mark demaria noaa/nws/ncep/national hurricane center jason sippel … · 2019-05-09 · mark...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Mark DeMaria NOAA/NWS/NCEP/National Hurricane Center Jason Sippel … · 2019-05-09 · Mark DeMaria – NOAA/NWS/NCEP/National Hurricane Center Jason Sippel – NOAA/OAR/AOML Hurricane](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022060418/5f155db147fe587f8c77c523/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
MarkDeMaria–NOAA/NWS/NCEP/NationalHurricaneCenterJasonSippel–NOAA/OAR/AOMLHurricaneResearchDivision
TheJHTisfundedbytheUSWeatherResearchPrograminNOAA/OAR'sOfficeofWeatherandAirQuality
73rdInterdepartmentalHurricaneConference
![Page 2: Mark DeMaria NOAA/NWS/NCEP/National Hurricane Center Jason Sippel … · 2019-05-09 · Mark DeMaria – NOAA/NWS/NCEP/National Hurricane Center Jason Sippel – NOAA/OAR/AOML Hurricane](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022060418/5f155db147fe587f8c77c523/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
• OurMission: transfer
![Page 3: Mark DeMaria NOAA/NWS/NCEP/National Hurricane Center Jason Sippel … · 2019-05-09 · Mark DeMaria – NOAA/NWS/NCEP/National Hurricane Center Jason Sippel – NOAA/OAR/AOML Hurricane](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022060418/5f155db147fe587f8c77c523/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
3
Ourprocess
• CallforProposals–draftedanddisseminated(bi-annually)
• CurrentcallisforthreeyearsinconjunctionwithHWT,HMT
• PrincipalInvestigatorsapplyforfundingthroughNOAA
• SevenmemberSteeringCommitteeratesallproposals
• Fundedprojectsaretestedduring1to3*hurricaneseasonsinconjunctionwithNHCpointsofcontact
• Attheproject’send,eachisevaluatedbyNHCandJHTstaff
• ImplementationofsuccessfulprojectsisthencarriedoutbyNHC
staff/PIs
![Page 4: Mark DeMaria NOAA/NWS/NCEP/National Hurricane Center Jason Sippel … · 2019-05-09 · Mark DeMaria – NOAA/NWS/NCEP/National Hurricane Center Jason Sippel – NOAA/OAR/AOML Hurricane](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022060418/5f155db147fe587f8c77c523/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
• ForecastorAnalysisBenefit:
• Efficiency:
• Compatibility:
• Sustainability:
![Page 5: Mark DeMaria NOAA/NWS/NCEP/National Hurricane Center Jason Sippel … · 2019-05-09 · Mark DeMaria – NOAA/NWS/NCEP/National Hurricane Center Jason Sippel – NOAA/OAR/AOML Hurricane](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022060418/5f155db147fe587f8c77c523/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
5
AdministrativeChanges
• JHTDirector(ChrisLandsea)becameNHCTropicalAnalysisandForecastBranchChiefMay2018• MarkDeMaria(NHCTechnologyandScienceBranchChief)actingJHTDirector
• JasonSippeltakingonlargerrole• NewNHCScienceandOperationsOffice(SOO)by2019HurricaneSeason
• LatestJHTannouncementofopportunity• CombinedwithHWTandHMT• LOIsreceivedNov2018• Fullproposalsunderevaluationbysteeringcommittee• Projectperiodextendedto3years
![Page 6: Mark DeMaria NOAA/NWS/NCEP/National Hurricane Center Jason Sippel … · 2019-05-09 · Mark DeMaria – NOAA/NWS/NCEP/National Hurricane Center Jason Sippel – NOAA/OAR/AOML Hurricane](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022060418/5f155db147fe587f8c77c523/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
6
JHT:Bythenumbers
• 81projectssupportedinrounds1-7(FY01-FY15)• 54Acceptedforoperationalimplementation• 23notaccepted• 4deferred
• 8projectsinround8(FY15-17)• 1completed,accepted• 7requestedno-costextensions,evaluationinprogress
• 6projectsinround9(FY17-19)• RFPoutforround10(FY19-21)
![Page 7: Mark DeMaria NOAA/NWS/NCEP/National Hurricane Center Jason Sippel … · 2019-05-09 · Mark DeMaria – NOAA/NWS/NCEP/National Hurricane Center Jason Sippel – NOAA/OAR/AOML Hurricane](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022060418/5f155db147fe587f8c77c523/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
7
Round1-7Accepted/DeferredProjects
![Page 8: Mark DeMaria NOAA/NWS/NCEP/National Hurricane Center Jason Sippel … · 2019-05-09 · Mark DeMaria – NOAA/NWS/NCEP/National Hurricane Center Jason Sippel – NOAA/OAR/AOML Hurricane](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022060418/5f155db147fe587f8c77c523/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
New JHT Projects - FY17-19: 9th round
ProjectTitle PrincipalInvestigator(s)
ImprovementstoOperationalStatisticalTropicalCycloneIntensityForecastModelsUsingWindStructureandEyePredictors
GalinaChirokova(CSU/CIRA),JohnKaplan(AOML/HRD)
Ensemble-basedPre-genesisWatchesandWarningsforAtlanticandNorthPacificTropicalCyclones
RussElsberry(UC-CS)
ImprovementsandExtensionstoanExistingProbabilisticTCGenesisForecastToolUsingandEnsembleofGlobalModels
BobHart(FSU),DanHalperin(Embry-Riddle)
EstimationofTropicalCycloneIntensityUsingSatellitePassiveMicrowaveObservations
HaiyanJiang(FloridaIntlUniv.)
