market drivers & outlook for duplex stainless steels to 2020 · the consumption of duplex...
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© Copyright SMR GmbH 2010http://www.smr.at
Market Drivers & Outlook for Duplex Stainless Steels to 2020
in various Nickel Price Scenarios
presented byOliver Spaltmann
Senior Market AnalystSteel & Metals Market Research
International Nickel Study Group6th October 2010Lisbon, Portugal
© Copyright SMR GmbH 2010http://www.smr.at- 2 -
Type of Research Products Steel Grades
Single Client90 %
MultiClient10 %
Long Products
50 %
FlatProducts
50 %
StainlessSteel70 %
Tool Steels,Eng. Steels,
Nickelalloys & Carbon Steels
30 %MA
RK
ETR
ESEA
RC
HLO
CAT
ION
PRO
DU
CTS
OU
R T
EAM
Enduse Focused Single-Client Research
www.smr.at
Multi-Client Projects & Stainless Steel Seminars
www.steel-intelligence.com
Conferences in association with
Shanghai, CHINA June ‘11
Munich, GERMANYSept. ‘11
O. Spaltmann B. Blitz
R.-P. Hammerle E. Pfeifer
P. MollM. Moll W. Lipp
T. Feichtner
Jo ChuChina Representative
S. Posch
B. HunterScrap Consultant
W. BullaConsultant
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Accuracy of SMR forecasts: We overstimated the duplex market growth in 1997 for 2005 by only 12%
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1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
[‘000
met
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nnes
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SMR Forecast 1996 - 2005
Real Development 1996 to 2009
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High Performance Product Family Tree ‘Made in Duplex‘
Duplex FP195 kt
Total Duplex STS 08310 kt
Duplex LP115 kt
Duplex Plate100 kt
Duplex Hot Rolled57 kt
Duplex Cold Rolled38 kt
Duplex Wire Rod10 kt
Duplex Wire6 kt
Duplex Bars & Seamless Tube
92 kt
Duplex Rebars7 kt
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Supply and Demand by Region 2008Europe & Asia consume almost 80% of the total duplex production.
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Asia14%
Europe80%
America4%
Others2%
Asia24%
Europe53%
America14%
Others9%
Duplex STS Production by Region 2008
Duplex STS Consumption by Region 2008
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Duplex Stainless Steel Demand by Region and Product FormBeside quarto plate, other product forms have become more and more important.
Duplex Stainless Steel Consumption by Product Form and Region (2008)
Total Market[ktonnes]
164
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34%
34%
25%
33%
26%
37%
30%
34%
23%
12%
13%
8%
16%
18%
32%
26%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Europe
Asia
Americas
Others
Hot Rolled Plate Other Flat Products Seamless Tube Other Long Products
74
42
28
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Who are the mills?Outokumpu & ArcelorMittal have together a market share of almost 50%. Asia is gaining share.
9945
2015
12111010109
7765443
34
Outokumpu Group
ArcelorMittal Group
Sandvik
Aceralava
Shanxi Taigang
Acerinox Group
NSSC Group
BoschGotthardsHütte
Valbruna Group
Schmolz & Bickenbach
Foroni
ALT
Cogne
Böhler Edelstahl
Italfond
Nippon Yakin
Sumitomo
Others
Outokumpu Group32%
ArcelorMittal Group15%
Sandvik7%
Aceralava5%
Shanxi Taigang4%
Acerinox Group3%
NSSC Group3%
BGH2%
Others*28%
Other19%
Producers of Duplex Stainless Steels FP + LP
Production in 2008 [‘000 metric tonnes]
Global Leaders, Market Shares in 2008Total Market: 310 ktonnes
* Valbruna Group, Schmolz & Bickenbach, Foroni , ALT, Cogne, Böhler Edelstahl, Italfond, Nippon Yakin, Sumitomo, TKN, Scana, Jindal Stainless,
POSCO Group, Baosteel Group, Aubert & Duval, Walsin, Yieh Hsing, AK Steel, OLARRA, Acroni, Ambica Steel, Carpenter, ELG Carrs, Sanyo Special
Steel, Villares Metals, Daido, G.O Carlson (Electralloy), Viraj, Chandan Steel, Aichi, GMTC, Mukand, Dongbei Special Steel, Universal Stainless
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Duplex Stainless Steels were particularly hard hit in 2009Total Duplex market decreased by 45% in 2009!
OTHER ASIA
AMERICAS
CHINA
TOTAL WORLD
EUROPE
OTHERS
FP Change `08-`09
LP Change `08-`09
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Where are Duplex Steels used Today?Top 3 FP end-use segments are: Offshore Oil & Gas, Desalination / Water Treatment as well as CPI.
