market impacts on grid operations and utility … impacts on grid operations and utility industry...
TRANSCRIPT
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Market impacts on grid operations and utility industry
Ascend Analytics
Oct. 12, 2017 | Boulder, CO
Mark A. Gabriel
Administrator and CEO
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WAPA: Who we are
• Part of Department of Energy• Wholesale electricity supplier• Serve 40 million Americans in
the West• 15-state footprint, 1.4 million
square miles• ~700 customers• Top-10 largest transmission
utility in country
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WAPA: What we do
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Me and my perspective• 30 years in electric industry
(plus gas, oil and water)
• Eight years at Electric Power Research Institute
• Certified technology nerd
• Published author
• Utility, venture capital, private equity and consulting background
• A DOUG
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Fundamental change
The challenge for the utility of today is not only what is real but what is perceived as real.
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Change is upon us
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Operational challenges
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Market impact on pricing
Source: CAISO market price map
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Oahe generation - 2015
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Oahe generation - 2016
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Oahe generation - 2017
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Eclipse operations
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Eclipse operations
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Eclipse operations
• Replacement energy came from the following:• Interties (~3,200 MW)• Hydro (~800 MW)• Thermal (~1,600 MW)• EIM transfers (~350 MW)
• No manual intervention during the eclipse
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Eclipse operations – The Surprise
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Reliability: PJM’s perspective
• PJM: determine how different resources can provide ERS
• More work is needed to fully define, value, procure, and compensate ERS
Source: DOE Energy Policy, Office of Electricity
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Reliability: Changing “net load” shapes
• RTOs/ISOs are integrating growing levels of VRE, which shift the time of peak load
• They also introduce more hourly and intra-hourly variability
Source: DOE Energy Policy, Office of Electricity
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Retirement tranches by size, ownership
Source: DOE Energy Policy, Office of Electricity
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Economic challenge
How can we manage in aTwitter–centric world?
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And over in Germany…• Energiewende aims to eliminate coal and
nuclear as a social policy• Wholesale prices down steadily while
consumers bear the impact: 40 cents per Kwh
• Blown up the utility business• 800-900 DSOs• 4 TSOs (owned by foreign entities)• 1.8 million generators• Relies heavily on assets of other countries
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What are we doing about it?
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Shift in strategic thinking
• Broader perspective
• Data-driven decisions
• Industry impacts to customers
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Radical thoughts …
• kWh is dead
• All-you-can-eat electricity
• Time-of-purchase rates NOT time-of-use rates
• Utility is the network provider
• Markets replace IRPs
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Key takeaways
Change is everywhere.Focus on value and business excellence.
Continue delivering on mission.
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Contact/follow me
Mark A. [email protected]
wapa.gov
@westernareapowr@MarkAGabriel
Mark Gabriel
WesternAreaPower1