market report russia

Reinhard E. Dpfer Chairman of European Fashion and Textile Export Council

(EFTEC)

CLOTHING MARKET REPORT RUSSIA 2013

The competitive Environment of the Russian Market of Textile Clothing & Accessories in Autumn 2013

Presentation held on Thursday, September 5, 2013, 11:00 a.m. at the Press Lounge, Mezzanine Floor of Pavilion 8/1

Krasnaya Presnya Expocentr, Moscow

TABLE OF CONTENT 1. CPM celebrating its 10th anniversary Development of the Russian Retail Market Value of Apparel from 2003 till 2012 2. Benchmark of the Development of Apparel Exports from EU-27, China, Italy, Germany and France to Russia since Crisis Year 2009 till 2012, 2013p 3. Variation of Shares of main Product Categories of Mens Wear, Womens Wear and Intimate Apparel against EU-27 total Subsector Exports, Comparison 2012 against Crisis Year 2009 4. Changes in Consumer Behavior: Less Money spent on Clothing 5. EFTEC-Estimate on Development Tendencies of the main six Clothing Retail Channels of Apparel 6. Projection of the Russian Market Pyramid of Apparel 7. Persistent ERP, CRM & HRM Deficits in Russian independent multi-brand Retail: Lack of know-how 8. Growth Prospects in the Russian Regions through Shopping Mall Development 9. Market Access Conditions for imported Apparel remaining difficult 10. Macro-Economic Review & Outlook on Russia

VITA OF THE AUTHOR _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

VITA OF THE AUTHOR Reinhard E. Dpfer a master of Macro-Economics who graduated at University of Gttingen, Germany, is an expert In international trade of textile and clothing having set a focus on international export marketing over a period of more than 30 years. At present he works in several leading positions as Chairman of the European Fashion and Textile Export Council (EFTEC) founded in Brussels as an export promotion organisation for the European Industry in 1987, as Managing Partner of ITMM GmbH, International Textile Marketing and Management Consultancy, Stuttgart, as Senior Export Strategy Consultant to the German Fashion Association, Cologne and as Senior Strategy Advisor to Igedo Company for the development of CPM. His expertise on the Russian textile and fashion Market goes back to the year 1989 when he organized the first direct sales show of apparel to the Russian public in St. Petersburg, right at the beginning of introduction of market economy in Russia. He was a co-founder of the first specialized fashion trade fair launched by Crocus International in fall 1994 under the title of Moda Moscow and accompanied this exhibition permanently as European co-ordinator and senior strategy advisor until spring 2003. When Collection Premiere Moscow (CPM) was founded by Igedo as a successor to Moda Moscow in fall 2003, Reinhard E. Dpfer took responsibility for market research and strategic development of all consecutive events of this trade show up till the present 21st

edition. In the framework of his cooperation with Igedo Company, he published market research studies on the Russian Lingerie & Legwear Market, the Russian Men's Wear market, the mid-to-long term development of the Russian Women's Wear, Men's Wear, Lingerie, Hosiery and Active Wear markets. In April 2007 he founded "Task Force Fashion Market Russia", a group of 30 leading German fashion brands meeting bi-annually to exchange experience on key issues of retail and distribution of fashion in Russia and the CIS Markets. Since July 2009 he is editorin-chief of the bi-mensual market monitor The Russian/CIS Fashion Retail Market published and circulated by Igedo as a free marketing support tool for CPM exhibitors.

1. Development of the Russian Retail Market Value of textile Clothing & Accessories (HS Codes Chapters 61 & 62) 2003-2012, 2013-2015 projection, in 1.000 Million

Source/Copyright: EFTEC

1

.00

0 m

n.

3

PRESS DOSSIER 21st CPM, Moscow, SEPTEMBER 4-7, 2013 _____________________________________________________________________________________________________

3,0

4,0

37,4

38,2

27,4 29,1

32 33

35

42

46

0

10

20

30

40

50

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

CPM Take Off 2003

China Market Entry 2004

Boom Phase

Financial Crisis

Organic Growth Phase of nominally 10 % p.a.