26%
18%
6%
19%9%
3%
3%
16% Offshore Oil and Gas
Chemical Process Industry
Chemical Tankers / Shipbuilding
Desalination / Water Treatment
Pulp & Paper
Pollution Control
Architectural, Building & Construction
Others (Water heaters, food processing, etc.)
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48%
5%6%11%6%
2%
6%
9%
1%0,4%
6%Seamless TubesPumpsValvesFittings & FlangesSealsPropeller ShaftsRebars and meshWelding WireWire Lines (Wire rope, etc)FastenersOther Applications (Structural Parts, etc.)
Where are Duplex Steels used Today?Top 3 LP end-use segments are: Seamless Tubes, Fittings % Flanges as well as Welding Wire.
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2,0
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4,0
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LME
Stoc
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]
[in U
S$ /
lb]
Nickel Volatility will remain highGlobal Nickel - LME Nickel Price (3-month) & LME Nickel Stock Levels (Status: Sept. 28th, 2010)
Nickel Price(3-month)
Ni Price
Stocks
Upper NPI Limit: 11$/lbNPI kicks in massively (potential 500.000 tpy)
Lower NPI Limit: 6$/lbNPI Disappears
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Are Duplex Steels really providing more Price Stability?Yes, but only for Lean Duplex (not for standard duplex as shown below)
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...and lower the alloy surcharge for duplex steels (higher trigger prices for Ni, Cr, Mo)?
‐
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000 [EUR / metric tonn
e]
304
316
2205
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Duplex Stainless Steel Potential New ApplicationsThe acceptance of LDX will very much depend on the pricing strategy and availability.
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Duplex Stainless Steel Potential New ApplicationsThe consumption of duplex stainless steel in the ABC industry is becoming important.
World’s largest stainless steel roofOne of ATI’s proprietary alloys is being used for the largest stainless roof in the world. The roof is for the New Doha International Airport in Qatar. ATI Allegheny Ludlum, an ATI company, supplied 3.5 million pounds (~1,600 tonnes) of its proprietary AL 2003™ lean duplex stainless sheet to Contrarian Metal Resources, Allison Park, PA, for this project. AL 2003 lean duplex alloy is an economic alternative stainless that offers better corrosion resistance and strength compared to the more common and higher nickel-bearing Type 316L. Source: ATI
Welded pipe & tube for ABCThe supporting structure for canopies built over the Washington D.C. Metropolitan Transit Authority’s underground subway stations not only required corrosion resistance but also strength. S32003 was chosen for some of the larger structures instead of Type 316L because of its higher strength and its better resistance to chloride pitting from corrosive media such as road salt, sea mist, urban pollution and cleaning agents.
Duplex airport roof
Duplex subway roof
Duplex timber constructions
A “harmonious connection”The market launch of duplex stainless steel grades not only affects the steel industry but also the building and construction industry. Duplex and especially lean duplex 1.4362 offers interesting alternatives with roof timber constructions (snow load!), timber reconstruction measures of protected monuments, bridge constructions from wood and many other applications. The corrosion behavior of the material 1.4362 in contact with timber construction materials is comparable with that of the material 1.4571. Higher strength, weight saving potential, improved ductility as well as cost saving potential are key issues.
Architectural, Building & Construction
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Duplex Stainless Steel Potential New ApplicationsThe consumption of duplex stainless steel in the ABC industry is becoming important.
Architectural, Building & Construction
Use of stainless steel rebar for concrete reinforcement is increasing worldwide. When life cycle costs of the structures are taken into account, duplex stainless steel provesto be a viable solution due to its enhanced strength properties.
Austenitic and duplex stainless steels are used as rebar because they present an excellentcombination of corrosion resistance in concrete, high strength and good ductility.
Duplex Stainless Steel Plate & Rebar
Duplex rebar
Duplex rebar
Duplex rebar
Duplex plate & rebar
Duplex bridge
We show rebar as a growing market since it is often used in combination with stainless steel plate.
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McChesney Architects were commissioned to design two rotating wind shelters for Blackpool’s (United Kingdom) newly regenerated South Shore Promenade.
They will form part of a series of art works of the Great Promenade Show. The shelters are designed to rotate according to the prevailing wind direction to shield the occupants from the elements. Extensive testing and development work was carried out to establish the performance of the shelters, looking specifically at the accuracy according to wind direction and also the speed of rotation.
This culminated in the manufacture of a full sized working prototype. The shelter is 8 meters tall and manufactured from resilient ‘Duplex’ stainless steel. It sits on a 4 meter diameter turntable, which incorporates a damper to control the speed of rotation. This project was recently given a Civic Trust Award.