TransitionofMachine-LearningBasedRapidIntensificationForecaststoOperations
AndrewMercerandKimberlyWood(MSU)
EvolutionaryProgrammingforProbabilisticTropicalCycloneIntensityForecast
PaulRoebberandClarkEvans(UW-Milwaukee)
![Page 9: Mark DeMaria NOAA/NWS/NCEP/National Hurricane Center Jason Sippel … · 2019-05-09 · Mark DeMaria – NOAA/NWS/NCEP/National Hurricane Center Jason Sippel – NOAA/OAR/AOML Hurricane](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022060418/5f155db147fe587f8c77c523/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
New JHT Project Highlights FV3 vs. GFS TC Genesis probability: Hart/Halperin
Estimating TC intensity with PMW obs: Zhang
Improving SHIPS
forecasts with eye
detection: Chirokova
Improving RI fcst with machine learning: Mercer
![Page 10: Mark DeMaria NOAA/NWS/NCEP/National Hurricane Center Jason Sippel … · 2019-05-09 · Mark DeMaria – NOAA/NWS/NCEP/National Hurricane Center Jason Sippel – NOAA/OAR/AOML Hurricane](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022060418/5f155db147fe587f8c77c523/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
10
LessonedLearnedforSuccessfulR2O
• EarlycoordinationwithprojectPIs• DescribeNHC’soperationalcomputerenvironment• NHCforecastcycleandtimeconstraints
• Real-timedemonstrationsenlightening• Twocategoriesofsuccessfulprojects
1. Majornewcapabilities• Examples:2003TCRapidIntensificationIndex2007Windspeedprobabilitymodel2015Hart/HalperinTCgenesisprobabilities
2. UsedcompatiblesoftwareortestedinparalleloperationalITenvironment
• Examples:2007AddGOESandoceanheatcontentpredictorstostatisticalmodels2013Extended-rangebaselinetrack/intensitymodels2017NRLTCsatelliteproductwebpageenhancements
![Page 11: Mark DeMaria NOAA/NWS/NCEP/National Hurricane Center Jason Sippel … · 2019-05-09 · Mark DeMaria – NOAA/NWS/NCEP/National Hurricane Center Jason Sippel – NOAA/OAR/AOML Hurricane](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022060418/5f155db147fe587f8c77c523/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
11
StatusofRound1-7Projects
ByRoundTotalRounds1-7
![Page 12: Mark DeMaria NOAA/NWS/NCEP/National Hurricane Center Jason Sippel … · 2019-05-09 · Mark DeMaria – NOAA/NWS/NCEP/National Hurricane Center Jason Sippel – NOAA/OAR/AOML Hurricane](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022060418/5f155db147fe587f8c77c523/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
12
The Joint Hurricane Testbed
www.nhc.noaa.gov/jht
Rappaportet.al.,2012-BAMS
![Page 13: Mark DeMaria NOAA/NWS/NCEP/National Hurricane Center Jason Sippel … · 2019-05-09 · Mark DeMaria – NOAA/NWS/NCEP/National Hurricane Center Jason Sippel – NOAA/OAR/AOML Hurricane](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022060418/5f155db147fe587f8c77c523/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
MarkDeMaria–NOAA/NWS/NCEP/NationalHurricaneCenterJasonSippel–NOAA/OAR/AOMLHurricaneResearchDivision
TheJHTisfundedbytheUSWeatherResearchPrograminNOAA/OAR'sOfficeofWeatherandAirQuality
73rdInterdepartmentalHurricaneConference