4


2. Development of Exports of textile Apparel and Accessories from EU-27 and China to Russia at ex-works prices in Million , 2008 till 2012, 2013/2014 p

2.778

3.105

2.198 2.242

2.734

3.017

3.300

3.630 3.815

1.690

2.570

3.057

3.314

3.645

4.000

0

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

EU-27

China

mn.

Source Eu-27: EuroStat/C.I.T.H. Source China: UnComTrade ECB average annual currency exchange rates against US $

2.1. Benchmark of the Development of Exports of textile Clothing & Accessories from the three leading EU-Supplier Nations to Russia, Comparison Year 2013p to Peak Year 2008

mn.

5 Source/Copyright: EFTEC


3.105 (+ 12%)

2.199 (-29%)

2.242 (+ 2%) 2.734 (+ 22%)

3.017(+ 10%) 3.300 (+ 9 %)

1.312 (+ 9%)

901 (- 31%)

897 (- 1%) 1.040 (+ 16%)

1.144 (+ 10%)

1.318(+ 10%)

757 (+ 8%)

536 (- 29%) 481(- 11%)

571(+ 19%) 659 (+ 15 %)

725 (+ 10%)

277 (+ 4 %) 189 (- 32 %)

173 (- 9 %) 198 (+ 9%) 210 (+ 6 %)

215(+ 2%)

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

EU-27

Italy

Germany

France

p

2.2. Benchmark of the Development of Exports of textile Clothing & Accessories from eight leading EU-Supplier Nations to Russia, Comparison Year 2012 to Peak Year 2009

6 Source/Copyright: EFTEC


901

536

189

83 119

69 24 50

1.144 (+27 %)

659 (+ 23%)

197 (+ 4 %) 182 (+ 119%) 178 (+ 50%)

124 (+ 80 %) 110 (+ 358 %) 106 (+ 112%)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

Italy Germany France Spain Lithuania U.K. Latvia Finland

2009

2012

mill

ion

3.1. Share of main Product Categories of Mens and Boys knitted and woven Outerwear against total EU-27 Mens and Boys Outerwear Exports to Russia, Comparison Year 2012 against Crisis Year 2009

7


Trousers 24%

Outdoor Jackets & Coats 16% Suits 15%

Sweaters & Cardigans

11%

Denim Trousers

9,6%

Business Shirts 9,50%

Indoor Jackets 6,3 %

Polo Shirts 2,0%

Other Men's Wear 6,6%

502,6 Million

Source/ Copyright: EFTEC, * average annual growth over three years since 2009 = 16,3 %

2009 2012

740,1 Million (+ 49 %) *

Trousers (excl.Denim)

26,5%

Outdoor Jackets

& Coats 15,3%

Suits 11,2%

Denim Trousers 9,4%

Sweaters/ Cardigans

10%

Business Shirts 10%

Indoor Jackets 6%

Polo-Shirts 2,6%

Other Men's Wear 9%

Source/ Copyright: EFTEC, average annual growth over three years since 2009: 12,3 %

1.107 Million 1.522 Million (+ 37%) *

2009 2012

8

3.2. Share of main Product Categories of Womens and Girls knitted and woven Outerwear against total EU-27 Womens and Girls Outerwear Exports to Russia, Comparison Year 2012p against Crisis Year 2009, in mn.