Duplex Stainless Steel Potential New ApplicationsThe consumption of duplex stainless steel in the ABC industry is becoming important.
Architectural, Building & Construction
Stainless Steel Wind Shelters
The focus of the memorial is 184 cantilevered benches built over a pool of lighted water. Each bench is engraved on the end with the name of one of the 184 people who died on board Flight 77 or in the Pentagon that day.
The bench is made of super duplex stainless steel, used in the reconstruction of the Statue of Liberty and in catapults on aircraft carriers because it is highly resistant to corrosion. That is important because the base of each bench will be submerged in a reflecting pool. The metal will be dent-proof, easy to maintain and have a life span of more than 100 years.
Duplex Stainless Steel Benches
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Duplex Stainless Steel Potential New ApplicationsBesides the known trend in chemical process equipment also the food processing industry is growing.
Industrial Usage
Duplex Stainless Steel in the Food Processing Industry
In very corrosive environments such as mustard and vinegar-making, cheeseDairies, soy sauce storage or fish-canning plants, or even for biochemical reactors it may be necessary to use one of the 'duplex' steels. These have very high levels of chromium — 22% in grade 1.4462 (2205) and 23% in grade 1.4362 (2304) — and, in the case of 1.4462, about 3% molybdenum.
They have a resistance to general corrosion similar to the austenitic stainless steels but much higher mechanical strength. They also have a much better resistance to stress corrosion cracking than austenitic stainless steels (although not quite as good a resistance as the ferritic grades) and a resistance to crevice and pitting corrosion superior to the 1.4401 (AISI 316) austenitics.
Duplex storage tanks
Duplex wine storage
Duplex biochemical reactor
Duplex storage tanks
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Duplex Stainless Steel Potential New ApplicationsDuplex stainless steels are gaining market share in a variety of applications.
Nato submarine rescue system (defense)A new submarine rescue system has been developed for use by NATO. The system is built from 5 mm grade SAF2205 stainless steel which was selected because of its strength. Weight was an important consideration in material selection as the system is normally flown to the rescue site. Due to the high strength of SAF2205, thinner gauges could be used, making the end product lighter. The 100 m3 hyperbaric complex consists of five connected chambers. Each chamber can be isolated from the others independently. Up to 72 people can be accommodated in the system. The system has been developed to the relevant industry standards. Hydro tests were run on the system and all were completed successfully. Source: ISSF
The conventional materials for such tankers, where the load is at -196 degrees Celsius, are austenitic stainless steel EN 1.4301 / ASTM 304 on the inside and painted carbon steel on the outside. (A road tanker for cryogenic materials has a double hull, and only the inner hull comes into contact with the load.) New trends wanted to find an alternative to 1.4301/304 in the outer hull as well. Lean duplex stainless steel is an alternative. However, LDX 2101 is not applicable to tank loads in temperatures below -40 degrees Celsius, so it cannot replace 1.4301/304 in the inner hull.
The dual-duplex concept combines the excellent properties of different duplex stainless steelgrades into an optimal construction. In this example, the more corrosion resistant grade 2205 isexposed to the hostile conditions. Grade 2304 is used where the environment is less corrosive.The benefits of using duplex include improved corrosion resistance and higher strength, comparedto conventional austenitic stainless steels. Duplex chambers can be built with thinner plates,resulting in less material, less beveling and welding, easier handling and lower environmentalimpact. By using the dual-duplex concept, considerable cost savings are possible. Source: ISSF
Evaporators for multi-effect distillation
Blast & Fire WallsIn order to protect living quarters and other vital areas of the platforms, blast and/or firewalls are used. Due to the combination of high mechanical properties at elevated temperatures and corrosion resistance, 316L is widely used for firewalls. Blast walls need to absorb energy rapidly and possess good resistance to buckling as well as good corrosion resistance. SAF 2304 provides these properties and with appropriate designs can offer significant weight savings and therefore reduce costs compared to 316L. Where greater corrosion resistance is required, the higher alloyed duplex grade 2205 may be used. Source: Outokumpu / ATI
LNG road tankers
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Duplex Market Growth Drivers to 2020
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New Applications - Best Case Project Base & Maintenance
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Base (8$/lb) Low Ni (6$/lb)High Ni (14 $/lb) Agressive Lean Duplex Pricing
Duplex Market Forecast in 3 Ni price scenarios (low – base – high) to 2020
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What is the industry doing to meet the increased demand?Existing leaders invest & new suppliers enter the market
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1996 2000 2015
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‘Duplex – A Sleeping Beauty …… still to be kissed awake’
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Sleeping Beauty & The Prince
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Any Questions?
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