market bias forecast april 9-13, 2007 copyright 2007, a new story foundation, inc all rights...
TRANSCRIPT
Market Bias Forecast
April 9-13, 2007
Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc
All rights reserved.
What is a Market Bias Forecast?
• In researching social instability, A New Story Foundation has developed a method for successfully forecasting market movement in several key commodities and equity indices.
• Market Bias is the composite outlook of a quantified estimate of bullish and bearish investors’ perspectives.
April 9-13, 2007 Market Bias Forecast. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc.
Market Bias
• The charts on the following pages will show the estimated bias strengths from the bullish (long) and bearish (short) perspectives.
• A positive number is good for that perspective, and a negative number is not.
• To the right of the charts is the forecast for that commodity derived from the composite bias.
April 9-13, 2007 Market Bias Forecast. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc.
April 9-13, 2007 – Summary
• Theme: Transition; A last gasp effort to keep up the optimism.
• Crude Oil on the rise again. The dollar slowly makes gains. Copper trend in transition.
• The Stock Market signals that another big downturn is right around the corner.
April 9-13, 2007 Market Bias Forecast. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc.
Stock Market
• The market starts the week mixed and heads down thru Wed.
• Dow rallies Thurs. with some follow thru Fri.
• Mixed/negative going into the following week.
April 9-13, 2007 Market Bias Forecast. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc.
Dow Jones Index
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
DJ L -1 -1 0 1 1 -3
DJ S -1 1 2 -1 0 -2
M T W Th FNext
Week
Dow Index - price
April 9-13, 2007 Market Bias Forecast. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc.
% Price Change, Cumulative - April 9-13, 2007
-1.4
-1.2
-1
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
M T W Th F NextWeek
DJ Index
U.S. Dollar Index
• Mostly positive week for the dollar, but it looks like a roller coaster ride. Hits low Tue., high Thur.
• Moderately positive bias going into next week.
April 9-13, 2007 Market Bias Forecast. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc.
US Dollar Index
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
US Dollar L 2 -2 -1 2 -1 3
US Dollar S 0.5 1.0 -3.0 0.0 0.5 0.0
M T W Th FNext
Week
U.S. Dollar Index - price
April 9-13, 2007 Market Bias Forecast. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc.
% Price Change, Cumulative - April 9-13, 2007
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
M T W Th F NextWeek
US Dollar
Crude Oil
• Trend turning up again with slight dip on Tue., rally on Wed. Some losses Thur and Friday.
• Mixed / negative bias going into next week.
April 9-13, 2007 Market Bias Forecast. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc.
Crude Oil
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Crude Oil L 1 1 2 1 -3 2
Crude Oil S -1 3 -2 2 -1 3
M T W Th FNext
Week
Crude Oil - price
April 9-13, 2007 Market Bias Forecast. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc.
% Price Change, Cumulative - April 9-13, 2007
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
M T W Th F NextWeek
Crude Oil
Copper
• Starts the week trying to turn down, but does an about face mid-week with a big rally on Thursday.
• Turns down Friday and into next week.
April 9-13, 2007 Market Bias Forecast. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc.
Copper
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Copper L -1 1 -2 2 -2 -3
Copper S 0.5 1.5 -3.0 -2.0 1.0 1.0
M T W Th FNext
Week
Copper - price
April 9-13, 2007 Market Bias Forecast. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc.
% Price Change, Cumulative - April 9-13, 2007
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
M T W Th F NextWeek
Copper
Market Bias Summary - volatility
April 9-13, 2007 Market Bias Forecast. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc.
Tue largest dollar down day, Wed big Crude rally, Thur big Copper rally.
Rate of Price Change - April 9-13, 2007
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
M T W Th F Next Week
Crude Oil DJ Index Copper US Dollar
Market Bias Summary - price
April 9-13, 2007 Market Bias Forecast. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc.
Crude and Copper bottom Tuesday. Crude peaks Wed, Copper Thur.
% Price Change, Cumulative - April 9-13, 2007
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
M T W Th F NextWeek
Crude Oil Copper
Market Bias Summary - price
April 9-13, 2007 Market Bias Forecast. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc.
Dollar struggles to climb; Dow struggles to hold onto last week’s gains.
% Price Change, Cumulative - April 9-13, 2007
-1.4-1.2
-1-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.2
00.20.40.6
M T W Th F NextWeek
DJ Index US Dollar
Remarks – Stock Market Warning!
• Around February 21, 2007 there were strong signals to exit stock market positions. 500 point Dow drop soon followed.
• Based on this week’s forecast, outlook for next week, and our monthly forecast for April we see this week as a 2nd chance for a LAST CHANCE TO GET OUT before serious losses.
Disclaimer
A New Story Foundation is not a brokerage firm nor are we professional investment advisors. Please consult the appropriate person/firm for specific investment advice.
Should you find our forecasts beneficial please consider supporting our research. Our sole source of funding is donations and grants from people like you. More information can be found on our website at http://anewstory.org.
Have a great week!