Other Women's

Wear 16,0 %

Trousers 17,3%

Sweaters/ Cardigans

15,7%

Costumes 15,40%

Dresses 12,5%

Outdoor Jackets/Coats

11,4%

Blouses 8,4%

Denim Trousers

3,30%


Other Women's Wear 16%

Trousers 15,1%

Sweaters/ Cardigans 12,4%

Costumes 16,1%

Dresses 18,8%

Outdoor Jackets/Coats

10,6%

Blouses 8%

Denim Trousers 3,1%

9

3.3. Shares of main Product Categories of Intimate Apparel against total EU-27 Intimate Apparel Exports to Russia, Comparison between Year 2012p and Year 2009

Source/Copyright: EFTEC, average annual growth over three years since 2009: 7,3 %

2009 2012

343,5 Million 418,6 Million (+ 22 %)*


Tights 42,8% Day Underwear for females

15,3%

Brassieres, Corsetry,

Shapewear 15,2%

Swimwear for females and males

9,7%

Homewear/ Bathrobes for females and males

7,2%

Day Underwear for males

6,7%

Other Underwear (Nightwear)

3,1%

Tights fell from 42,8 % to 24,8 %

Day Underwear for females

increased from 15,3 % to

26 %

Brassieres, Corsetry & Shapewear

increased from 15,2 % to 22,4 %

Swimwear for females and males

increased from 9,7 % to 9,8 %

Day Underwear for males

increased from 6,7 % to 9 %

Homewear/ Bathrobes for

females & males fell from 7,2% to

3,7 %

Nightwear fell from 6,7 % to

4,5 %

10

4. Changes in Consumer Behavior: Less Money spent on Clothing

Dramatic Changes in consumer behavior for Clothing: now rational against past emotional What is the fair price for a piece of garment? Price-Quality awareness rising Clothing and brands do not confer status anymore, replaced by iphones, ipads, handbags, jewelry Purchasing decisions get delayed until the discount phases: the smart shopper conquers retail Shopping of Premium and Luxury clothing transferred to foreign destinations: half price saving

opportunities Online-purchases from international and national e-commerce platforms keep surging

2011 Share of Income Class in Percent

2012

Share Income Class in Percent Period/Income Class in Rubles

1st Semester

9 months

Year 2011

1st Quarter

1st Semester

Total Working Population 100 mn. 100 mn. 100 mn. 100 mn. 100 mn.

up to 3500.0 3,1 3,1 2,8 2,9 2,7

3.500,1-5.000,0 5,2 5,0 4,6 5,0 4,5

5.000,1-7.000,0 9,1 8,9 8,1 8,9 8,2

7.000,1-10.000,0 14,8 14,4 13,5 14,6 13,7

10.000,1-15.000,0 21,0 20,5 19,8 21,0 20,2

15.000,1-25.000,0 24,5 24,5 24,8 24,8 25,0

25.000,1-35.000,0 11,0 11,3 12,1 11,2 12,0

Over 35.000,0 11,3 12,3 14,3 11,6 13,7

Distribution of monthly average per capita income in the Russian Federation 2012/2011, in Percent of Working Population


11

5. EFTEC-Estimate on the Development Tendencies of the main six clothing Retail Channels in Russia, Projection 2013 Projection on Categorization of Retail Channels, Price Level, Market Share, numbers of operating P.O.S. and Development Tendency at Year-End 2012, based on a textile Clothing Retail Market Value of 35.000 Million

Category Price Level

Market Share P.O.S. Numbers Estimate

Tendency

Open Markets, Mass Market, Trade Centers and Kiosks Low 20 % > 3.500

Multi-Label mixed apparel discount stores and hypermarkets METRO, REAL, MARKTKAUF and Russian Discounters, Russian low budget casual wear and family clothing chains like SELA, new: TAKKO FASHION

Lower medium

19 % > 2.000

Mono-Brand affiliated apparel retail chains, foreign and domestic (ZARA, H&M, MANGO, BENETTON, RESERVED, NAF NAF, OLSEN, NEW YORKER, TVOE, OODJI, GLANCE, INCITY, SAVAGE, BAON, OSTIN, GLOOM, MODIS, BEEFREE/ZARINA, VESH)

Lower- Medium-

To-Medium

24 % > 5.000 (thereof 1.000

foreign)

