Italy 8% Greece 4% Utd. Kingdom 4%

1000

t

Ukraine USA Russia Argentina Serbia Brazil Croatia Others

Source:Eurostat

31

EU Commitments 2011/2012 (39 weeks)

Imports: 9.5 mio t (10.4 mio t in 2010/11; 6.3 mio t 2 years ago)4.9 mio t soft wheat 1.1 mio t durum wheat3.9 mio t maize 407 000 t barley

Exports: 17.6 mio t (21.2 mio t last year; 15.9 mio t 2 years ago)10.4 mio t soft wheat2.6 mio t barley in grain1.0 mio t durum wheat2.3 mio t maize

So far, the EU is a net cereal exporter of 8.1 mio t, against 10.8 miot last year and 9.6 mio t in 2009/2010.

Thank you for your attention!Balance sheet updates & market presentation

available:http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/cereals/balanc

e-sheets/index_en.htm

33

World wheat balance: USDA

121

167

202 199

3248 58 54 55 (54)

210 (213)610

682 686

652

694 (693)

617

641650 654

684 (680)

0

100

200

300

400

500

2007 2008 2009 2010 est 2011 fcst

mio

t

540

560

580

600

620

640

660

680

700

720

mio

t


Source: USDA Mar. report

34

Wheat balance USDA vs. IGC (1)

641

650

678

645

651

682

686694

652

610

684

617

654

685

695

653

607

681

602

656

600

610

620

630

640

650

660

670

680

690

700

2007 2008 2009 2010 est 2011 fcst

Mio

t

USDA World Production USDA World Consumption IGC World Production IGC World Consumption



35

Wheat balance USDA vs. IGC (2)

199210

132

199

78 74 79

47

69

202

167

121

172

196

211

38

60

7771 76

0

50

100

150

200

250

2007 2008 2009 2010 est 2011 fcst

Mio

t

USDA World Stocks IGC World Stocks USDA 8 major exporters IGC 8 major exporters



36

USDA: Wheat production forecast

All wheat

137

56 54

30 25 23 2215

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0

EU Russia USA Australia Canada Kazakhstan Ukraine Argentina

Mt

2009 2010 est 2011 fcst Source: USDA Mar. report

37

World maize balance: USDA

129149 144

129

41 43 4329 20 (20)

125 (125)

792799

819

771782

823

865 (864)

829

869 (868)

844

0

100

200

300

400

500

2007 2008 2009 2010 est 2011 fcst

mio

t

700

720

740

760

780

800

820

840

860

880

900

mio

t

World Ending Stocksof which USWorld ProductionWorld Consumption


38

USDA: maize production forecast

Maize

314

65 6223 22

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

USA EU Brazil Ukraine Argentine

Mio

t

2007 2008 2009 2010 est 2011 fcst


39

EU MS importing durumEU Durum Wheat Imports by MS

Average for 6 months of marketing years 2006-10: 1 mio t

Italy 76%

Belgium 11%

Netherlands 6%

Spain 2%

Germany 2%

Portugal 1%Poland 1%

Greece 1%

Source: Eurostat

EU Durum Wheat Imports by MS6 months of marketing year 2011-12: 1 mio t

Italy 81.3%

Belgium 10.9%

Utd. Kingdom 0.4%

Poland 0.4%

Netherlands 1.5%

Germany 5.1%

Greece 0.3%Others 0.1%

Source: Eurostat

40

EU durum export destinationsEU Durum Wheat export destinations


Algeria 36%

Tunisia 25%

Ivory Coast 7%

Turkey 5%

Saudi Arabia 3%

Senegal 3%

Mauritania 2%

Nigeria 2%

Others 17%

Source: Eurostat

EU Durum Wheat export destinations6 months of marketing year 2011-12: 0.8 mio t

Algeria 46%

Morocco 18%

Others 8%Croatia 1%

Senegal 1%

Nigeria 1%

Mauritania 1%

Switzerland 1%Ivory Coast 8%

Tunisia 15%

Source: Eurostat

41

Barley EU exporting MS and destinationsMain EU-27 Barley and Malt Exporters and Countries of Destination

6 months of marketing year 2011/12: 3.5 mio t

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

France 24% Romania 15% Germany 15% Belgium 14% Denmark 7% Utd. Kingdom 5%

1000

t

Saudi Arabia Algeria Russia Jordan Morocco Venezuela Japan Others

Source:Eurostat

42

Barley EU exporting MS and destinationsMain EU-27 Barley and Malt Exporters and Countries of Destination


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

France 22% Germany 19% Belgium 19% Romania 7% Denmark 4% Spain 4%

1000

t

Saudi Arabia Tunisia Venezuela Brazil Japan China Jordan Others

Source:Eurostat

43

US SRW wheat futures

44

CME wheat: open interest and net position of traders since 01/2011

WHEAT - CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

4/01/2

01118

/01/201

11/0

2/2011

15/02

/2011

1/03/2

01115

/03/201

129

/03/201

112

/04/201

126

/04/201

110

/05/201

124

/05/201

17/0

6/2011

21/06

/2011

5/07/2

01119

/07/201

12/0

8/2011

16/08

/2011

30/08

/2011

13/09

/2011

27/09

/2011

11/10

/2011

25/10

/2011

8/11/2

01122

/11/201

16/1

2/2011

20/12

/2011

3/01/2

01217

/01/201

231

/01/201

214

/02/201

228

/02/201

2

Mill

ions

of c

ontr

acts

(136

met

ric to

nnes

)

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

Thou

sand

s of

con

trac

ts (o

f 136

met

ric to

nnes

)

Open Interest

Managed money and other rep. -Net positions

45

EU Milling Wheat Futures since 11/2010

46

CME maize futures since 01/2010

47

CME maize: open interest and positions of traders since 01/2011

CORN - CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

4/01/2

01118

/01/201

11/0

2/2011

15/02

/2011

1/03/2

01115

/03/201

129

/03/201

112

/04/201

126

/04/201

110

/05/201

124

/05/201

17/0

6/2011

21/06

/2011

5/07/2

01119

/07/201

12/0

8/2011

16/08

/2011

30/08

/2011

13/09

/2011

27/09

/2011

11/10

/2011

25/10

/2011

8/11/2

01122

/11/201

16/1

2/2011

20/12

/2011

3/01/2

01217

/01/201

231

/01/201

214

/02/201

228

/02/201

2

Mill

ions

of c

ontr

acts

(127

met

ric to

nnes

)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Thou

sand

s of

con

trac

ts (o

f 127

met

ric to

nnes

)

Open Interest

Managed money and other rep. -Net positions

48

EU maize futures since 01/2011

market situation cereals mer… · eu ms exporting wheat 2011/12 & 5 average my average eu...

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