Multi-Brand affiliated retail chains and Department Stores (HOLDING CENTER, LADY & GENTLEMAN CITY,PODIUM, FASHION CONTINENT, SNOW QUEEN, MODAMO, MOSKOVSKIY, PROKOVSKIY, MARKS+ SPENCER, new: DEBENHAMS) (GUM, TSUM, LEIPZIG, VESNA, CALIGULA)

Medium - to -

Upper -medium

premium

- to - luxury

15 %

8 %

> 600

Independent privately owned multi brand specialty shops & boutiques, smaller regional chains

Upper - medium

12 % > 3.000

Distance Retail, Mail Order Catalogues and B2C online retail (Otto Group, KupiVIP, lamoda.ru, wildberries)

medium 2 % > 15

Source/ Copyright: EFTEC

PRESS DOSSIER 20th CPM, Moscow, FEBRUARY 26 MARCH 1, 2013 _____________________________________________________________________________________________________

12

5.1. Retail Channel Russian monobrand affiliated Clothing Chains: Tremendous Growth of Store Networks in the lower medium-to-medium priced Russian Clothing Market

Number of Store Expansion of Russian Store Networks Source: Fashion Consulting Group (FCG), Moscow


38

0

62

25

0

53

6

12

5

80

21

9

12

0

18

2

26

53

18

6

82

34

16

1

48

0

81

30

42

0

17

9

30

0

56

0

28

7

22

2

29

8

18

0

26

0

71

12

3

21

6

14

2

10

3

19

8

54

70

11

0

55

52

5

49

4

47

9

46

2

38

8

35

3

33

0

30

2

23

9

18

0

17

4

17

3

17

3

14

8

12

3

12

0

11

6

11

4

46

2007 2010 2012

13

5.2. Retail Channel International monobrand affiliated Clothing Chains: Moderate Growth of Store Networks in the medium priced Russian Clothing Market

Number of Store Expansion of International Store Networks in Russia Source: Fashion Consulting Group (FCG), Moscow


10

0

51

11

4

43

31

72

0

15

0

13

0

0

26

0

0

0

0

0

13

8

63

15

3

52

39

64

30

26

29

17

7

23

30

12

13

5

2

2

12

2

11

4

83

67

58

53

50

47

47

39

37

37

24

18

13

11

9

2

2007 2010 2012

14

Lower Medium priced market (25 % by value / 35 % by volume)

Low priced mass market (10 % by value/ 30 % by volume)

Upper Medium

Medium priced market

Luxury RUB 14.000

Premium RUB. 7.000

RUB 200

RUB 400

RUB 500

RUB 900

RUB 1.000

RUB 2.900

RUB 3.000

RUB 6.900

5.250 mn. = 14 % 7.000 mn. = 20 % 10.500 mn. = 30 %

8.750 mn = 25 % 3.500 mn.= 10 % Open markets, China, Turkey

TCs Russia, Central Asia

Domestic Russia/China, Turkey monobrand Belarus, Ukraine, retail chains & Eastern EU discounters

Domestic & international Russia, Spain, Sweden, mono-brand and Germany, Italy, Spain, multibrand retail France, Turkey chains, department UK, Finland, USA, stores, independents, Poland distance retailers

Monobrand & multibrand Italy, Germany specialty stores, department France, stores, shop-in-shops, UK, Finland, independents Austria

Luxury monobrand stores Italy, France and multibrand boutiques Germany, Switzerland

Luxury monobrand stores Italy, and multibrand boutiques

Source/Copyright : EFTEC

6. Projection of the Market Pyramid of textile Clothing & Accessories in Russia, 2012 (Total: 35.000 mn.) Retail Market Value per Segment, Market Share, Average Retail Price Points, Category of Retail Channels, Main Supplier Countries


7. Persistant ERP, CRM & HRM Deficits in Russian independent multi-brand Retail:

lack of know-how

According to a survey conducted in January 2013 by ITMM GmbH among leading German clothing suppliers the following deficits are currently under debate:

Unsufficient systematic monitoring of sell-off results and automatic information

to Suppliers/Agents, at least monthly

Planning of seasonal pre-order budgets per brand carried in brand-portfolio

Fast replenishment to increase turn-over velocity per square meter

Correct full-cost calculation of selling-prices to control effective margins

over the four discount phases

Application of recommended retail-selling prices proposed by suppliers

Brand-oriented visual merchandising (less is more)

Window decoration as trend promotion

Capacitation of sales personnel (materials, visual quality criteria, fashion trend content, styling, wearing comfort). This is necessary to explain price-awareness of a garment.

60 percent of respondents said, that awareness on curing such deficits is either unsufficiently developed or implementation seems difficult due to various mental or financial barriers

15


16


8.1. Growth Prospects in the Russian Regions through Shopping Mall Development

According to a recent survey of ITMM GmbH, evaluation of Sell-Off Results* over the Apparel Retail Seasons S/S in the main 9 federal Districts proves a harmonization trend of retail climate, comparison in between July 2011, 2012 and 2013.

July 2011 July 2012 July 2013 Tendency

Moscow City 2,5 2,3 2,1

Moscow Region 2,4 1,9 2,9

Northwest-Region 2,6 2,4 3,0

Central Russia 3,0 2,8 3,0

Volga 3,2 2,8 2,9

South-Russia 3,3 2,6 2,5

Ural 3,1 2,4 2,7

West-Siberia 3,1 2,1 2,6

Far North/East 3,3 3,1 2,8

Reason for the balancing of apparel retail climate is the ongoing investments in Shopping and Entertainment Centers in provincial capitals and large cities of in between 500.000 and 750.000 inhabitants. The new trend is encompassing even smaller towns of a population of more than 100.000. Cities and Towns belonging to Moscow Region and Central Russia are the most favoured hot spots for new shopping center allocations.

* indicated by German school note-scores from 1,0 (very good) down to 6,0 (very bad)

17


8.2. KEY CITIES IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERETION , ATTRACTING SHOPPING CENTER INVESTMENTS

Moscow, Saint Petersburg and Yekaterinburg consume over 50% of whole apparel market:

Moscow 27% Saint Petersburg 13% Yekaterinburg - 9% of the market.

Moscow and Saint-Petersburg - currently the prime focus of retail activity and are highly saturated and competitive.

Another 11 secondary cities with population of 1 -1.5 million have been the first point of entry for retailers expanding beyond Moscow and St Petersburg.

High potential (more than 1 000 000 population)

Medium potential (more than 500 000 population)

Developing cities (more than 300 000 population)

9. Market Access Conditions for imported Apparel remaining difficult

Market entry in Russia has become more difficult over the past three years due to

Mandatory registration of economically active companies and legal entities at the Register

of the Attorney General of Russia until December 31, 2009

Foundation of the Eurasian Customs Union (EAC) between Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan in 2010

WTO Access of Russia after DUMA-ratification in August 2012.

Consolidation of Consumer Safety Rules and Regulations in one unified Technical Regulation replacing the former GOST-R Certification by the EAC Conformity Declaration and Hygiene Certification, Baby- and Childrenswear Safety Certification and Product Labeling, entering in force for Clothing-Products on July 1, 2014

Players affected by such legislative changes are:

foreign suppliers, smaller and medium size European brands (SMEs) in particular which sell directly to retail clients in the EAC-area

Fashion agencies and import distributors operating as Representative Offices but not registered as OOO (LLC, SrL, GmbH)

customers residing in the three member-states of the Customs Union which do not provide the legal status of a registered OOO (LLC, SrL, GmbH) and which are not accredited at the Attorney Generals Company Register (most of the privately owned multi-brand shops and boutiques)

18


19


9. Market Access Conditions for imported Apparel remaining difficult

The new legislative environment together with strong rising competition in the Russian apparel market forces every foreign supplier to think twice about their past, present and future contractual relationship with their customers in Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. For instance, orders, written on order-forms of the supplier brand are not legally binding purchasing contracts, according to Russian legislation.

Dominant market players like TRIUMPH INTERNATIONAL, STOCKMANN, HENNES & MAURITZ, CALZEDONIA/INTIMISSIMI all INDITEX brands such as online-providers like OTTO GROUP, KupiVIP, lamoda.ru and others operate their own OOOs, purchasing from their sources in Rubles and selling to their customers or points of sale in Rubles, all-complying with the rules & regulations applied by the Eurasian Customs Union

To challenge the competitive advantage of the big players, foreign individual medium-to-smaller apparel brands should get aware about the following alternatives:

Either to convince their agents/distributors to found a legal OOO entity and to act as contractual partner reponsible for prior conformity declaration/ certification, compliance-oriented shipping, insurance, electronically pre-registered customs clearing and import tax payments, furnishing individual retailers on the basis of pre-payments and full balance payments prior to delivery in Rubles and to convert Rubles in ot US $ for bank transfer to the supplier.

Or to take initiative to establish their own OOO in Russia, or to contract to an accredited chartered accountant/law firm with the objective to host foundation and day-to-day administrative work including accounting of an own OOO.

Or to co-operate with a technical importer providing a legally accredited OOO status, acting as a mediator of all transactions necessary to supply apparel to the final retailer for payment in Rubles. In addition to authorize technical importer to apply to the Competent Authority to obtain EAC Conformity Declarations and Hygiene Certificates, if applicable, and to take care of the necessary sampling procedure accompanying the application procedure.

20


10. Macro-Economic Review & Outlook on Russia

The output index for Russias key economic activities performed rather badly during the first four months. Growth over the first quarter decreased by 0,6 percent. In April the indicator improved at 1,9 percent increase. Reason for the weak economic development is zero output growth in agriculture over the first-quarter. In April output increased at 2,3 percent. Moreover industrial output, which rose at 0,6 percent during the first three months, picked up at a low 1,9 percent in April. Another important indicator, fixed capital investment, registered a minimal rise over the first quarter at 0,1 percent and depreciated in April by 0,7 percent. Russias consumer price index, indicator for inflation, reached a 7,1 % high at the end of the first quarter and continued to rise at 7,2 percent in April and at 7,4 percent in May against the same periods of last year. Inflation obviously drives Russians to consume on the basis of increases of real disposable money income, which rose at 5,3 percent over the first quarter and at 7,3 percent in April 2013. Retail Trade Turnover appreciated at 3,9 percent over the first three months of this year and it progressed at 4,1 % in April. The rate of unemployment continued to fall from 6 percent of population at working age in January to 5,6 percent in April. The trade balance of Russia reached a surplus of US $ 49,8 billion at the end of the first three months. In April trade balance development signaled a declining trend at a registered monthly surplus of US $ 14,2 billion. The nominal exchange rate of US $ against Ruble reached its lowest level in February 2012 at RUR 28,95 for one US $, its peak in June 2012 and ended up at RUR 30,37 in December of 2012. This rate almost matches the exchange rate valid in January 2012 figuring at RUR 30,36 against US $. The nominal exchange rate of against Ruble departed from RUR 39,97 in January 2012, depreciated to its lowest level in February 2012 at RUR 38,91 and reached its peak in June 2012 at RUR 41,32. In December 2012 the -exchange rate accounted for RUR 40,23. Given such results, conclusion is that the Russian Ruble remained extremely stable in between the beginning and the end of 2012. All rumors about a strong depreciation of the Ruble of up to 15 percent, which arose in May 2012 did not come true. This encourages more and more foreign fashion suppliers to sell their products to their Russian customers in Rubles. The outlook on the Russian economy in 2013 is reluctantly positive with an expected GDP-Growth of 3,5 percent, at real terms, which was revised downwards from 4 percent (World Bank).

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